00:00So, in our special series, In Focus, I have my guest today, Dr. Harsh Pant. He is a foreign
00:21policy expert who is currently serving as the vice president studies in foreign policy at the ORF
00:26Think Tank in New Delhi. He is also a professor of international relations at King's College
00:31in London. Dr. Pant, yesterday Trump claimed that PM Modi will soon end the imports of Russian oil.
00:39Between June and September this year, there was a drop of 45% of Russian oil imports by India's
00:46state-owned refineries. But what do you anticipate about the private sector? Do you think that private
00:52sector will also try to look at these geopolitical realities? See, I think some amount of
00:58recalibration from Russia was of course expected given that the upsurge in India's buying of Russian
01:08oil had a lot to do with the kind of discounts that Russia at one point was offering India.
01:14So, once the, you know, once those discounts ended and once the volatility in the global energy market
01:21also subsided to a certain extent, it was very clear that India would revert back and recalibrate
01:28its supplies. And any sensible buyer would diversify in this day and age. So, and India has always done
01:38that. So, I think it was, it has been, I don't think the decline has as much to do with the U.S.,
01:46partly to do with the U.S. But I don't think it is driven largely by what Mr. Trump is saying. And in
01:51any case, Mr. Trump was saying, his statement was about here and now. He seemed to be suggesting that
01:58he just had a call with Mr. Modi recently. And Mr. Modi has said that he would be, you know,
02:04stopping oil from Russia, which, which I think India has made it clear that that is not the case.
02:10And oil's energy supplies in India will be determined largely by India's own political economy,
02:17because it's a very important ingredient in our economic growth. And any inflationary pressure on
02:23energy prices would have a devastating impact for a large part of our population. So, any political,
02:30any government in India cannot afford to, you know, change the dynamic of the energy market
02:36and make it more volatile. So, I think largely what we are witnessing is that there has been
02:40relative decline from Russia, which was to be expected. But I, we still have to wait and watch
02:46and see how it stabilizes because energy markets are still in flux.
02:49Do you think Dr. Pan that we will see more of this happening towards the end of November and maybe
02:56probably towards the beginning of December, if there is even an iota of truth to what Trump said
03:01that India will halt Russian oils immediately because the contracts need to happen a couple of
03:06weeks prior. So, do you think that towards the end of November or maybe beginning of December,
03:10we will see how these oil imports have been impacted?
03:13I think we will have a clearer idea of the data, you know, by early December and then we can make some,
03:22some, you know, assertions in this regard. At this point, it's just too, you know, early and there is,
03:28I think whatever data we have does not purport to confirm Mr. Trump's view that India is doing it
03:35because he told India to do. I think India has been recalibrating for a while and India will continue to
03:39do it depending on the energy market. And of course, you know, we know that Prime Minister Modi had been
03:46in direct touch with the Russian President also and he is supposed to visit India in November, sorry,
03:52in early December. So clearly, you know, we may see another deal with the Russians. I think largely Mr. Trump
04:01is doing this for his own pace at home rather than because he needs to tell them that he has been successful
04:07on uncertain front and the Russia front, he clearly has not been successful.
04:11Right. And what do you think, Dr. Pant, how much infrastructure will play a role when India will,
04:17you know, think about this recalibration? Because the current infrastructure that we have, it is
04:23more adaptable for, you know, refining the Russian crude oil rather than the US sweet crude oil.
04:29So do you think that it will also play a factor?
04:31Of course, see, these kinds of decisions have a long gestation period. So to expect that overnight we
04:39will have our energy, you know, suppliers change is unrealistic. And also not from a country like
04:47India's perspective, which is a developing country, highly reliant on energy supplies for its economic
04:52growth, is not something that it can afford. So what any change is going to be a long term change,
04:59because it would require policy change, infrastructure change, it would require a reorientation in its
05:03foreign policy, which India at this point is not willing to do. I think if today what Mr. Trump has
05:09done with India, if anything India, many in India would be much more comfortable saying that we need to
05:16build a solid energy partnership with Russia, because who knows Mr. Trump and his, you know,
05:22he can change on a dime. So the unreliability of Mr. Trump, the unreliability of the Trump administration
05:30and the way they have proceeded on this issue will further, may further strengthen India's resolve to
05:35continue with Russia rather than decrease Russia. I think what India certainly can offer America
05:41is that India like in the past can buy more energy from the US. And I think that's certainly something
05:49that India can afford and India can put as a bargaining chip on the table as the trade negotiations,
05:55you know, continue. And US I think have also multiple times at global platforms have told about
06:02how it envisions itself to be a global hub when it comes to oil. So I think it's more so about US being
06:10a global leader in oil market rather than, you know, asking India so that the war in Ukraine can end.
06:16You think? Yes, yes, I think it's it's partly to do with America itself and Trump administration
06:23itself projecting its own energy capabilities. But I think partly it is to tell, you know,
06:29its base that Trump is doing something about the Russia-Ukraine war. Because let's remember,
06:35he came to office saying that within days, he can end this war. And now it has been 10 months in office
06:41and then the war has not stopped. In fact, it has escalated that the Russia-Ukraine front
06:44and Mr. Putin doesn't seem to be in any mood to concede. And I think that's a real degree of
06:50frustration. So what he does and what Mr. Trump does to protect his face from his base is to tell
06:58them that, look, I'm putting pressure on India, I'm putting pressure on China because these are the
07:02countries that are supporting the war effort. And without, and I don't think the irony is lost on
07:08anyone that this is not Modi's war, this is not, you know, India's war, this is primarily a war between
07:14Russia and the West. And I think ultimately, how they come to terms with each other will determine
07:19the fate of this conflict. India can India, even if India tomorrow decides to, you know, reduce
07:26completely its supplies from Russia, the war is not is going to continue because Russia has invested in
07:32the war far significantly enough, both politically and militarily, that it can't go back without
07:39attaining certain objectives. And at this point, the war seems to be frozen. And therefore, we are
07:43seeing an escalation on the battlefield. So I think for Mr. Trump, this is all about domestic projection.
07:48Right. And you spoke of China. Why do you think that Trump is not scrutinizing China
07:55as to how it's doing with India? No, see, I think he is, he is talking about China. I think the problem
08:01that he faces with China is that he hopes still that he can get a grand bargain out of China when,
08:08you know, and he continues to vacillate between not between being angry at Xi Jinping and leaving,
08:14you know, tariffs on him because, you know, for the rare earth, you know, issues and on the one hand
08:21and on the other, making a case that he would want to meet Xi Jinping and come and finalize the trade
08:28agreement. So I think he still feels that there is a possibility there that he can explore. And
08:33therefore, he uses China, you know, occasionally in his remarks when it comes to this particular project.
08:41But if you see, for him, the bigger issue, of course, remains, how do you come to terms with with China
08:48on a range of fronts, and then he has opened a number of those fronts. And it would be interesting to see
08:53whether they meet in the upcoming ASEAN summit or not. Trump has also been talking about how he
09:00wants to broaden the ties between US and Russia also when it comes to mineral deals or when it
09:07comes to increasing the trade also. Don't you think that it's a hypocrisy for US? And also a follow up
09:13question that even if he is able to end the war in Ukraine, don't you think that Russia may relaunch
09:18its offensive after filling the financial coffers of it through these trades? See, I think, I mean,
09:25hypocrisy is everywhere when it comes to Mr. Trump. And I don't think I don't think he thinks along
09:31those lines is his calculations are far pruder and simpler saying that look, I want this deal I want,
09:39I want an outcome if I'm not getting an outcome, I will put pressure on third parties.
09:43In this particular case, India becomes a party to this to this problem. He, you know, if Putin had
09:51given him a good deal early on, and ended the war, he would have been very happy, there would have been
09:55no issue. And in fact, a reasonable relationship between US and Russia serves India very well,
10:01because ideally, that would put that would bring India out of the picture. But I think because the
10:07relationship has not gone, you know, in between in US and Russia under Trump, along predictable lines,
10:13as he had expected, he is frustrated. And therefore, he's, you know, he's targeting third parties like
10:18India. And if I mean, see, Russia, Russia's Ukraine policy will be contingent on how Putin views Ukraine
10:29and the outcome of Ukraine for his own political survival, as well as for Russia's strategic interests,
10:34I don't think he will, he will make it contingent on what Mr. Trump thinks about him or about Russia.
10:40So, you know, I think Mr. Trump is, is fairly inaccurate in his assessment in that regard,
10:48and it would, it would be and many in America have said that, that this is something that we have to be
10:55more more clear-eyed about. We might see a summit happening between both the leaders in Budapest.
11:00And also there is a talk about US giving more defense equipment, Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
11:07In your point of view, do you think that Trump will be able to end this war after West Asia success?
11:13See, it depends on what we mean by ending the war. If it means freezing the war at this point in time,
11:19perhaps because we, I think we will be, we are entering the winter phase, which is the most difficult
11:25phase in, in, in, in this war, where, and the, in the two sides are basically frozen base, you know,
11:30we are seeing assaults on the energy grids of both sides. And there is a sense that look, this has,
11:38this has reached a dead end. Now, point, I think the point for both Russians and the Ukrainians is,
11:44do they view this, this pause as something that they can later come back to? Or do they think that this is,
11:51this, this freeze will lead to a more stable long-term outcome? I am not very sure that
11:58another summit with Mr. Putin is going to yield Mr. Trump very many dividends. Yes. I mean,
12:03we have, we saw, for example, what happened in Alaska and we have seen what happened, what happened
12:08since Alaska on the battlefield. It has escalated. Russians have gone all out. Ukrainians have been
12:13demanding more weapons. Americans have said that they would give more weapons if the need arose.
12:17So I think Mr. Trump is concerned, might be concerned that if, if he doesn't bring an end
12:24to this war, then America itself would get dragged into this. And this, this was something that he did
12:30not anticipate when he entered, when he had said that I would be ending this war in days. So I think
12:34his base would be very unhappy if, if the, the war drags on and elections are coming, midterm elections
12:40are coming in the US. And I think all of that, you know, puts pressure on his policy. So clearly, I think
12:46there are pressures on all sides to come to some sort of an arrangement, but I don't think any
12:50long lasting solution is anywhere near the site at this point in time. Thank you so much, Dr.
12:55Pan, for speaking with Asiannet News and giving your insights on this topic. Thank you.
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