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Google just placed a big bet on Cipher Mining (CIFR) — a major Bitcoin mining company. 🚨 This move could signal massive confidence in crypto mining stocks and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. But the real question is: should retail investors follow Google’s lead and buy CIFR shares too?

In this video, we’ll break down exactly why Google is betting on Cipher Mining stock (CIFR), what makes this mining company stand out, and whether it’s a smart investment heading into the next Bitcoin halving cycle. We’ll cover CIFR fundamentals, crypto mining economics, and Bitcoin’s role in shaping mining profitability.

👉 Do you think CIFR is a buy right now — or is Bitcoin itself the better play? Drop your thoughts in the comments below!

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Transcript
00:00okay let's dig into this there's this uh really big headline making waves google is backing
00:11cipher mining it involves a massive ai and a high performance computing hpc deal and google's
00:19getting a stake right but what does that actually mean you know for crypto investors or even just
00:25people watching the space what's the real story here yeah it's it's fascinating because this
00:29isn't just um like a standard partnership announcement it feels bigger it's a real
00:33convergence you know you've got big tech google obviously a giant making a serious like capital
00:39backed move into physical infrastructure stuff that was historically just the domain of crypto miners
00:44so our goal today really is to unpack this this emerging hybrid model how these facilities
00:49originally built maybe just for bitcoin mining efficiency are now becoming these dual purpose
00:54hubs for well high demand ai infrastructure that hybrid idea that's the key isn't it it feels like
01:00a fundamental shift moving away from i guess the sometimes boom and bust cycle of just mining crypto
01:06towards being well a crucial piece of the global compute infrastructure yeah you know powering ai and
01:14everything else it's a very different kind of investment story it absolutely is and look before
01:19we get too deep into the numbers and the implications i think it's really important to set the context right
01:23up front for you listening okay while cypher mining you know comes from that pure play bitcoin mining
01:30background this conversation it's fundamentally about equities it's about infrastructure right not
01:36directly about buying bitcoin or other tokens exactly we're talking about a company's stock it's physical
01:41assets it's long-term contracts and with that comes you know major financial risks regulatory hurdles
01:48and maybe the biggest one execution risk execution risk building out this kind of large-scale
01:53infrastructure especially over a decade it's incredibly complex high capital spending so the
01:59potential rewards are definitely there but they really depend on them delivering almost perfectly got
02:04it so it's a bet on building things on contracts not just the price of bitcoin going up a
02:10sophisticated play okay so let's jump into the core details then what's the actual structure of this deal
02:16between cypher fluid stack and of course google okay so the heart of it is this really substantial
02:22uh 10-year co-location agreement cypher signed this with fluid stack fluid stack they're an ai cloud
02:29platform yeah exactly they kind of act as an intermediary providing ai cloud services and the length
02:3510 years that signals a serious long-term commitment to hosting this high performance computing stuff
02:41fluid stack is basically the main tenant here they'll use this capacity for their clients who
02:46need you know intense gpu compute power right okay and this is where google steps in directly financially
02:52it's not just a thumbs up they're actually putting money behind it or guaranteeing it that's the crucial
02:57part google is essentially guaranteeing or providing critical support for a really significant portion of
03:03the financing needed to get this capacity built out and running how significant are we talking well the
03:08numbers floating around suggest google support could back up to uh 1.4 billion dollars wow 1.4 billion
03:15dollars for a company that started in crypto mining that's huge it's enormous it gives cypher incredible
03:21leverage credibility it really de-risks the capital spending for them in a big way okay so the financing
03:27is largely covered or guaranteed what's in it for google why take on that kind of liability or offer that
03:34backing well two main things really first potentially guaranteed access to that compute capacity themselves
03:40if they need it later on think of it as securing future supply uh-huh makes sense in the current ai race
03:46exactly and second they get equity upside in return for this financial and strategic backing google gets
03:53the right to acquire about 5.4 percent of cypher and they get this through warrants warrants okay let's
03:58quickly untack that because that's different from just buying stock now right it's an option correct it's
04:02important to understand warrants give google the right but not the obligation to buy cypher stock at
04:08a set price in the future so they benefit if cypher does well and the stock goes up precisely it aligns
04:14google's interests with the long-term success of this whole infrastructure project if cypher executes
04:20well builds this out becomes profitable and the stock price rises google can exercise those warrants and
04:26profit and for existing shareholders that means potential dilution down the line yes that's the trade-off
04:32if the warrants get exercised more shares are created which can dilute existing holdings but you
04:38know the argument is that securing a partner like google and that level of financial backing is worth
04:44that potential future dilution it basically confirms google is invested in the outcome not just a customer
04:50they're like a shareholder and waiting right that equity piece definitely shows skin in the game
04:54yeah okay let's walk scale 10 years up to 1.4 billion dollars backing what does that translate to
05:00physically how much computing capacity are we actually talking about so the deal as it stands
05:05committed right now covers 168 megawatts that's mw of high density computing capacity 168 megawatts yeah
05:11and this will be housed specifically at cypher's big site barber lake to give you a sense of scale 168
05:17milliw is well it's roughly the power consumption of a small city all focused on running complex ai calculations
05:24that's already massive but i think i saw the contract allows for scaling it's not capped at 168 mil w
05:30that's right and that's key to the long-term picture while 168 mil w is the starting block
05:36the agreement is specifically structured to allow for expansion as ai demand keeps growing exactly as ai
05:43compute needs continue to well explode really the plan clearly anticipates needing more capacity down the
05:50line so cypher can potentially build out more assuming they can get the financing and the power
05:54lined up it really sounds like cypher is fundamentally changing who they are they started as you know a
06:00fairly straightforward bitcoin mire maybe operating data centers how does this deal force them to change
06:06their business model it forces a really aggressive pivot they're moving from what was basically a single
06:10revenue stream model tied almost entirely to bitcoin's price and their mining hash rate commodity based
06:17yeah very commodity based very volatile they're shifting to a hybrid model aiming for more resilience
06:23they're combining their bitcoin mining which is optimized for you know sometimes cheaper interruptible
06:28power right with this high margin always on ai and hpc hosting which absolutely requires stable
06:35uninterruptible power so they need two different kinds of power arrangements almost maximizing their grid
06:41connection and land use that's a good way to put it and to actually deliver on this we're seeing
06:46cypher move really fast to scale up and upgrade their sites especially the black pearl site expansion
06:52and that expansion isn't just about adding more bitcoin miner no not at all it's about fundamentally
06:57upgrading the facilities for hpc that means things like implementing mandatory liquid cooling because
07:03ai gpus run incredibly hot much hotter than bitcoin asics way hotter it also means enhanced networking like
07:12high capacity fiber for super low latency between all those gpus and installing specialized high density
07:18server racks the capital expenditure the capex is huge but it's absolutely necessary to service that
07:24fluid stack contract and meet google's standards so the infrastructure they built for mining which could
07:30handle power fluctuations is now being rapidly retrofitted or built alongside infrastructure for the
07:37incredibly demanding always on world of ai that's the pivot that's the pivot in a nutshell yeah okay
07:42let's pull back and look at the bigger picture here when a tech giant like google makes a move like this
07:47backing a company rooted in crypto mining well the market definitely notices what does this signal
07:53more broadly about this convergence of big tech and crypto infrastructure i think google's involvement is
07:59probably the clearest signal we've had so far that the major tech players they don't see crypto
08:03infrastructure as this weird niche or overly risky thing anymore they now see real tangible long-term
08:11value in securing access to this kind of confute capacity what's happening is the lines are blurring
08:17the boundaries between say traditional cloud or ai data centers and crypto mining facilities they're getting
08:25fuzzy why is that what's the common element because the core scarce resources are actually quite similar
08:30you need reliable large-scale power ideally optimized for cost you need huge plots of land often in
08:38specific locations and you need the ability to build out and deploy capacity relatively quickly these are
08:44things the crypto mining industry frankly got pretty good at that makes a lot of sense it sounds a bit
08:48like um historical parallels in tech like back in the early internet days telcos or cloud providers would
08:54invest heavily in things like dark fiber networks or building massive data centers exactly carrier
08:59neutral facilities right just to guarantee they had the capacity they needed and could control their own
09:03supply chain this feels like the modern version of that but focused on facilities optimized for just raw
09:09computational power it's a really good analogy and there's maybe an added layer of competition now in the
09:15current ai arms race securing this kind of power efficient compute capacity before your rivals do that's a significant
09:23strategic advantage so for google locking this up even indirectly through cypher is a competitive move absolutely it builds a moat and that ties directly into
09:33the second big implication for cypher itself revenue diversification and hopefully stability that seems like the holy grail for miners right pure mining is just so exposed your revenue is
09:43your revenue is directly tied to bitcoin's price if bitcoin crashes the revenue crashes overnight exactly for a pure miner a long crypto winter a bear market can be
09:53absolutely brutal it can push highly profitable operations towards insolvency very quickly so adding this ai and hpc hosting with these long 10 year contracts that's the buffer that's the
10:05strategic goal adding these multi-year often fixed rate hosting contracts provides that buffer it moves cypher towards more stable predictable recurring revenue streams they shift from being just a commodity
10:15producer or miner to also being a service provider hosting and the so what for you listening is huge here if cypher pulls this off if they execute well those predictable hosting revenues could really smooth out their financial performance
10:31especially during those inevitable downturns in the crypto market that should in theory make them a much more attractive investment particularly for
10:39institutional investors who like infrastructure like returns and that potential stability it gets a massive boost from the third big implication
10:50the signaling effect and the institutional credibility that comes with google's backing right the google stamp of approval it's almost priceless
10:58isn't it when a company like google effectively says we've done our homework we've vetted this operation and
11:02we're willing to put serious financial backing behind it that confers immense legitimacy and it's not just
11:08legitimacy for cypher it validates the whole underlying asset class these large-scale power optimized data centers
11:15and the teams that run them and that kind of validation attracts the serious money doesn't it the institutional
11:19capital the big lenders other potential partners they all see google's involvement absolutely it significantly
11:26lowers cypher's perceived risk and that in turn makes it easier for them to negotiate really
11:33favorable deals on things like power purchase agreements ppas which are critical for mining and hosting
11:40better terms on infrastructure maybe future contracts exactly and we've actually seen this play out before
11:45on a smaller scale remember when softbank invested they bought about 50 million dollars in shares
11:51for data center development oh yeah i remember that the stock rallied pretty hard on that news it did
11:56just on the confidence boost from a major name investing now the google deal it carries way more
12:01financial weight much more strategic importance the market gravity is just different so okay we're not
12:06just talking about a potentially healthier balance sheet we're seeing a real shift in the competitive
12:11landscape cypher is actively trying to redefine itself moving beyond just being labeled a bitcoin miner yes
12:19absolutely yeah they're explicitly positioning themselves now as a data and compute infrastructure
12:24player first oh and by the way they also happen to run a very efficient mining operation alongside that
12:29that makes sense and crucially this pivot it's almost becoming table stakes it's not unique to cypher
12:36we're seeing other big miners like riot platforms iris energy they're making similar moves
12:43trying to capture some of this massive demand for ai compute so the competition the arms race in this
12:49sector is changing focus it's not just about who has the most hash power per watt anymore that's the
12:54core strategic shift yeah that metric still matters for the mining side of course but the new competitive
13:00battleground it's about infrastructure adaptability it's about having superior cooling systems specifically
13:07liquid cooling which is basically essential for these dense ai gpu clusters that throw off way more heat than asics
13:14right you can't just use fans for those not effectively at scale no yeah it's also about having top tier network
13:19connections super low latency and maybe most importantly it's about securing huge amounts of reliable power at the
13:26absolute lowest possible cost so for investors the analysis changes it's less about predicting the price of bitcoin and
13:32much more about betting on their ability to deploy this infrastructure efficiently manage capital well
13:38and maintain high operational uptime it's an infrastructure game now okay we've painted a pretty
13:44compelling picture of the potential upside here this 10-year vision google's backing it sounds great but
13:50you know this is still a really high stakes game big money complex construction so let's bring in some
13:57realism what are the major risks what could actually derail this whole strategy let's start with the
14:02obvious one they can't fully escape bitcoin price yeah you have to acknowledge that even with these
14:07new potentially stable ai revenue streams coming online a really deep prolonged crypto winter that
14:13could still put serious pressure on their overall missions because the mining part is still a big chunk
14:18of their operation presumably exactly the profitability of that legacy mining business is still highly
14:23sensitive to the value of bitcoin and when btc tanks miners often face a tough choice do they sell the
14:29bitcoin they just mind maybe at low prices just to cover their operating costs or debt payments
14:35which eats into their reserves and future potential right it depletes their treasury
14:39and limits their flexibility for future growth or handling unexpected issues
14:43and we've actually seen the market react pretty strongly to just hiccups in their mining output
14:48haven't we i think cypher's stock dropped what like 17 earlier this year yeah that was back in march
14:53reduced bitcoin production linked to power curtailment basically the grid operator asking them to power
15:00down sometimes so if external things like power availability can hit the mining side that hard
15:05the ai side really needs to perform flawlessly just to balance things out that leads us right into
15:11probably the biggest single risk factor execution and the timelines involved building out or converting
15:18facilities for hpc hosting it's incredibly complex it requires a totally different skill set and
15:23operational discipline than just running bitcoin miners can you maybe elaborate on that difference
15:27like what makes hpc hosting so much harder well think about the supply chain first for mining you
15:32need specialized asics okay they're specialized but they're established manufacturers for ai you need
15:38thousands upon thousands of high-end gpus which are like gold dust right now everybody wants them
15:43exactly there's a global shortage intense competition for google microsoft amazon everyone so cypher has to
15:50actually get their hands on these gpus reliably and on schedule to fill that 168 milli wu that's a huge
15:59logistical challenge okay supply chain is one thing what about the build out itself then there's the
16:03physical infrastructure we mentioned liquid cooling that's expensive and complex to implement at scale
16:09power stability is critical ai chips are much more sensitive to power fluctuations than asics any delays in
16:16construction or cost overruns which are common in big projects could seriously damage the investment
16:22case especially since the market is probably expecting them to deploy this capacity pretty quickly
16:27so the kpis you have to watch are ruthless uptime power stability hitting those utilization targets on time
16:34and beyond the technical challenges of building there's always the external stuff right like
16:37regulations and environmental concerns always crypto mining and big data centers already get a lot of
16:43scrutiny over energy consumption carbon emissions impact on the local grid cypher knows how to deal with that
16:49but ai hosting adds another layer it can yeah you start dealing with potentially sensitive client data being
16:56processed that brings in stricter regulations around data sovereignty privacy laws like gdpr or
17:02ccpa depending on the client and data and general compliance within the specific state or country they're operating in
17:09that might mean higher security standards more legal overhead and all this building all these upgrades
17:15it costs money even with google's backing helping with financing cypher still needs to fund a lot of
17:20this themselves right which brings up capital structure risks maybe dilution that's a really critical point for
17:26anyone looking at the stock yeah yes even with the guarantees cypher will almost certainly need to raise
17:31more capital probably through debt or issuing more equity right to fund this huge expansion the most obvious
17:37sign of this was that 1.1 billion dollar convertible note they issued right the convertible note can
17:41you quickly explain why companies use those and what the risks are sure a convertible note starts out as
17:47debt cypher has to pay interest on it but the key thing is it can convert into company stock later
17:54usually if the stock price hits a certain level or by a certain date so it's debt now potentially stock
18:01later exactly growing companies like this often use them because it delays the immediate dilution you'd get
18:06from just issuing stock right away it gives them the capital now but it means they're taking on a lot
18:12of debt a lot of leverage and the risks two main ones first the debt itself if interest rates are high
18:19the payments can be substantial if they take on too much debt over leverage themselves and the revenue
18:24from the new hosting business doesn't come online exactly as planned they could get into trouble second
18:29the conversion if the stock does well the no holders will convert their debt into stock which creates a
18:34whole bunch of new shares diluting existing shareholders so high leverage is a double-edged sword here
18:39and they're not operating in a vacuum you mentioned riot and iron are also moving into ai hosting
18:45competition must be fierce oh absolutely it's a major threat cypher isn't just competing with other
18:50miners pivoting they're up against established cloud giants aws azure google cloud itself ironically and
18:58specialized data center operators especially those may be located in places with even cheaper power or
19:03better natural cooling so margins could get squeezed potentially yeah margins in hpc hosting can be
19:09competitive and because cypher has spent so much on building this specialized infrastructure they
19:15absolutely need to achieve very high utilization rates keep those expensive gpus busy very quickly to
19:20make it profitable and there's also the market sentiment risk we touched on the stock rallied hard on the
19:26google news a lot of optimism might already be baked into the current price meaning it might be priced for
19:31perfection could be it suggests that any stumble in execution any delay could lead to a pretty sharp
19:37pullback in the stock price because expectations are already so high okay one last risk area internal
19:43signals what are the big shareholders doing yeah this is always worth watching especially after big news
19:48you want to see if insiders or major early investors are buying holding or selling and there was a notable
19:54transaction recently a large shareholder v3 holding ltd sold a significant chunk of shares
20:01about 5.58 million shares so on the one hand you have google backing them analysts upgrading the stock
20:08but a major holder is selling millions of shares how do you square that does that worry you it definitely
20:16adds a note of caution you have to consider both sides it could just be standard profit taking maybe they got in
20:21early the stock ran up and they decided to lock in some gains that happens all the time okay but the
20:26other interpretation is that maybe some sophisticated investors people who know the company well perhaps
20:31think the easy money has been made or that the execution risks over the next say 10 years are just too
20:38significant for their liking so they're reducing their exposure so it's a conflicting signal for sure it is
20:43the public narrative is very bullish but seeing a large holder sell it's something you absolutely have to
20:48factor into your own analysis it demands a closer look okay so this is clearly a complex situation
20:54with huge potential but also significant risks for you listening if you want to track this story as it
21:00unfolds what are the really essential things to watch what metrics tell us if cipher is succeeding
21:06not just in mining but in this whole new hybrid model right you need to track two distinct but related
21:12sets of metrics first you can't ignore the original business the operational and mining metrics that's
21:18still generating cash flow hopefully so things like their total hash rate yeah total hash rate deployed
21:24how much bitcoin they're actually mining each day or month usually measured in hash per second maybe
21:29broken down by site and importantly look at the efficiency are they upgrading their miners replacing
21:34older less efficient machines with newer ones that tells you if the core mining operations improving
21:39or just becoming a drag okay so keep an eye on the mining basics but the real story now is the
21:44ai and hpc side right that's the new thesis what are the key checkpoints there absolutely critical
21:50here the kpis are all about getting that capacity filled and generating revenue first track how
21:56quickly fluid stack and any other tenants they might sign up actually occupies that initial 168 milw block
22:03utilization rates utilization rates are probably the single most important metric for this new business
22:08is the capacity sitting idle or is it humming along at say 90 plus utilization
22:14high capex businesses like this need high utilization to be profitable and then critically
22:19when does the revenue actually start hitting the books when do they start recognizing revenue from
22:24these hosting contracts until the cash starts flowing it's all just potential and then we need to see
22:28how that new revenue impacts the overall financials right does it actually deliver the
22:32diversification and stability everyone hopes for exactly the absolute key financial metric to watch
22:38will be the split in revenue what percentage is coming from bitcoin mining versus what percentage
22:42is coming from hpc hosting you want to see that hosting percentage climb steadily over time that's the
22:48proof the pivot is working if that hosting slice of the pie gets bigger and bigger it shows the strategy
22:53is succeeding beyond the revenue split you need to track margins gross margins operating margins ideally the
23:00margins on hosting should be significantly higher and more stable than the margins on mining okay and
23:06then of course watch the bottom line in cash flow track ebitda trends track operating cash flow compared to their
23:12capital expenditures are they funding operations in growth with recurring revenue now or are they still
23:18relying heavily on debt or selling the bitcoin they mine and speaking of debt given that big 1.1 billion
23:25dollar convertible note tracking their capital structure seems vital essential you have
23:30to monitor their total debt levels keep an eye on the interest expense how much are they paying just
23:34to service that debt right and check their liquidity how much cash they have on hand to handle
23:40unexpected delays or costs and leverage ratios yes especially leverage ratios like net debt to ebitda
23:47compare those ratios to their peers in the industry are they taking on significantly more debt than others
23:53making similar moves ideally you want to see those leverage ratios start to trend down as the new
23:59hosting revenue starts coming in and contributing to ebitda that shows they're managing the growth
24:04responsibly okay and finally how is the market itself reacting stock performance sentiment what
24:11should we look for yeah watch the stock price obviously look at how it reacted to the big announcements
24:16the google deal news when they announced the black pearl site was energized did it spike and then pull back
24:22analyze the chart right also watch for changes in short interest are more people betting against the
24:27stock look at trading volume spikes and keep an eye on analyst ratings we mentioned already upgraded them
24:34to buy our other analysts following what are their price targets but always take those with a grain of
24:38salt and the key question underlying all that is is the market getting ahead of itself did the price run
24:44up too fast on the initial excitement creating a valuation that the company now has to work really hard to
24:49justify through flawless execution that's the risk of priced in optimism and comparing their valuation to
24:55peers like riot and iron gives context crucial context look at their valuation multiples things like
25:01enterprise value to revenue evr or ev to ebitda how do those compare to riot iron or other data
25:08center players is cypher trading at a big premium just because of the google name if so their execution
25:15needs to be demonstrably better to warrant that higher valuation it tells you where the market
25:20is placing its bets hashtag hashtag out for sure so just to wrap up the main strategic points here look
25:26the google backing this huge 10-year hpc contract these are genuinely powerful signals they fundamentally
25:31reposition cypher in the market it's a potential pivot point setting them up for maybe greater
25:35resilience more predictable growth like an infrastructure company but and it's a big but realizing that
25:40potential it absolutely depends on really three things flawless execution on building out and
25:46upgrading sites like black pearl getting that 168 milw of capacity filled up quickly high utilization
25:55and maintaining really tight control over costs throughout this whole 10-year period so for you
26:00listening if you're looking for that kind of hybrid exposure a mix of physical infrastructure assets
26:05plus some crypto upside cifr cypher stock it offers that blend but let's be really clear right absolutely
26:12this is still a high volatility speculative investment especially with that large convertible debt load
26:17hanging over them it really should be treated more like a moonshot potential type of bet requires a lot
26:22of homework ongoing monitoring and caution it's probably not something for a core conservative long-term
26:27portfolio right needs careful consideration and maybe one final thought for you to track personally the
26:32next quarterly earnings report that's going to be a really important moment keep a close eye on that
26:37release to see if those ai and hpc revenues are actually starting to show up in a meaningful way
26:44are they beginning to genuinely displace or at least significantly add to the volatile mining revenue
26:50that tangible proof seeing that recurring hosting revenue hit the income statement that's everything
26:56for this story right now that's the number one thing to watch for okay so that brings us to the end
27:01but we want to hear from you what do you think does google's backing make cypher feel like a safer bet
27:06because of that financial muscle or do you think this is mostly just hype around ai and crypto coming
27:11together maybe masking some really deep execution risks yeah and which side of the business do you
27:15trust more for the long term the established but volatile mining promise or this new potentially more
27:23stable but unproven ai hosting promise let us know your thoughts we covered a ton of ground today i mean
27:29from liquid cooling specifics and gpu supply chains all the way to the details of warrants and
27:34convertible debt if you found this deep dive helpful if you feel like you understand this google
27:39cypher situation better now please do us a favor hit that subscribe button maybe leave a comment with
27:45your thoughts below and definitely ring that notification bell yeah seriously engaging with the content
27:50subscribing commenting liking it genuinely helps support us helps the channel get seen by more people in the
27:57algorithm and that allows us to keep doing these deep dives bringing you quality analysis on crypto
28:02infrastructure and all these fascinating intersections so thanks again for diving in with us today
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