Can India NAVIGATE US Pressure on Russian Oil? | Dr. Harsh Pant EXCLUSIVE - video Dailymotion

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In a stunning claim, US President Donald Trump alleges that Indian PM Narendra Modi has promised to halt oil imports from Russia—an assertion New Delhi neither confirms nor denies. Join foreign policy expert Harsh Pant as he breaks down the complexities behind US-India energy ties, ongoing trade tensions, and the geopolitical stakes involved. What does this mean for Russia, India, and global energy markets? Watch this exclusive interview under our special series 'In Focus'.   #InFocus #TrumpModi #RussianOil #IndiaUSRelations #HarshPant #EnergyPolitics #Geopolitics #TradeTensions #RussianOilImports #World  @pmoindia @DonaldJTrumpforPresident    🔊 LIKE ➡ SHARE ➡ SUBSCRIBE  Download the Asianet News App now!  Available on Android & iOS  👉 Android:  https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.vserv.asianet&hl=en_IN   👉 iOS:  https://apps.apple.com/in/app/asianet-news-official/id1093450032   For More Updates:  Follow us on our What's app Channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va5Bq3yKwqSLSQTxam0r  English: https://newsable.asianetnews.com/  Hindi: https://hindi.asianetnews.com/  Malayalam: https://www.asianetnews.com/  Kannada: https://kannada.asianetnews.com/  Tamil: https://tamil.asianetnews.com/  Telugu: https://telugu.asianetnews.com/  Bengali: https://bangla.asianetnews.com/  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AsianetNewsa...  Follow us on Twitter:  https://twitter.com/AsianetNewsEN  Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ann.newsable/  ➡ If you like our video, give us a thumbs up and subscribe to our channel to get the daily dosage of news, entertainment, sports and more.

Transcript

00:00So, in our special series, In Focus, I have my guest today, Dr. Harsh Pant. He is a foreign

00:21policy expert who is currently serving as the vice president studies in foreign policy at the ORF

00:26Think Tank in New Delhi. He is also a professor of international relations at King's College

00:31in London. Dr. Pant, yesterday Trump claimed that PM Modi will soon end the imports of Russian oil.

00:39Between June and September this year, there was a drop of 45% of Russian oil imports by India's

00:46state-owned refineries. But what do you anticipate about the private sector? Do you think that private

00:52sector will also try to look at these geopolitical realities? See, I think some amount of

00:58recalibration from Russia was of course expected given that the upsurge in India's buying of Russian

01:08oil had a lot to do with the kind of discounts that Russia at one point was offering India.

01:14So, once the, you know, once those discounts ended and once the volatility in the global energy market

01:21also subsided to a certain extent, it was very clear that India would revert back and recalibrate

01:28its supplies. And any sensible buyer would diversify in this day and age. So, and India has always done

01:38that. So, I think it was, it has been, I don't think the decline has as much to do with the U.S.,

01:46partly to do with the U.S. But I don't think it is driven largely by what Mr. Trump is saying. And in

01:51any case, Mr. Trump was saying, his statement was about here and now. He seemed to be suggesting that

01:58he just had a call with Mr. Modi recently. And Mr. Modi has said that he would be, you know,

02:04stopping oil from Russia, which, which I think India has made it clear that that is not the case.

02:10And oil's energy supplies in India will be determined largely by India's own political economy,

02:17because it's a very important ingredient in our economic growth. And any inflationary pressure on

02:23energy prices would have a devastating impact for a large part of our population. So, any political,

02:30any government in India cannot afford to, you know, change the dynamic of the energy market

02:36and make it more volatile. So, I think largely what we are witnessing is that there has been

02:40relative decline from Russia, which was to be expected. But I, we still have to wait and watch

02:46and see how it stabilizes because energy markets are still in flux.

02:49Do you think Dr. Pan that we will see more of this happening towards the end of November and maybe

02:56probably towards the beginning of December, if there is even an iota of truth to what Trump said

03:01that India will halt Russian oils immediately because the contracts need to happen a couple of

03:06weeks prior. So, do you think that towards the end of November or maybe beginning of December,

03:10we will see how these oil imports have been impacted?

03:13I think we will have a clearer idea of the data, you know, by early December and then we can make some,

03:22some, you know, assertions in this regard. At this point, it's just too, you know, early and there is,

03:28I think whatever data we have does not purport to confirm Mr. Trump's view that India is doing it

03:35because he told India to do. I think India has been recalibrating for a while and India will continue to

03:39do it depending on the energy market. And of course, you know, we know that Prime Minister Modi had been

03:46in direct touch with the Russian President also and he is supposed to visit India in November, sorry,

03:52in early December. So clearly, you know, we may see another deal with the Russians. I think largely Mr. Trump

04:01is doing this for his own pace at home rather than because he needs to tell them that he has been successful

04:07on uncertain front and the Russia front, he clearly has not been successful.

04:11Right. And what do you think, Dr. Pant, how much infrastructure will play a role when India will,

04:17you know, think about this recalibration? Because the current infrastructure that we have, it is

04:23more adaptable for, you know, refining the Russian crude oil rather than the US sweet crude oil.

04:29So do you think that it will also play a factor?

04:31Of course, see, these kinds of decisions have a long gestation period. So to expect that overnight we

04:39will have our energy, you know, suppliers change is unrealistic. And also not from a country like

04:47India's perspective, which is a developing country, highly reliant on energy supplies for its economic

04:52growth, is not something that it can afford. So what any change is going to be a long term change,

04:59because it would require policy change, infrastructure change, it would require a reorientation in its

05:03foreign policy, which India at this point is not willing to do. I think if today what Mr. Trump has

05:09done with India, if anything India, many in India would be much more comfortable saying that we need to

05:16build a solid energy partnership with Russia, because who knows Mr. Trump and his, you know,

05:22he can change on a dime. So the unreliability of Mr. Trump, the unreliability of the Trump administration

05:30and the way they have proceeded on this issue will further, may further strengthen India's resolve to

05:35continue with Russia rather than decrease Russia. I think what India certainly can offer America

05:41is that India like in the past can buy more energy from the US. And I think that's certainly something

05:49that India can afford and India can put as a bargaining chip on the table as the trade negotiations,

05:55you know, continue. And US I think have also multiple times at global platforms have told about

06:02how it envisions itself to be a global hub when it comes to oil. So I think it's more so about US being

06:10a global leader in oil market rather than, you know, asking India so that the war in Ukraine can end.

06:16You think? Yes, yes, I think it's it's partly to do with America itself and Trump administration

06:23itself projecting its own energy capabilities. But I think partly it is to tell, you know,

06:29its base that Trump is doing something about the Russia-Ukraine war. Because let's remember,

06:35he came to office saying that within days, he can end this war. And now it has been 10 months in office

06:41and then the war has not stopped. In fact, it has escalated that the Russia-Ukraine front

06:44and Mr. Putin doesn't seem to be in any mood to concede. And I think that's a real degree of

06:50frustration. So what he does and what Mr. Trump does to protect his face from his base is to tell

06:58them that, look, I'm putting pressure on India, I'm putting pressure on China because these are the

07:02countries that are supporting the war effort. And without, and I don't think the irony is lost on

07:08anyone that this is not Modi's war, this is not, you know, India's war, this is primarily a war between

07:14Russia and the West. And I think ultimately, how they come to terms with each other will determine

07:19the fate of this conflict. India can India, even if India tomorrow decides to, you know, reduce

07:26completely its supplies from Russia, the war is not is going to continue because Russia has invested in

07:32the war far significantly enough, both politically and militarily, that it can't go back without

07:39attaining certain objectives. And at this point, the war seems to be frozen. And therefore, we are

07:43seeing an escalation on the battlefield. So I think for Mr. Trump, this is all about domestic projection.

07:48Right. And you spoke of China. Why do you think that Trump is not scrutinizing China

07:55as to how it's doing with India? No, see, I think he is, he is talking about China. I think the problem

08:01that he faces with China is that he hopes still that he can get a grand bargain out of China when,

08:08you know, and he continues to vacillate between not between being angry at Xi Jinping and leaving,

08:14you know, tariffs on him because, you know, for the rare earth, you know, issues and on the one hand

08:21and on the other, making a case that he would want to meet Xi Jinping and come and finalize the trade

08:28agreement. So I think he still feels that there is a possibility there that he can explore. And

08:33therefore, he uses China, you know, occasionally in his remarks when it comes to this particular project.

08:41But if you see, for him, the bigger issue, of course, remains, how do you come to terms with with China

08:48on a range of fronts, and then he has opened a number of those fronts. And it would be interesting to see

08:53whether they meet in the upcoming ASEAN summit or not. Trump has also been talking about how he

09:00wants to broaden the ties between US and Russia also when it comes to mineral deals or when it

09:07comes to increasing the trade also. Don't you think that it's a hypocrisy for US? And also a follow up

09:13question that even if he is able to end the war in Ukraine, don't you think that Russia may relaunch

09:18its offensive after filling the financial coffers of it through these trades? See, I think, I mean,

09:25hypocrisy is everywhere when it comes to Mr. Trump. And I don't think I don't think he thinks along

09:31those lines is his calculations are far pruder and simpler saying that look, I want this deal I want,

09:39I want an outcome if I'm not getting an outcome, I will put pressure on third parties.

09:43In this particular case, India becomes a party to this to this problem. He, you know, if Putin had

09:51given him a good deal early on, and ended the war, he would have been very happy, there would have been

09:55no issue. And in fact, a reasonable relationship between US and Russia serves India very well,

10:01because ideally, that would put that would bring India out of the picture. But I think because the

10:07relationship has not gone, you know, in between in US and Russia under Trump, along predictable lines,

10:13as he had expected, he is frustrated. And therefore, he's, you know, he's targeting third parties like

10:18India. And if I mean, see, Russia, Russia's Ukraine policy will be contingent on how Putin views Ukraine

10:29and the outcome of Ukraine for his own political survival, as well as for Russia's strategic interests,

10:34I don't think he will, he will make it contingent on what Mr. Trump thinks about him or about Russia.

10:40So, you know, I think Mr. Trump is, is fairly inaccurate in his assessment in that regard,

10:48and it would, it would be and many in America have said that, that this is something that we have to be

10:55more more clear-eyed about. We might see a summit happening between both the leaders in Budapest.

11:00And also there is a talk about US giving more defense equipment, Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

11:07In your point of view, do you think that Trump will be able to end this war after West Asia success?

11:13See, it depends on what we mean by ending the war. If it means freezing the war at this point in time,

11:19perhaps because we, I think we will be, we are entering the winter phase, which is the most difficult

11:25phase in, in, in, in this war, where, and the, in the two sides are basically frozen base, you know,

11:30we are seeing assaults on the energy grids of both sides. And there is a sense that look, this has,

11:38this has reached a dead end. Now, point, I think the point for both Russians and the Ukrainians is,

11:44do they view this, this pause as something that they can later come back to? Or do they think that this is,

11:51this, this freeze will lead to a more stable long-term outcome? I am not very sure that

11:58another summit with Mr. Putin is going to yield Mr. Trump very many dividends. Yes. I mean,

12:03we have, we saw, for example, what happened in Alaska and we have seen what happened, what happened

12:08since Alaska on the battlefield. It has escalated. Russians have gone all out. Ukrainians have been

12:13demanding more weapons. Americans have said that they would give more weapons if the need arose.

12:17So I think Mr. Trump is concerned, might be concerned that if, if he doesn't bring an end

12:24to this war, then America itself would get dragged into this. And this, this was something that he did

12:30not anticipate when he entered, when he had said that I would be ending this war in days. So I think

12:34his base would be very unhappy if, if the, the war drags on and elections are coming, midterm elections

12:40are coming in the US. And I think all of that, you know, puts pressure on his policy. So clearly, I think

12:46there are pressures on all sides to come to some sort of an arrangement, but I don't think any

12:50long lasting solution is anywhere near the site at this point in time. Thank you so much, Dr.

12:55Pan, for speaking with Asiannet News and giving your insights on this topic. Thank you.

Can India NAVIGATE US Pressure on Russian Oil? | Dr. Harsh Pant EXCLUSIVE

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