00:00Let's start broad and talk about where we stand in markets at this point because you take a look at September performance. This was supposed to be a bad month seasonally speaking. Instead we're on track for the fifth straight months of gains. Can we keep this momentum going through year ends.
00:15Well we think a lot of good things are happening from a policy backdrop and therefore ultimately a macro backdrop. The deregulation that we're seeing is stunning. It started with crypto and AI. We have a crypto and AI czar now. And I think what many people have not paid enough attention to mostly because tariffs have been getting all
00:41the headlines given how chaotic they seem. But in OB three so the one big beautiful bill. There was a tax policy measure that we're not sure has been integrated into many
00:56forecasts yet. And it has to do with depreciation moving from depreciation to full expensing of structures that has never happened before. Manufacturing structures for
01:10the next three years in the first year they go into service. They will be able to expense fully in that year as well as equipment domestic R&D and
01:23software. So music to innovations years I would say. I think we're to have a boom in economic activity. That first one the manufacturing structures is
01:35just for three years. The other ones have been made permanent. And so this takes our effective corporate tax rate in the United States. Not statutory. That's still at 21. But the
01:48effective tax rate for the next three years at least is going to be roughly 10 percent. One of the lowest in the world. So I think we're in for some very good times. We think we're moving from a rolling
01:59recession into a recovery and then into a productivity driven boom in activity. OK. So you mentioned fiscal policy. I want to get your take on
02:10monetary policy as well because your fund feels like it's inversely correlated with rates. You get a big boost from lower rates with those tech
02:16holdings those innovation companies. How far down do you see interest rates headed with an incoming Fed chair who will be probably much more aligned with
02:24President Trump's goal of lower borrowing costs. Well first of all Katie if I could if I think that was Katie or maybe it was
02:33Scarlett. It was Scarlett. OK Scarlett. I apologize. Also if you look at our performance in 2017 and 18. So when interest rate fears were
02:47rising and then interest rates rose our portfolio outperformed in both years significantly. And 2018 was a down year. We were up. So
02:59I I just I know that Covid the boom bust around that time period got a lot of people thinking OK inversely correlated to interest rate.
03:09Historically that has not been the case. So just wanted to make that comment. In terms of the Fed. We
03:17do think interest rates will continue to come down. But if we're right in in 2026 at some point it will be clear we're moving into a
03:28productivity driven boom. What does that mean. Productivity is one of the most potent anti inflationary forces. This is this is
03:39Reaganomics. It's deja vu. And you'll see back then in the 20 years that ended in the tech and telecom bubble. Real growth was very
03:49strong. And during those moments in time inflation came down to surprisingly low levels. And we think that's going to be true next year as
03:59well. In fact we would not be surprised to see inflation well below 2 percent next year.
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