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00:00Monday night football, the over typically gets love here as well
00:03as we take a look at the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Las Vegas Raiders
00:06from Vegas tonight, 50 and a half on the totals.
00:09You take a look at the side, minus three and a half,
00:11about seven out of every 10 tickets still coming in on the Dallas Cowboys.
00:14You're showing up after back-to-back losses, but on their bye week.
00:18Two bad defenses in Vegas tonight, Joe.
00:20What's your spread line here?
00:23Yeah, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody looking at the Raiders right now,
00:26which is why that hook is still available, Donnie.
00:29I mean, I'm showing the majority of tickets, majority of handle,
00:32all on the Dallas Cowboys here, and it makes sense, right?
00:37The Cowboys coming off of their bye week, and if it's one thing we know about
00:41this offense of Dallas is they'll have, well, they'll be able to put up some
00:45points here against a terrible defense, and the Raiders defense qualifies
00:50as being terrible.
00:52The only question is, can Geno Smith and company, who there are some, you know,
00:57there are some stories about him being a little banged up here at this point?
01:01That's a shocker.
01:03But is Dallas going to be able to defensively hold them in check here?
01:08It feels like points are coming, but it feels like a majority of those points
01:12are coming with the Cowboys and that offense in their first game back since,
01:18of course, the tragic passing of their young player just a couple of weeks ago.
01:22Monday Night Football.
01:25Ooh, the NFL gave us a gem tonight, didn't they?
01:27Well, sometimes value's in the eye of the beholder, and sometimes you can just
01:30give us a game that we expect high scoring.
01:32We could all have fun, bet some money, and make some money on prop bet sides
01:36and or totals.
01:37The Dallas Cowboys tonight are going to travel to Las Vegas, coming off of their
01:40bye week here, to take on the Raiders.
01:42This line, Joe, opened up at three.
01:44Now, it was three with a little bit of juice.
01:46Some outlets, still showing threes with juice.
01:48Most of them, light juice on the minus three and a halves here for the Dallas Cowboys.
01:53A total listed at 50 and a half.
01:55So let's start with the side itself.
01:57I do think the Dallas Cowboys are the better football team, but it is the NFL.
02:00And it's still, yes, hard to win on the road.
02:02The Dallas Cowboys probably playing more of a home game with how their fans travel
02:06versus who's actually going to be buying those tickets in Las Vegas.
02:09So I think that amounts to something.
02:10But the one thing we do know is here, both of these defenses, Joe, are really bad.
02:16And that's going to be at the center of the game focus tonight.
02:18And that, to me, is the difference here, Donnie, because I disagree with the market
02:23thinking Dallas is the worst offense in the league.
02:27You do know, right, that Dallas now has Quinnen Williams in the center of that defense, right?
02:34You do know that they also, for the first time, will have their stud linebacker,
02:40DeMarvian Overshone, available tonight, as well as their rookie quarterback,
02:44Siobhan Revell, making their season debuts.
02:47Now you put Kenneth Clark there in the middle, Quinnen Williams.
02:51And this is no longer the worst defense in the NFL.
02:55It's going to be able to stop the run.
02:57It's going to be much more athletic.
03:00And who exactly are the Raiders throwing the ball to or running?
03:03What, Aston Gentry is all of a sudden going to run the football with Quinnen Williams in the middle?
03:09Absolutely not.
03:10They've had a couple of weeks to get these guys healthy.
03:13This will be the most healthy this defense has been in a long time for the Cowboys.
03:17And something tells me, this offense won't have any problems actually scoring in this spot here.
03:25Can't trust the Raiders here.
03:27And I am looking very forward to seeing, now that they have all these guys on that defensive side of the ball,
03:33let's see exactly what the Raiders and Geno Smith can do against them.
03:37Because I don't think it's going to be a whole heck of a lot.
03:39Take a look at the head-to-head with the quarterback props tonight.
03:42Geno Smith around a 231.5 passing crop live.
03:44And Dak Prescott, 254.5.
03:46The total's here for the touchdowns.
03:48Geno Smith over 1.5 touchdown passes, minus 114.
03:51Dak Prescott over 1.5 touchdown passes, minus 158.
03:56You figure that Dak Prescott is going to get his yards.
03:58He's got those weapons.
03:59But also sometimes, you look at that Dallas Cowboys defense, and if Dallas is winning,
04:03Geno's going to have to be throwing, which could be bad.
04:07Yeah, well, it's very bad, Donnie.
04:10Especially since now he's going to be under pressure.
04:12And they're not, if you thought you'd have a chance at some sort of running game,
04:15well, they did away with that here with the trade market.
04:19But getting some of their healthy guys in that second and third layer there in the linebacking
04:24and the secondary is going to be big.
04:27And listen, I have no doubt that the Raiders are going to be playing from behind in this game,
04:32which means Geno's going to have to probably drop back and throw the ball an awful lot.
04:37I don't know who he's throwing it to.
04:38But Brock Bowers is it, but even then, I don't know how much time he's going to have.
04:43So I think of all the guys here, it feels like Dak is going to have himself a pretty good night
04:49like he usually does against sub-500 teams.
04:52But I think Geno's going to have to sling it tonight if they're going to have any shot
04:55at actually pulling off the upset.
04:57You know, Joe brings up a really good point at this, too,
04:59because you can't underestimate the push of the pocket up the middle.
05:02We're not talking about an athletic quarterback that can really get outside the pocket.
05:05Quinn and Williams, one of the best defensive tackles in football,
05:08could make a difference here in that running game and also in the passing game
05:11just by getting it, you know, pressure on the quarterback in the face,
05:14forcing him off of his spot.
05:15Let me tell you about the player rushing props here tonight, Joe.
05:18Ashton Gentry, 63 and a half.
05:20You look at Javante Williams, 75 and a half.
05:22The correlation for me in this marketplace tonight, Joe,
05:24when the Dallas Cowboys win football games, haven't won a lot,
05:27but take a look at Javante Williams' numbers here.
05:29Against the Giants, 40 to 37 victory, 18 carries, 97 yards.
05:33The Green Bay game, which was a tie, 20 carries, 85 yards.
05:37A win against the Jets, 16 carries, 135 yards.
05:41The win against Washington, 19 for 116.
05:45The expectations of the Dallas Cowboys should win tonight.
05:48It's a bad defense for the Raiders and maybe get those extra carries.
05:51But when they're winning football games,
05:53Javante Williams is rushing, Joe, for a lot of yards.
05:57Yeah, he is.
05:58And he is a good bet to be able to have some success in this one as well.
06:03Plus, it'll set up a lot of the play action.
06:05I expect Pickens to have a lot of yards here against that secondary.
06:10And I also don't know how Ashton Gentry is getting over that total, Donnie,
06:15at any time soon here tonight.
06:17That whole offensive line of the Raiders are all backups,
06:21including no more Colton Miller, who was their best offensive lineman.
06:24He's nowhere to be found yet.
06:26Eight rushing touchdowns for Javante Williams on the season.
06:29He's a minus 185 price point tonight in the any time touchdown market.
06:34Ashton Gentry, minus 155.
06:36And then Brock Bowers, minus 105.
06:37Plus money on CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
06:40How about that, people?
06:41Let's get into it, people.
06:42It's the early line on a Monday morning.
06:44It's an armchair quarterback Monday.
06:46It's Donnie Wrightside along with Joe Renier.
06:48We welcome in Tom Vecchio here to the show.
06:50A lot went down yesterday.
06:52A big game in Monday Night Football.
06:54Not necessarily between two teams that we think are going to be competitive in the playoff landscape,
06:58but we could be getting some points.
07:00We could be getting some options on who you want to score those points.
07:03And away we go, Tom Vecchio.
07:04What's good today, man?
07:06We're coming off a crazy day of the NFL.
07:08A lot of close games.
07:09A lot of games decided by last-second field goals.
07:11A lot of quarterback injuries.
07:14There's a ton to get to, not only for the NFL week coming up, but also tonight.
07:18And a lot of drops in the NFL yesterday.
07:20Just watching that Green Bay Packers game against the Giants.
07:23They couldn't catch on offense or defense.
07:25But yet they still won that football game because when it all mattered,
07:28Jamies at the end of the game, miscommunication with the wide receiver ends with an interception
07:32and the Green Bay Packers survived.
07:34But tonight, we're going to take a look at the Dallas Cowboys here, Tom.
07:37Fresh off of a bye, heading out west in a dome stadium.
07:40Don't have to worry about any windy or cold conditions here.
07:43This total coming in around 49.5 to 50.5, depending on where you're shopping at.
07:46And a favorite for the Cowboys, which opened up around three and sits around three and a half,
07:50depending on where you're shopping at tonight with the side as well.
07:53How do we look at this football game fresh off a bye for the Dallas Cowboys, Tom?
07:59My immediate look is the under.
08:01You know, seeing a 50 and a half line for a Raiders game, I'm thinking to myself,
08:04how are we going to get points in this game?
08:06What are the Raiders going to be doing on offense?
08:07They're one of the lowest scoring teams on offense.
08:10Now, if you were to tell me, you know, the Cowboys defense, which I'm not going to say they're good.
08:15We know they're bad.
08:16But I think they may be trending up.
08:17The trades, getting a couple of players back.
08:19You know, they are going to be getting some pieces back.
08:21So, if you told me that the Cowboys won this game 27-20, 28-20, this game stays under.
08:28Raiders do more scoring than I anticipated.
08:30But they're not doing enough to push us over 50.
08:33Like, the Cowboys defense is bad.
08:35The Raiders defense is terrible.
08:36But in order for me to be comfortable with this game going over 50,
08:39I would say comfortably the Cowboys need to have 35 points for me to be comfortable with that.
08:44Because we can't trust the Raiders on offense to do anything.
08:47So, immediately, I look to the under just because I don't know that the Raiders can do enough to do their part in this game to push it over 50 points.
08:53And if they're playing from behind, which is what we think they're going to be doing here in this spot,
09:01because Dak and Dallas always play sub-500 teams like they look like world beaters, Donnie.
09:07So, that means Geno's going to have to throw the ball a lot here tonight.
09:11I mean, is it just Bowers?
09:13Do we get Gentry receiving props involved?
09:16Like, how do we?
09:17He's got to throw it to somebody if he's trailing, right?
09:20Absolutely.
09:21I love the Gentry look for receiving yards, 16 and a half, coming out of the backfield.
09:25There were some quotes about Brock Bowers, the offense coordinator.
09:29They're saying, like, they didn't say, you know, the same quote that the Lions have said.
09:32But they said they just need to get Bowers more involved.
09:34They didn't fail him in that Broncos game.
09:36But the fact that he's ending with one catch for 31 yards is an issue.
09:40Now, there's a part of me that likes to say if the Cowboys can do their part and kind of take Bowers out of this game,
09:45it has to come down to the other players.
09:47It has to come down to Trey Tucker.
09:49For me, it would be siding with Gentry out of the backfield.
09:52Geno looks terrible in the pocket.
09:53The offensive line is not giving him any time.
09:55So, deep shots to Trey Tucker would be great to see.
09:58But that's not going to happen if the pass rush is getting after Geno Smith.
10:02So, give me Gentry coming out of the backfield.
10:04I certainly like that.
10:06Yeah, it should be fun to watch and see it play out.
10:08And also, Tom, you know me.
10:09I like to look at those touchdown props in the game tonight.
10:11Javante Williams is a favorite at minus 185.
10:13He scores a lot.
10:14He's got eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
10:16Ashton Gentry to minus 155.
10:18You figure if they get down to the goal end, there's an opportunity here.
10:20Brock Bowers, minus 105.
10:22But then you get that plus money here.
10:24CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
10:25If I would tell you tonight, would you be shocked if one, at least one of those guys,
10:30I should say, scores a touchdown, it's plus money in your back pocket.
10:33And we saw some of your plays come up here.
10:35How do you play in that wide receiver combo there for the Dallas Cowboys?
10:38It has to be CeeDee Lamb.
10:40And, you know, I can make the argument for Jake Ferguson that I like Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson.
10:44I think at least two of the three come through tonight.
10:46But CeeDee Lamb's got to score.
10:48Again, I've always talked about this with you, Donnie, literally for years at this point.
10:51When a player has this high of a target share, when they have this high of a red zone target share,
10:55and they're simply not scoring, they're seeing double-digit targets and back-to-back leagues,
10:58I'm willing to buy into that player having positive touchdown regression.
11:02When you have an over 21% target share, the red zone target share looks a little bit fluky this year
11:06because he missed so many games.
11:07We have to isolate the sample size that he played versus he didn't play.
11:10Jake Ferguson technically leads the team with the highest red zone target share.
11:14But they paid CeeDee Lamb, you know, a couple years ago, all that money.
11:17He's been going without touchdowns.
11:19I just think this is the spot that he scores.
11:20It's not a super big number, but it's the right time to back CeeDee Lamb,
11:23and we're getting plus money at it.
11:25Yeah.
11:25It feels like a lot of running, a lot of big shots down the field, so CeeDee Lamb is great.
11:34What do you think Pickens' role is going to be?
11:37Two or three catches for 70 yards, and that's – he gets the big –
11:41who's going to stretch the field for him, CeeDee Lamb or Pickens here tonight?
11:45I would certainly go with Pickens.
11:47I do really like how he's developed with Dallas.
11:50And I've got to be honest, I wasn't super high on him coming into the season.
11:53I just wasn't sure where he was going to fit in the offense.
11:55But the time that CeeDee Lamb missed really elevated him to showing that he can be a better route runner
12:01than simply just a deep threat, which is kind of what he was in Pittsburgh.
12:04He has really changed his game a little bit to be like a consistent route running.
12:08Now, he always has that deep shot ability, and any time we can get a terrible defense
12:12on the other side of the competent offense, as we have tonight going up against the Raiders,
12:16the deep shots with Pickens will be there.
12:17Over 24.5 for his longest reception, I think, is always in play.
12:21How about this, though, Tom?
12:22I don't see this right here.
12:23I'm just looking at FanDuel quickly.
12:24Going over some of the names at wide receiver, I don't see Jack Besch out here.
12:28Should we be playing Jack Besch if we can find the number on this guy tonight?
12:31Or do we just roll with Tyler Lockett because they love Tyler Lockett for some reason?
12:36Listen, he's got the on-field connection with Geno Butts.
12:38At 26.5, Lockett's number was, what, 14.5 for the Broncos game against Denver on Thursday night?
12:46That has been bent up or just adjusted.
12:48I'm not betting into a line that has jumped 12 yards or 13 yards in a week-a-week,
12:53and nothing has changed.
12:54I'd rather just stick with Geno Butts at 16.5 and trust that that role is going to come through.
12:58And again, looking to Brock Bauer, some capacity for him, I think he has to be the guy tonight.
13:04Yeah, I like Javante on the ground, 75.5.
13:06Me and Joe were going over a couple correlations where when the Dallas Cowboys win,
13:10he really runs wild.
13:11And the expectations are they win, which means extra carries possibly in the fourth quarter
13:14and see how that one lines up.
13:16But, Tom, just going back to yesterday and certainly last night's game, Philadelphia and Detroit,
13:20are we worried about Detroit moving forward?
13:22And also, are we worried about Kansas City moving forward if both of those teams lost yesterday?
13:27You'd be more worried about Kansas City just based on the fact that they're not currently in a playoff position.
13:32Next week, the Lions host the Giants.
13:35The Giants are coming off a game where they play pretty well against the Packers
13:38and the Lions on national TV look terrible.
13:42Give me the Lions and I think they blow through this number on the cover
13:44and I think they just run away with things at home and people forget what happened against the Eagles.
13:48There we go.
13:49Week 12 on deck.
13:50Tom's already ready for Week 12, but let's see if we can cash in some of those profits from Tom tonight
13:54in Monday Night Football.
13:56Down to the right side, Joe Odear.
13:57We'll be back.
13:57Tom, thanks for rising and grinding with us.
13:59I'm going to keep the heat on in the NFL tonight.
14:01We're going to take a look at that Dallas Cowboys-Las Vegas Raiders game.
14:04And for me, I'm going to go with the running back position tonight.
14:06I already explained exactly why I like this.
14:08Javante Williams over 74.5 rushing yards at a minus 114 price.
14:13The Dallas Cowboys are favored to win.
14:14I think they win tonight.
14:15If they do, that means Javante Williams will be a big part of that.
14:18Don't need 100 yards.
14:19That would be nice.
14:20Just give me 75 yards and the win tonight, Joe.
14:23Javante Williams over 74.5 rushing yards for me.
14:26We have a nice NBA and NFL combo tonight, Joe.
14:30Looking for a 2-0 to get this work week started.
14:32Yeah, I think he has a huge night tonight for the Cowboys.
14:36And I think the Cowboys, a new look defense for the Cowboys tonight.
14:41Pay attention.
14:42They're not going to be nearly as bad as they have been.
14:45Jerry Jones' dream combo.
14:47Queenie Williams and Kenny Clark.
14:48We're going to stop the run, people.
14:50We'll see if they can.
14:51We'll see if they can.
14:51We'll see if they can.
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