The Mechanics of the Big Cycle

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Transcript

00:00There are orders, you know, there's a monetary order, there's a domestic, political, social order,

00:08there's a global war, and they go through, tend to go through a cycle in which they break down

00:16and you have new orders. So a good example would be, let's say, 1945. We have a new monetary order,

00:24we have new, all those orders. And then when they break down, you wipe out a lot and you have a new

00:32beginning and everybody remembers the trauma of the past. And then there's the building up of credit,

00:39the building up of that, there's low levels, it can build up. Maybe in terms of the UK, it was how to

00:45have to deal with it. But there's a dynamic of that order. And then prosperity. So if you look

00:54at the patterns of history, in the second industrial revolution, it was a consequence. After wars,

01:04we have that, we turn the century, 1907, we have the panic of 1907, we have that cycle. So these

01:11are interrelated cycles. And then we can see that the relationships exist. Because when you have a

01:18combination of a monetary order breakdown or a debt crisis, something like a 2008, when you have

01:27the dynamic internal political and so on, then you have, you know, a very serious one. They don't appear

01:34that way when we're sitting here today in the prosperity and the process of what we're doing

01:41to sustain it. So I think that if hopefully you'll read the book, but particularly chapter eight in the

01:48book goes over that particular cycle. So I would say when you're thinking about it, doesn't have to be

01:54complicated. If you think about these issues simultaneously, you would probably, you know,

02:01you'll have your own thoughts about where we stand on those issues and the confluence of those types of issues.

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