- 2 days ago
في لقاء خاص مع «إرم بزنس»، كشف رئيس استراتيجية السلع في «ساكسو بنك» أولي هانسن رؤيته للأسواق، الذهب يعيش أقوى عام منذ السبعينيات بارتفاع يفوق 50% واتجاهه الصاعد مستمر والنفط مرشّح ليكون نجم 2026 مع تراجع الطاقة الاحتياطية وضعف الاستثمارات.
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00:00ترجمة نانسيلاً
00:30and also some of the key crop markets have started to recover.
00:35So, based on that, it could indicate that we are seeing
00:38a bit more of a broad rally.
00:41Quite a bit of the increase so far this year
00:43has obviously been driven by the precious metals,
00:46so basically investment demand.
00:47So, not so much economic growth focus,
00:50but more a safe haven focus.
00:53But as we move into 26,
00:55I think there are signs that there are bottlenecks
00:57emerging in some of these key commodities.
01:00نحن نبقاد أنها تبدأ في الأشياء منها مثل الشركاتية حرافة قدرية
01:06والعذرة التي تبدأ فيها القدر الامت الأمريبية
01:09الذي يمكنك على الوقت تقنيه في الأسراب
01:13عبر اثناء الشيخات أعزمة نظام الحركات
01:18فإن أعجب أن تحلقاً بعض الأشياء في الوقت
01:22الذي يمكنك إمتاع الموطولة
01:26But we're facing another space, maybe not a super cycle
01:29but at least a cycle where we're seeing commodity prices do well
01:33and where they can outperform other asset classes.
01:39Well first and foremost, I would say still the metals sector
01:43simply because there is growing demand for key metals
01:47towards electrification.
01:49We know that is gathering momentum.
01:51There's a lot of focus on AI right now.
01:53Obviously some concerns about the bubble
01:55But there is a massive build-out of capacities for data production.
01:59And that requires not only copper, but also steel, concrete and aluminium.
02:05So we're seeing that trend continuing.
02:09At the same time, the world is still a bit of a flux with a lot of debt,
02:13especially in places like the U.S., which is worrying investors
02:16that they're seeking some protection in some of the investment metals.
02:21So generally, commodities where supply is relatively tight
02:24and that for now is primarily a metal story,
02:28but potentially over time could also become an energy story.
02:32We're seeing right now diesel and gasoline somewhat impacted by the sanctions,
02:38U.S. sanctions against Russia.
02:40So we regard that as temporary, but nevertheless,
02:43it just highlights the predicament a market can come into
02:48if we do see some disruptions.
02:50And that's when it comes to commodities.
02:52These are all physical commodities that need to be taken out of the ground,
02:57that needs to be taken in from the fields,
02:59and any disruption can have an impact on prices.
03:03So looking ahead, I think the theme that we've seen this year
03:07will extend into 2026.
03:10And I think at the same time, we have an energy-hungry world,
03:16hungry for energy, hungry for power.
03:19And that basically means that the inputs to produce this energy
03:24and produce this power, which is crude oil and it's natural gas,
03:29I see those prices being supported into 2026
03:32once we get through this so-called glut that the market is focusing on right now.
03:37Well, the interesting thing there is obviously that the market is somewhat concerned
03:44that the economic data will show weakness.
03:47But at the same time, then economic weakness will lead to heightened expectations for rate cuts,
03:53which then could underpin some of the more speculative assets.
03:56So it's going to be an interesting balancing act we're going to see here.
04:02But my view is that the economic impact of the tariffs that we have seen being introduced this year
04:10is only really now starting to be felt.
04:13We're seeing that through high unemployment.
04:14We're also seeing that through prices being relatively sticky.
04:18So inflation being relatively sticky.
04:21So with that in mind, I think we are going to see an end of year
04:24where the market will refocus their attention to a rate cut in December,
04:29even though just last week the chance of that was reduced down to a coin flip,
04:34basically a 50-50 chance of a rate cut.
04:37But I think that will come back,
04:39depending on obviously whether we get all the important data.
04:42But I think the employment data will probably be the most important part
04:46because that's really where we're also from,
04:49as considering we've got midterm election next year,
04:51if we start to see unemployment rise,
04:53that's obviously something that the government wants to try to arrest.
04:57And that could have an impact on the initiatives
05:00that potentially could also have a positive impact on the growth-dependent commodities.
05:08That is a very good question
05:09because in theory, higher for longer interest rates
05:13should have a negative impact, especially on investment metals
05:17since they don't pay a dividend or don't pay a coupon.
05:20But what we have seen this year
05:22and also the back end of last year
05:24is that investors are starting to price in the prospects of lower interest rates.
05:29So even though we still have interest rates in the U.S.,
05:32that means that if you are buying gold,
05:34for instance, you're having a negative carry,
05:36so it actually costs you money to buy gold
05:39relatively to bonds or equities where you get a dividend.
05:44So in theory, it should have been negative, but it hasn't.
05:48And that's really a reflection of other sources of demand
05:52that has come into the market,
05:53especially something like central banks,
05:54which are not really that interest rate sensitive.
05:57They're just basically looking to diversify their holdings,
06:00and that has been benefiting gold.
06:03If you look at the energy market,
06:04obviously the cost of new projects,
06:08the new investments has been to a certain extent impacted
06:13by a higher funding cost.
06:15And that is critical going forward
06:17because as we now see both from OPEC and the IEA,
06:22demand for energy will continue to rise in the coming years,
06:25perhaps even as far as 2050.
06:27and that means that the investment,
06:31the need for investment to go in
06:33to find not only the increase in demand,
06:35but also the depletion of oil,
06:38especially on an annual basis,
06:40that requires massive amount of investments.
06:43And they will, to a certain extent,
06:44be impacted by the funding cost.
06:47And as long as we have this,
06:48so with that,
06:50if we start to see funding costs come further down,
06:52that could have a positive impact
06:54on the investment appetite.
06:55But for now,
06:57it has been, to a certain extent,
06:58been holding back
06:59some of the much-needed investment
07:01that is required to ensure
07:02that we have a stable supply of energy in the future.
07:07It's very, it's obviously tricky
07:09because we've seen a gold price
07:11that's already up more than 50% in a year.
07:14It's the strongest year since the 1970s.
07:16And we say,
07:17then we have other metals like silver and platinum
07:19doing even better than that.
07:21So building a further foundation
07:23on back of already strong increases
07:25is obviously something
07:26that makes people a little bit,
07:28investors a little bit nervous.
07:30But I think overall,
07:31we have to look at the reasons
07:32why gold is up here.
07:33Why is silver up here?
07:34Why is platinum up here?
07:36It is a demand from investors
07:38around the world
07:39to have tangible assets,
07:40things that cannot be deflated away
07:42like currencies can over time.
07:45And I think as long as the reasons
07:47for the demand we've seen from central banks,
07:50the worries about the debt situation
07:52in major economies,
07:54the geopolitical risks that we have,
07:56the deglobalization we have in the world,
07:59as long as we see that,
08:01I see no reason why metals
08:02cannot continue to attract demand
08:04from investors,
08:05not only in Asia,
08:06which has been the big engine,
08:08but also increasingly in the last year or so
08:10from investors in the West.
08:12And with that in mind,
08:13with gold now trading above 4,000,
08:15I'm a little bit more conservative.
08:17I think no one,
08:18obviously no one would have expected
08:20to rally 50% in the year.
08:21So my outlook for next year
08:23is a little bit more conservative,
08:24but still a very,
08:25very tidy increase
08:27up towards the 5,000 mark.
08:29It's obviously very difficult
08:30to put any price target out
08:32when you've seen a year like this,
08:34where it really all depends on right now,
08:37how long this consolidation period can last.
08:39I think that the consolidation
08:41that followed the record high
08:43back in May lasted four months.
08:44so I'll still be surprised
08:46if we see any breakout in gold
08:47before year end.
08:49I think the move towards 5,000
08:50is more than one we'll see next year.
08:53We also have to remember
08:54we're going to get a new chairman
08:55at the FOMC,
08:56the Federal Reserve,
08:58and he's going to be politically appointed
08:59and probably one
09:00that will be arguing
09:02for lower interest rates,
09:04which could not only support gold,
09:06but also raise some concerns
09:08about the debt situation even further.
09:09So with that in mind,
09:115,000 target for gold
09:12in the next 12 months.
09:16Yes, I think right now
09:18we are in a consolidation period.
09:20The market is,
09:21we are getting some of the,
09:23there's been a lot of speculation
09:25obviously as well
09:25in the gold market
09:26because it's been rallying
09:27as far as it has,
09:28but we're seeing some of that come out.
09:30so the positioning is coming down
09:31to a relatively more manageable level,
09:34which also means that
09:35when we get the next trigger,
09:36that could be a renewed focus
09:38on the rate cut,
09:39that could be other developments
09:41that calls for alternative investments.
09:45It could be,
09:46I'm not going to call it a bubble in the AI,
09:48I'll call it a top in the AI sector
09:49because that's like trying to catch a knife here.
09:53But sooner or later,
09:55there will be some reality check
09:56in the stock market as well.
09:57and that time,
09:59that's where investors will look for
10:01at least to diversify their investments
10:03away from being so overweight
10:04in the AI,
10:06in the tech sector.
10:07And that could also be a driver.
10:09But for now,
10:10consolidation,
10:11which I think is a healthy thing.
10:12And the question is really
10:14whether it's going to last two months
10:15or four months
10:15or how long it's going to wait
10:17until we get the next trigger.
10:18But I think the next trigger
10:19will be one that drives prices higher again.
10:25I think the institutional buying
10:26has really only just started.
10:29Not so much from investors in Asia
10:32because that's a demand
10:33that has been very strong
10:34for a number of years.
10:36But it's really only in the last year
10:37that we've seen,
10:38if you look at something like demand
10:40for ETFs,
10:41by ETFs registered here in the West,
10:43that the demand has started to come back.
10:46And that has to a certain extent
10:47been driven by the lowering
10:49or the start of the new period
10:52of lower interest rates in the US.
10:53and even though recently
10:55we saw a correction in the gold price,
10:57there wasn't much selling,
10:58not much net selling
10:59coming into the ETF market.
11:01So I think the institutional side
11:04will continue to accumulate.
11:06Many come from holding 0%
11:08in gold and precious metals.
11:10And they obviously right now
11:11under pressure from their investors
11:12to increase that share.
11:15And if we see that,
11:16and that doesn't take that,
11:17you can't do that overnight.
11:19It's like a super tanker.
11:20You cannot turn it around
11:21or stop it
11:21or make big changes
11:24in the short period of time.
11:25This will be built up over time.
11:27So I think there is
11:27this underlying demand
11:29coming into
11:30from institutional investors.
11:32Retail is a little bit more
11:33on our say on the fence right now,
11:35because if you are a retail investor,
11:38you would ideally like to see
11:40a lower price
11:41because trying to buy
11:42near record high
11:43is always difficult.
11:45So with that in mind,
11:46we probably either need to see
11:47a bit more of a correction
11:49or actually move to a new high
11:51because if you get into a new high,
11:53then there will just be this,
11:54well, I have to be involved
11:56and then we'll see
11:56fresh buying come in.
11:57So institutional investors
11:59right now are probably
12:00the main driver
12:00together with central banks
12:01and retail are just sitting
12:03a little bit on the fence
12:04waiting to see
12:04where the price action takes us.
12:09I'll say yes to both
12:10because silver enjoys,
12:12as you say,
12:13both the industrial demand
12:14and that's into key technologies
12:17which are part of the electrification
12:19of the world and the future.
12:21So that demand is likely
12:23to remain strong
12:24in the coming years.
12:26And then you have
12:26the safe haven aspect
12:29and with that,
12:30you obviously have to keep
12:31an eye on gold prices.
12:33And what we saw earlier this year
12:34was that gold basically came,
12:37gold rallied while silver
12:39and to a certain extent
12:39also platinum was struggling.
12:41and at the point
12:43where we reached a record high
12:44in gold back in May
12:45to 3,500,
12:48investors was basically saying,
12:49well, this is a very high level.
12:50Are there other alternatives
12:51that we could look at?
12:52And that's where silver
12:53really started to attract
12:55renewed demand from investors
12:57and the ratio relative to gold
13:00has started to come down.
13:02Historically,
13:02it's still trading relatively cheap.
13:05If you really go
13:06widen out the spectrum,
13:08look at the last 20, 30 years,
13:09then silver is still relatively cheap
13:11compared with gold.
13:13And that basically,
13:14so if you combine that
13:15with the industrial demand
13:16and we combine that
13:17with silver being in a deficit,
13:19basically,
13:20there's less silver mined
13:22that are actually being consumed.
13:24That means that
13:25the above ground inventory levels
13:26continues to be eroded.
13:29And that seems to be a process
13:31that will continue
13:32in the coming years.
13:34And that is really the foundation
13:35for a rally in the market
13:37when you have tight fundamentals
13:38or tight supply
13:39at the same time
13:40as you have structural demand.
13:42Then obviously,
13:43there's only one thing
13:43that can give
13:44and that's the price
13:45in terms of higher prices.
13:47We've seen that in Bitcoin now
13:48for a number of years
13:49because of a limited amount
13:50of supply
13:50and the increased amount
13:52of investors
13:52who wanted to be involved.
13:54And I think with that in mind,
13:55if gold goes to 5,000 next year,
13:59we could potentially see silver
14:00on a percentage basis
14:01do better than gold.
14:02The move above is most certainly
14:07was a big target.
14:09Now we have reached the $50
14:11and that basically means
14:13it's just consolidating somewhat here.
14:15But if you look at the gold-silver ratio
14:18where basically it's been trading
14:20around the 80 ounces of gold,
14:23silver to one ounce of gold,
14:24historically,
14:25that comes from a level below 70
14:28or even lower than that.
14:29So with that in mind,
14:31I could see silver potentially
14:35outperform gold by 10% next year.
14:40And with that in mind,
14:41the $50 was a technical
14:43and just a psychological level.
14:45Now we have taken it out
14:46and that basically means
14:47that the market will start
14:49to focus on next big round numbers
14:52and that obviously could be 100,
14:54but that's not for me to say
14:56that we're going to get there
14:57anytime soon.
14:57but just generally,
15:00the tight supply in silver
15:01and the underlying demand for gold
15:03makes me believe
15:04that silver will perform
15:06in line with gold
15:07and probably even better
15:09than gold next year.
15:13In the near term,
15:14the market is really...
15:16On the surface,
15:17it looks like there's nothing going on
15:19because the crude oil market
15:20has been in a very stable,
15:22relatively tight range
15:23for a while now.
15:25and I do note
15:26that this has been a year
15:27where OPEC plus
15:28has increased production,
15:30where the global economic outlook
15:32has been a little bit challenged
15:34by the tariff war.
15:36But despite of this,
15:37crude oil is holding up,
15:39I would say,
15:39extremely well.
15:41We are stuck here
15:42in the mid-60s
15:43right now for Brent.
15:44I think the glut
15:46that the market
15:47is focusing so much on
15:48is probably not going to be
15:50as dramatic
15:51as the market
15:52is trying to price in.
15:53So that means a risk of a...
15:56There is a risk
15:56in the coming months,
15:57in the next three to six months,
15:59that we could potentially see
16:00a price temporary trade
16:02below 60.
16:03But I think that is not
16:05the stable price
16:09for the oil market
16:10simply because
16:11with demand continuing
16:13to be on the rise,
16:15with depletion rates
16:16being in the region
16:18of six to seven million barrels
16:19a day per year,
16:20that needs to be found
16:21just to maintain
16:22stable production.
16:24I think these basically
16:25stack up against...
16:27or actually underpin
16:28prices for oil.
16:30So while we see
16:31the price
16:31is probably staying
16:33stuck here in the 60s
16:34in the winter months,
16:36in the coming
16:36three to four months,
16:38I see as we move
16:39deeper into 26
16:40that crude oil,
16:42while gold and silver
16:43was the big story
16:44of 2025,
16:45potentially crude oil
16:46could be the story
16:47of 26
16:48as we move
16:49into the second half
16:50because the market
16:50will eventually
16:52start to refocus
16:53on what is
16:54the actual cost
16:55of what cost
16:56is high enough
16:58to incentivize
16:59the production
17:00that is going
17:00to be needed
17:01and the investment
17:02that are going
17:02to be needed
17:03in the coming years.
17:04We also have to
17:05keep in mind
17:05as Saudi Arabia
17:07and UAE
17:07and others
17:08reduces their...
17:09or increase
17:10their production,
17:11their spare capacity
17:12comes down.
17:13And when you have
17:14a lower spare capacity,
17:16then you also
17:17increase the risk
17:18of a sudden spike
17:20if there is
17:20a supply disruption.
17:22So with that in mind,
17:22can we reach $100?
17:25If we see...
17:26We just saw a scare
17:27last week
17:27with Russia.
17:28There was an attack
17:29on one of the main
17:30shipping ports
17:30in the Black Sea area.
17:32If that had become
17:33a full disruption,
17:35that would be
17:35more than 2%
17:36of global supply.
17:37That would have
17:38sent prices,
17:39in my mind,
17:40up into the 80s,
17:41perhaps into the 90s.
17:43But over time,
17:44whether $100
17:45can be achieved,
17:46I think it's possible,
17:47but that would be
17:48in the years to come
17:50because we have
17:51to look at crude
17:52on a 65
17:52and saying
17:53from a historical perspective,
17:55it is really cheap
17:56compared to how
17:57other commodities
17:58and how other sources
18:00of energy
18:01has performed
18:01in recent years.
18:03So with that in mind,
18:04I don't see the...
18:05I don't rule out
18:06that we could reach 100,
18:07but I don't see it
18:08any time soon.
18:09Probably more next year
18:10that we can move
18:11from a 60s range
18:12to the 70s,
18:13low 80s range.
18:14Yeah.
18:15All right.
18:16All right.
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18:42All right.
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