00:00With market pricing for December cut dropping to 30 percent, then climbing above 65 percent, now settling at around 63 percent, what sounds appropriate to you?
00:08Yeah, look, market pricing is basically a coin toss over the last month.
00:13I think my takeaway from the data that's coming so far is that the upside risks to the unemployment story have materially increased, and that's probably good enough to move in December.
00:25You see the Fed participants at the moment trying out different versions of this narrative to see what sticks.
00:33I expect them to coalesce around the decision.
00:36I think the odds slightly favor a cut still in the December meeting.
00:40How much can you trust the statement of economic projections or the summary of economic projections that will come out in the December FOMC meeting when they're working with as little data as everyone else?
00:51Yeah, it's going to be very, very difficult to extrapolate that into 2026.
00:57As, you know, Goolsby mentioned, the picture for 2026 is quite unclear.
01:03From my perspective, I think the Fed needs to come up with a strategy.
01:06We had a pretty clear strategy for starting these cuts back in September.
01:10We had a very clear strategy for executing cuts last year.
01:14There isn't a very clear strategy going into next year.
01:17I think that's why you see market angst around every single data point right now.
01:21Yeah, the strategy, if anything, Deb, seems to be we're going to get a whole new group of people at the Federal Reserve in 2026.
01:28There's going to be a changeover, a makeover, and personnel determines policy.
01:34Absolutely.
01:34Right now, if you look at kind of a mix of voting participants to include the regional presidents, you're split right down the line.
01:42You have kind of, you know, a middle portion that includes Chair Powell that's more centrist in nature.
01:47You have, you know, some of the President Trump nominees that are on the more dovish side.
01:54And then you have a contingency from a hawkish presidency standpoint that are on the far right side of that chart.
02:00So it maybe helps explain some of the anxiety that seemed to be clearly present in the press conference after the October meeting by Chair Powell.
02:14And certainly in reading the minutes that were released this week from that meeting, there seems to have been a lot of dispersion from a comment standpoint.
02:23I think, though, what we have seen, maybe not in the last two days, but leading up to the employment report this week,
02:31were people coalescing around, you know, sort of the this is not a foregone conclusion for the for December rate cut, you know, statement from Powell.
02:42And maybe we're seeing a little bit of a back off from that, you know, since, you know, since the the most recent information.
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