As Syria seeks alliances with Turkey, Gulf States and West, Russia envisions 'new partnership ' with Damascus

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00:00Next, it's been described as a historic visit.

00:02U.S. President Donald Trump is gearing up to host his Syrian counterpart, Ahmed al-Sharah, today.

00:08It's the first time a Syrian leader will step foot in the White House in nearly 80 years.

00:12It's said to be an extraordinary meeting with the Syrian president,

00:16once a former jihadi detained by the U.S. in Iraq 20 years ago.

00:20It's the latest push from al-Sharah to re-establish Syria's presence on the world stage

00:24since he toppled dictator Bashar al-Assad nearly a year ago.

00:28So we're going to take stock of what's at stake here with Jerome Drivon,

00:33who is a senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group

00:40and also the author of the book, Transformed by the People, Hayat al-Sharah's Road to Power in Syria.

00:48Let's bring him in. Jerome, thanks so much for joining us on the program today.

00:52So we're talking about a man here who once had a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government.

01:00He's now about to walk through the doors of the White House, be welcomed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

01:05Talk to us about the significance of this visit.

01:08Jerome, just to make sure we have you, it looks like we have lost him there.

01:19Hopefully we will get him back soon so we can talk about what is a very important issue.

01:24Oh, it looks like we have him again.

01:26Jerome, thank you so much for staying with us.

01:28I was just asking you about the significance of this meeting because, of course,

01:33Ahmed al-Sharah once had a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government.

01:38He's about to walk into the White House and I'll be welcomed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

01:42Talk to us about that significance there.

01:46It is extremely significant.

01:48I mean, up to one year ago, there was still a bounty on his head.

01:52Up to last week, he was still listed by the U.N. Security Council.

01:57And so it marks a real renewal for Syria.

02:00This is the first time in decades that the Syrian president visits the U.S.,

02:05visits the head of Bukat Barra in Washington.

02:09And so for Syria, it's a really good sign that Syria is back in terms of international legitimacy.

02:15Well, before we talk about the meeting's specifics, I do want to look at the background here

02:20because the U.S. just a few days ago formally revoked al-Sharah status

02:24as a specially designated global terrorist.

02:27Was Washington right to do that, do you think?

02:29Some could argue that it hasn't received the guarantees, enough guarantees from Damascus

02:34on fighting terrorism in Syria, for example.

02:39No, I think what the new government has done since taking power in Damascus,

02:44but also for the past five years, has been very clear in terms of international security.

02:48For the past, since 2019 and 2020, it has rejected global jihadist organization.

02:55It has clamped down on them, both al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

02:58And so years before taking power in Damascus, the group was already showing its commitment

03:04to fighting radicals in the territory that it controlled.

03:10And it has continued to do so for the past few months.

03:13There have been operations against Islamic State sales.

03:17There has been sharing of information between Western countries and the new government.

03:22And most of the criticisms are not really about security or terrorism.

03:25It's more about the nature of governance, how inclusive or exclusivity is,

03:30how are its relations to other parts of the community,

03:34but not that much about transnational security, really.

03:37Well, one of the big promises from al-Sharah is to bring national unity to Syria.

03:43Of course, a country very much divided.

03:46We've had al-Sharah, of course, looking at bringing that national unity, as I discussed,

03:53but also the U.S. has also been working with him on that.

03:56The most pressing issue perhaps affecting national unity

04:00is the relations between Damascus and the Kurds in the northeast.

04:03Talk to us about whether the U.S. will be able to bring peace to that area.

04:09So the U.S. indeed has been involved in negotiations,

04:12negotiating between the SDF that controls parts of the country and the new government.

04:18The discussions are extremely difficult

04:19because both sides are not ready to really move forward.

04:24The negotiations are demanding real concessions from each side.

04:28So for a Charlotte going to Washington also plays in these negotiations

04:33because to some extent he's getting more leverage internally

04:37because he's now recognized as a real international figure with legitimacy.

04:44But also the SDF is no longer the only Syrian actor

04:47that can collaborate with the international community on terrorism.

04:51The new Syrian government can do it as well.

04:53So it really changes the perceptions domestically

04:56of the outcome of these negotiations between the SDF and the government.

05:01One of the big talking points today will be this global anti-ISIS coalition

05:05that Shirai is expected to formally sign up to today.

05:09Describe to us what that coalition is all about

05:12and how effective Syria can be in the fight against ISIS.

05:15So the coalition was created after the Islamic State

05:19to control large parts of Syria and Iraq by 2014-2015.

05:25It's an international coalition made up of some 80-plus countries.

05:31And so for the government, it's important to be part of the coalition

05:34to prove that it can play a role internationally

05:37in stabilizing international security.

05:40But the government is also very well positioned to fight Islamic State sales.

05:45It has done it in the past when it was controlling one part of Syria.

05:49It has a good, relatively good knowledge of those networks,

05:53of how they organize, how they plan, how they think.

05:57And so for the international community,

05:58it will be a real gain to collaborate with the Syrian government

06:02in order to dismantle whatever remains of Islamic State in Syria,

06:06in order to also prevent the group from launching armed attacks,

06:11whether in Turkey or in European countries or beyond.

06:15And of course, some level of progress is being made

06:17on the Gaza ceasefire in the Middle East.

06:20Syria is now arguably the most important issue for the U.S. in the region.

06:25Describe to us why is it so important that the U.S. gets this right?

06:28So basically for Washington, the purpose is to stabilize the region

06:34to avoid further conflicts.

06:37But conflicts have continued in Syria for the past few months.

06:42As soon as the government took over Damascus,

06:45Israel bombed most of its military bases.

06:49And bombings have continued since then.

06:51Most practically now,

06:52the Israeli government has also taken as he's some territory

06:58next to the Golan.

07:01And so the situation remains unstable.

07:03And so part of the objectives of the government in Washington

07:06is also to work on this file

07:08to basically get into a new agreement with Israel

07:12through Washington,

07:13an agreement that could calm the situation,

07:15that could create a security understanding

07:18and that could basically avoid further Israeli escalation

07:23in the region,

07:24which could lead to a deterioration of security.

07:28This visit does come just weeks after Ahmad al-Sharah

07:31visited the Kremlin to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

07:36Russia, of course, was once one of Syria's strongest allies.

07:40How is Moscow likely to be viewing the meeting today

07:42between al-Sharah and President Donald Trump?

07:45Well, for Russia, it's clear that the new Syrian authorities

07:49are trying to reach out to Western countries

07:52and to Gulf countries that are allied to the West.

07:55So for Russia, it's not really a surprise.

07:58Russia is not trying to prevent the Syrian government

08:00from reaching out to Western countries.

08:02Rather, Russia is trying to become a new partner

08:06for the Syrian authorities

08:07so that the Syrian authorities can also play on different fronts,

08:11can ally with Turkey, with Gulf countries,

08:14including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others,

08:18the West and Russia.

08:20And so Russia wants to be part of this new system of alliance

08:23created by Damascus.

08:26And so it's going to look at the outcome of those discussions.

08:30But I don't think Russia is particularly worried about them

08:33because this was an unexpected outcome to some extent.

08:37Azharah's main goal, one of his main goals,

08:40is rebuilding after so many years of the civil war.

08:43He's expected to push for the remaining sanctions

08:46the U.S. imposed on Syria during the war.

08:49He's expected to push for those to be lifted.

08:52Do you think he will succeed in that?

08:54And also talk to us about the impact

08:56that the sanctions have had on Syria's road to recovery.

08:59I mean, the sanctions have a massive impact

09:03because the previous regime was listed.

09:07HTS as a localization continues to be listed internationally.

09:12And Abad-Ashara and his Minister of Interior

09:14were listed up to last week.

09:17And those are real obstacles to the reconstruction of the country

09:20because the private sector in Western countries and beyond

09:26do not really want to invest because they don't feel safe.

09:29They feel that there could be negative consequences

09:31in any investments.

09:32They could be accused of helping terrorism one way or another.

09:37And so there can only be, for now, short-term investments,

09:41but no structural investment,

09:43not the type of infrastructure or construction

09:45that the country really needs.

09:48And the positive side is that President Trump,

09:52a few months ago, when he met Ahmed Ashara for the first time,

09:55he agreed about the idea of lifting sanctions

09:58and he has worked towards this.

10:01But it's not as simple as just saying

10:03that sanctions have to be lifted.

10:05There are a range of bureaucratic positions

10:08that have to be respected.

10:10And so Syria continues to be under the U.S. sanctions.

10:13And so part of Ahmadinejad's objective

10:16is also to convince remaining members of the Congress

10:19to vote in favour of repealing the CESAR Act

10:22that continues to affect Syria as a country

10:25and to work towards lifting all of the sanctions.

10:29So a big part has been done,

10:31but more has to continue for now.

10:34Well, we'll have to see what comes out of that meeting

10:35taking place later on today in Washington.

10:38Jerome, thank you so much for joining us on the programme.

10:40Thank you for giving us your thoughts on this.

10:42That's, of course, Jerome Drivon,

10:44who is a senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict

10:47at the International Crisis Group.

10:49He's also the author of the book

10:51Transformed by the People, Hayat Tara al-Shams,

10:54Road to Power in Syria.

10:56Thank you so much for joining us today.

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