Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) Exclusive | Is US Behind Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions?

Watch an exclusive interview with Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) as he analyzes the rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Is the United States secretly influencing the situation? Get in-depth military insights and geopolitical perspectives on this critical issue affecting South Asia’s stability.

#InFocus #Exclusive #PakistanAfghanistanTensions #MajGenRajanKochhar #Geopolitics #USInfluence #SouthAsiaConflict #MilitaryAnalysis #ExclusiveInterview #World

Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) Exclusive | Is US Behind Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions?

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Transcript

00:00so in our special series in focus i'm honored to have with us major general rajan kocha he's a very

00:20highly respected strategic and defense analyst with a 37 years of experience in the indian army

00:27uh welcome and thank you so much for joining us here at asianate news thank you very much it's a

00:34pleasure and a privilege for me to be on your program uh sir we are seeing the conflict escalating

00:41in between pakistan and afghanistan and this is not something that we've seen for the first time

00:46in the border areas but when you talk about kabul this is the first time that pakistan

00:51uh is emboldened somehow to attack at the heart of afghanistan now my question to you is when in 2022

00:58u.s carried out the drone strike uh and killed zawahiri there was no civilian casualties here

01:06pakistan claims that it is targeting ttp militants it is targeting the leader which is noor wali

01:11masood not only pakistan has failed to kill this ttp leader it has led to a lot of civilian casualties

01:18uh you know we have to understand uh the entire situation in its entirety because unless our

01:28reviewers understand the entire situation that why pakistan is doing this and what has prompted

01:35pakistan to do it and will pakistan be able to subjugate the uh might and the will and the pride

01:45of the pashtuns uh which largely you is the predominant uh community in uh afghanistan

01:56so if you look at uh you know i'll start this program with the better understanding for the viewers

02:02also that what is afghanistan what is the demography of this area and what are its aspirations because once we

02:14are very very clear then the present situation can be understood much better uh now afghanistan is

02:24totally 41.7 million people and out of these uh uh there is a predominant 42 percent population is

02:37pashtuns 27 is tajiks 10 percent is hazaras a nine percent is uzbek and then you know other things in

02:46there so uh predominantly i would say that uh you have a 17.5 million people because right now the problem

02:57is with pashtuns because of the common ethnicity with the pashtuns of pakistan so you have 17

03:07point five million people here and you have 40 million people there because pakistan's approximately

03:1518 percent of the population is pashtuns so though pakistan's percentage of pashtuns is smaller but

03:22then pakistan is a bigger country so the numbers of pashtuns in pakistan are much more than the numbers

03:29of pashtuns in afghanistan so if we actually combine those two uh you you can say around 18 million and

03:3840 million you have 58 million people which is a very very sizable number the problem is not due

03:47this problem with pakistan and afghanistan has been a very very old right from 1947 onwards of course

03:56you know it's a legacy of the british these lines or these boundaries when they are drawn

04:04they don't see the ethnicity because the way the britishers drew the line it was for their own

04:11convenience taking into account the security of their own uh you people so if you see what happened

04:20in mcmung line with the china and india what happened in jammu and kishmir also these are the same

04:29methodologies and procedures what the british employed and even in bangladesh i would say that the team biga

04:35corridor is a very standing example so if you look at these things in a holistic manner you will see that the

04:45creator of all these problems of today were the britishers uh had they considered ethnicity

04:54they would have included the khyber paktonwa as a part of afghanistan and there wouldn't have been any

05:00problem but they didn't do that so once you have demarcated a boundary and you call it pakistan and

05:07you call it afghanistan for the people of pakistan also to accept that uh to give back this piece of

05:16land uh would be unacceptable and for the people of afghanistan to accept the durian line would be

05:24unacceptable so that is the starting point of the dispute now if we look at the strength of

05:32up up up you now we will come on to the present context i don't want to go into the history what

05:39happened from the 1947 to 1960s 79 to 89 when when the soviets came in 2001 when the americans came in

05:50and left in 2021 the taliban was the creation of pakistan to fight the russians and durian line

06:01fencing was primarily the concept of pakistan to create a buffer a kind of uh an area from afghanistan to

06:12prevent the people from afghanistan coming in a uh free for all manner they wanted some kind of

06:21regulation that's why there are 18 check posts on these lines a 1200 of you you observation towers

06:30and a number of uh uh company defended localities as we call it in the army or we call it the pockets

06:43where the pakistani soldiers are actually guarding this line so if you look at this sort of aspect of

06:50today the durian line this is the starting point the second starting point is that afghanistan now i'll

06:58take the afghanistan view first and then i'll come on to the pakistan view now the afghanistan view is that

07:08pashtuns on the other side are part of us we are brothers and sisters and we have to unite and nobody

07:17can stop us from coming across and meeting them and now you have created a barrier you have created

07:25a line of fencing a check post now and you have to take a visa now these you the system of visas also

07:34started off and uh and nobody can enter uh uh you off the cuff it is with pakistan's permission and

07:44pakistan has the impunity uh of stopping these check posts you have these two major uh uh you you know

07:56check posts there so they would stop those and stop the entry of these people and one more thing you

08:04have to understand that afghanistan is a landlocked country so whatever afghanistan uh has to get in

08:11terms of vegetable sugar everything wheat everything it comes from pakistan's side and

08:17afghanistan also trades with pakistan so these are the trade barriers uh uh trading system is there

08:27there is an agreement also on trade which the afghanistan and the pakistan have actually

08:33has got into this sort of a formal agreement is there it has been laid down but this agreement has not

08:39been implemented in practice a limited uh implementation of this agreement so a problem now is that uh

08:502021 on 15th august we have the taliban 2.0 now pakistan's mindset was that taliban 2.0 will be like

09:04taliban 1.0 because they were able to subjugate that taliban they were able to influence that taliban and

09:14especially with the with the help of the united states now in 2021 unfortunately united states and

09:21pakistan didn't have good relations and uh and when united states was leaving uh afghanistan it thought it

09:31doesn't need pakistan anymore because you you will see now also the way trump and munir and all these

09:38things we are seeing in the media this is going to last as long as u.s requires pakistan because the

09:46u.s has dumped pakistan on a number of occasions and in 2021 u.s dumped pakistan and now this afghani

09:56leadership was also a new one uh talibans they were much more educated than the previous one and they

10:04realized the mistakes in the previous regime which they didn't want to do the same and the first hand

10:11they took was that we are an independent country we will have our own system of governance and we will

10:19not be dictated by what pakistan is going to tell us so that was the start of deterioration between the

10:25relationship and it continued and continued became bad further and uh then what happened was that

10:36a stage came when the pashtoons in pakistan were being discriminated upon especially in khayban

10:47pakistan as i told you almost 18 percent 40 million pashtoons are there the pashtoon punjabi divide became

10:57very strong in pakistan and which started a movement because there is a taliban pakistan was there

11:06during the pre-2021 days also and it is the creation of pakistan only and

11:12uh taliban of afghanistan and tariqe taliban of pakistan are like brothers you have to understand

11:19if the pakistan thinks afghanistan will dump uh tariqe taliban pakistan it is making a very big mistake

11:27so what happened was now this situation is that tariqe taliban pakistan started exerting itself in khaybar

11:37pakistan pakistan for the rights of the people of the pashtoons because what is happening is the

11:43panjabis are coming in khyber pakistan and khyber pakistan was rich in minerals not as copper deposits

11:52are there aluminium deposits are there other minerals are there so they started taking the contracts and

12:00the projects themselves depriving the people of khyber pakistan their rightful share and one more

12:09discrimination was that pakistan never allowed the state governments there to be stable and if you

12:17look at the history of khyber pakistan no government there lasts for more than a year and a half and

12:22they would be uh dismantled by the state of pakistan and you just have a comparison in punjab

12:29and sindh where the governments are pretty stable the state governments are not disturbed but pakistan

12:35would deliberately disturb the state governments here and keep that state in a state of flux all the time

12:43so there were uh you you enforced disappearances young boys and girls were abducted and so this kind

12:53of thing led to a movement from khyber pakistan to start targeting the security forces if you

13:02remember the army school incident in pakistan also uh where 153 children had died

13:11that was a very very strong reminder to pakistan but they did not listen and so what happens now is that

13:17the pakistan army started having too many casualties according to a figure of the institute of peace

13:27studies islamabad they've had so far almost 2500 soldiers killed so for a force like pakistan army

13:36which is revered in pakistan it was unacceptable because they thought they are losing their image

13:46inside pakistan and they must do something and they must do something big because unless they do it

13:54this could they will not be able to redeem their image so that's how in 2024 this air attack started

14:00when you talk about ttp i'm trying to understand because when pakistan says that it it wants to target

14:06ttp militants uh which have been provided a safe haven in afghanistan uh why doesn't it do anything

14:14related to is khurasan which is sitting inside of pakistan and attacking afghan soil why these double

14:22standards are the part of pakistan see pakistan is always believed this if you ask the pakistan

14:28government they will tell you that we've got nothing to do with isis khurasan but we know that the

14:34inside story is that isis khurasan is being monitored funded and orchestrated by the pakistan isi

14:44and they are quite active in afghanistan against the taliban and many attacks in gurdwaras and all

14:50these places have taken place in afghanistan by the isis khurasan that is their way of hitting back

14:59at the taliban government to tell them that don't mess with us so the point here is that conventionally

15:07see if you compare the militaries of the two countries i have done a detailed comparison i don't

15:14want to get into the nitty-gritties of it a seven billion dollars worth of american weapons were left

15:23behind by the americans and they are in the hands of the taliban and tariq taliban and also the bla now

15:32so what is happening now is that uh you have a 1.5 lakh uh taliban a forge i will call it it's not a

15:43regular army as such it has a semi-structure like army it has got a brigade and things like this

15:49and it it has a suicide element into their army they are capable of guerrilla attacks they are highly

15:58motivated and they live off the land that implies that they know the land better than the pakistan army

16:08because pakistan army 11 and 12 core is here and they are basically uh from punjab regiments in the

16:16regiment different different uh areas of pakistan they don't know this area well and they're not

16:24motivated because remember you are fighting against your own people because if you have an ethnicity

16:32within your own country in terms of 40 million people and you are hitting their brothers

16:40it implies you are killing your own people so that moral factor is very important and of course

16:49they are not very well trained in a gorilla warfare that is why the casualties are very high so pakistan

16:56always does you double standard i can give you example of kashmir also where jashen mohmand

17:02lashke tohband the resistance fund they keep on changing the name of their political uh these

17:08terrorist organizations so you are absolutely right enough that pakistan always plays double standards

17:14these double standards are getting exposed to the world now because baluchistan you know baluchistan

17:21after 10 pm in the night no area in baluchistan is under control of the pakistan army and pakistan army

17:29generally is in the barracks because of very heavy casualties the jafar express has been attacked three

17:38times in the last six eight months now so pakistan has no control over this situation almost two lack of

17:47of pakistan's security troops are there in these two states baluchistan and khyber pakhturwa and they

17:55have got only handful of fighters like bla strength is not more than 8 000 to 10 000 fighters and they are

18:06just in chattin kap dood that they are able to give back to the pakistan army in a very very strong

18:15measure uh we have seen visuals of sniper attacks uh ambushes and all this you're taking place so you

18:25are absolutely right the uh double standards and pakistan has what no other way of hitting back against

18:33afghanistan as a matter of fact when you start using your air when you start you using your jf-17 your most

18:42advanced aircraft against civilians and you i believe today three or four members of the afghanistan

18:53cricket team have been killed and there is a very great backlash in afghanistan on this we saw that

19:00three cricketers afghan cricketers were killed as you just mentioned do you think that this is the time when

19:06icc must review the security situation of the entire region and ban pakistan from playing it all you have

19:14a strong point because i think the afghan cricket team has already returned from pakistan they were to

19:20play some tournament there i believe and they were there and they have come back from that so i think

19:25that is the start point and a stage will come i think the icc uh where the chairmanship is with india now

19:34should take a common sense and afghanistan cricket council should put across this point in a very

19:42strong manner because unless this comes from afghanistan uh my icc will not be able to technically

19:49take any action so afghanistan must take it up in an official manner with icc and and i'm sure that

19:59this is a very strong case to ban pakistan from all icc events and it will be a kind of a message to

20:08all countries in this world who are supporting terrorism we will see more pan out in the next

20:14couple of days uh negotiators from both the countries afghanistan and pakistan are already

20:20uh going to doha to discuss about the situation to try and de-escalate it uh but do you think we can

20:26see a full-blown war between the countries given the fact that taliban doesn't have much of air power

20:33we don't know much about the fighter jets how many of them taliban has but it mostly relies as you just

20:38mentioned on gorilla warfare do you think that this situation can turn into a full-blown war see

20:47comparison of the armies is there's hardly anything because pakistan army is 6.5 lakhs

20:55they are only 1.5 and they don't have any much of air power i think 23 light attack uh american

21:03aircrafts are there and uh and they have some uh helicopters 30 or 40 of them you attack helicopters

21:12which have been left by the americans and they have a problem of spares i believe now russia is helping

21:17them with the spares they have those t-52 and t-72 tanks also with the russian origin are there but

21:26you see i don't think they can match but then you see pakistan cannot fight a conventional war there

21:31because first of all pakistan doesn't have the logistics to fight a war for a long duration it can

21:38go inside and it can fight for a few days then remember pakistan has got another front with india

21:44right now and which is quite hot and i you know i would be surprised it would be presumptive for me

21:52to say that possibly if pakistan does that that india has a very ripe opportunity to hit pakistan at this

21:59point of time because this would be the best opportunity for a pincer-like movement because

22:05uh from the west side also and from the east side also both get engaged but i don't think there'll be

22:14a war do you think that u.s could have helped pakistan in terms of intelligence sharing in terms of

22:20sharing the locations of these ttp militants who are in afghanistan uh you know i'll just take your

22:27attention back to about 15 20 days back when or maybe a few more days back when trump made a plea

22:40or a request to afghanistan for the bagram airbase and and afghanistan refused to actually give that

22:50bagram airbase to pakistan and the statement which came out of trump was that you will have to pay for

22:59it so i would like to relate that because it's very relevant i don't think anybody has connected

23:07these dots i've been going to so many tv channel but i haven't seen anybody connecting this dot with

23:15bagram but i would like to connect it here on your program this bagram dot is very essential because

23:23president trump has felt slighted he has felt that a country like afghanistan how can it say no to america

23:32in the same manner when india has said no to trump on the russian oil issue so therefore trump

23:40has a strong possibility and why general munir is being called again and again to pakistan to america

23:50it is for this very reason because now pakistan has been pressurized by the americans to take action

23:56against afghanistan all intelligence in terms of satellite imagery and all the locations of these

24:03uh uh uh uh taliban soldiers have been made known to pakistan pakistan carried out an attack on kabul and

24:14paktika areas on specific inputs from america because pakistan doesn't have this kind of a surveillance

24:22it has uh it actually uses the chinese uh you baidu system uh for the surveillance and

24:29one important aspect is that a message to china because of chinese expansion into afghanistan you

24:38would be aware that chinese metallurgical companies are already in afghanistan china has made a request to

24:46extend the cpec into afghanistan into and onwards to the central asian republics so trump is now

24:54fearful that bagram may in times to come be dominated by china already there have been some media reports

25:03if you have been following these reports that uh chinese presence was seen somewhere near background

25:12and that is why trump made a move to get into background so now trump has uh negotiated with

25:22the pakistan is to uh be there in the pasni port which is in baluchistan where the excuse is being

25:32given that the rare earth materials i don't know how many are there in pakistan all of a sudden the

25:37rare earth have actually cropped up i don't know the general munir takes a briefcase and he shows some

25:44eight ten item like a salesman he says that i've got rare earth so whatever it is the media

25:52your hype is that because of the rare earth trump is coming to pasni port but i don't think that is

25:58the exact reason you it's a geopolitical reason because the bagram has been denied so pasni is the next

26:06best option and you are absolutely right uh us is behind pakistan in this belligerent strand which

26:16pakistan is taking against afghanistan and one important point is that china has been

26:21uh pressurizing pakistan and not to fight this war so chinese have a sizable influence on the pakistan

26:30military let me tell you though today munir is uh uh he is i don't know how uh he will sit on two boats

26:40i think he'll drown oh it is kawad and i think there is a saying that uh

26:46uh uh the same thing will happen to pakistan because you see america first is not a trusted friend and

26:59america can pull its rug under pakistan in any time and china will feel also hurt that they have spent 45

27:11a billion dollars in cpec in pakistan and another 20 billion dollars have to be spent and pakistan is

27:19behaving in such a irresponsible manner so i think there is a merit in what you are saying that

27:27there is a u.s hand behind pakistan's action and a policy on afghanistan uh we also saw when mutaki

27:36visited india we also saw there was a lot of discussion whether how india should uh you know

27:42treat afghanistan especially taliban should it continue to have good ties in order to counter

27:47pakistan now when soviet-backed government fell in afghanistan we saw that india was supporting

27:53northern alliance but now the strategic outlook has completely changed uh vis-a-vis taliban do you

27:59think it is for the betterment for the stability of the reason given that pakistan is a rogue nation

28:04you see india is very circumspect now because india doesn't want to lose this opportunity

28:11not to have a presence in afghanistan because to have a presence in afghanistan has become a very

28:15important to india especially after operation hindu this happened and uh you know india wants its

28:23some kind of a presence there in terms of economic activity slowly it can build it up to a military

28:31activity also military collaboration exchange of weapons and it can strengthen the uh taliban army

28:38it can train the taliban army better so i think india wants its presence there and afghanistan is seeing

28:46opportunity now to mend defenses in india because see if you look at the problem between pakistan and

28:52afghanistan it is not going to be resolved it's like a kashmir problem you go it is going to remain

29:01because these pashtuns this cyber pakhtunva will not be handed over to pakistan and pakistan will not

29:10allow free movement pakistan has already constructed almost 97 or 98 percent fencing on the durian line

29:20pakistan is not going to relent so how does afghanistan sustain itself because pakistan has

29:27been a lifeline for afghanistan and one more important aspect which i think we are missing out is

29:33there are 12 lakh afghan refugees in pakistan what is their future this is very important because

29:43you know if these refugees have to come back to afghanistan now and i think pakistan foreign

29:49minister has made a statement today or yesterday in which he has said that we will throw out these

29:56refugees because already more than one lakh last year were sent back and i don't

30:04i don't negate that the possibility of this remaining 10 to 12 lakhs will also come back to afghanistan

30:10how are they going to sustain them so afghanistan right now needs india very badly

30:19and uh chabar port was one area from where india could get into afghanistan but there are other

30:26ways and means by which india will be able to reach afghanistan and support them and i think india has

30:35decided to stand up to afghanistan now and especially in this crisis because remember

30:44pashtuns are people who never forget a favor they are a tribe who will always remember that what you

30:56have done to help them in their uh an hour of you know crisis and i think india is very very firm on

31:04that shortly that embassy will also come up it will also be upgraded to a high commissioner or ambassador

31:11status and the kind of development work which was halted almost 3 billion dollars worth of and you

31:21400 projects are there where the indians are there in afghanistan right now and six more i think projects

31:28major projects are going to be announced this is what transpired in the meeting between the foreign

31:36ministers of the two countries so i think you india is playing its cards but i think indian needs to

31:45play these cards very very carefully because in geopolitics the dynamics can always change and

31:50especially the american factor will come into play remember that in case india has a very greater

31:57outreach to afghanistan america can play dirty with india so that aspect will also have to be taken

32:03into account especially when there's a tariff issue out there and and also remember one thing our

32:11tejas project which recently three production lines have been announced is largely dependent on

32:20g404 engines from america and out of 99 only four have been supplied so far so

32:29so so if the md of hal is making a statement that but 2035 he is going to provide 180 aircrafts to the a force

32:41it is largely dependent on the american support and if that support is not there the a force will have to

32:49rethink because they are already down to 29 scottlands so it is a tricky sort of a situation as far as india is

32:58also what do you think about elements like tlp because right before this conflict between pakistan

33:04and afghanistan we saw violent clashes happening between tlp and pakistani soldiers tlp is a very

33:10radical organization it believes in implementing the sharia law and recently we saw the violent clashes

33:17during anti-israel protests uh do you think that pakistan is sitting on a hot spot where it can

33:24become a situation which is completely out of hand and sort of an uprising inside pakistan because we

33:30have bla we have a lot of terrorist organization inside pakistan then we have parties like tlp

33:36see pakistan has badly handled the tlp issue because i've been following some of the very eminent

33:42panelists from pakistan and they've been discussing in their programs uh this uh agitation was never

33:51a violent one it was a peaceful agitation it started in that manner they wanted to go to islamabad they

33:59wanted to hand over memorandum and all they were not allowed to go there and slowly it escalated and i

34:05think uh munir took a very uh unnecessary stand i'm given to understand that one thousand people have been

34:13killed in this agitation and if that is the case i think uh what is the world doing what is the united

34:21states doing to ensure that such sort of killings are not taking place and it became uh these people

34:30became agitated because uh shabazz sharif was going there in sharm al-sheikh to be a part of that peace

34:42process where hamas was being uh told to sign on a peace agreement and hamas was being removed out

34:53from the scene for any further development in gaza you hamas is the sole representative of the

35:00palestinians in the region today and this piece is going to flop i am telling you on your program my

35:09assessment which i've given to number of national tv channels also i don't foresee any future in this

35:17peace agreement without involvement of hamas and it is not going to get implemented because

35:23they are not going to lay down their arms already hamas is got two to three factions and one faction

35:30which is in northern part of gaza has already taken up arms and has already said that we are not going

35:38to surrender so this problem will be there and this tlp issue has been made violent by the pakistan

35:46security forces they have badly handled it and now you see what is happening in pakistan look at pok

35:56pok is on a boil right now the tlp issue in lahore islamabad all these heartlands of pakistan have put

36:04the pakistan on a standstill now no foreign company is willing to come and invest in pakistan today

36:12yesterday i was uh looking at some of the statistics in pakistan their industry is in shambles

36:21the lowest ebb of the economy they are selling you the children to the world like you know they are

36:28a bunch of liars they are not giving the correct picture to the world they are just running after

36:34the west to get money funds imf to put in their own coffers they are not interested in the development

36:41of pakistan as it is this government is not elected government uh you it was a big election uh you know

36:49imran khan had won the elections and he and he's in jail today so if that is the state of pakistan that

36:56the people of pakistan themselves don't want this government and it is not elected by uh it is you you

37:02no form of a democracy as we say that so you are absolutely right the situation in pakistan is not

37:08very good because you uh baluchistan has a problem khyber pakhtuma has a problem pok has a problem and

37:16now the tlp issues also coming and slowly you will see that a civil war kind of situation is going to

37:24emerge and pakistan army only knows one thing to shoot innocent people it will not be able to contain it because

37:35they don't believe in dialogues and i was surprised to listen to dgispr uh such a responsible man

37:46making a statement that the time of negotiation is not there a time of action is there so if

37:54you are going to close the doors of negotiation how are you going to restore peace in the region

38:01it cannot come through coercion and i think your bad days for pakistan

Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) Exclusive | Is US Behind Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions?

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