00:00The world got a bit of a scare just before Halloween, when President Donald Trump announced
00:04America's military would immediately resume testing of its nuclear weapons.
00:10Talking about literally resuming underground nuclear detonation tests.
00:15You'll find out very soon, but we're going to do some tests again.
00:17Other countries do it. If they're going to do it, we're going to do it.
00:20Now, the United States already tests its nuclear launch and delivery systems,
00:25but those tests just don't include nuclear detonations. And as it turns out, the new
00:31testing Trump is referring to won't actually include any nuclear detonations either.
00:37At least that's what Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News.
00:41That doesn't mean the U.S. can't or won't do underground nuclear tests in the future, though.
00:47In fact, every U.S. Congress since the 1990s has made sure the U.S. retained the power to perform
00:53underground nuclear testing.
00:57So back in 1963, the U.S. and most other nuclear powers signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty,
01:04which banned nuclear tests anywhere on land, in the atmosphere, in space, or underwater,
01:10but not underground.
01:13So it is technically legal for nuclear weapons states like the United States or Russia or China
01:22to test underground.
01:24Daniel Schaub teaches political science at the University of Nebraska.
01:28He says while it may be legal, since the end of the Cold War, most nuclear powers have agreed
01:34not to do any nuclear testing that requires actual nuclear detonations.
01:39There's been a few exceptions to this. India and Pakistan tested in the late 90s.
01:43Pakistan got its nuclear weapons in the late 90s.
01:46And North Korea has been testing sort of on and off again throughout the 21st century.
01:51Another agreement, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, would completely ban all nuclear
01:57testing, regardless of where it happens.
02:00But that is something we've only signed as a state.
02:04We signed that in 1996.
02:06We have not ratified it.
02:08So the Senate has yet to give their stamp of approval on it.
02:12And it's unlikely that they will because it's been several consecutive administrations that
02:16have decided this isn't in the interest of the U.S. national security to completely limit
02:20nuclear testing.
02:21So when is it appropriate to perform an underground nuclear test?
02:26To help answer that question, I turned to retired Air Force Lieutenant General Mark Wetherington.
02:31He's a former deputy commander of U.S. Global Strike Command.
02:35Well, I think, you know, the United States conducted just a little over 1,000 tests between the late
02:421940s and 1992.
02:45We've got an exquisite set of data, a lot of mathematics, a lot of advanced modeling techniques.
02:53And so I think there's a general feeling that we can do modeling and simulation and do some
03:01advanced analytics and high-powered computing and really understand all we need to understand
03:08from the existing data.
03:09However, you know that all elements of our nuclear triad are under modernization right now.
03:18You know, our adversaries, Russia has modernized its nuclear capabilities in the last several
03:24decades.
03:25The Chinese are undergoing a remarkable expansion right now.
03:29And so having been away from it for a couple of years, what I would say is if there is concern
03:36with the reliability of the stockpile or if there's concern that we're redesigning the weapons
03:44to a degree that might require some additional data or a better understanding or just a confirmation
03:50or validation of what we understand about their reliability and their performance, then it may
03:56warrant conducting a test.
03:59If conducted, the tests would likely take place in either the New Mexico or Nevada deserts.
04:06General Wetherington and Schaub both say there would be benefits and drawbacks.
04:10New tests means new data, and they could also be used as a form of deterrence, given all
04:17the uncertainty in the world.
04:18In some ways, nuclear weapons are a familiar thing.
04:21They're very big, very powerful bombs that, in theory, hopefully deter other actors from
04:26using those very weapons against us.
04:28Maybe leaders, maybe the administration's turning to that to sort of mitigate the uncertainty
04:33in international politics right now.
04:35The drawbacks to resuming nuclear detonation tests beyond the obvious environmental impacts
04:41and high costs associated with performing them would likely be most evident in how America's
04:48adversaries react.
04:49If Russia takes this as a signal, well, now it's time to build up our stockpile since the
04:54United States is, that could be problematic.
04:57China actually has a great deal to benefit if the world sort of returns to an era of nuclear
05:03testing because China hasn't tested all that many nuclear weapons.
05:07And so they don't really have those sort of refined techniques to predict the effectiveness
05:11of these weapons.
05:12There's also the possibility of non-nuclear weapon states like Iran that is potentially
05:18seeking a nuclear weapon that they might take this as a signal to proliferate themselves.
05:25And so we just don't know how many of these actors, these foreign states will interpret
05:33what it is that the administration is saying.
05:36And it's not like there's not a history of misinterpretation of signals between the U.S.
05:42and adversarial nations, right?
05:45Yeah, there's certainly a lot of evidence that sometimes we certainly miscommunicate with
05:51one another.
05:51So to recap, when President Trump said the U.S. is going to resume nuclear testing, what
05:57that likely meant is the continued testing of existing launch and delivery systems, as
06:04well as the new systems that are coming online now and in the future.
06:09For their part, both Beijing and Moscow deny any part in any recent nuclear detonation tests.
06:15Russia did announce some successful tests of a nuclear-powered cruise missile and a nuclear-powered
06:21torpedo, but those did not include detonations.
06:26China is calling on the U.S. to maintain the current moratorium.
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