00:00We are looking at the most exciting elections for the first time in the Netherlands.
00:05Having five parties who could potentially end up at us as the biggest.
00:09I think we should have a new government before Christmas.
00:12We have been standing still for too long already.
00:15We are too naive when it comes to our dependence from China.
00:19So I think it's good that we think about it and take some action.
00:23We should move towards the United States of Europe.
00:25With a strong European government that is able to speak with one voice against China or the US.
00:30But I see now a broad consensus that nobody wants to govern with Geert Wilders anymore.
00:36Because chaos is the last we need in the Netherlands.
00:38And I think everyone saw that if you get Wilders you get exactly nothing.
00:45For more on this story, Bloomberg's Oliver Crook joins us now from The Hague.
00:48Oli, just talk us through what shape this new coalition is likely to take.
00:51Now that Wilders far-right Freedom Party, of course, has lost us its advantage.
00:58Well, Lizzie, what's really interesting about the Dutch political system.
01:00It has some peculiarities that are very separate from a number of other European governments.
01:04For one thing, there are 15 parties that are represented in the government.
01:08And that is expected to continue again.
01:10You only need 0.67% of the vote in order to get a single seat.
01:14So we talk about political fragmentation in Europe.
01:16This is kind of the prime example of that.
01:19So the likelihood is that basically we're going to get a coalition of at least four parties.
01:23It could be up to five parties.
01:25But what's also interesting, Lizzie, is that going into this, the polls have shown vastly different things.
01:29You could have anything from three to five different parties being the biggest party
01:33and actually getting the prime minister seat, which is the sort of little tower right behind me.
01:37That's the prime minister's office.
01:38So that could be any one of these parties.
01:40So these polls are underway.
01:41It's open right now.
01:42What is going to be very interesting is to see what sort of clusters will be able to form a government going into this.
01:48And this is going to be a very close election.
01:50We should say that more than 50% of the voters as of yesterday going into this are also undecided.
01:55The few things, Lizzie, that are fairly certain going into this election is one,
01:59you're probably going to end up with a more centrist government, a more traditional government than what we saw from the last government.
02:04Remember, this was the first time that Heert Wilders, who is the longest serving a member of this parliament,
02:09has ever actually been invited to be part of the government.
02:11Basically, from all the lawmakers I've spoken to and much of the reporting around this,
02:15that experiment over, the Wilders experiment is over after he pulled the plug on the government.
02:19We're going to see something that is much closer to traditional politics within the Netherlands.
02:23And that will also mean, Lizzie, significantly, probably a more constructive government with regard to the European Union.
02:30But we're going to have a sort of a clearer idea of what that will look like a little bit later today.
02:33About 9 p.m. is when the polls close. We'll get those exit polls.
02:36We'll have an idea to sort of begin what the coalition building could look like starting tomorrow morning.
02:42OK, so given those potential clusters and what might come out of this, what's it likely to mean for policy?
02:47Because Villers, of course, has been really tough on migration.
02:53So when you think about the three domestic issues for the Dutch, and we'll sort of focus on those first,
02:57the number one is housing. This is something that we see universally across the world.
03:01It is a severe problem here in the Netherlands. This is one of the most densely populated countries within all of Europe.
03:07They have issues with getting materials for new building, permits for new building. That is one of the main issues.
03:11Of course, immigration has been, again, another universal problem around Europe and one of the main political animations.
03:17It is really what drove Villers to be the biggest party in the parliament the last time around.
03:22And there's also questions about costs of health care and the price of living in general.
03:27Those are going to be the three main domestic issues. But Lizzie, where this has become significant at the European level
03:31and at the global level is Netherlands on a couple of issues.
03:34And the main issue, and one that I think there's been a very interesting evolution over the last couple of months.
03:39I mean, I just spoke to the sort of Christian Democratic Party yesterday about this.
03:43They have moved their position on joint debt around the European Union.
03:47That is a shift that happened this year. Yes, in part historically because of what happened in Ukraine and the need for the defense buildup.
03:53But the election of Donald Trump has been a wake up call for many within the political spectrum within Europe.
03:57And now you have a conservative party, a frugal party.
04:00This is one of the frugal four that is basically openly talking about joint debt, issuing euro bonds in order to finance defense spending within Europe,
04:07which is a significant shift. And that is something you could see with this next government, something that is more constructive with the European Union.
04:13And Lizzie, the last point, something that we've been talking a lot about on Bloomberg, is basically the fact that the Dutch government has retaken possession of Nexperia that has completely roiled this chip market.
04:25This Dutch company chip maker that has been owned by a Chinese company, now the Dutch government came in and took control of it.
04:31They do not have an exit strategy yet to how to resolve this issue that has caused massive problems for Volkswagen, for Toyota, for all of these global automakers.
04:38So those are the domestic issues. And of course, on the global stage, Nexperia and this question of joint debt are going to be critical issues for the outcome of this election.
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