- 4 months ago
For investors, Bandyopadhyay recommends focusing on domestic growth stories. “Cement, infrastructure, construction, and capital goods will lead the charge,” he noted, highlighting Ultratech Cement, L&T, and Bharti Airtel as top picks.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00We are just joining in to our special Mahura trading show. I'm Abha Bakaya and with me,
00:21Sakshi Batra. On this auspicious day of Diwali Mahura trading, we'll have with us some of the
00:25biggest names from stock markets and mutual funds, which decide where money is invested.
00:31Absolutely. This is the Mahura trading session that begins in just one minute. Viewers,
00:36this will last for one hour now and we will get to see as both traders and investors really give a
00:43lot of importance to this session and they seek blessings from Goddess Lakshmi for prosperity
00:50as well as profitable trades ahead. On your screens, 25,901. That's what is being indicated
00:57as the opening levels as we could see for the markets. Remember, Nifty Bank has been an outperformer
01:03for the last few sessions. It's already seen a record high level. It's climbed above 58,000 odd
01:09mark. We might see an uptick continuing from that level as well. The IT stocks that have been in
01:15focus all through last week because of the earnings focus are likely to continue their momentum. And
01:20there you see on your screens, the markets have started to move. Let's look at the Nifty first,
01:250.3% high in trade at 25,925. What a beginning to Mahura trading, Abha. And we could close in on
01:33that 26,000 mark for the first time in this year after a long time of consolidation.
01:38That would be exciting, wouldn't it? Seven years in the green for Mahura trading. Will this be the
01:44eighth year? Sudeep, on opening ticks, it clearly looks like the market is in a very, very festive
01:49mood. Absolutely. In fact, Sudeep, I'd like to come to you now and try and understand. So we're
01:55starting off on a high note at a 52-week high level for the first time, closing in on that 26,000
02:02mile. This brings us closer to nearly about 300 points from the erstwhile record high that we've seen
02:07on the Nifty. Do you see higher highs in the new somewhat for the markets? What's your target
02:13price for the Nifty this year? Well, we can talk about target price surely, but definitely I do see
02:19higher highs during the new somewhat. Look, I think that the domestic factors, as all of you have been
02:24outlining, are pretty good. You know, the government has been doing what is necessary to be done,
02:31necessarily required. The central bank is helping. The rains have been plentiful.
02:37The inflation has really come under control, much below the RBI's target inflation rate. So things
02:45are looking good as far as domestic scenario is concerned. As far as, you know, the global macro
02:49and global scenario is concerned, I think we still have that niggling problem of 50% tariff
02:54levied by US on Indian exports, part of the Indian exports. But I think even there, there are rays of hope
03:00that some kind of solution, some kind of resolution, maybe in the offing. And that is enthusing
03:06investors as well. Look, we know domestic investors have been investing in Indian markets
03:11heavily, and they have been carrying the market forward during the last somewhat. But I think
03:15the hope that the FIIs will, instead of selling, will start buying in a big way, can take the market
03:21to a completely different level in the new somewhat. And I think that's what we are definitely
03:27waiting for. A lot of new IPOs are coming, which are, which are, which are good quality companies
03:33coming to the market. And I think this increases the depth of the market, which is required for
03:38Indian markets to ensure that the valuations remain realistic. Instead of, you know, too much money
03:43chasing too few stocks, more and more good quality companies getting listed in Indian market is good
03:49for Indian markets health. I think that's also happening. So I think things are falling in place. We will
03:54definitely see newer highs in the new sambat. And we will look forward to prosperity for all the
04:00participants. Neeta, you know, we're talking about value and talking about, you know, markets only
04:08moving higher from here. How are you looking at the ideal portfolio mix for the new year? Any key
04:14changes you're making? Or what do you feel is a prudent mix at this point of time? I mean, as I said,
04:19one should be focused more on the domestic story rather than the export oriented story. Although,
04:25you know, they, they could always be a positive surprise with President Donald Trump. And suddenly
04:29you hear that there's a trade deal that's been agreed upon. And that'd be really positive for the
04:35exporters who are very depressed. So I think one could take some risk on that trade and keep
04:40one of those trades as well, but a very small portion because that could ultimately become a big
04:48trade if it works out. And then you, the rest of the portfolio, of course, you have to be
04:53stock specific, domestic consumption story, asset sectors that look attractive include
04:59financials, commodities, you know, healthcare. So there are a lot of sectors that have got growth,
05:10but you have to be stock specific. Realty, for instance, as well, because interest rates have come down.
05:16Sure. Sudeep, do you want to add on to any sectors that Puneet has just mentioned that you believe
05:23might outperform in the new Sambath and maybe also give us some stock ideas that you're asking your
05:28clients to invest in for the new year? Well, as far as concept is concerned, I completely agree.
05:34If you are a risk averse investor, stick to domestic focus centers and then you are being safe.
05:40You know, we have been recommending buying into cement infrastructure construction related
05:47companies. And I think that's one sector which definitely will do well with the kind of government
05:52CAPEX, which has been announced with the expectation of private CAPEX. I think cement definitely has been
05:59our favorite for quite some time. Ultratex cement being the leader in this pack has been our favorite.
06:05And I think we still recommend investors buy into that. As far as infrastructure, construction,
06:11capital goods, again, these are domestic focus predominantly. And the leader of the pack,
06:16Larsen & Tubro, has been our favorite. They have significant orders coming in from West Asia as well,
06:23which is improving their margin profile. And again, this can be looked at.
06:26We also like some of the consumption related themes, which are based on India's story,
06:35particularly on the telecom side. We do like Bharti Airtel. Again, look, you know, they are doing all
06:41the right things, ticking the right boxes. International operations are doing good. And there is another
06:47rate hike in the offing, which will improve margins significantly, increase R2 significantly.
06:52And the, you know, the Vodafone idea matter, which is in the Supreme Court regarding AGR dues.
06:58If there is a favorable decision there, I think that will also benefit Bharti Airtel directly.
07:05So Bharti Airtel at current level does look good from all points of view. And again, investors can look at that.
07:12Okay. So that's one stock pick coming in from Sudeep and haven't heard telecom in a while. So that's,
07:20that's one for the reasons that he mentioned to keep on your radar as, as one that a dark horse
07:25might shoot out. Panita, let's talk about gold and silver. You mentioned commodities and we've got
07:30to talk about all the glitter and all the action that's been happening there. Everyone is just stumped
07:35by the kind of all time highs we've been seeing on precious metals. And we've obviously been seeing
07:39whether it's gold financiers or whether it's metal names, commodity names running up on the back
07:45of all time highs in copper, platinum, silver, everything is moving. What are you making of
07:49this trend? As I say, in a different way, all that glitters is not gold. It's also silver, copper,
07:57everything else now as well. And so I think it's a broad based commodity rally. And we are also seeing
08:05bitcoins rally. We are also seeing bitcoin miners rally globally. And it's all because there is a risk
08:12to what is the future state of the US dollar. So there is a lot of concern about is dollar going to
08:19remain the reserve currency and what will replace it. So that's part of the reason why I think some of
08:25these commodities are rallying. And also then the underlying demand for commodities like silver and the
08:31EV and industrial segments is also driving that growth. So I think commodities is one, an alternative
08:41to the dollar as a reserve currency trade. I mean, that's the trade that's kind of been playing out.
08:48And then it's also the general
08:51risk aversion that Indians have had a little bit to the equity markets in the last 12 months. So people
09:00have been looking for other places to invest. And so gold and silver, but I really don't know what
09:07to make of how much more steam there is in this rally. I'm not a commodity technical analyst, but
09:13that's really something that is not necessarily only fundamental, but technically driven. And so technical
09:20models would be better at predicting where these gold and silver go. From what I'm hearing that while
09:28there could be consolidation in the short term, there could be another leg up at some point next year.
09:33All right, Padita. We'll thank you then for being with us on this very special. And we wish you from
09:40the entire team of Business Today and India Today, that you, your entire team and your loved ones have a
09:45very happy and prosperous new year ahead. We'll of course catch you up soon.
09:49Thank you so much. And happy Diwali to all the viewers.
09:54Thank you so much.
09:56Right, Sudeep, what's your call? I mean, gold, silver versus equities, what will outperform or what
10:01do you think gold and silver can continue to outperform the equities in the new summer too?
10:05Well, I don't think so. I think, you know, last year, what we did see as far as gold and silver
10:10is concerned is a, I think, once in a lifetime kind of a scenario where gold and silver really,
10:15really outperformed every other asset class. You know, considering the level at which gold and
10:21silver is currently trading, I don't think the new summer which started today will see outperformance
10:27by gold and silver. So if you want to take a bet, I would say you should take a bet on equities.
10:33As far as, you know, Indian equities are concerned, definitely the current Sambath will be the one
10:38of Indian equities as opposed to gold and silver. I'm not saying you move out of gold and silver,
10:44but the kind of return, outsized returns which you saw last year will not be visible this year.
10:49That is pretty much, you know, I can say with some kind of confidence. It is time for gold and silver
10:56both to consolidate. I don't think it is going to crash or come down significantly,
11:01but some amount of consolidation is par for the course and that's pretty much what will happen
11:06in the current Sambath. Focus on equities, focus on pockets, focus on, you know, identify stocks
11:12and buy into them. You will do well if you are into equities predominantly.
11:17All right. That's the latest coming in on the commodities front, but lots more to talk about.
11:27All the IPO action. Let's take a look, Sudeep, at what's been happening there. Now, in this past year,
11:32we've had something like a black buck seeing 153% return. Something like an Arthur Energy see about
11:38125% return coming in. And that's just the beginning of it. The list goes on. But the biggest IPOs are
11:45actually towards the end of this year, whether it was Tata Cap, whether it's the upcoming ones.
11:50LG. Exactly. LG creating history. So it seems like the market's appetite for the primary market
11:57is not going anywhere at all. Is there enough value as you see it? Or is this again,
12:04a more risky investment option for investors? Because at least from the historic trends or what
12:11we're seeing so far this year, the returns are 100% plus?
12:15Well, Abha, it's always a mixed bag. There are issues which are giving fantastic returns. And there
12:21are issues which are trading significantly below their issue prices. And I'm sure you can make a
12:28list of that as well as it's been now shown in the screen. So my advice to investors always have been and
12:34will be that be careful as to what you're applying for, what you're getting into. There are a lot of good
12:40companies which came with IPOs last year. And there are a lot of good companies which are
12:44planning to come with IPO in the forthcoming few months. Now, the question is whether the company
12:51is good, the business is good. And more importantly, at what valuation, what price the IPO is coming?
12:58Look at the case. I don't want to undermine, but look at the case of Tata Capital IPO as well as LG
13:05Electronics IPO. Now, both are good companies coming from top corporates, globally well known,
13:12very respected and reputed. Now, Tata Capital IPO didn't get the kind of response one would have
13:18assumed from that kind of a pedigree entity. Because the valuation was not cheap, and it didn't attract
13:27the kind of a subscription from the retail format, retail as one would have expected. And it didn't
13:33get naturally get quoted at a significant premium. And it's been around that price at which it came.
13:40Whereas look at LG, there was a significant discount to the listed peers, whether you look at Voltas,
13:46Bluestar, you know, Hamels and everybody else. And LG, of course, is the giant, is a leader,
13:52is a global company, presents across segments, fantastic profitability, fantastic business,
13:58and at a significant discount to the valuation at which the peers were quoting. So obviously,
14:04there was a massive subscription, oversubscription, and the listing happened at 50% above the issue
14:11price. I mean, and look at the excitement it created. So I think you look at the company and
14:18also look at the valuation when you are getting into an IPO. And that's the way to go about it.
14:23You know, if the company is not good, the business is not good, don't touch. If the valuation is not
14:28right, be careful. Okay, well, on that note, thank you so much, Sudeep, for being with us. And of course,
14:35Diwali wishes yet again to you, to your loved ones as well, from our entire team. Of course, we will see you
14:41more often in the new Sambhat. Happy New Year to all of you too. Thank you.
14:46Thank you so much. Viewers, we are now going to be joined by two other market masters as well.
14:51Devian Choksi, MD of DR, Choksi Fincer, Private Limited is now joining in. And we also have with us
14:56Amisha Vora, Chairperson, and MD of PL Capital, Prabhudas Leeladar. Welcome to both of you. And thank
15:03you so much for taking the time out. Warmest wishes for the Muhrid trading as well as the upcoming
15:08Sambhat as well. Let me start off by asking you, Amisha, what are you penciling in on as far as the
15:16new Sambhat is concerned? Do you believe we will be able to cover up a lot of lost ground of the
15:22current Sambhat that's just gone by? And of course, what's your expectation on equity returns?
15:30Happy Diwali and very happy Murat trading to you both and all the viewers. Yes,
15:38I am firmly in the camp that believes that Diwali to Diwali and beyond Indian markets will get back
15:48their luster. You know, last year, we have as markets also given very nominal positive upside,
16:00Diwali to Diwali. At the same time, when you compare with some of the global markets,
16:06we have been one of the underperforming markets. When you compare to all the precious metals,
16:12which is a very easy trade comparatively, we have substantially underperformed. But I think
16:19that underperformance coupled with the fact and also because of the fact that a lot of FI selling has
16:27happened creates a very good ground. And when you combine that with interest rate cut,
16:38income tax cut, and GST cut, we have created a very solid ground for both earnings recovery and a market
16:50recovery.
16:53Okay, great. We are starting to see signs of the earnings recovery so far as well.
16:58Devin, a very warm welcome. You know, we've been discussing market trends in this Sambhat for
17:03as long as I can remember. If you look at the trend this year, you know, do you feel we're at some kind
17:09of an inflection point? How are the, you know, different factors at play this time around different
17:15perhaps to what you've seen historically?
17:19Hi. Happy Diwari to all of you. Well, I think never in my lifetime I have seen this kind of a situation
17:26wherein you have got significantly large amount of money available in the hands of consumer as well as
17:31investor. Investor is pouring in money through the SIPs in the mutual fund as well as direct equity.
17:38Look at I think the kind of IPO subscription that we have been fetching. The retail investors have
17:43generally been average of having 35 times more I think in every IPO. I think that's the kind of power
17:50of money which I have never experienced I think in my lifetime so far. Consumer definitely is spending
17:57huge and I think nobody would expect it in 2025. Against all tariff tantrums, India would probably bring
18:05down the income tax rate and they will also bring down the GST rate. They will bring down the inflation
18:10in successive manner, a successful manner and at the same time interest rates have also come down.
18:16I believe that I think this kind of combination is rare. I think one has not seen this kind of
18:20combination and the power of this combination going forward should be in the direction of I think higher
18:26amount of growth in the earnings for the conference. I would not be very surprised I think if we continue
18:33to grow larger than average growth in next two to three years at least in the near future or even on a higher
18:39basis. So certainly I think we are heading for a good time. Maybe I think the market has probably
18:45started realizing and that is where I think the laggards have started moving up as well.
18:50I think one should see a different Diwali next year compared to what one has seen the muted one
18:54which in the current year from last year to current year. So let's hope for the best. I think this full
18:59year is beginning now. Absolutely. Let's hope for the best. Let's also welcome Sunil Shah,
19:04our manager at SRE PMS also joining in on the program with us. Diwali wishes to you Sunil.
19:10Your sense of the top two or three themes that you believe will outperform in the new Samwath year.
19:16Yeah, thank you so much for the invite. Happy Diwali to all of you and look forward to a great year.
19:23So clearly I think consumption and as was spoken earlier by other speakers as well, consumption is
19:29the theme to watch out for. The kind of money power which is there in the hands of people given all
19:34those interest cuts and tax cuts. We will see certainly a great time going forward plus the kind of
19:41monsoon which is coming. So it's going to be a combination of both urban spend as well as the
19:47rural opportunity. And consumption is the space which has underperformed the market also for quite
19:53some time. It has been the government pact which has done well. So I think in this somewhat we will
19:59see consumption really taking the lead. And there are good quality companies also which are there.
20:05So let's say NG electronics for example is one such big opportunity which is going to be a play for
20:12both Indian consumer as well as global manufacturing base. So I think companies like this need to be
20:18really watched out for by the investors. So that is one side. Auto remains one of the various you know
20:26famous and very favorite pick would I would say that. So companies there would be companies like
20:31an SJS electronics as well as you know you can have something like a gabriel. So the pack of auto is
20:38one which I think will do very well. Money in the hands of people is going to get reflected in the auto
20:43numbers in this month and going forward. So those are the selective opportunities which I think would
20:49do well in the coming year. Yeah. Okay. So you know talking about consumption and we have with us
20:54Amisha, Devin, Sunil, everyone's going to talk about consumption. We're just listening to Puneeta also just a few
21:00moments ago. Let me just break this up in terms of where you're all seeing value. So Amisha let me
21:05come to you whether it's you know realty, whether it's auto, gold financiers, whether it's you know
21:12electronics that are running up post the LG IPO as Sunil also just mentioned. The gamut is quite large when
21:18it comes to some of these consumption driven plays. Where are you seeing value in the market?
21:22So this entire consumption led growth will also reflect in higher credit growth, be it in banks,
21:34be it in select NBFCs which are in the relevant pockets. So one way to play that because you said
21:44where is the value. So we feel that you know the banks both select PSU private and select NBFCs
21:56have seen in last one one and a half year because of little tepid growth valuations also coming off
22:03and now if you see to your forward the valuations compared to their growth and ROE are at a very
22:10interesting point. So we think from both growth and valuation perspective as a combination this segment
22:22can give very good portfolio returns and can generate alpha. Once you want to go down further
22:31into consumption itself from there are different facets of consumer as you very rightly said from
22:37auto which also we think will do very well and particularly we are more bullish on four wheelers.
22:45I mean passenger vehicles than the commercial to start with and when it comes to FMCG the fast
22:54moving consumer goods which is typically not so lowly valued but if you see in a category as basic as biscuit
23:04the GST cut is from 18 to 5 percent and the raw material trend be it for wheat milk palm oil etc is also
23:14soft. So we think that if this kind of a giant can in our understanding give 20 percent plus bottom line growth
23:22then even something like that can do very well. So we'll have to pick and choose where a combination
23:29of growth inflection with valuation is sitting in. Fair point. Devanji coming back to you you know help us
23:37and our viewers understand those who are sitting with a lot of fund wanting to maybe create a new portfolio for
23:45them or themselves or maybe to rejig their portfolios they have two kinds of funds one as sips and the
23:52other as lump sum where should this money go especially because a lot of these investors are facing two
23:58things one a FOMO of having missed out on several opportunities especially in the commodities and
24:04precious metals to a recency bias again where they have actually seen the outperformance to come in so
24:09they'll be facing both of this how should they be tackling this in the new somewhat where should the money go
24:14saw? So Sakshi basically I think the point if I have to break it up into two parts I think the one
24:23class of investors are basically wanting to go for the which is written I think in a shorter duration
24:30so they'll basically want to play the momentum and then the people like us I think who basically want
24:36to buy the deep wellings because we believe that I think over next five to ten years what is going to
24:41create the wealth is something which we would like to buy and stay tight with that investment now if
24:48you are an investor who is basically looking at deep value then you are likely to see in next 10 years
24:54the likes of Microsoft likes of Google likes of Apple in India creating the wealth for investors in
25:02next 10 years and that's where probably I think your systematic money is to get invested into these stocks
25:07even when they don't perform or underperform I think your systematic allocation into this stock
25:13is the key to create that kind of a value growth in your portfolio however those who want to trade for
25:19them the momentum is returning back fortunately now I think in 2025 the momentum probably broke
25:25and I think affected a lot of momentum traders also it is coming back I believe I think in 2026 so should
25:33that be the situation then a part of the traders would always play the momentum we believe that
25:38I think this is a huge opportunity for somebody who has basically missed out this market to create
25:44wealth in next 10 years just one example that I think to put that point across in 2016 a geo platform value
25:53in the books of freelance was probably close to nothing at that time they started their operation
25:59today geo platform in less than 10 years I think from they started has created a value of somewhere
26:07around 9 to 10 lakh crores in the books of reliance so those who remain invested with reliance this value
26:12has come to them now we are not going to count what return you generated in last 10 years in this particular
26:18stock you are going to basically gift away this particular stock to somebody who say look this is
26:22a value that I'm gifting to you so that's where probably I think the difference is I believe that I think
26:27huge opportunity next 10 years for making such kind of wealth in the portfolio
26:34all right uh Devan thanks so much for joining us and uh let's actually take a look just pause and take
26:38a look at what the actions looking like this Mahurat session Sakshi on the charts is it still pretty much
26:43all green absolutely all the sectors are up and about you know the small caps are in fact among the
26:48major indices outperforming at this point in time you can actually see a 0.7 percent of an uptick on that one
26:54um same way the nifty is still hovering around 25 900 odd mark all the sectors are up into the green
27:01pharma metals it auto all of them are shining bright i think barring real estate which is just seeing
27:06slight dip at this point in time the top movers on the nifty include names like sipla from the pharma pack
27:12emphasis from the it pack you also have tata motors Mahindra and Mahindra remember our guests were
27:17talking about four-wheelers passenger vehicles amisha just mentioned and those kind of names are actually
27:22um you know doing well at this point access bank also among the movers but on the downside you have
27:28bharti et al icica bank asian paints indigo kotak mahindra bank as among those that are seeing some
27:34dips at least at this point in time but there are several other sectors also that are moving
27:38pretty sharply and you can see railways and defense also in the move remember this has been one theme that
27:45a lot of our retail investors have been focused on in the year 2024 this year largely it panned out as a
27:51consolidated year for defense and railways so let's pick up on that and i'll come to you uh sunil on
27:57that front do you think railways and defense coming back into flavor in the new somewhat
28:03yes very much i think the way in which geopolitical situations are working currently in terms of a global
28:11conflict there does not seem to be signs of those abhiting in the near term so this is something which
28:17is going to continue from the previous summer to the next summer in terms of the crisis in the in
28:22the global markets and given all that each country is now trying to be independent on their own so
28:29whether it is european union or it is countries like india everybody is increasing their defense
28:35expenditure defense allocation so now we'll be seeing good opportunity in the defense space but
28:40this the pocket would be more in terms of the private sector companies so earlier in the last
28:46four five years we have seen money spent in the defense sector happens for the psus now those psus are
28:54already sitting on huge order book and given that everything needs to be indigenized even lot of
29:00contracts are now flowing from this defense psus to the private sector so you have small cap companies
29:07in the private sector defense pocket which would be the emerging winners in this entire pack of the
29:12of the defense side so because in defense psus we have seen a run-up of 8 to 10x i think the next such
29:19run-up could be possible in the private sector defense companies uh that is one such thing uh railways
29:25has already played out and there is this coverage opportunity which is opening up now the coverage
29:31opportunity of four is going to be percolating down to companies so there are three four companies
29:36which are there all of those would be seeing huge order flowing into them in this coming year the
29:42other emerging which i think apart from defense and railways is going to be the shipbuilding
29:48opportunity our government has now clearly chalked out on year marks 70 000 peroles for shipbuilding
29:54in this country and so in this summer we'll see that pocket will work out exactly like what defense
30:02was maybe four years ago so i think these are the uh things which will work out in this year uh
30:07private sector defense companies and the shipbuilding companies would be the silent emerging winners in
30:13this summer all right let's talk about earnings zaneel and uh given what we've seen so far are you
30:21confident of the earnings pickup that everyone's been wanting to see uh it for instance of course the
30:27first lot has come through setting the tone but we've seen a lot of other earnings in the broader
30:32markets that have positively surprised we're also of course going to wait for the gst cut impact to
30:37reflect in earnings further in the next quarter what's your outlook on that front and anything
30:42particular you're eyeing from that lens yeah so when we talk about earnings we need to understand the
30:50life cycle of the businesses so if we pick up nifty right now which constitutes about 50 stocks
30:56out of those maybe about 35 of them are in the mature life cycle what i mean by mature life cycle is
31:03that their earnings or their sales have grown by less than 10 percent so over the last five years
31:11so those pockets would include the it pack the fmcg pack uh you can name it even few of the oil and gas
31:17companies few of the banking companies then growth has been less than 10 percent which is lesser than the
31:24nominal gdp growth rate now if in the nifty you have 35 out of 50 companies which are growing at
31:31lesser than the nominal gdp growth rate and the money which is lying the free flow which is lying in
31:37those set of companies is humongous now if you compare that with the other opportunities of the auto
31:43ancillaries or of the electronic manufacturing or if you move to the defense or the shipbuilding
31:49those companies are going to grow at upwards of 20 to 25 percent over the next three to four years
31:54so we'll see a shift of money flowing uh from those mature set of companies who are having uh
32:01almost about 13 lakh crores of market cap just for the icing side sickness so we'll see that money
32:08shift to this pocket and this earnings trajectory just not about the second quarter what i'm talking
32:13about is a structural way in which it will be transition even for fy 26 or 27 so that is where
32:20i think the money flow will happen and we will see you just briefly mentioned the
Comments