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  • 12 hours ago
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00:00Why aren't you worried about valuation? So I think valuation needs to be part of your process but not the anchor to your process.
00:06And here's why. Because when we're comparing current multiples in the market relative to history, number one, it doesn't take into consideration the sectoral and market cap differences with history.
00:16It doesn't take into consideration balance sheets or the earnings profile or the debt profile.
00:21It is not an apples to apples comparison. Fourteen times one time at one point is very different than 14 times today.
00:30And I'm not saying we're going to trade back to 14, by the way, to be clear.
00:33No, that's a great point.
00:34I think we can trade at higher multiples because we have better information, balance sheets are stronger, and the market composition, the index composition is very different.
00:43Do I recognize that we are at the top end of a historic range? 100%.
00:47And we have to factor that in. But I'm not going to let that stop me from leaning into the highest quality compounding earners.
00:54I noticed when we saw the opening bell today, we had two IPOs ringing the opening bell, one at the NLT, one at the NASDAQ.
01:01And we've had $4 trillion of M&A already this year.
01:07We've had $6 trillion of bond issuance.
01:10So a record there, which seems to indicate financial conditions are not very tight, but also, like, there's a lot of exuberance and confidence in this economy.
01:20Yeah. Let me just underscore that point.
01:23Financial conditions are not tight.
01:24They are relatively loose at this point.
01:26And I think that's really encouraging CEOs and entrepreneurs to think about coming to the market.
01:32You know, we have been encouraged by the deal activity and what that does for the financials.
01:37We've been constructive on the financial sector, not just because I work at a bank, but also, you know, potentially watching what deregulation does in terms of getting more deals to market and getting more issuance.
01:46And so I think that's going to be a theme into the beginning part of 2026.
01:50But it's a disconnect, as I'm saying, with some investors who are invested but are a little bit worried by the duration of this move.
01:58And I think because everyone is not all in all the time and investor sentiment is not exuberant, there's potential for further upside into year end.
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