NextHome Co-CEO Keith Robinson on seismic shifts in the real estate industry

HousingWire

This week on RealTrending, Tracey Velt talks with Keith Robinson, co-CEO of NextHome and author of the Substack "Crazy Uncle Keith." Tracey and Keith dive into the seismic shifts reshaping real estate, including the potential Compass-Anywhere merger, the ongoing fallout from the settlement lawsuit and the pro-agent group pushing for more transparency at NAR.   Keith shares his take on private listing networks, why the industry's most defensible position is "the human being," and how agents can capitalize on the current rate environment to boost their business.   Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:   Why the Compass-Anywhere merger could trigger an "arms race for listings"   How agents can actually make more money now, post-settlement, by creating better buyer offerings   The real impact of private listing networks on home buyers and sellers   Why Keith believes NAR is finally heading in the right direction under Nykia Wright   How rates below 6.5% for 60+ days signal a market shift agents can't afford to miss   The three traits every agent needs to develop by 2030, including a "healthy fear of AI"   Related to this episode:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   ⁠Keith Robinson | SubStack⁠  https://crazyunclekeith.substack.com/  ⁠NextHome⁠  https://www.nexthome.com/  ⁠Keith Robinson | LinkedIn⁠  https://www.linkedin.com/in/ksrobinson/  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  To learn more about Homebot visit https://homebot.ai/   The RealTrending podcast features conversations with the brightest minds in real estate. Every Monday, brokerage leaders, top agents, team leaders, and industry experts join us to share their secrets to success, trends, and the lessons they’ve learned. Hosted by Tracey Velt and produced by the HousingWire Content

Transcript

00:00We've gone through a year, a couple of years of big changes in real estate, and the future

00:07looks like there might be some more. I spoke with Keith Robinson. He's the co-CEO of Next

00:12Home Real Estate and also writes the Substack, Crazy Uncle Keith. And we talked about everything

00:19from the Compass Anywhere merger to the shakeout from the settlement, and also this pro-agent

00:25working group of brokerages that are asking for change at NAR. So I hope you enjoy the

00:32podcast. Lots of great things are included. And thank you to HomeBot for sponsoring this

00:40episode of Real Trending. So Crazy Uncle Keith, thanks for joining the Real Trending podcast.

00:47My pleasure. Thanks for having me.

00:49So for those listening, we've already dissected my vision board behind me and got into our

00:58life stories. But I want to start with your Substack. So why did you decide? Why Crazy Uncle

01:06Keith, I guess, is my question.

01:09So this one actually is a little bit of an embarrassing story, but I've actually only shared this one

01:14other time. You're the second person to ever ask me. So I am the co-CEO for a real estate

01:22franchisor called Next Home. And my business partners are great partners. The entire team's

01:27amazing. And they're pretty buttoned up. They're pretty, you know, the top button on the polo is

01:35always buttoned. And I was like, golly, I don't know if I'm a fit in here because I say some crazy

01:41stuff. So I, this is very embarrassing. You're not supposed to give yourself a nickname. You

01:46aren't supposed to like create your own persona. But that's basically what I did was I needed the

01:53freedom to say some kind of crazy stuff sometimes and felt like I was everyone's favorite crazy uncle

01:59at Thanksgiving who would, you know, kind of blow into town once a year and say some crazy stuff

02:04and leave. And so that's kind of where it came from. I wanted permission to have an alter ego

02:11that could say some things, maybe that boring old co-CEO Keith Robinson couldn't say, but your crazy

02:17uncle can say things that you can get away with. So self-named, which is very embarrassing. And now

02:24I've told the world. So here we go. So what has been the most controversial post that you've had?

02:29Hmm. It's a good question. Controversial. Um, you know, I, I'm not, I don't think of myself as super

02:37controversial. Uh, I try to really look at both sides. Um, probably James and I were very early

02:45on the lawsuit stuff, the settlement lawsuit. Um, and we were talking about it 18, 24 months before it

02:52happened. And we were telling people it was coming. Everyone was saying it's going to be years away

02:58that we're doom and gloom, you know, yada, yada. It turns out that's when we got right. And most of

03:04the industry didn't. And so we sort of had a sort of first mover thought process there. Um, so that's

03:12probably the one that has gotten, it was initially the most controversial. And then I probably

03:17selfishly picked one that made us sound really smart. Cause there's a bunch we've gotten wrong.

03:21But, uh, when you're one of the lone people out there saying, Hey, this class action lawsuit is

03:25serious. It's real. It's going to be, it's going to change the way or affect the way we do residential

03:30real estate. And people just thought we were nuts and doom and gloom. And it turns out we got that

03:36one, right. Yeah. That's interesting because I was one of the ones who really felt like there were so

03:41many arguments, um, that you would have thought the lawsuit went a different way. Um, and you know,

03:48I, and it didn't obviously, and I think that shocked a lot of people and there was a lot of doom

03:54and gloom, but it looks like now that we're over a year out that it really hasn't changed much.

04:02Should it have changed more than it has already? Yeah. The, I think the root question is why hasn't

04:10it changed much? And there may be another lawsuit at some point to determine that. Um, if it hasn't

04:17changed much because people are saying the same sorts of things that they used to say, like, don't worry

04:22about it, the seller pays it. And those other sort of, uh, I almost said a bad word, those other, um,

04:29inaccurate statements. And there we go. Right. Then yeah, that's, that's a problem. Um, I think

04:36like for our company, when we talk to them, you can either use this as a fear-based or use this as an

04:42opportunity. So if you think about it just objectively, when I was working with a buyer

04:47previously, I didn't have the ability to control my revenue. So I didn't know what my revenue was

04:53going to be. So it was very difficult for me to create an offering for my buyer when I don't know

04:58how much revenue my company is going to bring in when I work with a buyer. Does that make sense?

05:02And so now I have the ability to craft and curate an offering where I can say, Hey buyer, I do this

05:08just like a listing presentation, right? I do this and this and this and this, and this, these are all the

05:12things I do, all the reasons I'm different, how I'm differentiated. And for that I charge X, right?

05:18And then you negotiate because all commissions are negotiable. You negotiate that commission,

05:22but you get the opportunity to do it on your own and provide a real offering. Right. And that can put

05:29upward pressure actually on a buy side commission because people have shown again and again,

05:33they'll pay for service. People will pay for convenience, pay for service. So there are some

05:38agents out there that are doing the right thing. They've looked at this as a business opportunity.

05:42They've created a purchase offering and they're actually making more money today on buyers than

05:47they used to because they're in control of the process. So if that's why they aren't changing,

05:52I think that's awesome. I think that's great. If they aren't changing because agents are just kind

05:58of doing the things the way they've always done it and trying to find, you know, workarounds and

06:02then that's a problem and that will come home to roost for those agents. So the devil's in the

06:08percentage, uh, I think that I'll hope that most are doing it because they've created and curated a

06:15new business offering. But my intuition is there's a fair number out there that are doing it just

06:19because it's, you know, they just found a workaround. Yeah. We published an article on

06:24housing wire recently that they had some mystery shoppers go out and check and yeah, it was iffy.

06:31Um, yeah, right. And now I also don't believe if everybody was doing it the right way, it probably

06:37wouldn't have been an article, right? There's a certain amount of that. Yeah. The, I think it

06:45was that consumer federation. I'm not positive that that did it. So, uh, they did. We've actually had

06:50him on, on our podcast and, uh, I mean, I'm glad they're checking, please check. And if people are

06:56doing it the wrong way, they should get in trouble. I don't have a problem with that at all,

06:59but let's just not paint with this broad brush and act like if an agent, an agent could be making

07:07more on buyers today and do it completely the responsible, appropriate, correct way.

07:11They're just providing more. So they should charge more, right? There's a reason or there's

07:16nothing wrong with a Honda. I own one, right? But a Mercedes in general costs more than Hondas. Why?

07:21Like both will get you from a to B, but one offers different things. And so long as that's how agents

07:26are competing, I'm all for it. Yeah, absolutely. And I don't think I have a Mercedes or a Honda on

07:32that vision board. So there's still time. There's still time. Once you're done paying for all that

07:37college, maybe you can get whatever you want. Exactly. Exactly. Um, so you kind of, you focus

07:44on market shifts and you kind of see some of them crest or, or, you know, kind of come up before

07:50other people do. Um, so tell me some of the trends that you're seeing in the industry, not the market,

07:58but the industry right now that either concern you or excite you. Hmm. Well, I mean, there's the big

08:06one, right? The big industry trend right now around CCP, private listing, that whole debate. Um,

08:14and I just, I'm on my second cup of coffee, so this could get me in trouble, Tracy, but here I go.

08:20Um, look, if we lose sight, I've said for years that the most defensible position for our industry

08:28is that the human being, what I mean by that is we don't sell houses. There's no script or dialogue

08:34that gets someone who isn't ready to buy or sell to buy or sell. This isn't a sales job. We should

08:40treat it like a sales job, rejection, avoidant real estate agent. We can talk about that too, but

08:43this is, this is really a service business. We just happen to monetize the sale of a home for

08:48the service that we provide. And we cannot lose sight of the human being in the transaction.

08:54And if we do that, then I worry tremendously about our industry. And so for the agents and companies

09:01that are trying to make it harder for the human being who wants to buy a house to see what is for

09:08sale, that's a problem. That is not what we should be doing. We are not thinking,

09:13about the best interests of the human being in the process. And I know the other side of it would

09:19be, well, what about the human being who's selling the home? Shouldn't they have choice?

09:22Sure. Yeah. Let me see how you're disclosing it. And then I can tell you how I feel about it.

09:27Cause could, could someone say, well, a human being should have the right to do whatever they want

09:30with their home. Well, first of all, that's not true. Okay. Right. Like they can't, you can't just set

09:35it on fire with people in it. Right. You can't do that. So there's all sorts of things you can't do with

09:39your home just cause you own it, but I'm okay with people taking less money for their home for

09:45convenience. That's okay with me. So long as they know that that's what they're doing.

09:49And the iBuyers came in, right? I mean, in general, yeah, yeah. Convenience.

09:56So, right. And how did that work out for the iBuyers? Most people don't want, look, everyone wants

10:03convenience and everyone wants the most money, not everyone, but most people want the most money that

10:07they can get for their home when they sell it. Right. Well, those two things are at odds because

10:12in order to get the most money for your home, when you sell it, you need the most exposure possible.

10:16You need as many people seeing that as possible. More exposure equals more offers, more offers

10:21equals more money, more money equals more profit for the home. Right. It's just, that's just fundamental

10:26logic. Yeah. So anything that limits that will limit the return that the seller gets. And people look,

10:34I've sold houses before where the, you know, husband was a firefighter, wife was a nurse and

10:39the buyer maybe wasn't the highest offer, but it was a firefighter and a nurse and they wanted them

10:44to have their house. They do it all the time, but they do it informed and they know exactly how much

10:49money they're leaving on the table for exactly whatever it is they're leaving it on the table for

10:53and they're willing to do. Yeah. What I worry about is this opaque sort of, you know, marketing plan

11:00where the seller doesn't really understand what they could be leaving on the table and they're

11:07just agreeing to something without full context and knowledge. That's a problem for me. And if we

11:12lose sight of the human being in the transaction, then we're in trouble as an industry. And so it's,

11:18is it a little hyperbolic to call it an existential threat? Yeah, maybe, but it's not good. It's not,

11:24we cannot lose sight of who we serve in this process. And that is the human beings who buy and sell

11:29houses. And if you want to cloak yourself in freedom of speech, that's fine with me,

11:33but you better be telling the person the ramifications of their decision.

11:37Yeah, absolutely. And there's a lot of drama over that, obviously with the lawsuits,

11:44you know, we've got Zillow, we've got CoStar, we've got Compass, they're all involved in a million

11:52lawsuits. What are your thoughts on, on, you know, Zillow versus CoStar, let's say, or,

11:59and I don't mean, who do you just back? That's not my question, but like...

12:03Are we going Game of Thrones now? Like, which banner am I going to fight for?

12:08Right. But what are your thoughts on, on some of those lawsuits that are happening right now,

12:12whether it's photo infringement or, you know, there's...

12:15Okay. Let me start with a little caveat, right? The views being expressive,

12:20views Crazy Uncle Keith, not Tracy Housing Wire or any of their affiliates or any of my company,

12:25right? I just, I'm not the lawsuit guy. They, they drive me crazy. Uh, James, my partner is the

12:31lawsuit guy. He, he, I, cause what do we, like, what are we doing? What are we really doing?

12:37Well, like, what are we really talking about? It feels like companies who are fighting the way

12:43that they know how to fight, which is to litigate each other into oblivion. Right. And I guess that's,

12:52you know, the way of the world. We happen to live in a pretty litigious country. Um, I get to some

12:58degree, it's how business is done. I do understand that. It's just not, I don't know, like, it's just

13:02not my thing. Like fight it out, just fight it out. Like put it, what we should do is at, at NAR later

13:10this year, just put a UFC ring right out in front of the stadium or where the convention center and

13:17let them just get in there and trial by combat. And, you know, I don't know, like it sure it's

13:22maybe a little caveman, but it was a lot simpler. Um, I, I just, we can get into the specifics if you

13:28want, but in general, I don't love, like, let the best idea went and let's focus on the human beings

13:36who buy and sell houses. Let's focus on operating really good businesses. Let's take care of the

13:42people inside and outside of our company. And I know this sounds so Pollyanna. I can't like

13:47people are probably, hopefully they're not turning it off the podcast in droves right now, but I just,

13:53I just, I want to compete on the playing field of business and not the playing field of the courtroom.

14:00And I want to compete on who can serve the human being in the transaction at the highest level.

14:04And if we focus on that, then the lawsuits are going to be what they're going to be. And

14:09attorneys are going to get paid and judges are going to give answers. I'm going to focus on

14:14who we serve and continuing to try to innovate, create, and provide value at the highest levels.

14:21And then the attorneys and the judges will figure out the court stuff.

14:26Yeah. I feel like some companies are getting undue hate for the way they want to do business. And if

14:33it's legally sound and ethical, it really, and I don't know whether some of it is or not. So

14:41let's caveat that.

14:44And that's why they got courts, right? Just to figure that out.

14:47Yes. I just, I just, um, you know, the industry has changed so much since I started in it, which was

14:541990. Um, we've been doing this a while, but you know, honestly, it, it really, the, the Zillow hate

15:06started then. I mean, in the nineties when they came on board and nobody wanted to, to make, um, public

15:13their listing information. Cause they thought they'd lose their jobs. Agents lost, thought

15:17they'd lose their jobs because of it.

15:19Yeah. Yeah. We regularly lose sight of our value prop. Right. I mean, I remember Zillow. I was

15:25around when they first came out and everybody, you know, people are still pissed. We gave them their

15:30data so they could sell us back our leads. Right. I hear that one all the time. Well, show me where

15:34your time machine is and I'm happy to jump in it with you and we can go back and change that. But until

15:38then we are where we are. Right. Um, and look, Zillow is probably earned some of the hate when

15:44they first came on the scene. They weren't industry friendly. They weren't, um, they weren't

15:49adversarial, but they weren't industry friendly then. Cause a lot, look, I've, I happen to live

15:54near Silicon Valley, right? Like a lot of tech startups come out of near where I live. I get

15:58asked from time to time to go meet with folks and answer questions about the industry, blah, blah,

16:02blah. Right. And most of the time they don't understand the depth of relationship between

16:11the real estate professional and their client. And so you see it on this whiteboard and you're

16:14like, holy moly, how much, how much revenue is generated in that industry? Yeah. By, by,

16:21by real estate agents. Oh, well, if you just see it in the, you know, on the whiteboard, right?

16:26Well, if we could get 10%, right. And it seems so simple, but you don't understand the

16:32depth of relationship, right? More than, I don't know. I haven't looked at it in a while,

16:36but North of 85% of people say they'd use their real estate agent again, right? They have, they,

16:41they have a negative maybe perception of, of real estate professionals, but not their real estate

16:48professional. They love their real estate profession. Right. And if you don't understand

16:53the depth of that relationship, it's hard to whiteboard that. And so a lot, I mean,

16:59iBio started out, not industry friendly, became industry friendly. Zillow started out,

17:03not industry. They all come in, not industry friendly. Then they realized, oh, I can't

17:07actually operate a business unless I'm going to be industry friendly. Yeah. And then they become

17:12industry friendly. Yeah. That was the whole disruption. Everybody talked disruption. Everything

17:16was disruption. You know, I'm so tired of like, like I disagree. This is what I talk about, uh,

17:24with inside of our company a lot. Like I'll let everyone else worry about all that. You, again,

17:29the most defensible position for our industry is that the human being. Yeah. Right. And so that's

17:35where I focus all my effort, all my energy. That's where I'm going to build my castle, high walls,

17:40deep moats, the whole nine yards. When it's that intersection interface with the human being,

17:45that's where I will fight tooth and nail to the end. Yeah. If it isn't there, like I'll let someone

17:52else worry about that. Yeah. I'll let someone else worry about that. So, um, but yeah, I mean,

17:57many, many times when these companies come into the industry, they just don't understand the depth

18:02of relationship. They underweight it. And then they realize that that's going to be a problem for them

18:07in their future. And so then they have to tweak and adjust or as pivot, I think is the new business

18:13word for it. Yeah. Uh, and then they have to pivot. Well, a compass and anywhere just had their

18:18earnings calls this morning. Um, I mean, well, compass did talk a lot about how they're going

18:24to use the Christie's playbook, but anywhere basically just said late 2026, um, in their

18:30earnings calls. Check with us later. Yeah. Yeah. I feel like people do a little bit. Well,

18:37I don't want to say they overestimate cause it's a huge deal, but they overestimate the

18:41market share that this company after merging will actually have. You say they overestimate

18:49or underestimate? I think they overestimate it. I think it's between 12 and 15% is what

18:54we figured out. Um, which is a lot obviously because, but I don't feel like people understand

18:59how fractured the market share really is. Um, yeah. Do I have permission just to push back

19:05a little on that? Sure. Go ahead. Okay. So while I agree with you, when you look at the

19:10national stats, it's probably so I've seen 15, 20, 17, 18. Right. And that's accurate.

19:16That's not inaccurate, but that's the average. Right. So that means there are some where it's

19:2230 and 40 big cities for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Well, which is where a lot of the transactions

19:28are done. Right. I think most of the ones I've seen that's on unit count, not on sales

19:33volumes. So it'd be interesting to see it run on sales volume. Yeah. And most importantly,

19:37again, for your listeners, if you're tired of hearing this, I apologize, but it is my mantra

19:43in a market where 30 to 40% of the listings can't be seen by a home buyer. Well, that's

19:48a problem for the human being who wants to buy a house, who is all I lose sleep over and care

19:53about. Right. I care about my agents and human beings who buy and sell houses. That's it.

19:56Yeah. And so while you're right in that 15%, I think that that doesn't really elucidate the

20:04problem. The problem isn't when it's, you know, 10%, 8%, 7%, which will be many markets across the

20:10US, but there will also be many markets where it's 30 and 40. And when a human being who wants

20:17to find the home that they want to buy, can't see a third of the available inventory, they are not

20:22going to like that experience and we will have a problem as an industry because we're losing sight

20:26of those humans. It'll be interesting what, um, regulatory changes, if any. I mean, I know with

20:34the Christie's merger, they, they had to give up a big California office. Um, yeah. Some

20:41Remax took over some offices, um, you know, they're. You mean from a, like a, a monopolistic

20:50standpoint? That's correct. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But yes, they're going to have to shave off some

20:55of the edges, but I don't think this is an administration that is going to be too combative

21:02around this. So yes, they will shave off some of the bumps, but for the most part, I think,

21:07I don't think that the government is going to block this deal. Well, I don't think so

21:12either. And I also am wondering whether they really will force them to do anything. Um,

21:21as far as, you know, any of the markets that they're, they're in, um, where they have huge

21:26market share. So that'll be really interesting. It will be. Uh, my hedge is on that. They won't

21:32do much. Um, and I'm a mostly free market guy. So, you know, to some degree I'm situationally

21:41okay with that. Uh, I just think that there are real, there's going to be cities where it's

21:47a, it's a different issue. Right. And in those cities, that's where it will be a problem.

21:53Yeah. And so what are your thoughts on how this merger will kind of change the industry? Um,

22:00you know, we did see, I mean, the Apollo, any, you know, uh, realogy transaction was huge. I think

22:08that's still the biggest sales date. Um, but a little bit different. Um, so how do you see this

22:16possibly changing the industry or impacting maybe even independence or, um, you know, boutique

22:22brokerage firms? Uh, I I'm going to, I think it's Dickens, the Charles is the best of times.

22:29It was the worst of times. So this really, I think is going to be a tale of two cities. It's

22:34either going to go one way or the other way. And one is a non-event and I'll just do that one really

22:39fast. Uh, it turns out this is a non-event, not a ton changes. We're pretty much doing what we've

22:45been doing for decades. No big deal. Um, I do think, unfortunately, I think that's elite. That's

22:51not as likely because what is possible, I don't know about probable, but it is possible that this

22:57turns into a arms race for listings because if I don't want to, I don't love this analogy. Cause

23:07you know, look, we're talking about real estate, not war. We're talking about, you know, homes being

23:12sold, not nuclear bombs. Right. But just, so let's just to have an analogy to play with,

23:18if it is this sort of nuclear arms race, where everyone decides the only way to compete is to

23:24go private listings, which I think is a mistake as I've clearly articulated, but if that's the

23:29direction, well, then everybody's got to play that game. And if everybody has to play that game,

23:35it becomes about getting big fast. And I think you either need to be really big or really small.

23:42Agreed.

23:42And the middle is what's going to get beat up. Right. So I think there will always be a space for

23:48the 15, 20 agent office in town, mostly full of people who make a full-time living selling real

23:56estate, who are good at what they do. And they're sort of band together and they're servicing that

24:02local community at a really high level. Sure. They're going to have to maybe do some things to find out

24:07where some of these available listings are like, like drive by the office and get the book. I guess

24:14that's been discussed. Like, that's crazy to me. Like talk about regression. Um, but they'll figure

24:20it out and you can be small and successful or you got to be big. And I don't mean big, like 200 agent

24:27office big. I mean, big, like percentage of listing market share. Yeah. I mean, Steve Murray, um,

24:33predicted that years ago, he wrote a whole book about it. I can't remember his game plan or game

24:38something. Um, he wrote two books. So he was in one of those books and I edited part of that. So I

24:43know it was in there. Thank you for your service. Thank you for your service. Well, I came over from

24:49real trends to housing wire with the acquisition. Oh, okay. So I worked to see you for many, many years.

24:55One of my favorite humans, one of my favorite humans. He's a great guy. Yeah. Um, so if it is

25:01that, you know, I, it's the consolidation, it's, you know, people are banding together. It is, I know

25:08I actually wrote about this in my stuff, sub stack and referenced it early, but it's a little game,

25:13game of Thrones. Right. You've got to pick which side you believe. Are you the private listing network

25:19team or are you the, uh, this is leading language, but what are you the, you know, focused on the

25:25consumer team? That's my interpretation of it. Right. Yeah. And so I know what team I'm on,

25:31but everyone's going to have to decide if it goes that route, which is possible. If it goes that

25:35route, everyone's going to have to decide and pick a banner and get behind that banner. And it's time to

25:39go to work. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I want to jump to this pro agent working group, um, that, you know,

25:47Dan Duffy is the only one who's come out from United, um, you know, as the spokesperson for

25:52this group of, I think, 15 brokerage leaders from around the country, um, who are asking for

25:58transparency, accountability. Um, we've done a two part series on it now, um, where our real estate

26:05reporter had an in-depth, um, interview with, with dance. The one that really specifically caught me

26:11is that, um, just transparency over what they're paying officers, um, you know, volunteer leadership,

26:17or even the CEO of NAR and wanting more transparency around what they're using the money for, I guess.

26:25Sure. Yeah. Um, so what are your thoughts on that? And, um, do you think they can make an impact?

26:32Uh, I'll do the impact first. Yes. Um, I think that you, you've got a pretty big group

26:41of influencers, right. And people with, um, and an agent count behind them asking for some things.

26:49And so, yes, I think they can have some influence. Uh, I also think NAR is already migrating that

26:57direction. If I look at what Nikea and her team are doing, they, that's been a common cry for a long

27:07time. Right. And I'm, I think it's okay that Dan and that crew are putting their voice behind it.

27:13And I also think that's the direction that NAR was heading already. Uh, they've got their new

27:19strategic plan that's supposed to come out soon. NAR is coming up in the end of the month or middle

27:24end of the month. And my intuition is that that'll all get rolled out then. So we'll get some more

27:29insight, but no, I like it. Would anyone come on here and be like, nah, we need less transparency.

27:34Like, yeah, no one's going to say that. Um, I do think that, uh, asking for more insight is good.

27:45I think NAR understands that that's something that they have struggled with and are willing

27:50and open to providing. And I think, uh, what's the sunshine is the, is the best way to burn off

27:58the impurities. Right. Like, yeah, I don't, it, some of that depends on how you're wielding the

28:02spotlight. Right. Yeah. Like, are you really trying to just see what's going on or are you

28:08trying, or did you, you ever watch a documentary where it's really obvious that they had a particular,

28:14um, point they were trying to make? Well, those are my least favorite documentaries.

28:19I like someone to provide me the information and I will figure it out on my own. Right. And so

28:23are they approaching this because they really just want some transparency and want

28:28to understand where the money's being spent or are they doing it because there's some

28:34ulterior motive in there already? And knowing Dan and who he is, my intuition is it's the first one,

28:40not the second one. Uh, I, he just wants to know that group just wants to know what are you,

28:46what are you guys doing with all that loot? Yeah.

28:49I think that's a very fair question. I think it's a very fair question.

28:51Yeah, absolutely. Um, I, I just think that I've, you know, Nakia was on stage at the gathering last

28:58year. I was very impressed with her. Um, and I really felt like she not only said the right things,

29:04but I've seen the actions to back it up. And some of the things she's done from, you know,

29:10a brand new leadership team in house and, and, um, kind of cutting operations costs and some of those

29:16things as well, which are, you know, small, maybe small, maybe big. It depends on who you got in and

29:24where you go. But, but I am impressed with her. I am too. Um, look, she's spent a year going to just

29:34about everything and answering just about every question, even the hard ones in front of anyone

29:40who will listen. And I mean, that's leadership one-on-one, right? Like I'm going to get on the road,

29:46I think she called it her listening tour. Uh, I'm going to just listen a lot. And I think she's got

29:52a good sense of who she is and what she can and can't do as a leader and is anchoring into what

30:01she can influence and impact. Will it work? I don't know. Right. Like I miss all the time as a leader.

30:06I try stuff that doesn't work all the time. Just ask my agents. But, um, yeah, so I, I've been

30:12impressed. I've been impressed. Uh, I, I think it's okay if there are some folks who still have

30:18a little more wait and see attitude, that's fine. Trust is earned. It's not given. Right. But, but

30:23from the work that I've seen her do, she is, she has earned my trust. Yeah, absolutely. And her whole

30:29team. She's impacted the state associations too. I know, um, for the first time, Florida realtors did

30:36a whole round the state broker, um, round tables where they met with brokers around the state and

30:42talk to them. And, um, I think they're making it like an every year thing now and learned quite a

30:49bit from it. Um, so I respect anybody who will go into the room and just take the bullets. Yeah. Like,

30:56like, and just, I'm here right in front of you. What do you tell me? I want to hear it. You don't

31:01sugarcoat it. Um, I got broad shoulders. I could take it. And she did that time and time and time

31:08and time again. And then now we're going to find out what the strategic plan is. And then I can tell

31:12you if I agree with that or not. And then we'll see how she executes on that street strategic plan.

31:17And I can give you my opinion on that. But as far as like the, I don't know, we just had the world

31:21series. Right. So like, as far as like the first couple of innings, I really, what more could you

31:26have wanted or expected? Right. I think she's done a great job. Yeah. Um, and I'm optimistic

31:31about the future as well. Well, good. I am too. I've always been a fan of the realtor organization,

31:36um, personally, but I also worked for Florida realtors for, well, and they were, look,

31:42NAR earned some of the rocks. Like they gave the people the rocks to throw at them. Right. So like

31:47it's been earned, but, but are you changing? Are you trying? Are you getting better? Right. And,

31:53and my observation is that they are. And also too, like as an industry, I don't know. I,

31:59I, we've actually talked to her about this. She was on our podcast podcast over a year ago now,

32:04but, um, you know, the advocacy part, even if just all they got, like, like, Hey, if you're listening

32:10and you're in the real estate industry and you enjoy being a 1099 independent contractor,

32:14you should lovingly send that check to NAR every single year, because you don't think that they're

32:21trying to figure out how to remove that status from the residential real estate professional

32:25so they can get more tax dollars. Yeah. Every time they want to try to take that away. And every

32:30time we win, because they lobby really well. Like if, if you just took the advocacy work alone,

32:36that's probably worth what it costs. The average real estate professional.

32:39Absolutely. Absolutely. All right. I'm going to ask you one more longer form question,

32:44and then I'm going to go into some like bonus round lightning round fire. Yeah. Okay. All right.

32:51Okay. Let me sit my coffee. So I'm really ready. Go. All right. I think it was one in your sub stack.

32:55You said the market feels like it's waking up as mortgage rates ease. Yeah. So what in,

33:00what are you looking at and how are you advising agents to respond? Great question. Okay. So

33:06last year, this is going to take a while. You said long form, so brace yourself. I'm not an,

33:10I'm not an economist. Um, but I am an economics nerd. And, uh, by the way, I really enjoyed the

33:18economic summit that you all put on. I thought it was phenomenal. Uh, I will be there every year.

33:22Keep doing it, please. We're doing another one in February. So I will, I will be there. It was

33:26awesome. Um, wait last year in 2024, we had about a 90 day period where rates got below six and a half

33:36and stayed there. Actually, Logan's talked about this time and time again. So, uh, any of your

33:40listeners, this is probably retread ground for them and buyers came back into the marketplace.

33:45So I said, well, there's a hint, right? When rates get below six and a half and when rates stay there

33:51for an extended period of time, minimum 60 to 90 days, and I can explain why then buyers come back

33:56into the marketplace. And when buyers come back into the marketplace, it sort of starts to unlock

34:00everything. And I don't like it just being rate sensitive. And it feels a little like you're a

34:06passenger, right? Like I just have to sit here and wait for race to get better. No, that's not what

34:10I'm saying. Houses are being sold every single month. Go make sure you're selling some of them,

34:14but to get a change in the market at scale, we need rates to go below six and a half and stay there

34:20for 90 days or more. Well, rates are below six and a half and they've been there for almost 60 days.

34:25I think certainly between 45 and 60 days. And there isn't anything that seems like it's going

34:32to change that trend line in the near term. So that means buyers are going to start coming back

34:37into the marketplace. The downside is they're coming back into the marketplace at the worst

34:41possible time because of seasonality. What I mean by that is not the home buyer. The home buyer will

34:48buy whenever they have to when affordability makes sense. Fewer will come back in over the holidays.

34:53That's true, but more than what we've seen. And we, again, we saw this last year, same time of year

35:00rates started to go down and the buyer still came back into the marketplace.

35:04So agents, if you're listening, Christmas isn't canceled, but huddle up with your family,

35:10huddle up with the people that you know and love and say, Hey, mommy or daddy's got to work a little

35:15extra this winter because there is a window in which you have an opportunity to either close out

35:2220, 25, strong or kickoff 20, 26, really, really strong because rates, you now have tailwinds for

35:31the first time and who knows for how long, hopefully for a long time, but certainly for the first time

35:36in the last year and really for the first time in the last three to four, right? Rates have been on a

35:42steady historic meteoric rise up for four years prior to lately, nearly four years. So we finally have

35:49some tailwinds y'all like it's finally not just getting just wind, just pounding into your face.

35:56It's actually at your back a little bit. Let's go like, start right now. You should have started

36:00a few weeks ago, but don't miss this because I hope it stays into 2026 and rates are below six

36:07and a half for a good long time. And we have a great 20. That'd be awesome. But just in case we

36:11don't and something crazy happens and rates go back up towards the end of this year or early next

36:16year, go get like, there's a window right now. It's happening. You're missing it. And if you can

36:22hear my voice, text a past client, not while you're driving, pull over, stop the car. But like, you've

36:28got to plug back into your business right now because the, it is defrosting and it is here and

36:36it is coming. And if you miss the wave, you will miss the wave. And I hope there's another one right

36:41behind it. I hope we stay below six and a half for a long time. That'd be great. But just in case we

36:44don't work your tail off for the remainder of this year and watch the results you get.

36:49Well, I know Florida agents are, they're reaching out to as many New York city, uh, people.

36:53Yeah. Yeah, they are. Yeah. Yeah. Anyone from like, I don't know, Raleigh, Durham to Canada

37:00on the East coast, they're reaching out to, right? Yeah. Yeah. Although Texas is going to penalize

37:05them if they move there. So I don't know. Texas will Texas. You can't, uh, you can always count

37:10on that. Definitely. All right. Lightning round, uh, lightning round. I'm very bad at this,

37:15but I'll do my best. One trend. Do you think most agents are underestimating right now?

37:20AI. A business model outside real estate that the industry can learn from.

37:26Ooh, I don't know how to do this rapid fire, but once, once in a fever dream, I wrote out a

37:33subscription service for real estate where they would pay a monthly basis. Uh, uh, when you buy your home,

37:38you pay on a monthly basis. And then at some determinate point in the future, seven, 10,

37:42whenever down the road, you would sell your home, but it would be at a discounted commission. Um,

37:48but because you were paying all along and then we would take care of things like filters for your

37:53home, uh, handyman once a year, blah, blah, blah. Uh, so, uh, I guess the subscription as a service

37:58would be my short answer, but I had to give a little context. Okay. The three traits, every agent of

38:022030 should start developing today.

38:08Comfort with pace of change in technology, relentless commitment to the human being in the

38:14transaction. 2030. Yeah. It's 2030. So five years from now. Yep. Um,

38:22a healthy understanding and fear of AI. Okay. Yeah. Um, so if the compass anywhere merger doesn't

38:37happen, what is your prediction on how the industry shifts? I don't think it does. I think it stays the

38:43same. Okay. Uh, and your favorite real estate metric to track each month and why for us, it's

38:49per age of productivity. Um, that's what we are hyper-focused on, uh, for my business owners,

38:55it's profitability. Uh, but for an individual, for, for the two things that I look at are profitability

39:00of my franchise owners, uh, and then per age of productivity for our company. If I get those two

39:06right, everything else take care of itself. That's, that's the truth. Well, Keith, thank you so

39:10much for joining real trending. I appreciate having you on. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. Yeah.

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