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On this week’s Chakravyuh podcast, the focus is on Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir's White House visit with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. The visit occurs as India-US relations face tensions over tariffs, H-1B visas, and pharmaceuticals.
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00:00Pakistan's radical Islamist army chief Aasem Munir is back in the White House and this time
00:06Pakistan's prime minister Shabash Sharif was in tow. They've met the American president
00:12at a time when India-US relations are barely trying to come back on an even keel if at all.
00:22Tensions over tariffs remain, H-1B visas and pharmaceuticals are additional tensions that
00:29are creeping into this relationship. And to discuss the road ahead with me is Ambassador
00:37Ajay Visaria, India's former high commissioner to Pakistan and Canada. He's the author of
00:44Anger Management and someone who follows these geopolitical developments very closely.
00:50Ambassador, welcome on the Chakravue podcast.
00:52Thanks, Gaurav. Great to be here on this platform.
00:55Ambassador, what's your reading of Aasem Munir being back in the White House, this time
01:01with Shabash Sharif?
01:02Well, I think this dynamic of the Pakistan-US relationship is something that has been continuing
01:11through the year and has taken on a special momentum with this particular White House.
01:19If you look back at the back story of Pakistan-US relations, it's a long story, right? From the 1950s,
01:29the Pakistan-US relationship has been going up and down. And the sense in both countries is that both have
01:40frequently been disappointed by the nature of the relationship and by the expectations. Because the
01:46expectations are disbalanced. Pakistan is in bed in this relationship because it dreams of a situation
01:54where the U.S. assists it in its relationship with India, in its revisionist ambition of getting a hold
02:03on Kashmir and so on. Whereas the U.S. uses Pakistan for a set of different transactions. So it used it for
02:11the Cold War to push back communism at one point, for the Afghan war at another point. And now with
02:18this White House for a set of transactions. So I think that is the context in which I would see it.
02:24You had, as you said, Pakistan's army chief leading this process. And he met him one-on-one, met with Trump
02:34one-on-one earlier, and then got along the prime minister to give his army some legitimacy,
02:41because there was a great deal of criticism that, you know, this is a naked army regime. It isn't even
02:48pretending to be a civilian regime, including within Pakistan. And that is the reason why he had to have
02:54this facade of getting the prime minister. But it's quite clear what the deals on the table are.
03:03They've been talked about, and they're fairly clear what kind of transactions are on the table.
03:08Sir, what is your reading of these deals? And why has Trump just turned around in 2018?
03:16On the 1st of January, Donald Trump accused Pakistan of gobbling $33 billion and being responsible
03:24for the death of American lives and cheating America. And now he's saying Aasem Manir is a great
03:30guy. And they talk about deals. Explain these deals to us, sir.
03:34Well, Trump calls everyone a great guy. So that isn't something that one should really be flattered
03:40by. But, you know, Trump 1.0 was disappointed by Pakistan. So Trump 2.0 is not yet disappointed by
03:50Pakistan. When Trump came in early in his last tenure on, as you said, on 1st January 2018,
03:56he had tweeted. And he had even said that all we get from Pakistan is lies and deceit. And
04:03we've given them $33 billion over the previous 15 years. And we haven't got anything out of
04:09it and no more. And that is the time he wanted to put pressure. But he again changed his mind
04:15and got Imran Khan to the White House and talked to him. So now what Trump is trying to do is that he
04:24is has a set of transactions on the table, which the Pakistani system has managed to reach him
04:32through various means, which have been talked about quite openly in the media, you know, going
04:39through Trump's family and so on. But what they have now is a main deal, which is apparently
04:46on crypto. So that benefits a lot of people close to Trump. And this deal has been promised.
04:54But apart from that, there is also talk of a critical minerals deal, which is something
04:59which has been, again, signed in the recent past. And something about extraction of oil
05:06and petroleum in Pakistan.
05:08You've served in Pakistan. Do they have oil? Because so many times in the past, there have
05:13been these toll claims about oil in Pakistan and American companies, including, I believe,
05:19companies from Canada and America, Total, and so many other companies came, they searched for
05:24an Exxon and they found nothing. Absolutely. So these claims have been around, periodically
05:31banded about and periodically dismissed. But, you know, the thing about petroleum and oil
05:38exploration is that it takes a while. So, you know, you can sign a deal and maybe in a decade,
05:44something comes out of it. So let's not dismiss it. It's completely baseless. There is a possibility
05:50there could be some exploration, but there is nothing imminent. There is no imminent great
05:55oil well that Pakistan has to offer. So I think we had these deals of cryptocurrency, critical
06:05minerals, oil, and then also a counter-terrorism piece. So this is where CENTCOM, the US Central
06:15Command, has a lot of use for Pakistan and wants to keep using Pakistan in its counter-terrorism operations.
06:22Pakistan uses terrorists as currency, periodically handing over terrorists to the United States
06:30and getting some brownie points for it. There is also this attempt at using, you know, offering strategic location,
06:42which is the bases. You know, there was a lot of talk during Op Sindur and before that, that Pakistan
06:51had given secret basing rights to the United States. You would recall there was a time when a terrorist
06:58was attacked by a US drone in Kabul and the rumor was that it had operated from a base within Pakistan.
07:07So there are some non-disclosed perhaps basing rights. And now there is a serious conversation
07:13which the US is trying to have with the Taliban about reclaiming the Bagram base. So this strategic
07:21factor of strategic location is also added to the mix. And of course there was this factor of the US going
07:30or the Pakistan nominating Trump for the Nobel Prize, which again was a sweetener in the deal.
07:37So I think a series of transactions is what the Pakistanis are promising. And this is what is attractive
07:47to the current administration.
07:49Will Pakistan's other master, China, be happy about it or will China frown upon this or will China feel let down?
07:59Well, I would say China has given Pakistan the permission and the space to do this diplomacy.
08:07Pakistan would not be doing this given its abject dependence on the Chinese at this point of time,
08:16you know, to do anything that the Chinese object to. So if you step back and look at Pakistan's foreign policy,
08:25it is marked by a central obsession about India and a revisionism about Kashmir and wanting to have Kashmir,
08:35Kashmir banega Pakistan, Kashmir as Shahi Ragh and so on. But to that, I think what Pakistan has had is three global godfathers.
08:48You know, from the 50s it was the United States, from the 60s it was China, from the 70s it was Saudi Arabia.
08:57And Pakistan tries to remain relevant to each one of these in different ways.
09:03You know, offering for instance to the Saudis a lot of military support and to be part of the military counter-terrorism,
09:13Islamic alliance and so on. And also, you know, to the Chinese of course, Pakistan has a relationship with the Chinese,
09:25a relationship of abject dependence. So what you started off by a strategic alliance that your enemy's enemy is my friend,
09:35over a period of time became a relationship of abject economic dependence and then abject military dependence.
09:42Pakistan really hasn't had a nuclear program. It was a Chinese nuclear program that became Pakistani.
09:49It didn't have a military program. It was the Chinese military equipment that worked.
09:54And now, this summer, we saw, and what you've been reporting about so well, the collusive battlefield
10:02and the live lab that Pakistan provided for the Chinese.
10:07So I think Pakistan is not about to expend the capital in that relationship to build either of these, the U.S. or Saudi relationships.
10:18It will have had a collusive approach with China and taken permission for its reach out to both these countries.
10:28But wouldn't it be detrimental to Chinese interests if America were to succeed, let's say, in Balochistan,
10:35where China did not succeed or the China-Pakistan economic corridor collapsed?
10:39Or would China not be worried with Americans so close?
10:43They want the Bagram airbase, and Trump says it is to keep an eye on China, and the Chinese nukes are not far away to that effect, and also be entrenched in Pakistan?
10:53Absolutely.
10:54And it's a great question to ask.
10:56And I think the obvious answer is the Chinese and Pakistanis are together playing the Americans.
11:03So this game cannot be played by the Pakistanis alone by doing what it did in the past,
11:09is that, you know, balance China and Pakistan or trick both of them and play one against the other.
11:17This is the Chinese and the Pakistanis playing.
11:21Because I'm sure, internally, China has made clear several red lines to Pakistan.
11:27So beyond a point, it's not that the Americans will join in the CPEC.
11:32But they would have asked the Pakistanis to get the Americans to explore all these options.
11:39And I think we should really see it as a collusive situation rather than Pakistan using its agency in getting the United States to play.
11:49Would this not indicate that Pakistan's diplomacy works better?
11:54I mean, there are so many godfathers.
11:56They're getting money and resources from China, from Saudi Arabia.
12:01And I'll talk about that military pact with Saudi Arabia separately, sir.
12:04But I want to understand about this, you know, three godfathers, America, Saudi Arabia and China.
12:11Well, you know, it is at one level, tactically a good policy, right?
12:18But I would argue that strategically and in the long term, it is bad policy.
12:23Because one or the other of these partners will see through this game.
12:28At some point, the United States might see through this game and see how much of a treacherous or unreliable partner Pakistan can be.
12:39So I think this kind of relationship will not continue endlessly because it is based on certain transactionalism.
12:49But apart from the fact that, you know, Pakistan is playing these games to punch above its weight and get certain economic benefits,
13:00the problem will remain that Pakistan's central economic story is a sad one.
13:06There is no revival of the economy.
13:09There is, despite the IMF loan, the economic story continues to be a very poor one, very fraught one, very dangerous one with no reform worth the name.
13:20So I think the fact that the economy is not doing well, you cannot by a series of transactions change the game.
13:30So they'll remain on Dole, like it's Zakatistan, as you know, we sometimes say, they live on Zakat and you cannot become a big power.
13:41But they have become a power just living on Dole, even if they get all the money and weapons just to counter India.
13:48But that strategy has worked well for them so far.
13:51Your reading of this military pact with Saudi Arabia, the attack on one is attack on the other.
13:57Right. So, you know, before that, on the point you're making, that Pakistan's foreign policy is based upon leveraging its strategic location.
14:07This has been talked about, written about quite a bit, that you use your strategic location to leverage, you know, your position
14:17and hope that the world monetizes it, gives you certain economic benefits.
14:23Now, after the U.S. had withdrawn on 15th August 2021 from Afghanistan, the feeling was that Pakistan's strategic use in terms of its location for the U.S. had gone down.
14:38But what Pakistan is trying to do is maneuver itself back into that space, use its army and use its location in, again, becoming sort of relevant to all of these partners.
14:52And once that relevance declines, either because they see the writing on the wall or otherwise, you know, Pakistan's relevance, Pakistan will have a tough time keeping that relationship well nourished.
15:07But now, coming to your question about the Saudi deal, again, that came as a bit of a surprise, the nature of the agreement, which had a, you know, NATO Article 5 kind of clause.
15:22But it should not have surprised a lot of watchers of the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, because it is a long-standing relationship.
15:29And you know that one of the predecessor army chiefs, Raheem Sharif, had, after retirement, headed the IMCTCs, the so-called Islamic Military Coalition.
15:44And therefore, it has been a relationship that has been fairly well established and deep.
15:53But I think the immediate trigger was the U.S. and Israel behavior in West Asia, you know, in Qatar, specifically.
16:05So what we have is a situation where we had a long-standing West Asian security order, which has been challenged by Iran and now challenged also by Israel by bombing Qatar, a country which hosts a large number of U.S. troops.
16:30So Qatar, which was also attacked symbolically by Iran, will have the feeling that, you know, there is no one to defend it, or the security umbrella of the United States is not automatically available at a time that the U.S. is so volatile.
16:49Therefore, what Qatar would like to do is do some old-fashioned signaling to Israel and to the United States and set up some kind of deterrence against U.S. behavior and Israeli action.
17:10And you do that by, you know, reviving this whole idea that used to be prevalent but has not for a while of Pakistan holding the Islamic bomb.
17:21And if you see Pakistani writing and conversations in their strategic community, right now they're talking and boasting very openly about providing the nuclear umbrella in West Asia and becoming a net security provider in West Asia.
17:38You know, it's completely illegal according to every doctrine and every global agreement that they've come into.
17:45But the signal has been sent.
17:48And it is really should be seen as a signal that the Saudis sent to both Israel and to the U.S. that they have alternative, you know, sources of security available if the U.S. cover is not so.
18:05But in any situation, in any scenario, and especially at a time when Israel and Saudi Arabia were trying to come closer, the Americans were trying to get them closer to be closed.
18:18Do you see Pakistan, in case Israel were to attack Saudi Arabia, will Pakistan fight that war or in case India were to do Sindhu 2.0, will Saudi Arabia militarily come to Pakistan's rescue in any scenario?
18:32You know, I would rule out both these scenarios.
18:36Now, Pakistan will symbolically be with Saudi Arabia.
18:42But Saudi Arabia coming into any India-Pakistan situation, allowing an emboldened Pakistan to have another ally, that is a situation we should rule out.
18:55Because I don't think in any circumstance it will happen, and what we had post this is, I think, assurances from Saudi Arabia to India that it was not about you.
19:07And I'll give you a historical parallel here.
19:10In 1959, Pakistan signed an agreement, Ayub Khan then signed an agreement with the United States, which had security clauses.
19:22And when 1965 came, the war, the Pakistanis were very upset because the U.S. passed laws saying we will stop arms shipments to both India and Pakistan.
19:34And it was the first example in the Pakistani writing of U.S. perfidy that, you know, we expected them to come to our rescue, but they didn't.
19:44And the U.S. said, look, the agreement was very clear.
19:47It was about countering communism, the communist challenge.
19:52It was not about India.
19:54So, this is exactly what the Saudis are saying, at least privately now and perhaps publicly at some point, that this is about giving, getting a security guarantee of some kind against Israeli behavior.
20:09This is not about India.
20:11What is your reading of the additional 25% tariffs?
20:16Do we see a deal happen, especially now that pharmaceuticals, you know, taxing pharmaceuticals is also being brought in?
20:24H-1B visas, $100,000 fee is being talked about.
20:29And the sanctions exemption that we had on Chabahar port, that's suddenly been revoked.
20:35Are these negotiation tools or is this relationship now headed downhill as long as Trump's president?
20:41Well, I would look at it a little differently.
20:44I think there is an understanding even in Trump's ecosystem and particularly his ecosystem that the India relationship is important.
20:54What we have is a situation this year of an early Indian attempt to go and deal with Trump when Modi went there in February.
21:05And then a relationship, a negotiation process building up.
21:12You know, of the three options we had, negotiate or retaliate or ignore, India chose negotiate.
21:19And I think it was a good idea to negotiate with the Trump White House.
21:24And we saw a dip in August with the two tariffs coming, 25% and 25%.
21:32And now, again, we are seeing a little bit of a change in September, but some volatility up and down.
21:39So I would frame it as a long negotiation for a deal on trade, which went through five, six rounds, but interrupted by two geopolitical accidents.
21:55The first accident was, let's say, May, the India-Pakistan conflict.
22:02And there in the fog of war, the India-US relationship took a dip because India naturally did not like Trump claiming the credit.
22:13In retrospect, we could have handled it a little differently.
22:16We could have said Pakistan folded because of our pressure and because of military pressure.
22:23But the U.S. first played a helpful role in leaning on Pakistan to stop the war, which essentially is what they did and they did in the past.
22:32Which is the truth.
22:34Which is the truth.
22:35But, you know, as you have a fog of war for the military, you have a fog of war for diplomacy.
22:40So a lot of things happen and, you know, then it's hard to reverse that position.
22:46But the point I would make is that you were negotiating a deal.
22:52You had an unfortunate India-Pakistan conflict.
22:55And then you had the other accident of the Alaska process faltering and failing,
23:01which means Trump wanted to come into power and stop the Ukraine war, which, as he keeps saying, was, he thought, the easiest war.
23:08But he couldn't do it.
23:09So that pressure which they had to put as pressure on Russia got loaded onto this India-Pakistan deal as the next 25%.
23:23So do you see more headwinds in this relationship?
23:26Or after this visit, do you see, you know, perhaps attempting to reach some kind of a deal?
23:33And when some say that there are portions in agriculture or portions in dairy where you can give America some access,
23:40for example, high-end cheese, you know, that doesn't impact us.
23:45Or some part of the agriculture which does not impact us.
23:48Do you think that's doable?
23:49Or once they have their foot in the door, they'll keep pushing for us to open the door wider?
23:54No, I think we can get a deal and we should get a deal in the next couple of months.
24:01I think what we have after multiple rounds is a deal where India, from all accounts, went further than it ever has with other countries in terms of the market access it gave.
24:14And as you're saying, there are creative ways out because while the agri-sector is a no-go area, there are niches within it where you can go.
24:25For instance, high-end cheese. And in the dairy sector. In the agri-sector, you can talk of cranberries and stuff that India doesn't produce, fruit, which – and you don't have to get into large-scale imports of wheat and maize and corn and so on.
24:44So, I think there we can find creative solutions. But the important thing is this next 25% tariff because of Russia has to go.
24:56And that is part of the conversation that can there be a way of putting that on hold.
25:03Trump is already trying something deeper.
25:06You know, he is saying that EU and NATO should also impose the sanctions to put pressure on Russia.
25:13So, right now he is on the phase of putting pressure on Russia. But if we have a Russia deal or the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, then automatically this pressure becomes less.
25:25So, we remain inside this Chakra view. In your view, will we be able to emerge victorious like Arjun or the challenges lie ahead?
25:34Absolutely. Especially on the tariff paths.
25:36So, it is a Chakra view. There are multiple layers of complication. But the core is negotiate a good trade deal. Keep calm and negotiating that and get to that trade deal.
25:48The other layers will peel off, which is the Russia layer, which is on its own logic, and the pharma and software stuff, which has its own logic.
26:01So, let's not conflate them. Let's stick to the goal of our own central objective.
26:08You know, Arjun looking at the target and shooting at it. And then we will get further.
26:14And I would think that there is a possibility if we host the Quad Summit in the next three months, you could have Trump in India.
26:22Or what I am hearing, you could have J.D. Vance in India instead of Trump.
26:27So, I think we should do what we are doing. Keep calm and negotiate. Look at all these additional factors, deal with them separately, but not conflate all of them.
26:40It's not just one mix. It's a sense of a lot of things coming together. But the core issue is that we need to negotiate a trade deal and continue doing so.
26:52I will let that be the last word on this part of the show on Check Review for your very, very powerful thoughts.
26:59And you've served in Pakistan. You know the lay of the land and your long experience in diplomacy for joining us and sharing your thoughts with us.
27:07Ambassador Ajay Visariya, many thanks.
27:09Thanks, Gaurav. Great to be here.
27:11Thank you, sir. That is all that I have for you on this edition of Check Review. Lots more coming up. Keep watching India today.
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