00:00Joining us now to talk all about American foreign policy and Trump's visits to Asia is Robert
00:06Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in the US. Thanks for speaking
00:10to France 24. My pleasure. So what have you got your eye on specifically when it comes to
00:17this visit that Donald Trump is making to Asia this week?
00:21Well, obviously, the Cambodia tie effort is part of his quest for a Nobel Peace Prize,
00:30which he's been very ostentatious about. But I think the real centerpiece is a meeting with Xi
00:37Jinping, where they will, I think, try to at least shape the outlines of a deal with China,
00:47which I think will include, you know, something on US agricultural goods. 50% of American soy
00:58farmers market is in China, and they've lost it entirely because of Trump tariffs. So there's
01:05pressure there. I think from the Chinese perspective, they're looking for, they're tired of this crazy
01:13uncertainty, and they're looking for stability and predictability. So I think you'll get some deal
01:20on technology, whether it's a commitment from them on rare earths and possibly a loosening of US
01:27controls of chip exports, maybe some scaled down NVIDIA chips, AI chips. And the Chinese want some
01:37kind of reassurance on Taiwan. So those are some of the elements. If they don't finalize them there,
01:46you know, there's going to be an exchange of summits next year with Xi coming to Washington and Trump
01:52going to Beijing. So I think Trump's hope is to kind of stabilize the relationship and assure,
02:04you know, China's rare earths could really shut down American tech industry entirely and auto industry.
02:12So there's a big concern about their elaborate new export controls, and they want the US want some
02:19commitment that the flow will not be impinged. Now, Robert, you sound fairly confident that there
02:27will be some sort of deal down the road. But we know how unpredictable the Trump administration
02:33can be. What would what would you say could be perhaps the worst case scenario?
02:40Well, I think, you know, what we saw, for example, a Trump recent earlier this year,
02:48essentially undid 25 years of diplomacy with India, because of a phone call with Moat with Prime Minister
02:57Modi in that he got angry at. And so he's capable of very impulsive behavior. If something happens
03:06with Xi that sets him off, the whole thing could blow up. And of course, Trump is the only dove in
03:13the US government. Most of the rest of the government is focused on containing China, preparing for war with
03:20China. And Trump is the is the sole dealmaker. So I think it could shift easily if things go sour.
03:29Yeah, I'm not sure how the Venezuelans feel right now about Trump being described as a dove. However,
03:35I saw you tweeted earlier today that Xi Jinping must be laughing at the situation of this deployment to
03:41the Caribbean. Well, you know, it's very disturbing because they've traditionally they've blurred the
03:51line between crime and war. And that that's really the core problem. Right. Traditionally, drug fed.
03:59These are small speedboats that couldn't possibly even make it to the United States. Several of them
04:05are headed for Trinidad, not the United States. And the work that the problem is they they they make
04:12they've charged that these are drug peddlers and that may be true, but they've failed to produce any
04:17evidence. They they won't tell Congress what the evidence is. So it's in essence, the US is kind of
04:27acting like a rogue nation, almost like a pirate in the Caribbean. And I think that the larger agenda,
04:36they're very up. They're very focused on the Western Hemisphere. And it's a kind of Neil Monroe
04:41doctrine. And I don't think they'd like to have see regime change in Venezuela. I think that's quite
04:49clear. And that's what the larger agenda is. You don't need an aircraft carrier and a carrier task
04:56force to deal with drug peddlers in in smuggling in the Caribbean. So there's a there's a larger agenda
05:04here. And the lack of accountability is is is most troubling. And I think this regime change in Latin
05:14America may not end at Venezuela if it does happen. Yeah, there is a question, though, over to what extent
05:22this is Trumpism playing out? And to what extent is simply maybe a more forceful or more brazen
05:28continuation of the kinds of actions that America has taken in the past in Latin America?
05:38Well, it certainly isn't that grand tradition of American imperialism in Latin America over over
05:45a hundred several hundred years or so. And I think a lot of Trump's base is very upset about this
05:54because it's they're they're focused on what happened to America first. You know, it's not just
06:00Venezuela, the 40 billion dollar bailout for for President Malay and in Argentina. You know, at the
06:09same time, the government is shut down and people are losing food stamps and federal workers are not
06:15being played paid. I think that there's there's a lot of discontent within Trump's MAGA base over
06:24this. Yeah, finally, I just wanted to bring you back to a situation that's affecting us a lot here
06:30in Europe. And the move we saw from Donald Trump this week to put sanctions on Russian oil. Obviously,
06:37he's in Asia this week. Is he hoping to stop India and China from buying Russian oil? And can he achieve
06:45this? I don't I I'm dubious about China, but I think, you know, there's been a quiet effort at a trade
06:56deal that is almost complete with India. And the Indians, for example, Indian refineries have announced
07:03they're not going to refine any more Russian oil. So it may be that that they're starting a you know,
07:10you can't turn that off overnight. But I think the Indians may be starting a phased process to reduce
07:17Russian oil imports. And the reason Trump could do this is there's a global oil glut. And so part of
07:26the agenda here is not just sanctions on Russia, but I see the they see the Saudi Arabia recapturing some
07:33market share as a result of these sanctions. All right, Robert Manning, we'll leave it there.
07:39Robert Manning from the Stimson Center in the US. Thank you very much for your time speaking to France 24.
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