00:00You're a money manager. Do you know what to tell people about what the tariffs are going to do on the United States economy and the investment environment or is it not clear yet.
00:08There's a lot to really think through and understand the ultimate ramifications and exactly where do we end up with those tariffs.
00:15But if you look at the impact of the tariffs they were much more significant and broad than I think the market expected.
00:22It looks closer to 19 percent on balance versus two and change last year. So effectively it's a 20 percent increase on 10 percent of household goods that are imported into this country.
00:35And do you think it's going to lead to a recession. Well we think that it's going to impact both inflation and the economic growth scenario.
00:44So we were coming into yesterday expecting the the real economy to grow at 2 percent and inflation to be closer to 2.8 percent.
00:55If you just go through the map it would suggest there's probably one to two points up upward increase on inflation and a similar amount on economic growth.
01:05So it could put us in a position where we're cheating. So the tariffs will likely depress the GDP growth rate and increase inflation.
01:14So what's the advantage of tariffs. From our standpoint we have a hard time seeing the benefits of tariffs. They do tend to be inflationary
01:25in the short term. As you're pointing out you know the longer term impact on economies is probably the greater downside.
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