Tesla Sales Jump Ahead of Expiring EV Incentive

Bloomberg

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00:00It was, but earlier in the week that we saw Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, saying the EV market in the

00:05U.S. is going to slump by half because of the policies currently being enacted here. And

00:10meanwhile, we see Tesla jump, but because of that EV tax credit expiry, potentially.

00:16What is the forward-looking analysis of yours for U.S. EV sales for Tesla?

00:21Yeah, definitely. We knew Q3 was going to be a record quarter, right, driven by policy, right?

00:26Everyone created a sense of urgency, whether it was dealers, OEMs, and so consumers reacted.

00:32So we're probably going to reach about $410,000, probably 10% market share in the U.S. market,

00:38and Tesla is definitely taking advantage of that. But once again, that was policy-driven. Moving into

00:43Q4, we're going to see a slowdown. However, I've already seen, and you've probably seen some of

00:48the manufacturers are going to continue a $7,500 credit going into Q4 on leasing. Hyundai mentioned

00:55they're going to reduce their IONIQ 5 by, you know, 9,800 is the 26 model and continue to offer

01:01the 7,500. So just very specifically, Stephanie, in this quarter that's just been reported,

01:08and in Tesla's case specifically, you see evidence that the consumer knew that the federal tax credit

01:13was running out and so took advantage of that to make a decision and either purchase or lease a

01:19vehicle. Oh, definitely. Yeah. Like, I think the consumers became very aware of this incentive.

01:25If you went to any online search website, you saw that, you know, the IRA tax credit was there. It

01:31was winding down. And I think definitely this sense of urgency created consumer reaction, and we're

01:37seeing that in the data. The numbers are still coming in for September in the U.S., but definitely

01:42going to be a record quarter and, you know, highest market share to date. God, there's so many things

01:47that I want to poke around at. Like, what sources inside Tesla told me in recent weeks was like,

01:53hey, have you been noticing the advertising we've been doing on YouTube and Instagram,

01:58something that Elon Musk historically is completely against? But I'm also like, almost 500,000 vehicles

02:04in the quarter. Do you see that as just being a one-time thing? Like, would this be replicated?

02:10Because it has to if he's going to deliver 20 million vehicles over a 10-year period. Like,

02:15that's the math, 500,000 a quarter. Yeah. I think it's going to be challenging,

02:20right? Because I think just, I think a lot of consumers that were considering buying a vehicle,

02:26EV specifically, pulled ahead, bought it in Q3 because of the incentives. And so I think just we're

02:31going to see that slowdown coming in Q4. And we'll start to see the market stabilize. What's that

02:36natural demand for EVs? And I think it's going to be dependent on, for Tesla, right? Once again,

02:42having some product, new product that's going to resonate with consumers. And then I think the

02:47other challenge for Tesla is navigating the changes in regulatory policy. You know, that revenue they've

02:52gotten from carbon credit will soon disappear. And so how do they navigate that? And once again,

02:58I think they do have some opportunities with energy storage. They have their AI, robo-taxi. So they

03:03have stuff in play. But it's navigating the short term when demand goes down and having not the

03:09product available, new product that resonates with customers. Stephanie, go global because we

03:13can with you. And what's so interesting is while the EV market is getting smaller here in the U.S.

03:18because of policy, China is going up into the right. Europe, it's expanding. But Tesla's foothold

03:24has not been. Can they turn that around? I think they can if they continue. I mean,

03:29the Model Y, I think the six three row or the six C Model Y is really doing well in China now. I think

03:34if they continue to, you know, once again, have new product. But I think the Chinese OEMs, you have

03:40BYD, Xiaomi that are really gaining market share. And I think Tesla has stiff competition. So I think

03:47it's going to come down to having product and being able to resonate that with the consumer there.

03:51So let's get started.

03:55So let's get started.

03:56So let's get started.

03:57Let's get started.

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