What Will the Foreign Policy of Japan's Likely Next PM Look Like?

TaiwanPlus News

Takaichi Sanae is likely to become the first woman to serve as Japan's prime minister. Already, think tanks and analysts are wondering what her foreign policy -- including her views on Taiwan -- might look like.

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00:00Takaichi Sanae, Japan's self-declared Iron Lady, is on the way to the political top.

00:08Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party declared her its next leader on Saturday.

00:12And that means on October 15, she will likely become the first woman to serve as Japan's

00:17Prime Minister.

00:19She is well-known for conservative viewpoints when it comes to domestic policy, but analysts

00:23are also looking at how her foreign policy might shape up, especially as, in her own

00:28words, Japan's security situation has grown more complex in recent years, with Russia,

00:32North Korea, and China all ramping up military activity nearby.

00:37This raises the question, what will be her relationship with the United States in the

00:41second Trump era?

00:43The U.S. plays a big role in Japan's security, but Japan is among the many countries that

00:47have friction with the U.S. over Trump's tariff policies.

00:51Here's what Takaichi says.

00:53If, in practice, something was to arise that goes against Japan's national interest, I

01:01believe we should clearly state that within the framework of the Japan-U.S. talks.

01:07At the moment, we do not plan to overturn what has been agreed with the U.S.

01:11But it's hard to know if a shared right-wing outlook between Takaichi and Trump will keep

01:16ties even-keeled.

01:17Obviously, they share quite a nationalistic agenda.

01:21They've both said things that are pretty hostile towards the foreign residents and population

01:27of their respective countries.

01:28They're both people who have been on record questioning the right of the media to hold

01:33politicians accountable and to scrutinise political leaders.

01:38So that seems like something that they ought to know, things that they have in common.

01:41But on the other hand, she's talking about wanting to revisit the deal that was done over

01:45tariffs to reduce the amount that Japan has promised to invest in the United States.

01:50And she's also a woman over the age of 40, which is not a demographic that Donald Trump

01:55tends to do very well with.

01:57And how will she manage ties with her neighbors, especially China and the two Koreas, countries

02:02that still feel bitterness over past Japanese occupation?

02:05Will her strident nationalism create strain in the region?

02:08Sniho visits, for example, to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which is the war memorial in

02:15Japan where a number of war criminals are also interred.

02:18This is going to make relations with China, South Korea, other countries that are occupied

02:23by Japan more difficult.

02:25But Takaichi sees things differently.

02:27Yasukuni Shrine is the main facility for honoring the spirits of soldiers dead in war and a shrine

02:35dedicated to peace.

02:37As for how we honor the disease and how we pray for peace, these are matters we will judge

02:43appropriately at the right time.

02:46This is absolutely not something that should be turned into a diplomatic issue.

02:52Then there's the issue of China's threat to invade Taiwan.

02:55Takaichi's mentor, the late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, was a notable supporter of Taiwan,

03:00once saying, a threat to Taiwan is a threat to Japan.

03:04On this front, she's made her stance explicit, telling the Hudson Institute she wants dialogue

03:09with Chinese leaders, that Taiwan's status quo shouldn't be changed through force, and

03:14that issues of Taiwan need to be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

03:19How big an impact Takaichi's policies will have depends much on how long she stays in office.

03:25Her role model, Britain's Margaret Thatcher, was Prime Minister for over a decade.

03:29But with the exception of Abe Shinzo, Japanese Prime Ministers have tended to come and go

03:34in recent years, in what's sometimes called a revolving door.

03:38Even before she's confirmed Prime Minister though, think tanks and analysts are still grappling

03:43with what effect she might have on Japan and its place in the world.

03:47Alex Chen and John Van Trieste for Taiwan Plus.

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