Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Analysis of Key Match-Up & Predictions

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00:00This is one of my favorite games for the day.

00:02I do believe that Oklahoma potentially could bounce back.

00:05They got exposed by Ole Miss as a five-and-a-half-point home favorite.

00:08Matier hasn't looked in rhythm, especially in the passing attack.

00:12Hasn't really thrown for over 200 yards since he's come back against Texas in that thumb surgery.

00:19But this is an opportunity, I believe, to explore the Tennessee defense, giving up 30 points per game.

00:24We saw Kentucky put up 30-plus in the victory last week against that front seven.

00:29In that defense, I think Oklahoma bounces back, and I do expect a much better effort today with their defense.

00:35By the way, if we do look at the line itself, right, Oklahoma at Tennessee today opened up at three-and-a-half, Joe.

00:39Now sits at two-and-a-half.

00:41If you're just reading the line, we've been around the block quite a bit here.

00:44That is a stone-cold Oklahoma line, only getting two-and-a-half on the road at Rocky Top.

00:49For me, I look at this game at 54-and-a-half, 55-and-a-half, depending on where you're shopping, and say,

00:52you know what, I do until we get points, but I'm willing to fall into the trap, Joe.

00:56Ticket count here, roughly 50%.

00:58But, again, just looking at the line, that's a lot of respect for Oklahoma who hasn't played great football at this point

01:03and an offense on Tennessee that can move it.

01:05The question marks for me, Joe, come up, the quarterback position.

01:08I think I have the better quarterback on Tennessee today.

01:10I do.

01:11Well, I mean, he's definitely playing like that with Joey Aguilar, averaging well over 300 passing yards per game.

01:16They're also rushing for 188 yards on the ground.

01:19They have a three-headed monster with Lewis Bishop and Star Thomas in the rushing attack.

01:24Can they have that type of consistency up against that front seven in Oklahoma that's only giving up 84 rushing yards per game?

01:31I think, and I'll just say this, Joey Aguilar's a gunslinger.

01:36You take the good, the bad, and the ugly, he's performing at an elite level this year.

01:40I mean, this offense is averaging 45 points per game.

01:43If they get humming against Oklahoma at home, they're going to be very difficult to upend in this matchup.

01:50But you saw Ole Miss extend that defense over the top.

01:53Can Aguilar do the same?

01:55I'm not so sure.

01:56Again, you know, Lane Kiffin had a perfect game plan last week.

01:59This is still an Oklahoma defense holding opposing quarterbacks to 56% completion percentage, less than 200 yards per game.

02:07They play very solid third-down defense.

02:09I think that's the recipe, and I think Mateer can expose this defense in Tennessee's on the perimeter.

02:15Hasn't run as much in recent weeks.

02:17Last week was a wet track in Norman.

02:20This week, with an elimination game and everything on the line, I expect to get the best version of John Mateer.

02:26Tennessee, over the past couple of seasons, dominant at home, 16-2 overall.

02:31But I think the more experienced quarterback with the better defense on the road in this particular spot, I'm willing to take the two-and-a-half.

02:38I did take them plus 126 on the money line, one of my better picks today.

02:42Seasons are on the line here.

02:43And, again, both of these teams with two losses.

02:45Like, you are going to get some SEC teams in the college football playoff with two losses.

02:49You're not going to get them in at three.

02:50It's just not going to work out.

02:51So, Joe, let me ask you this question.

02:52Like, John Mateer coming into the season, high expectations.

02:55Pre-injury, John Mateer may be winning the Heisman Trophy.

02:58I'm not saying he's been bad since he's been back, but when you have that pressure of one more loss can do you in,

03:04I'm hearing, you know, chirps that maybe Michael Hawkins Jr. should be the starting quarterback today.

03:09If Mateer struggles, he comes in because, as we like to say, Joe, there is no tomorrow if you lose this football game today.

03:14No, it's all hands on deck.

03:16I mean, and I told you when we broke down the Texas game about four weeks ago that I thought Oklahoma did a disservice to the team

03:23because even though Mateer wanted to play, let's say, they could have held back Mateer to potentially a second half,

03:30allowed Michael Hawkins to play who was the healthier quarterback, and at the very worst, you could sell it that Mateer wasn't in the lineup

03:37to where if they were an at-large team down the road, that would always be in the back pocket.

03:42John Mateer didn't play against Texas, and now we're at 100%, whereas we saw a couple of years ago,

03:48Jordan Travis and Florida State could be left out in the college football playoff because they were on a backup quarterback.

03:55I thought the benefit would, you know, be the Brett Venables in that situation.

03:59They didn't do it.

04:00He hasn't thrown for over 200 yards, but they did gut out a road win a couple weeks ago against South Carolina, right?

04:06They dominated that game 26-7, and we saw South Carolina push Alabama to the limit this past Saturday.

04:13Again, it all hinges on the defense.

04:15If Mateer's not playing well, they could go to Michael Hawkins, a better runner,

04:21but it does hinge on this Oklahoma defense to potentially win this game on the road.

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