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The federal government has made some major concessions in order to get its superannuation tax reforms through parliament with the changes to include an extra super top-up for low-income earners. Housing and Economic Security Program Director at the Grattan Institute Brendan Coates says the policy may be a step backwards.

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00:00The government has been trying to scale back excessively generous tax rates to those with
00:07very large superbalances. That's where that original policy to have a higher earnings
00:11tax rate on balances above $3 million came from. What the government announced yesterday
00:15is they're going to index that $3 million threshold so it will apply to fewer people
00:20over time than it otherwise would have with the government's original policy. And they're
00:24also seeking to change exactly how they calculate that tax liability so it excludes unrealised
00:29capital gains which was the sticking point. Overall those two policies are going to raise
00:33less, changes are going to raise less revenue than they otherwise would have so it's going
00:36to claw back less of those really generous tax breaks going to older Australians who have
00:41got large balances in particular. They have tried to offset that by having a new higher
00:46threshold of $10 million where a 40% tax rate will apply to earnings which will make it pretty
00:51unattractive to keep money inside super. But on balance this package raises less revenue
00:56each year than what the previous policy did, even accounting for the listo, the fact that
01:01they're topping up expanding the low income super tax offset to boost the amount of super
01:06that low income earners get, basically making sure they don't pay a higher tax rate on their
01:11super contributions than they would have been paying on their earnings. But it raises less
01:17revenue, it does less to support budget repair and so it does less to fulfil the objective of
01:22unwinding those excessively generous tax breaks at the top. It can be confusing for many and
01:27we are going to step through this but I guess the most simple change is that the start date has been
01:32pushed back. Yeah, so the government is going to consult on how they actually come up with this
01:37alternative way of calculating what the tax liability is going to be. That pushes the start back
01:43back by one year. That in and of itself will cost the government revenue in excess of $2 billion in
01:48that one year. The reason they're doing that is because superannuation, when we're talking about
01:53the earnings on the fund, the dividends and the like, that is taxed at the fund level, not at the
01:58level of the individual, which makes it hard to apply an individual tax rate or higher tax rate to some
02:04members of that fund than others. And all the policy debate over the last few years has really been about how the
02:10government can actually determine that liability in a way that doesn't capture unrealised capital gains
02:16because the way they've planned to do it is to basically look at the balance at the start of
02:19the period, the balance at the end, take the difference as the increase in earnings. That
02:24captures unrealised gains. They're going to have to come up with a different approach. We don't know
02:27what that is yet and whatever it will be will probably have its own wrinkles or its own costs
02:33that we'll only see and be able to evaluate once the government says which way they're going to go.
02:37Yeah, so a lot to work through on that. Now, you mentioned a moment ago, this super top up for
02:42low income earners. You know, what determines that amount? What do they have to be earning under?
02:48And what exactly does it mean for them? Yeah, so superannuation for most people is taxed,
02:53whether it's contributions that compulsory contributions you must make that your employer
02:58makes on your behalf into your super fund, they are typically taxed at 15%. But low income earners,
03:03those earning less than $45,000 a year will, in future, be only taxed at a personal income tax
03:10rate of 14%. So they would be paying a higher rate of tax on their super contributions and on their
03:14earnings. To offset that, there has been a low income superannuation tax offset that basically
03:20refunds that tax that is historically applied to people with earnings of up to $37,000 a year.
03:26That is going to be extended to $45,000 a year. And the total size of the offset,
03:31the maximum value is going to go from $500 to $810 a year. In short, the reason the government is
03:37doing that is it basically means that anyone earning less than $45,000 a year, they get some
03:41tax break on the compulsory contributions that they are forced to make. They're not paying a higher tax
03:46rate on those super contributions than what they are on their wage and salary income that goes into their
03:50pocket each week. And now you already mentioned that second threshold of $10 million. If we go
03:56to that initial threshold of those with the earnings above $3 million in their super,
04:02of course, we know that $3 million today, for those in super, that's very few people,
04:06but $3 million today is very different to $3 million in 10 years, 20 years time.
04:10It's being indexed, so it should continue to affect a small proportion.
04:16That's right. So it affects about 80,000 people today. So we are only talking about a relatively
04:20small change that affects 0.5% of all super fund members in Australia. We never saw the need to
04:25index it because the threshold really should have been lower than $3 million in the first place.
04:29On our numbers, if it was left unindexed until 2040, so five federal elections time, it would be
04:36worth the equivalent of $2 million today, which is the point at which we thought it should be indexed.
04:41So, you know, the claims that have been made that this was somehow going to affect middle
04:45Australia or most Australians within a couple of decades time was incorrect, even by 2055. So,
04:52you know, in 10 plus federal elections time, we estimated it would have only affected one in 10
04:57Australians. And it was always going to be indexed at some point. The personal income tax scales are
05:02not indexed. So not indexing these thresholds is actually pretty normal. So the consequence of the
05:07government's decision is that they'll collect less revenue over time because it'll only affect that
05:12really small number of people. Those with balances between say $2 and $3 million that probably should
05:17have been picked up in the system over time will not be. And that ultimately means governments
05:22have to collect high taxes from elsewhere or Australians enjoy poorer levels of service or we
05:27have higher levels of government debt to compensate. What would you most like to see next on super tax
05:32reform? Look, there's about $10 billion a year of concessions in the system that really
05:37don't serve any genuine policy purpose. They're helping those that are never going to end up
05:42anywhere near the age pension are already going to are well on track to have a comfortable retirement.
05:46The big one is the fact that once you hit 60, the first $2 million that you have in your super fund,
05:52the earnings on that are tax free. It means that most Australians are checking out of
05:55the income tax system when they hit retirement. That's not really sustainable in a world of an aging
05:59population. So taxing those earnings in retirement, the same as we do when we're working.
06:04So your and my earnings on our super fund are taxed today, but when we hit retirement,
06:08they won't be. That would raise north of $6 billion a year. And then there are a series of
06:13changes you could make to how the tax breaks work for contributions that could raise easily another
06:18$4 billion a year. And that's, you know, I think what comes out of the conversation,
06:22the reaction I have to yesterday's announcement is this is probably the easiest super tax change to make
06:27and the government has taken a backward step. Everything else from here will be harder,
06:32but super tax reform is critical. It's the key that unlocks the door of broader tax reform in
06:36Australia, because if we're going to reduce income taxes, if we're going to reduce taxes on corporates,
06:41if we're going to try to fix the budget, then there's few better candidates than
06:44super tax breaks in Australia today.
06:46Brandon Coates from the Grattan Institute. Thanks for joining us.
06:49Brandon Coates from the Grattan Institute. Thank you.
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