Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd) EXCLUSIVE: Why Sir Creek Could Be the Next India-Pakistan Flashpoint

Asianet News English

Pakistan’s latest maneuvers in the strategically sensitive Sir Creek region have set off new alarms in India. With rapid military build-up and new forward bases is Islamabad testing India’s resolve or planning something more? In this Exclusive conversation for Asianet News' special series 'In Focus', Lt Gen (Retd.) Syed Ata Hasnain unpacks what these moves mean for India’s maritime security, explains why Sir Creek is emerging as a flashpoint, and discusses what to watch in the days ahead. Watch the full analysis now.  #SirCreek #IndiaPakistan #Security #Defence #AtaHasnain #Geopolitics #MilitaryAnalysis #MaritimeSecurity #SirCreekDispute #World   🔊 LIKE ➡ SHARE ➡ SUBSCRIBE  Download the Asianet News App now!  Available on Android & iOS  👉 Android:  https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.vserv.asianet&hl=en_IN   👉 iOS:  https://apps.apple.com/in/app/asianet-news-official/id1093450032   For More Updates:  Follow us on our What's app Channel: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va5Bq3yKwqSLSQTxam0r  English: https://newsable.asianetnews.com/  Hindi: https://hindi.asianetnews.com/  Malayalam: https://www.asianetnews.com/  Kannada: https://kannada.asianetnews.com/  Tamil: https://tamil.asianetnews.com/  Telugu: https://telugu.asianetnews.com/  Bengali: https://bangla.asianetnews.com/  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AsianetNewsa...  Follow us on Twitter:  https://twitter.com/AsianetNewsEN  Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ann.newsable/  ➡ If you like our video, give us a thumbs up and subscribe to our channel to get the daily dosage of news, entertainment, sports and more.

Transcript

00:00Today I have with me Lieutenant General Syed Atta Hasnain. He is a very prominent commentator

00:18on national security issues especially when it comes to India-Pakistan relations. He is

00:23currently the Chancellor at the Central University of Kashmir and today we have connected with him

00:28to speak on a very important issue, the Serk Creek issue. It has become a renewed flashpoint

00:33between India and Pakistan. This is something which has always remained a disputed, a contested

00:38territory. Intelligence report suggested that there is a military build-up around this region.

00:44Now this region is very strategically important because if Pakistan gains more control to this

00:48area, it will become a launchpad for Pakistan to attack India, not only militarily but also

00:54in terms of cross-border terrorism. How important do you think this region is, both security-wise

01:00and economically as well?

01:02First of all, thank you for inviting me for your program. Yes, you are absolutely correct

01:07in identifying the Serk Creek issue as a very important strategic issue for India's national

01:13security. Having said that, there are two angles to it which you have yourself identified.

01:19First, the economic angle. Any territory lost or even the territory which is supposedly under

01:27our control at the moment, if we don't look after that territory, there is always the danger

01:34of the exclusive economic zone which is linked to that territory and the control of that territory

01:41going away from under our influence and our capability to defend it. That's an important thing because

01:47the huge area for fisheries, for undersea minerals and for shipping in general. So, this has its

01:57own economic connotations. But more than that, even more than that, is the security aspect.

02:03You see, this is a broken area. When we say broken, it means the terrain is very difficult. It's

02:09crisscrossed by all kinds of rivulets which keep course based upon the tight tidal patterns. It's an

02:16estuary, basically, and which has got a couple of channels which are coming in. Pakistan, of course,

02:24has extended its claim to a certain area, the eastern part of that area, to say that that entire

02:31area belongs to it. While India follows the international principle of any disputed territory,

02:37then it is especially waterways. It is always the mid-course of the current that determines

02:44what the territorial division is. Pakistan does not believe that. So, it seems that

02:52the geopolitical environment which is existing at the moment in the Indian subcontinent

02:58is the issue which has brought the Sur Creek problem into prominence at the moment. Pakistan has

03:06found a newfound strategic importance in the international community based upon President

03:12Trump's sudden love for Pakistan, so to say. And whatever he has against India seems rather peeved

03:22about it and it seems that we will have to live with this during his presidency. I, for one,

03:27initially did perceive that this was a temporary aberration, but it seems that we've got to live

03:31with it. Now, with Pakistan having found such favour, it seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters.

03:39It's not necessary that they may do anything particular here, but just by carrying out certain

03:46overtures like building up your infrastructure or moving some troops into that area, they are testing our

03:51responses to see what is the possible way that India is going to respond. And they're also looking for

03:58international backing and potentially a small action which may lead to the US packing Pakistan for it.

04:05So, this is a kind of a testing of the waters of the strategic environment at the moment.

04:10Do you think that China also plays a very important role? Because we know that China supports Pakistan

04:17military-wise and also infrastructure-wise given the fact that how it is trying to expand the Belt and

04:22Road Initiative. China can also try and push for the internationalisation of this issue because India

04:28continues to have a firm stand that it needs to be a bilateral diplomatic talk and not something which

04:34needs to be internationalised. Do you think that China also plays a very important role here?

04:39Well, China, in the current environment, China, our relations with China have improved definitely

04:45and China does realise that India is an important nation for it from an economic angle because the

04:52Chinese economy has downsized all of a sudden, the growth rates have come down and the United States

04:58is not a trustworthy element to work with. So, India is one of the trusted, it's not trusted should I say,

05:04but one of those countries with whom China finds it easier to work at the moment, a mutuality of

05:11interest as such. So, it's not as if China is looking to upset the apple cart in any way, but there are

05:18other ways of doing it as you yourself suggest. Through Pakistan, through the proxy of Pakistan,

05:23keeping India under pressure. One of the ways is through the Kashmir issue, one of the other way is

05:29through the LA line of actual control in Ladakh and here are the other extremities in Surkri. Now,

05:34if you have both ends, Ladakh, Kargil, Siachen, Kashmir and Surkri all in ferment at any time,

05:44it means essentially your entire western front is on the brink, so to say. So, it is yes definitely to

05:52China's interest to keep our gaze, to keep our focus diverted towards the western front and not so

05:57much to the northern front where we confront China at the moment. This is not necessary that it is

06:03going to lead to war tomorrow. These are the kind of issues which nations work up, play out essentially

06:10to keep their adversaries under pressure, ensure that they do not have the funds to be able to spend

06:17on other diverse projects. For example, the Chinese would not be happy with India strengthening the

06:24Indian Navy, for example, because the maritime zone is the area where China's weakness is prevalent. So,

06:30from that angle, definitely the Chinese have an interest and the last issue on this is,

06:36the entire area of the north-west Indian Ocean that is stretching from, let's say, the Gujarat coast,

06:44and going right up to Bandar Abbas and connecting up all the way to the area around the Red Sea,

06:53is a great area of interest for China, primarily because all its oil, all its energy resources

07:00flow from this area. The reason why China could achieve such a phenomenal rate of growth was because

07:08these were secure lines of energy which were coming through the Indian Ocean to them. They don't want

07:13this upset. Definitely, having greater influence on the exclusive economic zone around these areas

07:21will contribute to Chinese security too. Out of concern, just trying to understand from you,

07:26because you also just mentioned at the beginning of this interview that this area is, you know,

07:32consists of mudflats and it's not easy to have infrastructure there. How ready is India right now?

07:38Because in 2023, when India, you know, started to construct on this particular Mauryabat island,

07:44Pakistan objected to it. How ready India is in terms of its reconnaissance capabilities,

07:50its infrastructure to be able to, you know, have better surveillance so that Pakistani fishermen

07:55or Pakistani boats or even Pakistani military does not infiltrate?

07:59Very good question. And, uh, I haven't been bringing historical context to this. If you remember 1965,

08:08the war of 65 did not start from Punjab or Kashmir. It actually started from here in Bhuj, right there

08:16on the, on the, on the, on the Bhuj coastline. Uh, 1971, again, later on, this was, this area was

08:26reasonably active after Kargil. This is the area where, if you remember the Atlantic aircraft,

08:32which is the surveillance aircraft, maritime surveillance aircraft of the Pakistan Navy

08:38was shot down by India with 16 people who died in that air crash. Uh, the aircraft fell on the

08:44Pakistani side and the Pakistanis always claimed that they had never penetrated Indian airspace.

08:50So this area has a history of tension. And, uh, we know that Pakistan, every time there is a,

08:56some major conflagration up north, always attempts to do something in this area, which is one of the

09:02reasons why India has been very, very circumspect, uh, about what's happening at the moment. Having

09:09said that, I have the fullest confidence that the Indian armed forces and jointly, not just the Indian

09:15army, but jointly the Navy, the army and the air force along with the BSF,

09:19have got their act together, have always had a certain focus on this particular area. The presence

09:26of Mr. Rajnath Singh for the Sera celebrations with the troops in Bhuj was a notional symbolic act

09:34to project and tell people across the border that we are ready. Our focus is very much in this area.

09:41Shastra Puja was performed there, if you remember. And, um, uh, quickly thereafter, immediately thereafter,

09:47the army chief has made a number of statements, the air force chief has made a number of statements,

09:52all this outlining primarily and focusing, projecting that India is in a state of readiness

09:58in terms of infrastructure, in terms of technology. India has upgraded itself very greatly in the last

10:0610 to 12 years. And, uh, today satellite surveillance over that particular area, a number of reconnaissance

10:14flights, maritime reconnaissance flights, other reconnaissance flights keep flying over these

10:19areas. Drone surveillance is the order of the day at the moment. So I, I don't think we have

10:26anything to really worry about. Uh, the government once is concerned, once the intelligence agencies have

10:32got their focus on it, I don't think we really need to worry too much. What is the resolution to this

10:39dispute? Because after 2016, when Pathan court happened, uh, the talks, the diplomatic interaction

10:46between the two countries absolutely was a stalled. Uh, how soon? Because now we have a renewed tension

10:52after operation Sindhu. Do you think that these diplomatic talks can resume in the future?

10:58Uh, if you recall, Sur Creek and Siachen were both termed as a low hanging fruit at one time, uh, by the

11:07Pakistanis and with the perception that these two could be resolved independent of the Kashmir issue,

11:14right? Uh, India to an extent also thought that we could resolve Sur Creek, not Siachen. Siachen is

11:20connected to Jamun Kashmir, but Sur Creek, we went along and we were in turn in, in, in a, in a stage of

11:27negotiations at that time. But thereafter, the incorrigible kind of, uh, approach and attitude that Pakistan

11:35has displayed, uh, in attempting to come to terms with India, uh, by peace with India, it seems that

11:43this issue now also has got related to the larger issues of all disputes with Pakistan. So I think

11:51talks and terrorism, as we say, cannot go together. This also has become a part of that issue

11:57and I don't foresee a resolution to it anytime in the future. The rise of nationalists forever in

12:03the country as it is, will prevent any kind of a resolution, which is not in favor of India. So I

12:08don't think the political climate within India, and I don't think the, the geopolitical climate within

12:14the subcontinent, uh, permits any resolution at this time. Right. Just last question, uh, general,

12:20you've already spoken about it in brief, but I want to pose this question again to you. The, the timing of

12:27the Sur Creek issue and how Pakistan has, you know, tried to ramp up its military infrastructure right

12:34after Operation Sindhu. Do you think it is all because of Trump's backing to Pakistan or Pakistan had this

12:40in mind earlier? Well, let me go a little beyond what you have just said. Uh, Pakistan's rising

12:47strategic confidence. Where does it come from? A couple of factors which you have to consider.

12:53When you look at the geopolitical angle, a lot of us are only focusing on the Trump factor,

12:59not realizing that there are many other connections also. Turkey, the support from Turkey,

13:04uh, the transactional support which it is getting from Iran today. Right. Uh, the pact it has just

13:11signed with Saudi Arabia. Right. And of course the Chinese support is a, is a universal support

13:17which continues around the clock, around the year, uh, all the time. So geopolitically,

13:21Pakistan seems to be on a diplomatic high at the moment and that always contributes to an Asian

13:27strategic confidence. The second aspect is, uh, the internal security situation in Pakistan

13:34is not too good. As you see what is happening in Pakistan, occupied Jammu and Kashmir at the moment,

13:39a lot of turbulence and, uh, last two years in particular now seems to have come to a head

13:44at this time. And this can turn very, very dangerous for Pakistan.

13:47Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, similarly, uh, the Tehrik Taliban problem is very much prevalent. The Balochistan

13:55issue refuses to go away. So internally, there is a fair degree of turbulence. The last part is

14:01psychologically, Pakistan, the Pakistan army seems to be in a self-delusionary kind of a mode

14:08where it has told, uh, it seems to sell to the people, to the government and everything.

14:141965, Pakistan army did not lose the war. 6th of September is celebrated as victory day.

14:21Right. Thereafter, this also claims that 1971, it never lost the war because

14:26Bangladesh was a different story. It was 1,000 kilometers, 1,000 miles away from the mainland

14:32Pakistan. And, um, it was completely isolated militarily. It had no resources while on the

14:38western front. See how well the Pakistan army performed. Now, these are the kind of stories.

14:43Pakistan is very good at narrative building and storytelling. And this is what it has been doing,

14:47uh, all along. It has always convinced the people that Pakistan will not lose tomorrow,

14:54if they start a war. And the last issue here is, recall the Kargil. Recall other incidents.

15:01Everywhere, Pakistan has irrationally triggered a conflict, never knowing where to take it and where

15:08to conclude it. It has always ended up with egg on his face. When you keep putting all this into a crucible,

15:15you realize that the situation today is such that India should be prepared.

15:21It, it, an irrational act could take place very much to sell it to the public, the Pakistani public,

15:29to the Pakistani media and the deep state and the political community there, uh, divert attention

15:36from the internal security problems and gather the, or test out the waters of the international

15:41kind of support, which it is gathering at the moment. So it's a, it's an, it's an awkward kind of a

15:46situation. And I think India is doing the right thing by sending out the right messages. What we

15:52are doing at the moment when talking about Operation Sindhu 2.0 is something which we have not done in

15:57the past. That is narrative building. Telling the other side, we are prepared. We are fully prepared.

16:03Try it and test us if you wish. Right. So I think the bottom line is that Pakistan will continue to be a

16:10rogue nation on the offensive, but India will be strategically on the defensive side and continue

16:16to have a better surveillance and infrastructure in the South Creek region. Well, on that note,

16:20General, thank you so much for taking out the time and speaking with Asianate News.

16:24Uh, your perspective matters a lot and, uh, hope to connect with you soon.

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