00:00We've just come off this conversation with Carmen where people are deciding that they would perhaps sell off some of their previous winners and certainly ones that have taken on a lot of debt.
00:07Is that something you're seeing?
00:10Yes, I think we are seeing that investors are becoming more selective over where they want to invest as far as the AI trade is concerned.
00:20I mean, previously it had just sort of been invest in AI and anything that really mentioned AI seemed to be a winner.
00:26But I think as we're sort of seeing this AI trade mature, investors are taking their time to become more selective, questioning how this is going to be monetized, what can actually be, how it will be used, rather than just jumping on the AI trade more broadly.
00:45Should they be questioning NVIDIA?
00:49That's a great question.
00:50I mean, you know, it's very much in focus for our clients.
00:53This is, you know, one of the key earnings or the key earning, I would say, each season.
00:59And obviously, we have seen, you know, the likes of SoftBank, Peter Thiel selling out entirely of their NVIDIA holdings.
01:05I do think there is that this is a litmus test.
01:08You know, can the chipmaker continue powering the AI rally that has really, you know, defined the broader market tech rally this year?
01:16I think there are some reasons to be positive that, you know, we heard from CEO Huang that in October that there's $400 billion worth of orders for chips that are very much at the heart of this AI boom.
01:29So that is a strong order book.
01:31But obviously, at the same time, we have seen really impressive rally in this share price.
01:37We know that growth is strong, but slowing.
01:42But I think broadly speaking, I think it would be fair to say that there is potential for that AI rally to still continue to run further.
01:49There are concerns, obviously, about that circular deals, around $1 trillion in circular deals that we've been seeing.
01:55I think that's what the market's nervous about.
01:57So, you know, any insight into that, I think, would be helpful.
02:00What about the concentration that comes with NVIDIA?
02:03I think it was last earnings report about 39% of orders are coming from just two key hyperscalers.
02:08Is that something that people are worrying about, not only the circularity of deals, but the over-reliance on just so few players?
02:15Yeah, I think that is going to be, again, you know, remaining a point of concern.
02:20As you mentioned, if you've got sort of, you know, fewer customers or fewer big clients, then obviously there is a risk that is attached to that.
02:28So, you know, any broadening out of that is going to be good news as far as the stock is concerned.
02:34And obviously, you know, we are seeing that the market is nervous.
02:37And I think we do see this every time we come to NVIDIA earnings in recent quarters, that there is a little bit of nervousness surrounding the numbers.
02:46And I think that does come with reason.
02:47You can't just jump blindly into a trade.
02:50But I think there is still reason to be positive.
02:53Can you balance, therefore, just the level of rationality in the market right now and whether you give credence to the worries over a bubble or whether actually this is just how growth is likely to continue?
03:07Yeah, do you know, I mean, as you point out, there have been so many discussions surrounding are we in bubble territory comparisons to the dot-com era.
03:16But, you know, I think that the market is still acting rationally.
03:21It is still questioning whether, you know, these are valuations which are acceptable.
03:29And I think that does point to a market which, as I said, is acting rationally, which does go against that bubble narrative.
03:37But I think, you know, we do need to be moving this forward as well and questioning, you know, how will this be monetized?
03:45Will demand actually be met?
03:46You know, what are the strains that could appear?
03:49So I think that is the signs that the market is asking the right questions.
03:54They're asking those questions around the equity side.
03:56What about the bond market offerings that we're seeing coming thick and fast?
03:59How much are you seeing just a desire to gain AI exposure from names like an Amazon that hasn't sold dollar-dominated debt in three years?
04:08Yeah, so this is really interesting.
04:10And I think it does point to this sort of almost insatiable demand.
04:16And I think that, you know, there are reasons to be cautious.
04:20And again, you know, going back to that idea of making sure you question investments before jumping in is always a good idea.
04:27And I think, you know, creating the bond sort of aspect of this trade is quite an interesting take on it and one that we'll be following closely.
04:37Any calls on crypto?
04:41Oh, do you know, crypto is a really interesting one at the moment.
04:44You know, I think we saw that rejection last week about 107 level.
04:48But I think, you know, the fact that we've taken out some really key technical levels,
04:52the 50-week SMA was one that I was watching very closely.
04:56Anyway, we're seeing that institutional demand has really faded.
05:02Long-term sellers, long-term holders are selling.
05:04So, I think there's a lot of reason to be cautious.
05:08That said, you know, I think the levels that we're holding around at the moment, that sort of 93,000,
05:13I think as long as that holds, then there could be potential if we see institutional demand return for a move higher.
05:21But I think, you know, the market still feels a bit fragile after that massive liquidation event in early October,
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