EU Leaders Paving Way to Greener Climate Goals

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00:00How are countries doing with their 2035 emission-reducing targets?

00:05Absolutely. Thank you so much for having me, Lizzie.

00:08So countries have been very slow to submit their updated climate plans.

00:13And these plans are known as nationally determined contributions.

00:16And they're due every five years under the Paris Agreement.

00:19And they should contain countries' 2035 emission reduction targets.

00:24But as you say, we're just two weeks away from the first day of COP

00:27and only 62 out of 195 parties have actually made their submissions on time.

00:32Wow. OK. So what about the EU's emission reduction targets, if that's the country-level ones?

00:36Absolutely. So even the EU, you know, a long-time leader on climate ambition,

00:40has missed two deadlines to make its submission.

00:44And one reason is because it's been looking to submit its 2040 target

00:48before making its decision on its 2035 target.

00:52And its 2040 target would be a 90% reduction from 1990 levels

00:56by 2040, and that would amend its European climate law.

01:01But EU leaders have been unable to come to an agreement.

01:05So last month, the Council of the EU did submit a range

01:08of what its likely 2035 targets could be,

01:12which is between 66.25% and 72.5% reduction

01:16from 1990 levels by 2035.

01:20But again, they haven't come to a formal agreement on this.

01:24And, you know, anything above a 70% reduction would be in line with a net zero pathway.

01:30OK. So the deadline's approaching.

01:32Things are not looking good.

01:33Why is the commitment so slow?

01:36Is it the Trump effect, perhaps?

01:38Well, it's actually because the EU has been looking to submit this 2040 target ahead of the 2035.

01:46And the biggest area of contention is the use of international carbon credits.

01:51So EU leaders right now, they disagree on how flexible these credits should be.

01:56Right now, member states can use up to a 3% reduction.

01:59But again, they just disagree on what this should look like,

02:03and they haven't been able to come to an agreement yet.

02:05And so if you've got less momentum, and it seems like ambitions are weakening,

02:12how does it all affect how fast we actually solve the issue on the climate?

02:16Yeah. So with the EU submissions missing, and as you say,

02:20with President Donald Trump removing the US from the agreement,

02:23it certainly has contributed to a downturn on global climate ambition.

02:27And so with just two weeks away from COP,

02:30we do expect most economies to make their submissions by the end of the conference.

02:35But we don't necessarily expect these to be net zero aligned.

02:38OK. Well, I can feel the urgency, Bryn Mary Merkley,

02:41analyst from BNF's European Transition Team.

02:43We thank you so much for that analysis.

02:45And you can find it on the terminal.

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