Lt Gen (Retd) Hasnain Exclusive | Testing Waters or Escalation? Pakistan’s Sir Creek Moves - video Dailymotion

Asianet News English

Pakistan’s latest maneuvers in the strategically sensitive Sir Creek region have set off new alarms in India. With rapid military build-up and new forward bases is Islamabad testing India’s resolve or planning something more? In this Exclusive conversation for Asianet News' special series 'In Focus', Lt Gen (Retd.) Syed Ata Hasnain unpacks what these moves mean for India’s maritime security, explains why Sir Creek is emerging as a flashpoint, and discusses what to watch in the days ahead. Watch the full analysis now.

Transcript

00:00Today I have with me Lieutenant General Syed Atta Hasnend. He is a very prominent commentator

00:18on national security issues especially when it comes to India-Pakistan relations. He is

00:23currently the Chancellor at the Central University of Kashmir and today we have connected with him

00:28to speak on a very important issue, the Serk Creek issue. It has become a renewed flashpoint

00:33between India and Pakistan. This is something which has always remained a disputed, a contested

00:38territory. Intelligence reports suggested that there is a military build-up around this

00:43region. Now this region is very strategically important because if Pakistan gains more control

00:48to this area, it will become a launchpad for Pakistan to attack India, not only militarily

00:53but also in terms of cross-border terrorism. How important do you think this region is,

00:58both security-wise and economically as well? First of all, thank you for inviting me for

01:04your program. Yes, you are absolutely correct in identifying the Serk Creek issue as a very

01:10important strategic issue for India's national security. Having said that, there are two angles

01:17to it which you have yourself identified. First, the economic angle. Any territory lost or even the

01:24territory which is supposedly, which is under our control at the moment, if we don't look after that

01:30territory, there is always the danger of the exclusive economic zone which is linked to that territory

01:39and the control of that territory going away from under our influence and our capability to defend it.

01:45That's an important thing because the huge area for fisheries, for undersea minerals and for shipping

01:53in general. So this has its own economic connotations. But more than that, even more than that,

02:01is the security aspect. You see, this is a broken area. When we say broken, it means the terrain is very

02:07difficult. It's crisscrossed by all kinds of rivulets which keep course based upon the tight tidal patterns.

02:16It's an estuary, basically, and which has got a couple of channels which are coming in.

02:23Pakistan, of course, has extended its claim to a certain area, the eastern part of that area, to say

02:30that that entire area, it belongs to it. While India follows the international principle of any disputed

02:37territory, especially waterways, it is always the mid-course of the current that determines what the

02:44territorial division is. Pakistan does not believe that. So it seems that the geopolitical environment,

02:54which is existing at the moment in the Indian subcontinent, is the issue which has brought the

03:01Sur Creek problem into prominence at the moment. Pakistan has found a newfound strategic importance

03:09in the international community, based upon President Trump's sudden love for Pakistan, so to say.

03:17And whatever he has against India seems rather peeved about it and it seems that we will have to live

03:24with this during his presidency. I, for one, initially did perceive that this was a temporary aberration,

03:30but it seems that we've got to live with it. Now, with Pakistan having found such favour,

03:36it seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters. It's not necessary that they may do anything

03:42particular here, but just by carrying out certain overtures like building up your infrastructure or

03:48moving some groups into that area, they are testing our responses to see what is the possible

03:54way that India is going to respond. And they're also looking for international backing and potentially

04:01a small action which may lead to the US back in Pakistan for it. So this is the kind of a testing of

04:07the waters of the strategic environment at the moment. Do you think that China also plays a very

04:13important role? Because we know that China supports Pakistan military-wise and also infrastructure-wise,

04:19given the fact that how it's trying to expand the Belt and Road Initiative. China can also try and push

04:25for the internationalization of this issue because India continues to have a firm stand that it needs

04:31to be a bilateral diplomatic talk and not something which needs to be internationalized. Do you think that

04:37China also plays a very important role here? Well, China, in the current environment, China,

04:43our relations with China have improved definitely and China does realize that India is an important

04:48nation for it from an economic angle because the Chinese economy has downsized all of a sudden,

04:54the growth rates have come down and the United States is not a trustworthy element to work with.

05:01So India is one of the trusted, it's not trusted should I say, but one of those countries with whom

05:07China finds it easier to work at the moment, a mutuality of interest as such. So it's not as if

05:13China is looking to upset the apple cart in any way, but there are other ways of doing it as you

05:19yourself suggest that through Pakistan, through the proxy of Pakistan, keeping India under pressure.

05:26One of the ways is through the Kashmir issue, one of the other ways is through the LA line of actual

05:30control in Ladakh and here are the other extremities in Surkri. Now if you have both ends, Ladakh,

05:37Kargil, Siachen, Kashmir and Surkri all in ferment at any time, it means essentially your entire western front

05:47is on the brink, so to say. So it is, yes, definitely to China's interest to keep our gaze,

05:54to keep our focus diverted towards the western front and not so much to the northern front where

05:59we confront China at the moment. This is not necessary that it is going to lead to war tomorrow.

06:05These are the kind of issues which nations work up, play out essentially to keep their adversaries

06:12under pressure. Ensure that they do not have the funds to be able to spend on other diverse projects.

06:19For example, the Chinese would not be happy with India strengthening the Indian Navy, for example,

06:25because the maritime zone is the area where China's weakness is prevalent. So from that angle,

06:31definitely the Chinese have an interest and the last last issue on this is the entire area of the

06:37north-west Indian Ocean that is stretching from, let's say, the Gujarat coast and going right up to

06:46Bandar Abbas and connecting up all the way to the area around the Red Sea is a great area of interest for

06:55China, primarily because all its oil, all its energy resources flow from this area. The reason why

07:03China could achieve such a phenomenal rate of growth was because these were secure lines of energy

07:10which were coming through the Indian Ocean to them. They don't want this upset. Definitely,

07:15having greater influence on the exclusive economic zone around these areas will contribute to Chinese

07:22security too. Out of concern, just trying to understand from you, because you also just mentioned

07:27at the beginning of this interview that this area consists of mudflats and it's not easy to have

07:34infrastructure there. How ready is India right now? Because in 2023, when India started to construct

07:42on this particular Maurya Bet Island, Pakistan objected to it. How ready India is in terms of its

07:49reconnaissance capabilities, its infrastructure to be able to have better surveillance so that Pakistani

07:55fishermen or Pakistani boats or even Pakistani military does not infiltrate?

08:00Very good question. And I have been bringing historical context to this. If you remember 1965,

08:08the war of 65 did not start from Punjab or Kashmir. It actually started from here in Bhuj, right there on

08:16the Bhuj coastline. 1971. Again, later on, this area was reasonably active. After Kargil, this is the area

08:30where if you remember the Atlantic aircraft, which is the maritime surveillance aircraft of the Pakistan

08:37Navy was shot down by India with 16 people who died in that air crash. The aircraft fell on the Pakistani

08:45side and the Pakistanis always claimed that they had never penetrated Indian airspace. So this area has

08:51a history of tension. And we know that Pakistan, every time there is some major conflagration up north,

08:59always attempts to do something in this area, which is one of the reasons why India has been very,

09:04very circumspect about what's happening at the moment. Having said that, I have the fullest confidence

09:11that the Indian armed forces and jointly, not just the Indian army, but jointly the Navy, the Army and

09:17the Air Force along with the BSF have got their act together, have always had a certain focus on this

09:23particular area. The presence of Mr. Rajnath Singh for the Sera celebrations with the troops in Bhuj was a

09:32notional symbolic act to project and tell people across the border that we are ready. Our focus is very much

09:40in this area. Shastra Puja was performed there, if you remember, and quickly thereafter, immediately

09:47thereafter, the Army chief has made a number of statements, the Air Force chief has made a number

09:51of statements, all this outlining primarily and focusing, projecting that India is in a state of

09:58readiness. In terms of infrastructure, in terms of technology, India has upgraded itself very greatly in

10:06the last 10 to 12 years. And today, satellite surveillance over that particular area, a number

10:13of reconnaissance flights, maritime reconnaissance flights, other reconnaissance flights keep flying

10:19over these areas. Drone surveillance is the order of the day at the moment. So, I don't think we have

10:26anything to really worry about. The government once is concerned, once the intelligence agencies have got

10:33their focus on it, I don't think we really need to worry too much. What is the resolution to this

10:39dispute? Because after 2016, when Pathan Court happened, the talks, the diplomatic interaction between

10:46the two countries absolutely was stalled. How soon? Because now we have a renewed tension after

10:52Operation Sindhur. Do you think that these diplomatic talks can resume in the future?

10:58If you recall, Sur Creek and Siachen were both termed as a low-hanging fruit at one time by the

11:07Pakistanis and with the perception that these two could be resolved independent of the Kashmir issue.

11:15India, to an extent, also thought that we could resolve Sur Creek, not Siachen. Siachen is connected to

11:21Jamun Kashmir. But Sur Creek, we went along and we were in a stage of negotiations at that time.

11:29But thereafter, the incorrigible kind of approach and attitude that Pakistan has displayed

11:37in attempting to come to terms with India, buy peace with India, it seems that this issue now also

11:45has got related to the larger issues of all disputes with Pakistan. So I think talks and terrorism,

11:52as we say, cannot go together. This also has become a part of that issue and I don't foresee a resolution

11:59to it any time in the future. The rise of nationalist fervour in the country as it is will prevent any

12:05kind of a resolution which is not in favour of India. So I don't think the political climate within

12:11the subcontinent permits any resolution at this time.

12:18Right. Just last question, General. You've already spoken about it in brief, but I want to pose this

12:24question again to you. The timing of the Sur Creek issue and how Pakistan has, you know, tried to ramp up

12:32its military infrastructure right after Operation Sindhu. Do you think it is all because of Trump's backing

12:37to Pakistan or Pakistan had this in mind earlier? Well, let me go a little beyond what you have just

12:43said. Pakistan's rising strategic confidence, where does it come from? A couple of factors

12:52which you have to consider. When you look at the geopolitical angle, a lot of us are only focusing

12:57on the Trump factor, not realising that there are many other connections also. Turkey, the support from

13:03Turkey, the transactional support which it is getting from Iran today, right? The pact it has just signed

13:11with Saudi Arabia, right? And of course, the Chinese support is a universal support which continues

13:18around the clock, around the year, all the time. So geopolitically, Pakistan seems to be on a diplomatic

13:24high at the moment and that always contributes to an Asian strategic confidence. The second aspect is

13:30the internal security situation in Pakistan is not too good. As you see what is happening in Pakistan

13:37occupied Jammu and Kashmir at the moment, a lot of turbulence and the last two years in particular

13:42now seems to have come to a head at this time. And this can turn very, very dangerous for Pakistan.

13:49Similarly, the Taliban problem is very much prevalent. The Balochistan issue refuses to go away.

13:57So internally, there is a fair degree of turbulence. The last part is psychologically.

14:03Pakistan, the Pakistan army seems to be in a self-delusionary kind of a mode where it has told,

14:11it seems to sell to the people, to the government and everything. 1965, Pakistan army did not lose

14:17the war. 6th of September is celebrated as victory day, right? Thereafter, this also claims that 1971,

14:25it never lost the war because Bangladesh was a different story. It was 1,000 kilometers,

14:301,000 miles away from the mainland Pakistan and it was completely isolated militarily. It had no resources

14:37while on the Western Front. See how well the Pakistan army performed. Now, these are the kind of stories.

14:43Pakistan is very good at narrative building and storytelling and this is what it has been doing

14:47all along. It has always convinced the people that Pakistan will not lose tomorrow if they start a war.

14:55And the last issue here is, recall Kargil. Recall other incidents. Everywhere Pakistan has

15:03irrationally triggered a conflict. Never knowing where to take it and where to conclude it. It has always

15:10ended up with head on his face. When you keep putting all this into a crucible, you realize that the

15:17situation today is such that India should be prepared. An irrational act could take place very much

15:26to sell it to the public, to the Pakistani public, to the Pakistani media and the deep state and the

15:31political community there. Divert attention from the internal security problems and gather the or test out

15:40the waters of the international kind of support which it is gathering at the moment. So, it's an

15:45awkward kind of a situation and I think India is doing the right thing. By sending out the right

15:50messages, what we are doing at the moment when talking about Operation Sindhu 2.0 is something which

15:56we have not done in the past. That is narrative building. Telling the other side we are prepared.

16:02We are fully prepared. Try it and test us if you wish. Right. So, I think the bottom line is that

16:08Pakistan will continue to be a rogue nation on the offensive, but India will be strategically on the

16:14defensive side and continue to have a better surveillance and infrastructure in the Silk Creek

16:19region. Well, on that note, General, thank you so much for taking out the time and speaking with

16:23Nationate News. Your perspective matters a lot and hope to connect with you soon.

Lt Gen (Retd) Hasnain Exclusive | Testing Waters or Escalation? Pakistan’s Sir Creek Moves

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