00:00Do you see this as genuine engagement with Trump's 20-point peace plan or just one way that both sides, and I'm talking about both Israel and Hamas here, are looking to pass time, to prolong discussions?
00:19It's a good question. I think it's a bit of both.
00:21I think President Trump has maneuvered the two sides into a situation where they are required, really, to engage with the 20-point plan that he's put out there, and he's delivered some results so far that, as Stan said, your previous speaker, do, I think, offer some grounds for cautious, highly cautious optimism.
00:49Hamas has agreed to release the hostages.
00:52I think they have not said much about the rest of the terms of the plan, and they seem, in some media accounts I've seen, to try to be buying a little time, even with the release of the hostages and the remains of those who have died in captivity,
01:10by talking about the need for security arrangements and the need for locating the remains of some of the hostages buried under rubble or in areas occupied by the Israelis.
01:23So I think the two sides are engaging, but as negotiations go, they're looking for areas where they can get some leverage against the other side.
01:36Yeah. Do you believe that Hamas' full disarmament is on the table?
01:41Well, it's definitely on the table under the terms of the agreement or the plan that President Trump has put out there.
01:52It's going to depend initially on the release of the hostages and then how Hamas is able to negotiate the rest of the agreement.
02:06But it's fairly clear they are not going to have a future role in the governance of Gaza.
02:14I think they've already conceded that in previous ceasefire negotiations.
02:19The disarmament, the actual physical disarmament of Hamas is likely to be a heavily negotiated issue on both sides.
02:36It's maybe the most difficult issue that they're going to have to wrestle with.
02:42It's fairly cut and dried in the agreement that President Trump has put out there for the two sides to agree on.
02:50But getting there is going to be difficult, I think.
02:54Yeah. When you look at the text of that 20-point plan that was released last week,
03:00how much of a footprint do you see from Arab Gulf states' involvement in getting that document together?
03:07There's been a lot of reporting about that meeting that President Trump had on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly
03:13with various GCC states and, of course, Qatar playing a key role there.
03:17How much influence do you think they had in actually finalizing that document that was released last week?
03:24I think Gulf states and Egypt as well had a critical role in shaping the agreement.
03:31Those discussions at the UN General Assembly had a big impact.
03:36I think subsequent to the meeting that President Trump held there,
03:41he has held individual consultations with various Gulf state leaders and Arab state leaders like President Sisi in Egypt as well.
03:51So, yes, they've been instrumental.
03:53I think President Trump sees these states as having significant influence.
04:00The Gulf states have significant resources that they can help bring to bear to pay for some of the costs
04:09that are going to be involved in redeveloping, rebuilding Gaza,
04:14paying for security forces that would need to be salaried there.
04:18Egypt, of course, has a lot of influence in the region, non-Arab state but regional power.
04:26Turkey also apparently has been involved in these discussions
04:30and is a player who would bring to bear a lot of influence.
04:34So, yes, these states have had significant influence, and I think they've shaped the agreement.
04:40And, of course, on the Israeli side, they've had significant influence in the text of the agreement as well,
04:45according to media accounts.
04:46And just final thought, what do you make of the U.S.,
04:51well, specifically President Trump's executive order that upgrades the state of U.S. security guarantees for Qatar?
04:58That was sort of something that went under the radar last week,
05:02but it is a concession that Qatar extracted from the United States.
05:07It's an important agreement.
05:08It's the type of strong security agreements that a number of other Gulf states have sought with the United States
05:18and have not received.
05:20President Trump managed to get such a strong security,
05:27a set of security commitments by doing it as an executive order.
05:31Now, this is something that could theoretically be overturned by a future president.
05:36It's not as strong as a treaty, which would be ratified by the Senate,
05:42but it still is a very significant security document.
05:46It has boosted Qatar's confidence, I think, in relations with the United States,
05:52and it has allowed for Qatar to begin again to play a key role as a mediator in these negotiations with Hamas.
06:00So it's been very important in the short term and I think also on the longer term security horizon in the Gulf.
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