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US President Donald Trump claimed that Pakistan, China, Russia, and North Korea are conducting secret underground nuclear tests.
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00:00Good evening, it's a sensational claim by U.S. President Donald Trump.
00:05In an interview to an American channel, Donald Trump said Pakistan continues to carry out underground nuclear tests,
00:10but they don't tell the world about it.
00:12He said words to the effect that these tests are carried out way underground,
00:16where people don't even get to know what's happening.
00:19All that you feel is a little vibration.
00:22And Trump says Pakistan is not alone.
00:24Countries like Russia, China and North Korea are doing the same.
00:28Now, is this President Trump's justification to carry out nuclear tests
00:32for the first time in the United States of America since 1992?
00:37Trump claims secret nuclear tests by Pakistan.
00:54POTUS, U.S. to conduct nuclear tests.
00:58Russia launches new nuclear submarine.
01:11Global nuke arms race on again.
01:18World heading to nuclear flashpoint.
01:21That is our big focus on India First.
01:24So, for the first time since 1992, do we see a mushroom cloud over that Nevada desert in the United States of America?
01:37President Trump claims China, Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, they've been carrying out tests,
01:42but they are not talking about it.
01:43Russia, incidentally, has just launched a nuclear submarine.
01:46Ukraine, it's Khabarovsk, it's designed to carry the underwater nuclear drone called the Poseidon,
01:53also known as the Doomsday Missile.
01:56Now, that's capable of intercontinental travel and massive destruction.
02:02Now, instead of nuclear disarmament, are we looking at a massive nuclear arms race across the world
02:07with newer and deadlier weapons?
02:10And is this just nuclear posturing by President Donald Trump and President Putin?
02:15We debate that.
02:16I'm Gaurav Savant.
02:17As always, let's get started with the headlines on India First.
02:26Halloween hangama in the state of war.
02:29Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attacks RJD Chief Lalu Yadav for a Halloween party,
02:35says RJD busy celebrating international festivals, calls RJD and Congress anti-Hindu.
02:42Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's
03:07Pappu, Tappu and Appu attack on Rahul Gandhi, Tejasvi Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav,
03:14calls SPRJD and Congress Hindu Drohi and Shriram Drohi.
03:20Akhilesh Yadav hits back, says many Gappus in the BJP.
03:25Shashi Tharoor's massive dynasty attack.
03:53Is it on the Gandhi, says dynasty politics, a threat to democracy,
03:58claims politics has become family business.
04:06Big crackdown against businessman Anil Ambani.
04:09Enforcement directorate attaches his properties worth over 7,500 crore rupees
04:14in an alleged money laundering case.
04:16Anil Ambani's residence in Mumbai's Pali Hill has also been attached.
04:23Fugitive Mehul Chokhsi files an appeal in the Belgium Supreme Court against his extradition.
04:32Earlier, a lower court in Belgium had permitted his extradition to India.
04:36U.S. President Donald Trump dropped a bombshell justifying his decision to order a nuclear test
04:49by the United States of America for the first time since 1992,
04:53claiming countries like Pakistan, North Korea, China and Russia have been carrying out nuclear tests.
04:58But since they're not democracies, the world does not hear of these tests.
05:02The U.S. incidentally, is the only country in the world to have dropped a nuclear bomb twice.
05:08On the 6th and the 9th of August in 1945, over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the Second World War.
05:14The U.S. last conducted a nuclear test in 1991.
05:17But do we see a mushroom cloud over the Nevada desert once again,
05:23either in 2025 or 2026, especially after Russia just launched its newest nuclear submarine,
05:31the Khabarovsk, designed to carry out underwater nuclear drone,
05:35Poseidon, also known as the Doomsday Missile.
05:39U.S. President Donald Trump has dropped a bombshell.
05:52Trump's recent interview has set alarm bells ringing across the globe.
05:56The U.S. Army Commander-in-Chief claimed nuclear-armed nations are secretly testing weapons deep underground.
06:02He did not stop there, but also claimed that India and Pakistan were on the brink of a nuclear war.
06:10And according to him, he was the one who stopped it.
06:14Trump claimed,
06:15U.S. does not necessarily know what nuclear powers are testing,
06:19but asserted the testing is being done.
06:23Now, seismic agencies across the world would strongly disagree.
06:27Global sensors are designed to pick up exactly those vibrations.
06:30India hasn't conducted a nuclear test since Pokharan in 1998,
06:36sticking to a unilateral moratorium.
06:39Today, India has roughly 180 nuclear warheads.
06:43Pakistan, about 170.
06:45China, which has nearly 600, is racing towards 1,000 by 2030.
06:52New Delhi isn't reacting to Trump's comments.
06:55But one thing is clear.
06:56If China is surging, Pakistan is shadowing and America is shifting.
07:00India may soon have to decide whether its nuclear silence still serves national security
07:07or if it's time to change strategy.
07:11Bureau Report, India Today.
07:13So, are we looking at a new nuclear arms race with Russia launching a nuclear submarine with underwater nuclear missiles
07:24and U.S. talking about a nuclear test to check its delivery mechanism and systems?
07:30So, as of now, there are nine nuclear weapon states in the world.
07:34U.S., Russia, U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
07:42Nine nuclear weapon states.
07:44As on January 2025, the world has a total of 12,241 warheads.
07:52That's the total number of nuclear warheads in the world.
07:54Russia sits on top with an estimated 5,459 warheads.
08:00The United States, very close behind, we're at 5,177.
08:04China, incidentally, is rising fast.
08:07As of now, it sits on about 600 nuclear warheads.
08:10But since 2023, China has been adding close to 100 warheads to its inventory every year.
08:16France and U.K. from the next year, they're between 290 and 225 each.
08:22India and Pakistan.
08:24India, 180 plus.
08:25Pakistan, 170 plus.
08:28Israel, incidentally, keeps it under wraps.
08:31But according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
08:34Israel has about 90 warheads.
08:37North Korea, close to 50 nuclear weapons.
08:40So, each warhead is seen as a weapon, not of destruction, but of deterrence.
08:47Because the thinking is, once you have a nuclear warhead, there will be no war.
08:52The apprehension, of course, is that with artificial intelligence and advanced weapon delivery mechanism,
08:58the race is becoming deadlier and the world not so safe.
09:03There's news.
09:10So, the U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, has issued a clarification.
09:15Chris Wright says, there are no plans for a nuclear explosion in the United States of America.
09:23Speaking to journalist Chris Wright clarified that the upcoming trials in the United States of America,
09:30ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump, are non-critical explosions.
09:36So, these, according to him, are tests of components, tests of delivery systems,
09:42and not a nuclear blast, not a nuclear explosion.
09:47This comes after President Trump said that he directed officials to start our nuclear weapons testing
09:53on equal basis with rival nations.
09:56So, Chris Wright insists Americans, especially those near the historic test zones
10:01like the Nevada National Security Site, have no reason to worry.
10:05No worries about mushroom cloud or a radioactive fallout.
10:09He says the test will simply verify the weapon systems, the geometry,
10:14without triggering a nuclear chain reaction.
10:18So, that clarification has just come.
10:20So, is the world staring at a massive nuclear arms race?
10:34Is there merit in U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that countries like Pakistan, China, Russia, and North Korea,
10:39they carry out tests but don't tell the world about it?
10:42And does this justify his decision to order America to carry out nuclear tests?
10:48And what should one make just now of this information that's coming in?
10:51United States Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, saying that the planned nuclear test will only be of non-critical features.
11:00Will not feature any nuclear explosion for now.
11:03Joining me on India first is Air Marshal Anil Khosla, former Vice Chief of Air Staff.
11:08Glenn Carl, former officer in the CIA's Directorate of Operations, will join us in just a moment.
11:15Sushant Sarin is Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, keeps a hawk eye on developments in Pakistan.
11:21Also joining me on this broadcast is Sandeep Unithan, Senior Journalist.
11:24And let me begin by asking you, Sandeep, does the devil lie in the detail?
11:31Russia launching its nuclear submarine, designed to carry this underwater nuclear drone, known as this doomsday missile.
11:40Are America and Russia now locked in a nuclear arms race?
11:44Well, absolutely, Gaurav.
11:47You know, 2025 is in that sense a watershed year because this is the first time since the end of the Cold War in 1991
11:56that we're seeing so much of activity related to nuclear weapons.
11:59And Russia has just launched this new submarine, the Khabarovsk, which is a Poseidon missile carrier, a Poseidon torpedo carrier.
12:08And that is a completely new class of weapons.
12:12I mean, you know, you have your traditional triad of nuclear weapons, which is land, sea and air launched weapons.
12:20And this is a completely new type of weapon.
12:22This is a very large underwater torpedo, which is a nuclear powered.
12:28It's a nuclear powered torpedo, it carries a massive several megaton warhead, which is capable of, you know, as the Russians claim, inundating entire cities with that blast wave.
12:44So it's a completely new type of weapon system that Russia has fielded.
12:48Of course, they've been developing it over the last decade.
12:50And they say it's in response to the US anti-ballistic, pulling out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty.
12:56But, you know, Gaurav, the other important thing is that this year is probably the first time.
13:01You just saw that massive parade that China had in September, where they distributed their triad of nuclear weapons, all capable of hitting the United States.
13:11This is the first time in history that you're seeing three nuclear powers not friendly towards the United States.
13:17That is North Korea, China and the Russian President.
13:21All of them having nuclear weapons capable of targeting the United States.
13:25So a lot of the rhetoric that you see coming out of the US from what President Trump just said has to do with this fact that you're looking at a very new kind of arms race where a large number of countries now have the weapon system, the delivery platforms and new types of, you know, nuclear missiles, underwater nuclear torpedoes capable of targeting the United States.
13:50So let me bring in Glenn Carl into this conversation.
13:56Glenn Carl, is this posturing by President Trump?
13:59First saying US will carry out a nuclear test and now Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarifying, saying that the planned test will be of non-critical nature and there will be no nuclear explosion?
14:10I don't think that's accurate.
14:13I think that's accurate.
14:15I mean, it's posturing in the sense that all diplomatic statements and moves are posturing.
14:20All of this is, it is all signaling.
14:23And in this instance, a critic as I am of Donald Trump, I don't want to imply that that is denigrating what he's done.
14:32So, yes, it is posturing.
14:35I don't believe, however, that the US will conduct nuclear explosions at this point.
14:42I mean, various officials have said, no, no, this is just going to be testing of the various components.
14:48And it is, or as my predecessor just said very accurately, these are responses by the United States to a substantially changed and changing international environment with regard to nuclear powers.
15:05Okay.
15:07A. Marshall Khosla, President Trump said words to the effect that countries like Pakistan, China, Russia, North Korea, they carry out tests.
15:15But since they aren't an open society, since they're not democracies, perhaps that information does not come out in public domain.
15:23Is that even possible in today's day and age, given the satellites and given that every seismic activity is very closely monitored across the world?
15:33Yeah, Gaurav, you know, the clarification by the energy minister, the Chris Wright, I mean, gives a hint to that.
15:40See, what is happening is, when the nuclear weapons were being developed, enough testing went on.
15:46For example, United States itself from 1945 to 1992 carried out 1,054 tests.
15:52That amounts to almost two a month.
15:55That kind of testing went on.
15:58I mean, so did the other country, other nuclear power.
16:00So, the development of the weapon as such is complete.
16:03But what is happening is, with the new technologies coming in, the delivery systems are changing, like rightly brought out, you know, new dimension has been added underwater, besides land, air and sea.
16:15And also, the warheads and the weapons are improving, like MIRVs coming in, where multiple targets can be engaged with a missile.
16:25So, two test teams in the nuclear domain, these tests, I think, are being carried out in a sub-critical way, which they are talking about.
16:33Not a mushroom over Nevada, but tests are being conducted.
16:37That is what is happening.
16:39So, that is why these seismic activities may not be there, but these tests are going on.
16:44Sushant Sarin, is there merit in some reports from Pakistan that the nukes from the time of General Parvez Musharraf, since early 2000s, were actually either monitored or controlled by the United States of America?
17:00Can Pakistan conduct tests and U.S. President not know about it?
17:04You know, because satellites or seismic activity, they're all monitored very closely.
17:08I don't think they can carry out tests, unless, of course, there's a similar sub-critical level of tests.
17:19I don't think they can carry out an underground nuclear explosion and not be found out.
17:25Maybe it's possible in China, given the vast land space, maybe in Russia, but in Pakistan, certainly not.
17:32I don't see that happening.
17:34Second, I'm a little skeptical about these reports about the Americans having control over Pakistani nukes.
17:40I would imagine that when questions were raised about the safety of Pakistani nukes, the Pakistanis were cooperating with the Americans to ensure the security of their nuclear weapons.
17:53But would they have handed over control of those weapons to the Americans?
17:58I seriously doubt it.
18:00You remember, I think, in the last week or last two weeks of the Biden administration, there was a testimony given in Congress where one of the senior officials had claimed that there are serious concerns over Pakistan developing missiles which could reach the United States.
18:19And given its nuclear weapons, it constitutes a threat to the U.S.
18:25So there are concerns, certainly in the U.S., about the Pakistani nuclear program.
18:31But whether they have control of it, if they had control, why would they be so concerned about the Pakistani missile breach?
18:42And finally, you know, there is certainly a lot of reports that have come out in the past that the Pakistanis have what is supposedly the fastest growing nuclear weapons program.
18:55How many warheads they have is at best an estimate, perhaps reasonably accurate.
19:00But they have been going hell for leather in getting nukes.
19:07Now, I don't know if they've had to test something and the Americans know something that we don't know.
19:14But I don't think they've carried out any underground test.
19:17In any case, Donald Trump talks, he's not very precise in what he's saying.
19:22You know, he's saying something, but it's not something which is very carefully thought out, carefully worded.
19:28He just lets it out there and then, you know, the whole world goes into a bit of a tizzy trying to figure out what the hell is he trying to say.
19:36Does he mean what he's saying? Is he saying what he means?
19:40So that's another problem. And, you know, your guess is…
19:44But we are looking at an arms race already, Daniel Silverberg, aren't we?
19:47Your understanding of this Russian nuclear submarine and underwater nuclear drone and President Trump talking about keeping up with other nuclear powers.
19:56Are we looking at deadlier weapons, deadlier delivery mechanism?
20:01Air Marshal Khosla was talking about the multiple independent re-entry vehicles.
20:05So one missile dropping multiple nuclear warheads.
20:09Gaurav, it's good to be with you again.
20:12I, frankly, I am not buying the hyperbolic statements around this.
20:18I don't think that there's anything different today than what was happening yesterday.
20:23Experts know that Russia has been pursuing all kinds of various novel nuclear technologies.
20:30The same thing with China.
20:32The only thing that's new today is that President Trump said something offhanded.
20:36And as the previous guest rightly observed, was likely off the cuff, imprecise, and utterly unclear what he meant.
20:46I feel pretty confident saying that he did not mean that there's going to be a resumption of nuclear tests in the Nevada desert.
20:54It's logistically challenging.
20:55It really makes no sense to do it.
20:58And, frankly, it's out of step with what is U.S. nuclear posture.
21:06Now, what often happens when President Trump says something, and it's important to understand the effect in Washington.
21:14When President Trump says something offhanded, it then creates its own weather system of activity.
21:19The Pentagon then has to respond and explain, well, what kind of tests are we doing?
21:24And then Secretary Wright needs to explain, well, it's not exactly an actual explosion.
21:29It's merely an ongoing test.
21:31The bottom line is, don't pay attention just yet to Trump rhetoric.
21:37As so many of his own officials say, watch what he actually does.
21:41I feel pretty confident that there's not going to be a nuclear test, and there is not a significant change in the nuclear posture among China, Russia, and the U.S.
21:53Okay.
21:54Though the timing, you know, the first time he said it, just moments before his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping,
22:00and then he reiterates it a couple of days later in his interaction with the American media, then on board.
22:06So, Sandeep, reports now in the USA, you know, you heard Chris Wright speak to the American media where he said that these are sub-critical experiments.
22:16You know, perhaps avoid the nuclear chain reaction, test the delivery mechanism, test components, but no detonation of a nuclear warhead.
22:27But, Sandeep, could this then set off a chain reaction?
22:30Will Russia carry out, you know, tests in retaliation or response?
22:36Or is America doing this in response and then it is a vicious cycle?
22:41Well, Gaurav, you know, the United States doesn't really need to test new weapons.
22:47I mean, if they were to do that, they would only test it as a thing of political signaling.
22:53Because they have, you know, like you mentioned, more than a thousand tests, there's enough data to, you know, create several generations of new nuclear weapons.
23:03So, the United States doesn't really need to test new weapons, unlike, say, many of the other, you know, potential nuclear weapon states
23:11or those with smaller arsenals who want to, you know, test new types of, you know, thermonuclear weapons or something like that.
23:18But the U.S. will have to test if it has to send out a political message, a political signal of that sort.
23:24And what the U.S. officials then came back to correct what the president said is something that the U.S. has been doing for decades now, ever since it stopped it.
23:35All of the subcritical testing has been going on for several decades.
23:38The U.S. has one of the most advanced nuclear arsenals in the world.
23:42You know, the kind of miniaturization that the U.S. has achieved with its nuclear arsenal is the envy of every other nuclear weapon state.
23:51And that is the reason why these statements, that it comes from a position of strength.
23:57But, I mean, of course, you're looking at the rhetoric around this, where you have multiple countries now,
24:03which threaten the United States, and they are signaling, so it is quite possible that they would test before the United States does.
24:10Like, you know, I'm talking of countries like North Korea, for instance, the Russian Federation,
24:15which is involved in a very, you know, long war of attrition in Ukraine.
24:20That has, and Russia has actually come closer to testing a weapon, in fact, in the battlefield,
24:26than has any other country in the recent past.
24:28So, is that the signal, is that the signal, Amashal Khosla, which could trigger an arms race?
24:35And, you know, in the India-Pakistan context, with Pakistan working on the tactical nuclear weapons,
24:40and as Sushant Sareen was also pointing out, Pakistan is adding numbers to its nuclear arsenal at a very fast pace.
24:48As is China, 100 warheads every year since 2023 is the assessment.
24:54Your assessment, sir, of the capabilities of our neighbors, Pakistan and China, and the road ahead.
25:01Is there any lesson here for India?
25:04Yeah, definitely. I mean, we are facing two nuclear-powered adversaries on both the sides.
25:10And China, as I covered earlier, is racing with the USA.
25:13And, you know, if you see, interesting part is that China has never been part of any of the arms control deals
25:18which have been taking place in the early years.
25:20Their stance has been that, you know, it's a discrimination between haves and have-nots.
25:26And once we get that have status, then we will talk to you.
25:30Then we'll sit on the table and talk about, you know, arms control and whatever.
25:34So, that is where China is.
25:36As far as Pakistan is concerned, you know, obviously, China, when it rises, Pakistan will benefit.
25:43But the worrying part of Pakistan is, you know, the saber-rattling which it does.
25:47All these years, it's been holding the nuclear saber in one hand and doing terrorism,
25:52the acts of terrorism on the other, which the myth has been broken now with Palakot and Afshindur.
25:59But, you know, there's a cause of worry.
26:01You know, one is this nuclear saber-rattling.
26:05Other issue, a small issue which you brought out, you know, you mentioned the tactical nuclear weapons.
26:09This term has come in a lexicon of all the defense analysts.
26:13I don't understand what a tactical nuclear weapon is.
26:16I mean, nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon.
26:18If you throw a nuclear weapon at the other person, it is, whether it is a tactical or a strategic
26:22or I don't understand what high capacity, low capacity is the nuclear weapon.
26:26And the country should respond as per the nuclear policy.
26:32In fact, I'm going to come in a little later to talk about whether there's need to relook India's
26:36no-first-use policy.
26:37But that's just in a moment.
26:39Sushant Sareen, as A. Marshall Khosla was pointing out, has India comprehensively called out
26:45Pakistan's nuclear bogey punishing Pakistan, not just in Palakot 2019, but Operation Sindur
26:53in 2025, effectively also sending out a message that even before Pakistan can think of putting
27:00together its nuclear delivery mechanism in place, India will bomb it.
27:05That message goes out loud and clear?
27:06I think part of the message goes out loud and clear that Pakistan cannot hide behind its
27:14nuclear shield and not expect any retaliation from India if it carries out acts of terror
27:21on Indian soil.
27:22So I think that message has gone across, which for the longest had not gone to Pakistan because
27:27they were hiding behind a nuclear umbrella.
27:29I think the latter part of your question, I would not be as cavalier as to think that message
27:37is also gone across.
27:38Because I suspect, I have no evidence, it's only on, again, I was just telling you don't
27:44take Donald Trump what he says seriously, but he's been saying it for about 50 or 60 times
27:49when he talks about the possibility of a nuclear conflict.
27:52And you look at the events of May 10th, when we were hitting them very hard, what suddenly
27:58changed in the American calculation?
28:00Till the 9th of May, the Vice President of the United States was saying it's between Pakistan
28:06and India, the Americans don't need to enter this conflict.
28:10And suddenly on the 10th of May, there are alarm bells ringing.
28:14So what were the Pakistanis telling the Americans?
28:16Were they trying to threaten some kind of a nuclear conflagration?
28:21And if, for example, we start hitting them really hard, what are the options?
28:27Will they use or will they lose?
28:29So, you know, these are very serious questions.
28:34And I'm sure both the military planners as well as the strategic planners in India should
28:39take these into account.
28:41And it is in the light of whatever conclusions you reach that you might need to re-evaluate
28:46and reassess your no-first-use posture.
28:49Although I think we have raised a bit of a question mark around it in previous announcements
28:55by different ministers and officials, including a former prime minister who once said that
29:01if Pakistanis think that we'll wait until they launch on us before we retaliate, they
29:06have another thought coming.
29:07You have Mohamed Parikar saying certain things when he was the Raksha Mandri.
29:12So you've had those statements.
29:13But has that been operationalized?
29:16Have the doctrines changed?
29:17And have the systems been put in place to, you know, for a no-first, to junk the no-first-use
29:25and go in for a preemption strategy?
29:29Again, I don't have any answers to this.
29:31I'm not privy to anything official.
29:34But that is the sense I can make from whatever is there in the public domain.
29:39Glenn Call, whatever Russia is doing right now, whatever China is doing or not doing,
29:45you know, adding 100 overheads to its inventory every year, is it resulting in President Trump
29:52thinking that he needs to step up?
29:55And do we need, okay, give me a moment as we try and reestablish this link with Glenn
29:59Call.
29:59We just seem to have lost him.
30:02Sandeep, reports in the US suggest that these are, you know, some kind of sub-critical tests
30:08that are happening.
30:09In the India-Pakistan context, Sandeep, are we looking at, look, we have a stated no-first-use,
30:15policy and it was reiterated very recently that India is a very responsible nuclear weapon
30:20state.
30:21But considering what Manohar Parekar seemed to indicate, that if there is a chemical attack
30:25on India or a biological attack on India, India may respond.
30:30Is India bringing a little bit of strategic ambiguity that if India knows that there will
30:34be a nuclear attack, there would be a preemptive strike?
30:37Well, Gaurav, you know, I tend to agree with what Sushant said, that while there might have
30:43been statements like this, you know, I was there in that room when Manohar Parekar made
30:47that statement at the IDSA.
30:49IDSA.
30:50But, you know, the bulk of, I mean, there has been nothing to suggest that India has revised
30:58its no-first-use stance.
31:00And in fact, the statements that come out of the Indian establishment about nuclear weapons
31:07and NFU, that they can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
31:10So, it's safe to assume that there has been no revision of our NFU status and there's been
31:15no such debate as of now.
31:17There have been these one or two odd statements.
31:20But apart from that, there's nothing to suggest that we have revised our thing based on any
31:24other, you know, whatever external factors are at play, whether it is the rising number
31:30of weapons in the Chinese arsenal or in the Pakistani arsenal.
31:35I mean, there is possibly going to be a time when we will have to take a call on that because
31:39the numbers then, you know, become overwhelming.
31:42And you're looking at a very different scenario faced with two of these nuclear weapons.
31:47But as of now, Gaurav, it doesn't seem like there's any debate at all about revising…
31:52Glenn Carl, do you see a nuclear arms race being triggered by these statements or this is
31:58just a flash in the pan, it's a statement that he's made and it'll be back to normal in
32:03the next couple of days?
32:04I don't think either one is really the case.
32:10The arms race, the nuclear arms race, has really been returning slowly for a period of
32:1910 years or 15 years even.
32:22That's why I think surprisingly, or I think many of us, what Donald Trump has said is actually
32:28in line, fuzzy as it is, as all of our colleagues have said, not only does he not necessarily
32:35know what he's talking about or intend what he's saying, but he really has only the most
32:44superficial understanding of what he's trying to say.
32:48However, it goes back to the Bush administration when the nuclear dynamics started to significantly
32:55shift with the lapse of test ban treaties or intermediate nuclear force agreements and so on,
33:05and known cheating by the Russians combined with now for a dozen years or so, a much more
33:14aggressive China with regard to nuclear weapons development and policy.
33:18With Pakistan and North Korea's developments, the world is a much different place than was
33:24the situation when you had a bipolar series of agreements and dynamic on nuclear issues.
33:31So what Trump has said is in line with the slow shifting of the United States to respond to this change
33:39and dynamic. By continuing to adhere to the nuclear agreements with Russia, the former Soviet Union, to which China is not a signatory,
33:51the United States has been hamstrung in developing new technologies and actually even in maintaining the capabilities of its nuclear force.
34:02So Trump's statement is in line with that, that things are changing.
34:06And this is a sense, in a sense, a way of freeing up or signaling that the United States will not be constrained anymore in responding to this change dynamic.
34:16So surprisingly, Trump's statement, incoherent and confusing as it is, typically,
34:22is in line with the changing international dynamic and 15 years of U.S. slow response to this changing dynamic.
34:30So, Daniel Silverberg, all this talk of disarmament, all the disarmament effort, clearly on the back burner.
34:40But is this not counterproductive? Donald Trump is, he likes to be seen as a man of peace, like a dealmaker,
34:48someone who's stopping, as he claims, eight wars.
34:51You know, except Thailand and Cambodia, wars are still raging.
34:55So is, so are tensions.
34:58Does it not take away from his image of a man of, of a dealmaker and a man of peace?
35:04I think your audience is going to see Trump however they want to see him.
35:10The same thing in the United States, Gaurav.
35:11As the other panelists said, Mr. Trump is going to be saying all kinds of things, some of which people love and others that will, will lead to a lot of rage.
35:25I want to point out this.
35:27I think the previous speaker hit on a really important point.
35:31I think Donald Trump was trying to signal something here to the Chinese.
35:35The timing was not accidental.
35:39I think what he was trying to signal is, we recognize that you are actively making advancements in your nuclear arsenal, China.
35:49We are not going to stand idly by while that happens.
35:53Now, the way he expressed that might have been in classic fashion, a little bit more chaotic and disjointed than one might want.
36:00But that is a position that both the Biden administration, even the Obama administration, and certainly the Trump administration have embraced.
36:08And even Congress, for the last 10 years, has funded both nuclear tests, to the extent that involves making sure that the equipment is sound, and funded things like the Sentinel program.
36:24The U.S. remains committed to the nuclear triad.
36:30That is not changing.
36:32Congress continues to fund it.
36:33There's nothing new about the U.S. nuclear position.
36:39What could be different is whether one believes Mr. Trump is going to actually start nuclear tests.
36:49And I just don't think so.
36:51Yes, but there is a change, and the signal was very clearly to China.
36:57The timing, as you rightly pointed out, was just before he met President Xi Jinping.
37:03In the light of what's happening around the world, Air Marshal Khosla, and since you are Vice Chief, is it time for India to relook its no-first-use policy?
37:14Officially, even very recently, India made it very clear we are a very responsible nuclear weapons state.
37:20We have a clear no-first-use policy.
37:23But whether it's former Defense Minister Manohar Parikar, or some others, they seem to have indicated, is there a need to bring in strategic ambiguity?
37:31Yeah, definitely.
37:35And my reply is not because I was Vice Chief.
37:38This is my personal view, and nothing to do with the government of India, obviously.
37:42You know, we have been counted as a very responsible state that we don't do nuclear saver rattling and all sort of things like Pakistan.
37:52But I have a, you know, my personal opinion is that we have nuclear weapons.
37:57You know, we don't have to do saver rattling as such.
37:59But we can always unsheathe the saver, you know, polish it and maybe put it back.
38:04And that will suffice to give some signals.
38:08You know, in major power like Russia has done it when Ukraine war, they put their nuclear weapons and the nuclear apparatus into high alert and exercises indicating, you know, the use of nuclear weapons in case need be.
38:22So, I think there is a time has come when we can, I mean, resort to some sort of a nuclear signaling.
38:31Because Russia has signaled that, Russia has carried out those tests, except China and India.
38:36No other country has a no first use policy.
38:39So, Shansarin, you wanted to come in quick 30 seconds, sir.
38:43Look, there are two things out here.
38:45You know, one, yes, we've been very responsible.
38:47We have not indulged in nuclear saver rattling.
38:49But I wonder sometimes, has that compromised our nuclear deterrence?
38:55Because, you know, a lot of things we don't do because the other side is a nuclear weapons power.
39:00So, we don't want to, you know, upset the strategic stability.
39:04That does not stop the other power from doing it.
39:06So, has there been some gap in the kind of signaling we have been doing?
39:11Secondly, I think you have to look at a possibility when you're talking about a two-front situation, Gaurav,
39:16and two nuclear-armed states in China and the Pakistanis acting in concert against India.
39:23There is always that possibility.
39:25At what point do you decide that you need to start resorting to nuclear weapons for your own security and for your own defense?
39:34At what point?
39:35I think these are questions that we have to ask ourselves.
39:38It is one thing to say NFU against a non-nuclear state or a smaller state which does not have any military heft.
39:46It's quite another when you're looking at a two-front situation and significant territorial or other damage being inflicted on you
39:55because both those states are inimical and acting in concert.
39:59So, I think these are things that need to be worked out rather than, you know, stay by that old mantra that was given 30 years back
40:07of no first use and just stick to it as though it's some kind of gospel which cannot be changed.
40:13I think it's a dynamic situation and we need to make policy and strategy in a dynamic manner rather than, you know…
40:22Let the other person feel nervous.
40:23Let the other person feel nervous about what India may do next.
40:27Bring that strategic ambiguity on how we will respond.
40:31Some of it is coming in because now India's neighbors are nervous about how India will respond to terror and so many other aspects.
40:38But do we need to be a little more aggressive in our stance?
40:42That's a debate for another time.
40:44I want to thank our guests for joining me on this part of the debate.
40:48Pakistan is very nervous right now and you can see this from activities across the border and commentary in their media.
40:57But what's happening on the side of the border that's making Pakistan very nervous?
41:01There's a tri-series exercise that's currently happening in the burning desert of Rajasthan and along the coast of Gujarat.
41:07The army, the navy and the air force, they're carrying out joint drills.
41:10Now, exercise Marujwala is a part of the larger tri-services exercise called Trishul that's bringing land, sea, air, digital combat, elements of digital combat.
41:23So, cyberspace also comes in.
41:26All five elements of exercise are part of warfare, are being integrated.
41:33So, it's an integrated battle network.
41:35Troops of the Shabazz division under the Sudarshan Chakra Corps, they carried out a high-intensity maneuver.
41:41Look at those images of that high-intensity maneuver.
41:43Everything from your unmanned aerial vehicles to your network-centric operations, real-time battlefield surveillance systems coming in.
41:53What was the aim?
41:54Sharpen coordination across services.
41:57Validate MDO, multi-domain operational awareness, readiness, operations, all of that.
42:03And this exercise actually reflects the army's ongoing push.
42:07What is that ongoing push?
42:08Use of technology on warfare.
42:10Remember Operation Sindhurt, there was a lot that was validated, but there are more concepts that are coming in.
42:15What are we talking about?
42:16We're talking about reforms, technology and technology absorption.
42:21How quickly can you absorb the technology in your armed forces?
42:24And this technology is made in India.
42:27So, you also have your scientists and your operators who are studying this real-time.
42:30How do your systems perform in real-time battlefield scenario?
42:35So, the aim is to have this future-ready force equipped with modern fighting equipment.
42:43In the Mahajan field firing ranges, there was firing that was carried out.
42:47Now, I also want you to listen in to left-hand channel Manjinder Singh and his very clear message to a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror.
42:57You hear it from the army commander himself.
42:58We have infused new training techniques, the new technology which has been inducted in the Indian Army.
43:17We will showcase you today in use of drones, counter-drones, how to protect our tanks from drones, how to use the counter-drone equipment.
43:26As the time will grow, our equipment and troops will be trained.
43:31And the ability of our counter-drone will grow further.
43:34I want to bring in Sandeep Unnithan once again into this conversation.
43:40Sandeep, it's going to be six months of Operation Sindur very soon.
43:43So, there was a lot that the armed forces learnt from Operation Sindur, best practices and what would future operations look like.
43:52Because every operation in the past has been different from the one that had been war-gamed earlier.
43:58Bring us details of what Trishul and Marujwala are all about.
44:06Well, Gaurav, you know, we are seeing an unprecedented level of exercises across frontiers, whether it's the southwestern frontier of India in the north.
44:17The Northern Command just finished an exercise.
44:20You have another set of exercises happening in the northeast as well.
44:23So, this is a time, possibly in decades, that you've seen multiple fronts, exercises across multi-fronts.
44:29And this is basically signaling to our adversaries that there are no opportunities for you to strike at us through.
44:36But, you know, this Marujwala exercise is very interesting, Gaurav.
44:39It is the hot phase of the overall Trishul 2025 exercises.
44:44This is the purely army and, you know, network-centric part of the exercise in the desert.
44:52Marujwala, of course, means the desert flame.
44:55And here the army is trying to test out its new network forces.
45:00You have T-90 tanks, you know, fighting through the night using GPS, you know, operating in a GPS-denied environment.
45:08Apache helicopter gunships, you know, attacking enemy tanks.
45:11You know, this is literally the strike core element, the Sudarshan Chakra core, the strike core element of the Indian army, testing and validating all its concepts, if it were to strike the enemy.
45:23And as we know, Gaurav, the strike core is very unique.
45:26The Indian army strike core, there are four strike cores.
45:29They have no tasks on Indian territory.
45:32All their tasks are across the border.
45:34So, this is the Indian army validating and testing its concepts, all the new concepts that we've seen of war fighting, whether it is network forces, you know, knife fighting capabilities and drones.
45:45The most important thing here…
45:46You know, what's very interesting, Sandeep, and our viewers must know this, that India's adversaries came together during Operation Sindur.
45:53So, the message this time, and especially when you see the vast area where exercises are being carried out, you have exercises that are happening along the Rajasthan and Gujarat area, you have exercises that were happening in eastern Ladakh, and you have exercises that are happening or will happen or have just happened in the northeast.
46:10So, and these are all offensive operations.
46:14So, even if the adversaries were to come together, the sting would hit the enemy and hurt the enemy across.
46:23So, very clearly, India's message is, we can fight on multiple fronts.
46:29Absolutely, Gaurav.
46:30And we can fight on multiple fronts and the services are all fighting together seamlessly in a way that we've been talking about, you know, tri-services operations.
46:39You're talking about jointmanship, you know, theater commands.
46:44All of this is actually playing out in real time.
46:46You know, you have marine commandos, for instance, embedded with the army.
46:50They're fighting with the army.
46:51So, you know, you have naval elements with the army.
46:54You have the tri-services maneuvering.
46:57You have the landing platform docks, the Jalashua landing ship tanks with the elements of the army in it.
47:02So, it's a complete tri-services operation of the southern flank, basically warning that there is no window of opportunity for you to try any adventure, you know, any misadventure.
47:17That is the kind of messaging that these exercises, these unprecedented series of exercises are warning our adversaries.
47:23Like you mentioned, Gaurav, West, North, Northeast, every avenue of, you know, advanced approach is being blocked.
47:30It's been, you know, being exercised with troops which are literally short of full combat preparedness.
47:38They're, you know, at full readiness, ready to strike.
47:42And let's not forget, Gaurav, you have Operation Sundur.
47:45That's an ongoing operation.
47:47And an exercise can be converted into an offensive very rapidly, Gaurav.
47:53And that is something that the Pakistan military understands, which is why they're on a high state of alert as well.
47:58And they've spooked, Gaurav.
48:00They're spooked.
48:01I mean, they combat air patrols.
48:03And remember, Pakistan is a proper state.
48:05Pakistan doesn't have money for two square meals a day for most of their population.
48:08Almost 50% of their population is below poverty line now.
48:12And their, you know, precious Pakistani resources are going into flying combat air patrols because they fear, they fear there could be something.
48:21And as the Prime Minister has repeatedly said,
48:23The enemy must always fear you.
48:28If the enemy likes you, then you're not good enough.
48:30Then when the enemy fears you, then you know your armed forces are doing their job or your country is doing its job effectively.
48:37Sandeep, for the moment, many thanks for joining me.
48:40I now want to shift focus to that political battle that's now being fought in the state of Pihar.
48:46So just two days to go for the first phase of elections.
48:51The campaign really fiery right now.
48:54From Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Katta remark to Yogi Aditya Nath's Pappu Tappu Appu Jaib to Akhilesh hitting back with the Gappu Jaib to Rahul Gandhi taking a dip in a pond in Begu Sarai.
49:08It's like a huge political battle and it's a prestige battle for all sides in Bihar.
49:15With just few days to go before Bihar heads to the polls in the first phase, the political temperature is soaring.
49:41From caustic insults to splashy campaign stunts, the battle for Bihar is taking every form.
49:50On the campaign trail in Darbhanga, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath bated into the contest with sharp barbs.
49:57Taking a swipe at the Mahagat bandhan, he invoked Mahatma Gandhi's monkey analogy, calling Rahul Gandhi, Teja Suyadav and Akhilesh Yadav, Pappu Tappu and Appu.
50:11In the name of the name of the Valu, Pappu, Tappu, Tappu and Appu, Pappu, Tappu, Tappu and Appu, Tappu say not to say good things,
50:31Prompt came the response from the opposition alliance.
51:01At another rally, the India's biggest vote magnate, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sharpened
51:22the rhetoric by calling the Mahagatabandhan's leadership tussle, akatta or country gunfight.
51:29The Prime Minister not only highlighted the fisheries within the opposition alliance but
51:34also revived the Jungle Raj debate, a central theme of the BJP's Bihar campaign.
51:39The Congress and the RGD have been killed by the RGD.
51:49The Prime Minister's katta remark was met with a fierce counter-attack from the Mahagatabandhan.
52:11From the Mahagatabandhan.
52:18The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:19The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:21The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:23The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:24The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:26The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:28The Prime Minister of the RGD.
52:32but we have to listen to this language today, we have not seen any language like this.
52:42This is the time for the time to take a day, take a day, take a day, take a day, take a day, take a day.
52:52That's why I believe that he has become a new mantra.
52:57But as the war of words raged on the rally grounds, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made waves in Baigusarai.
53:22In a dramatic outreach to the Mala community, he jumped into a muddy pond,
53:26joined local fishermen and said they have always had his back.
53:36Rahul was accompanied by son of Mala Mukesh Sahani, the Deputy Chief Minister face of the Lions,
53:42as part of Congress' outreach to the Nishad on Mala community, which makes up around 2.6% of Bihar's population.
53:49As phase one voting nears, Bihar's campaign has turned into a spectacle of one-liners and optics.
53:58The real pole issue of jobs, migration, inflation are lost in complex caste churn that tends to decide which way Bihar swings.
54:07So, with the revision of the SIR or the Special Intensive Revision of the Electoral Roll and the Jan Suraj Party and Prashant Kishore in these elections,
54:25these elections in Bihar are like none other and trust India today to get you the latest and the most accurate poll analysis and much more.
54:36That is all I have for you on India First this evening.
54:38Many thanks for watching.
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