00:00Lisa, thank you so much for talking to A&I. I really appreciate your time. Your reaction to the announcement just 24 hours ago, what do you make of it, how all of this really played out?
00:12Well, I think the announcement of the conclusion of the trade deal was very welcome and will provide a major boost to U.S.-India relations. I think that this is a big step in the right direction.
00:31I don't think that the relationship will turn around overnight. I think that there has been a lot of trust lost over the last 10 months, and there were not only trade problems, but also there have been disagreements between the U.S. and India, for example, on the aftermath of the India-Pakistan conflict, what happened there.
00:55So while this is a major step forward, I think that it will take time to get the U.S.-India relationship fully back on track.
01:06Now, in terms of what led to this announcement, I think it could be several things.
01:14I think, number one, Ambassador Sergio Gore arriving in New Delhi on January 9th, making positive statements over the last several weeks, and I think that he probably was able to communicate with President Trump, indicate the benefits of the deal, how important the relationship was.
01:37So I think that could be one contributing factor, I believe, was the fact that India's imports of Russian oil had been going down, particularly in December, and that was noticed by President Trump and appreciated.
01:51And then the third point would be the fact that India concluded a free trade agreement with the EU just last week, which shows that India has some options on the table for its goods.
02:07And so I think that could have prompted the U.S. to want to speed up its own trade agreement with India.
02:15So I think several factors probably played into how this all turned out, but those are just some of my thoughts.
02:25In terms of, you mentioned about the Russian crude oil, you know, India gearing down its import.
02:33We're hearing from the White House time and again that the ask was to seize the import of the crude oil.
02:42How do you see this playing out?
02:45Do you think India would probably step down in terms of its imports?
02:51Well, yes, I think India clearly is decreasing its level of imports of Russian oil.
02:58However, I think we noticed that Prime Minister Modi did not repeat the pledge that Prime Minister Trump said he had made, which was that India would completely halt Russian oil imports.
03:14So there could be some problems down the line.
03:20For example, if President Trump, you know, is expecting India to cut off the Russian oil imports completely by a certain time.
03:29And India maybe has a different understanding of what was committed to.
03:35So, you know, right now we're just getting some of the details.
03:40We don't have all of the details.
03:42But I think that this issue in particular could be tricky in that Prime Minister Modi, of course, does not want to be seen as caving into U.S. demands regarding its relationship with Russia,
03:58which considers a strong historical partner, but also Prime Minister Modi recognizes how important this is to President Trump.
04:08President Trump has been very consistent on wanting to see India reduce and eventually halt its Russian oil imports.
04:16But this could become a sticking point in the future.
04:19Right. Now, we've seen deals cut through earlier as well.
04:26We saw the South Korea deal and, you know, the fate of it, you know, where it stands today.
04:32How do you think India should really navigate this, navigate this whole issue in terms of what has been announced and really what the fine trends are and the path forward?
04:43Well, I think that, you know, number one, this is a good deal for both countries.
04:54It allows tariffs on India to go down from 50 percent to 18 percent.
05:00That is, you know, a major positive step for India.
05:07We're seeing India reduce Russian oil imports, which was a major demand from the United States.
05:13I think on the providing U.S. farmers access to the Indian market, I think that Prime Minister Modi stuck to his guns on this one.
05:25He was very clear that he was going to continue to protect Indian farmers.
05:32And that indeed seems to be what he has done.
05:34So neither side got everything it wanted.
05:36But that's the nature of a deal and the compromises that have to be made on each side.
05:43And I think this is very important because the U.S.-India partnership goes way beyond trade in terms of its importance for both countries' national security.
05:54And there has been so much invested in this relationship over the last 25 years that it really is essential we don't lose that strategic progress that has been made.
06:05So I think that's why this trade deal is so important because of the broader implications of the U.S.-India relationship.
06:16Now, in terms of Quad, you know, it is a strategic partnership between four countries.
06:27We haven't really seen a lot of movement in terms of the leaders' summit.
06:31Of course, there have been exercises on the sidelines, even though there were hiccups in the India-U.S. relationship.
06:38Do you think now with this deal we see that leaders' summit happening anytime soon or there would be more progress on the Quad?
06:49Well, I think that President Trump was clear that he didn't want to make a visit to India until the trade deal was signed.
06:57Well, that's now done.
06:58So it does open the door for starting that planning for President Trump's visit to India.
07:05And I think if that does happen, there will likely be a Quad summit in New Delhi, as was planned last fall.
07:13The question really is, when might this take place?
07:16Some people are saying it would send a good signal if President Trump visited India, held a Quad summit before his meeting with Xi Jinping, which happens in April.
07:29That would send a sign of unity of the U.S. and its allies and partners, and it would allow President Trump to go into his negotiations with China from a position of strength.
07:44But the problem is, April is around the corner.
07:47It's coming up very soon.
07:48It's not clear if there is enough time to plan a major visit to India right now.
07:55So I think we'll have to wait and see.
07:57But it certainly does open the door for resuming the planning of such a visit by President Trump.
08:06Now, Lisa, you've been, you know, in the government.
08:09And, you know, these deals are not easy.
08:13They are complex deals, a lot of back and forth.
08:16There are a lot of officials who work on this.
08:18You know, it didn't take as long as 18 years, like the India-EU deal.
08:23But then, yes, this deal has taken some time.
08:26Talk to us about, you know, who you think, in your view, is the real dealmaker here or somebody, you know, the toughest negotiator here.
08:34Well, I think President Trump himself has shown himself to be a pretty tough negotiator.
08:42After all, what we heard this past summer is that there was a deal on the table, that it was a deal that both the head of USTR, Jameson Greer, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, thought it was a pretty good deal.
08:57But when it got to President Trump's desk, it was not good enough for him.
09:02So I think, ultimately, President Trump makes the call on these trade deals.
09:09We've seen that time and again.
09:11And so, you know, he was finally convinced about the benefits of this trade deal with India.
09:21And, you know, perhaps arguments were made about how important the strategic partnership was.
09:27Perhaps Ambassador Sergio Gore was able to convince the president to move forward.
09:34I'm sure all of these details will be coming out in due time.
09:38But I think it's clear that it's President Trump himself who is the real dealmaker.
09:43In terms of, you know, we know that the papering is on as we speak.
09:50What are you expecting from the fine print or, you know, the releases or the joint statement from both the sides?
09:59Well, I think, you know, we'll see what the major, you know, outlines of the trade deal are.
10:12I'm sure there'll be a lot of talk about the strategic partnership and, you know, all of the work that went into this agreement, you know, from everybody from the USTR, Jameson Greer, Secretary of State Rubio, Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnik.
10:34There are many people who were involved in these trade talks.
10:41So I think, you know, we'll see that a lot of praise will go toward these officials who helped get it across the finish line.
10:52Not to mention all the Indian officials that have been involved for so many months in these trade talks.
10:58It's really been a long slog and it's required a lot of patience on both sides and among, you know, both sides negotiators.
11:06So I'm sure there will be, you know, a sense of relief and a sense of, you know, jubilation when, you know, the joint statement, you know, finally comes out about the trade deal because it's definitely been a long haul between the two sides.
11:22Right. Now, your final word on, you know, how you see this deal of, you know, improving or taking the India-U.S. relations to the next level, probably.
11:37Well, I think even though cooperation between the U.S. and India has continued, defense cooperation has continued.
11:47We saw that with the signing of the 10-year defense framework agreement this past fall.
11:54We've seen cooperation continue on things like AI as well as, you know, other issues.
12:03So, but what this trade deal does is it really unlocks, it provides the impetus and catalyst for other parts of the interagency to move forward, you know, more quickly to, you know, solidify those initiatives that may have been in the works.
12:26So, even though, you know, cooperation was continuing at a certain level between the two countries, I think what we'll see is we'll see a major, you know, leap forward in terms of, you know, solidifying initiatives, moving out on, you know, major defense initiatives.
12:46And this really will unlock progress in the rest of the bilateral relationship.
12:52So, all right, on that note, thank you so much for talking to A&I, Lisa, I really appreciate your time.
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