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00:00And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
00:04Romain Bostic alongside Katie Greifeld taking you through to the closing bell with a global simulcast.
00:09Carol Masser and Tim Stenevich join us from the radio booth.
00:12Welcome to all of our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including Carol Masser, our partnership with you two.
00:18Yeah, exactly. Across all of our platforms, we've certainly seen markets bounce around,
00:23definitely off their lows of the session as we head into a close.
00:25Kind of a quiet market, but I do feel like, Katie, got a lot of things coming at investors, a potential government shutdown.
00:33We also had some big news in terms of the war in Gaza, and we're also awaiting a jobs report on Friday,
00:40if indeed we don't get that government shutdown, which, of course, that could prevent the data from coming out.
00:46Right. That's the big if, whether or not we actually do head into what a lot of folks are saying looks more certain than not,
00:52that we are going to see this government shutdown as both sides dig in.
00:57Do you think it happens, Katie?
01:00All right. So we keep an eye and we talk about sort of where this market is going, guys.
01:04And I just want to just kind of point out, we talk about the idea that seasonally this was supposed to be a month where,
01:09if not certainly a down month, certainly one that was going to be a little bit more muted.
01:13You look at the gains we're sitting on and you look at what sort of led us to those heights
01:17and the multiple record highs that we've had so far this year and, of course, this month alone.
01:22And the big question right now is whether that continues for the rest of the year.
01:26Interesting note out this morning by the strategist over at Goldman Sachs talking about the ability for a year-end rally
01:32and positioning in this market seems to suggest the same.
01:35We talked about it last week, the idea that everyone is selling puts,
01:38the idea that people are protecting more against potential upside melt-up rather than any sort of downside,
01:44the idea that accommodate a Fed, potentially accommodate a fiscal policy,
01:48and an earnings season up ahead that a lot of people have high expectations for,
01:52that that could keep the rally going.
01:54Green across the screen here on this Monday afternoon with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up about a tenth of a percent or 70 points.
02:01The S&P higher by about 18 points or a quarter of a percent.
02:04NASDAQ composite up about a half a percentage point, as is the NASDAQ 100.
02:09The Russell 2000, that is your relative laggard, but it is going to close in the green only up by about a point.
02:15But I think given all of the concerns out there, Carol Masser, coming into this week, I think a lot of people will take it.
02:20Yeah, it's really kind of fascinating to see the continued churn higher.
02:24I mean, earlier in the session, you kind of had an even split between winners and losers.
02:27But, Katie, here at the close, 308 names in the S&P 500 gaining ground on this Monday, 195 to the downside.
02:35Yeah, pretty good breath for what are pretty contained moves on the benchmark level.
02:39Same story when you take a look at the sectors.
02:42The circle is very green today, consumer discretionary and tech leading those gains.
02:47If you're looking for something to nitpick, you're going to find it in communication services,
02:52off by about half a percent, and you're going to find it in energy, off by nearly two percent.
02:56But as you can see, by how small that slice of red is, that has very little bearing on the overall benchmark.
03:02All right, guys, let's get to some individual gainers.
03:04I had to talk about AppLovin because this one at its highs today, up about 11 percent,
03:08finishing the day with a gain of about six and one-third, one percentage point, 6.3 percent.
03:14It's a top gainer in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, I believe hitting an all-time high today.
03:20It's a mobile app marketing company.
03:22And analysts have been weighing in on this one in a big way, raising their price targets,
03:26creating new street highs one after another.
03:29I mean, on Friday, Piper Sandler raised its price target to 740 from 500.
03:33On Friday, also UBS raising its targets to a street-high view of 810 from 540, stock closing at 712 and change.
03:41Today, Morgan Stanley raised the target on it to 750 from 480.
03:46A little catch-up there, maintaining its overweight rating.
03:49Basically, what analysts are saying, they're talking about momentum in gaming, staggering profit margins, phenomenal growth.
03:55That stock has more than doubled this year.
03:58All right, got to talk to cannabis stocks.
04:01Investors pretty high.
04:02See what I did there?
04:03I know.
04:04It's so lame.
04:05Tilray Brands, ticker TLRY, up about 61 percent here at the close.
04:10So pretty much finishing the day at its highs of the session.
04:13President Trump posted a video on social media yesterday that touts medical benefits of hemp-derived CBD for seniors.
04:22So we saw some excitement in that name.
04:24And I just wanted to put out Electronic Arts.
04:27I mean, this one about to be public no more.
04:30Stock was up about 4.5 percent.
04:31This is after agreeing to sell to a group of private investors in a deal that values the company at about $55 billion,
04:37marking the largest leverage buyout on record.
04:40I think there was about $20 billion in debt that's going to be part of that deal.
04:43And that's after about a 15 percent jump in the stock on Friday.
04:46Can I just add an honorable mention, the big move we saw in Etsy today.
04:48I would expect no less from you.
04:49Up about 16 percent, Carol Masser.
04:51I know you're a big shopper.
04:52That's the best day going back to 2022.
04:54But all this idea of integrating ChatGPT and the chatbots into the platform here,
04:59both Etsy and Shopify getting nice bids on the day.
05:02Don't tell my husband, though.
05:03I thought you were my friend.
05:05All right.
05:06I want to go with some of the stocks that were lower today.
05:09Hard to find them, but I got three for you.
05:11Carnival Corporation, the parent company of Carnival Cruise Lines, among many other brands,
05:15the largest cruise operator in the world.
05:17For much of the day, it was the worst performing stock, down 4 percent on the day.
05:21It was the worst in the S&P 500.
05:23Even though the company came out with record revenue, adjusted earnings per share for the
05:27third quarter, that beat the average analyst estimate.
05:29And they raised their full year earnings forecast for the third straight quarter.
05:33They said there's a record pace for forward bookings and improving net yields for next year.
05:37They've already got half of what they have offered booked up already.
05:41That's for the year of 2026.
05:42We did speak to the company's president and CEO just moments ago.
05:47He said the trajectory is good.
05:48The consumer is strong.
05:49He's extremely optimistic.
05:50And he's seeing strength from everywhere in the United States right now.
05:55Still shares finished down 4 percent today.
05:58William Sonoma shares fell 4.7 percent.
06:00This was actually the biggest decliner in the S&P 500.
06:03It's the owner of West Elm Pottery Barn and more.
06:06President Trump out saying that he would levy new tariffs to boost the domestic film and
06:09furniture industries through a pair of sweeping plans.
06:12He did post today that he would be, quote, imposing substantial tariffs on any country that
06:16does not make its furniture in the United States.
06:19It is unclear exactly how that would work because companies, not countries, manufacture furniture
06:23and the duties are charged on specific imports, not governments.
06:27The White House did not respond to a request for further details.
06:31Shares of Williams-Sonoma down 4.7.
06:33Romain, you have that cloud couch, right?
06:36About $8,000 or something.
06:37I don't even know what that is.
06:38No, I don't.
06:39I sit on the floor.
06:40I'm still using my futon.
06:41Futon guy.
06:43It's ever since college, right?
06:44I mean, honestly, best $200 I ever spent.
06:47Okay.
06:48Beyond Meat, shares just cratered today, down 36 percent.
06:52Lowest on record.
06:54The company made an offer to debt holders that would erase more than $800 million of debt.
06:58The offer allows debt holders to replace convertible notes with new bonds and shares of common
07:02stock with 40 percent, 47 percent of holders already agreeing to the exchange.
07:06Romain.
07:07I just want to put an honorable mention on there.
07:08You saw the drop in open door.
07:10I know you're a big fan of that, Tim Stenovich.
07:11Meme.
07:12And, of course, those shares are down for a second straight day.
07:14A lot of criticism right now about what Eric Jackson has been doing.
07:17Of course, that vigil outside of Drake's house in Toronto and now other investors basically
07:22saying that, look, be careful.
07:25All right.
07:25We do want to turn back to some breaking news, and this evolves the budget impasse going on
07:29in Washington.
07:30We are learning now that Republican and Democratic lawmakers are now currently meeting with President
07:35Trump at the White House to hopefully try to create some sort of deal to avert a government
07:42shutdown, which would take place at the end of tomorrow, Tuesday, the end of September
07:4830th.
07:48I do want to check in on yields because, believe it or not, I mean, that was actually a big
07:52focus for a lot of the market moves that we saw today, particularly when it came to
07:57the rise that we saw in gold, particularly when it came to the drop that we saw in the
08:00dollar.
08:01And we did see a bid come into Treasuries.
08:03That actually pushed yields down across the curves.
08:06Modest drops, to be sure.
08:07One basis point on the short end of the curve and three to four basis points on the longer
08:11end of the curve.
08:12But, obviously, this is going to be way in focus, particularly if we get to tomorrow night
08:16without a deal, particularly with that big jobs report hanging over us this Friday.
08:21All right.
08:21Speaking of reports, we do have some earnings starting to come out ahead of the official
08:25start of earnings.
08:26Vail Resorts out, and we are seeing this stock down a little bit in the aftermarket, down
08:31maybe about 2 percent.
08:32Let's get to the outlook.
08:33Seas 2026 total reported EBITDA of $844 million to $906 million.
08:40It also talks about the fourth quarter, the quarter that was.
08:43Fourth quarter loss per share of $5.08.
08:46That's a little bit steeper than what the street was expecting for.
08:49They were looking for a loss of $4.73 a share.
08:52Fourth quarter net revenue, $271.3 million.
08:56That, too, is just a tad light.
08:59The estimate on the street was $274.4 million.
09:02And they also talked about fourth quarter total skier visits at $753,000.
09:08And excuse me, the estimate on the street was $772,916.
09:13So you can see the stock, like I said, down already this year, about 20 percent year to
09:18date, taking another hit to the downside, guys, down about three and a half percent here.
09:22Yeah, more bad news for Vail.
09:23Light across most measures, as you mentioned, Carol.
09:26And you think about what a rough year it's been for Vail in 2025.
09:29That ski patrol strike all the way back from January.
09:32Certainly some bad PR there.
09:34They actually brought back their old CEO, so a boomerang there incurring some costs there.
09:40You add it all together and another rough quarter for Vail.
09:43Yeah, Rob Katz taking over for Kristen Lynch a little earlier this year.
09:46Surprised, I think, a lot of people that he actually came back.
09:49I'm looking at the press release and buried in the press release is some
09:51information that investors might not love.
09:54Past product sales through September 19th, 2025.
09:57Remember, they have the epic pass.
09:59The idea is you buy it early.
10:00So revenue for the year is not as bumpy, but it gives a good idea of who's going to
10:04actually be visiting those mountains and that portfolio of mountains for the remainder of
10:08the year.
10:09And into next year, those sales decreased approximately 3 percent in units, though increased
10:15approximately 1 percent in sales dollars as compared to the prior year period through
10:18September 20th.
10:19So even though they're more expensive, if fewer people are going, that means less spent
10:23on on-mountain dining, less spent on rentals, less spent on lessons and more.
10:26But this gets to this idea, and I mean, we look, I mean, we know that this is kind of
10:30a business, at least certainly in the modern age, that caters to a higher income consumer.
10:33But we've talked before about some of the issues we're seeing in Vegas with regards
10:37to a different type of leisure travel.
10:39And the idea that some of this is kind of a cell phone, you know, it was kind of like
10:42this hubris of continuing to raise prices and milk more things out of your customer.
10:46For a while, they were onto it, but it now seems you're starting to see some cracks
10:50in that model.
10:51You're certainly seeing it in the casino space, and maybe you're starting to see it skiing
10:55as well.
10:55Well, it's like falling off a cliff right now.
10:58You don't want to do that when you're skiing.
11:00Sorry, that was pretty sad.
11:01Yeah, stay on the trail.
11:02All right, but shares of Val Resorts, they're down about 2.7% here in the aftermarket.
11:06I almost fell off a cliff once, but thankfully they had that little, you know, that wooden
11:09fencing thing.
11:10Yeah.
11:11But I got tangled up in it.
11:11Are you on the bunny trail?
11:12What do they call that?
11:13No, Romaine's like...
11:14I'm on the triple diamond.
11:15Oh, are you?
11:16On Fridays in the winter, on Fridays in the winter, I'm like, Romaine, what are you doing this
11:19weekend?
11:20He's always going skiing.
11:21Wow, I'm impressed.
11:22He's going to keep up.
11:23Remember our old colleague, Eric Schatzker?
11:24I don't know what happened to him.
11:25Did we fire him or something?
11:26No.
11:27But, you know, he like, he like literally like goes on these trips where like he has to
11:30take a helicopter up to the top.
11:31Yeah, because he's Canadian.
11:32And I remember you showed me a video and I was like, dude, I'm never going skiing with
11:36you.
11:37Feel different.
11:37All right.
11:38Well, shares avail.
11:39They're down about three and a half percent.
11:40We're awaiting Jeffries, expected to report to you after the close.
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