Key Takeaways from the "Beige Book of Tech"

Bloomberg

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00:00$400 million comes from the consumer internet sector, and that's growing, and then there's

00:07$900 million additional growth dollars in B2B tech. And so you can see that overall,

00:14you see that the B2B side is going to add a great deal more money, and then that includes a lot of

00:20the new revenue that's going to come from AI over the next years. But the consumer side,

00:24there's going to be significant new dollars coming into the global industry.

00:30From? From? Where are they coming from?

00:35Oh, they're coming from everything from advertising to subscriptions to sales. I mean,

00:41if we look at their places, like we see video games, it's going to be a $214 billion business

00:46within four years. We're just going to see there's going to continue to be people are going to spend

00:51more time. They're going to spend more money. And a lot of this is growing because, yes,

00:56people are spending more time, more engagement. They're doing multiple things at a time with

01:02technology and media.

01:04So how does this improve productivity? If it does, Michael, what's your take on that? And

01:13what does it mean for the labor market? What does it mean for society?

01:17Well, let's start with people. I think some of the people are freeing up more time for doing things

01:26that are leisure information because a lot of the apps that we're using that are going to be driven

01:31by AI just makes things so much more efficient. It's that time you're going to save in terms of

01:37calling an Uber, that time you're going to save in terms of ordering online or ordering from Amazon

01:43or Target. So that's on the consumer side. On the B2B side, we're actually much more upbeat

01:51about the ability for companies and people in those companies to do more work. We're not going

01:58to lose many of the jobs. I mean, what we keep seeing in many sectors, even though AI is more

02:05efficient at doing jobs, that there's still more skilled workers are needed.

02:09Michael, one of the things that feels like it's really picked up steam are all of these various

02:15AI video platforms that you plug in whatever you want, and it gives you a video. And because of that,

02:21it is the AI slop of the world. I've had my father-in-law, for example, send me a video of

02:26a dog rescuing a baby from a pool that's obviously AI, and I don't know why it exists. Are we about to

02:32just be inundated of a world of AI-created content everywhere? Does the quality of things people

02:38producing, is it just set to plunge?

02:42Well, let's put this in context. It's clear video is eating the internet. So much of more of what we're

02:49seeing is driven by video. So if you look at social media, if we look at five years ago, social media,

02:56roughly 41% of it is video. Today, it's over 70%. And by the way, most of that is not coming from your

03:04friends. It's coming from influencers. So we're looking at, in the case of TikTok, it's almost 85%

03:12of the videos. In Instagram, it's over 70%. And a lot of those videos are going to come from AI.

03:18Just in the last month, both Facebook or Meta and OpenAI released their own TikTok-like platform so

03:27that you can scroll through just AI-driven videos. And that's only going to intensify. And it's another

03:35way in which creators and people are going to share videos. And a lot of them are fun. I mean,

03:40a lot of them are some of the same things that the giant shark eats the boat or packages blow up in

03:48people's faces with paint on them. But we should expect to see more. They include, people are

03:54incorporating Jar Jar Binks into their family photos. Oh, don't get me started on Jar Jar. Dude,

04:00that was a huge, huge mistake. I question what George Lucas was thinking and why he hasn't

04:08apologized to the world yet. Can I ask Michael about, you know, we're seeing these glasses come

04:16out and, you know, these Vision Pro things. And I wonder what you think the medium is going to be.

04:22Is that going to change over the next five years or 10 years?

04:27We're very upbeat about what's going to happen with AI glasses and spatial computing overall. I mean,

04:33both VR and AR. And part of the reason is we're going to move so many of the biggest technology

04:39companies are investing. If you look at pretty much the largest technology companies in the world

04:45are all putting efforts behind spatial computing, which is those AR and VR. And part of the reason

04:53is, or to the large extent, what they're doing is they're betting on a post-smartphone future.

04:58They're betting on a world where we're not going to be looking at our phones, but we're looking up.

05:03And it's either going to be bringing AI into the real world, essentially a heads-up display for

05:09everything else in our lives. So even though the sales aren't there yet, they're putting that cash

05:15in because they do expect that this is going to be a new mode for us to enjoy entertainment and

05:21put AI into our lives at the same time.

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