Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin

Crypto Robot

Is it too late to buy Bitcoin? This is one of the most common questions in crypto today. With Bitcoin already reaching record highs and institutions entering the market, many investors are wondering if they’ve missed their chance—or if this is still just the beginning.  In this video, we’ll break down whether it’s too late to buy Bitcoin in 2025, exploring historical cycles, institutional adoption, and long-term price targets. You’ll learn why some experts believe Bitcoin is still in its early adoption phase, while others argue the biggest gains are behind us. We’ll also cover how Bitcoin compares to stocks, gold, and altcoins, so you can decide if BTC fits your investment strategy.  👉 Subscribe for daily alpha on crypto market trends, bold Bitcoin predictions, and altcoin gems that could 10x your portfolio! – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpjN8bNE-CoAgpfMatghM9g  📧 Email: cryptorobothelp@gmail.com  💰 Affiliate Links  Sofi Checking & Savings – Get $25 free ➝ https://www.sofi.com/invite/money?gcp=16a53d0f-b4b2-441d-9100-cfb506305260&isAliasGcp=false  Sofi Investing – Free $25 in stock ➝ https://www.sofi.com/invite/invest?gcp=ab31edd8-701e-4109-9225-51b41e35d246&isAliasGcp=false  Coinbase Exchange – Earn up to $300 BTC ➝ https://coinbase.com/join/YPUQLCY?src=referral-link  Tracking Tools – CoinGecko | CoinMarketCap  Trading Tools – Get $15 off TradingView ➝ https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=cryptonextsteps  #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BuyBitcoin #CryptoNews #CryptoInvesting #Blockchain #DigitalGold #Crypto2025 #Web3 #DeFi #BitcoinFuture #Altcoins #Investing #CryptoMarket

Transcript

00:00welcome back to the deep dive if you've listened to financial news uh scrolled through any economic

00:10forecast or maybe you just looked at your own portfolio you've certainly heard that same sort

00:13of panicked whisper about high growth assets is it too late that anxiety yeah it almost universally

00:20refers to one asset doesn't it bitcoin it really encapsulates that deep-seated fear of missing out

00:26you know fomo on potentially generational wealth creation the price feels high sometimes the

00:32volatility oh it feels extreme and the sheer volume of information can just be overwhelming

00:37that's exactly the mission statement for this deep dive today you shared some fantastic sources with

00:42us really powerful research from investment firms like uh ark invest and fidelity some intricate

00:48on-chain data analysis from glass node and critical historical market perspectives and we're going to

00:53use them to directly analyze bitcoin's long-term value proposition right now we really need to

00:58separate the short-term kind of exhilarating noise of daily speculation from the long-term structural

01:04conviction that seems to underpin this whole ecosystem and our sources they immediately

01:09establish this core conflict the thing that drives this constant anxiety it's really the difference

01:15between trying to achieve perfect timing in the market you know guessing the absolute peak or the

01:21absolute bottom which is impossible basic pretty much impossible yeah versus simply spending time in

01:27the market you know enduring the necessary volatility but with genuine conviction in the assets underlying

01:32fundamentals right so we're going deep today we're looking at historical charts we'll be dissecting

01:37some corporate balance sheets and crucially we're analyzing what the underlying networks are actually

01:42doing right now to gauge well utility okay let's unpack this and maybe start with the emotional side of

01:49investing this question is it too late it really is it's almost the most cyclical and predictable thing

01:55in financial markets especially crypto isn't it absolutely it's a recurring narrative it reappears every single

02:01time bitcoin hits a new milestone or breaks an all-time high it feels like a psychological trap and our sources

02:07really highlight just how historically consistent this pattern is yeah it's like clockwork what's fascinating here

02:12though is that the critics and that pervasive anxiety the whole is it too late thing it's not unique to the

02:19current price level wherever that might be when you're listening if you look back this exact fear

02:25has shown up at drastically lower valuations across well at least three distinct market cycles right and

02:31that's really the first lesson our research emphasizes the human response to exponential growth

02:37it seems to be pretty much always the same fear and greed right so think about the emotional landscape back in

02:44say 2013 bitcoin was hovering around what two hundred dollars yeah about that at the time that felt

02:49astronomical i mean really huge many thought the bubble had already peaked especially coming off the

02:54wreckage of those early exchange failures like mount gox oh yeah matt gox was a disaster the prevailing

02:59wisdom then was that the technology was just too fringe maybe too complex and definitely already too expensive

03:04at two hundred dollars and the narrative was identical four years later jump to 2017 remember that bitcoin

03:10approached twenty thousand dollars crazy times fueled by intense media coverage the early ico mania

03:18every one of the sidelines felt they had completely missed the boat that period was characterized by

03:23that retail frenzy you know where taxi drivers and grandparents were asking about bitcoin yeah the

03:28classic sign classic sign of a frothy top yeah which just reinforced the fear that the asset was already

03:34untouchable it's run up too much and we saw it again maybe even more clearly in 2021

03:39the asset peaked near sixty nine thousand dollars each time the collective fear which was amplified

03:46massively by media coverage was that the growth curve was finally finally exhausted and that buying

03:52in now guaranteed you'd be the bag holder yet what these historical milestones overwhelmingly demonstrate

03:57and this is absolutely key to understanding long-term conviction is that despite those massive

04:02drawdowns i mean volatility that would scare off most traditional investors we're talking

04:06crisis of 50 70 even 80 percent brutal just brutal drawdowns but the long-term holders the infamous ho

04:13dealers the ones who ignored the constant stream of critics and the frankly terrifying daily volatility

04:20right they have consistently seen transformative returns over time right this really is the simple

04:26powerful difference between conviction and speculation time in the market not timing the market okay so how

04:32do we then look past that daily noise the scary headlines and truly understand that longer-term trend this

04:40brings us to one of the i think most powerful analytical tools mentioned in the sources right the long-term

04:45logarithmic growth chart this isn't the standard linear price chart you usually see right exactly it's a

04:50really important distinction if you plot bitcoin's history on a standard linear chart the early days look

04:55completely flat and the recent movements look like a vertical cliff which psychologically is terrifying it

05:01makes it look unsustainable yeah it looks like it's just gone parabolic and has to crash precisely however

05:08when you view the price on a logarithmic scale now the scale itself compresses those huge dollar movements

05:15but it accurately emphasizes the percentage changes over time and critically it reveals the underlying

05:22structural trend much more clearly ah okay i see the distinction so it shifts your focus from like how

05:27much money did i make or lose today to something more like what's the compounding growth rate been over

05:32the last five or ten years that's it exactly and what this logarithmic analysis consistently reveals

05:37is that despite those huge crashes which you know are arguably a necessary function of price discovery in a

05:43volatile new asset class the price has always trended structurally upward okay it demonstrates that

05:48volatility is necessary sure but maybe temporary noise layered on top of an undeniable expanding

05:54underlying network effect and adoption trend okay so the logarithmic chart shows us the macro trend the

05:59big picture but how do we measure the conviction of those holders and maybe their cost basis that's

06:05where this critical on-chain metric comes in right realized cap this gets a bit technical but it seems

06:10really vital it is vital and it's a critical distinction that immediately moves us beyond just looking at the

06:16simple market cap so market capitalization that just multiplies the current often volatile price by the

06:22total circulating supply easy calculation right price times coins exactly yeah realize cap though which

06:29was pioneered by on-chain analysts like glass node and others it's vastly different it calculates the

06:34aggregate value of the entire coin supply based on the price when each individual coin last moved on the

06:41blockchain wait okay let me try and visualize this it's like if you had say a massive museum collection

06:46you wouldn't value it based on today's auction price for a similar item but rather based on the actual

06:52historical acquisition price for every single item you bought over the years that's a perfect analogy

06:57yeah it effectively measures the aggregate capital inflow into bitcoin that hasn't actually left the

07:01system yeah because it ignores the short-term fluctuations of highly liquid coins being traded back and forth

07:08it gives you a much clearer often lower floor a kind of basement valuation if you will based on the actual

07:14historical cost basis of the more patient investors hmm okay but if that metric the realized cap is

07:20really high right now doesn't that just mean that the average investor is sitting on huge profits yeah

07:27which usually signals a potential sell-off right and how do your sources address the concern that maybe

07:32realized cap is skewed by like institutional whales moving massive sums around that's a great question and

07:38it's why we don't look at realized cap in isolation we use it often in conjunction with another powerful

07:43tool the market value to realize value ratio or mvrv mvrv okay yeah this metric compares the market cap

07:49the current value to the realized cap that aggregated cost basis okay when mvrv gets really high it can

07:55suggest the market is overheated yes because investors are potentially sitting on large unrealized gains

08:01relative to their entry price however analysts also look for sustained mvrv ratios that stay comfortably

08:07above 1.0 that suggests the network is generally healthy and the average holder is in profit which

08:14incentivizes holding but more importantly the stability and the gradual expansion of the realized cap itself

08:20even during price crashes that confirms that a massive amount of capital is deeply embedded and isn't just

08:27speculative hot money right it hasn't fled the scene exactly that embedded capital forms a sort of

08:32psychological floor for the true strong hands the long-term holders who likely won't sell unless the

08:38price falls significantly below their own acquisition cost below their piece of that realized value okay

08:44that clarifies mechanics quite a bit so understanding these historical cycles the psychology and these

08:49deeper metrics like realized cap it tells us that the fear of missing out seems kind of baked into the

08:54assets dna but historically conviction and patience have been well overwhelmingly rewarded that's the

09:00historical lesson yeah okay let's pivot then let's move sharply from market history and psychology to the

09:06foundation itself what actually gives bitcoin its fundamental verifiable value proposition well any discussion of

09:16bitcoin's long-term value the thing that really fuels the conviction we were just analyzing it has to begin

09:23and arguably end with its defining characteristic absolute verifiable and program scarcity the ultimate

09:30supply constraint we hear this number constantly 21 million but it's worth stressing the sheer finality

09:36of it and maybe the sociological implications too only 21 million btc will ever exist period right that limit

09:43is programmed directly into the core code it's essentially immutable unless there's overwhelming global consensus to

09:48change it which is incredibly unlikely and that finality is fundamental to its appeal especially as a

09:54potential hedge against global monetary inflation where fiat currencies don't have that guarantee yeah

09:59it's the crucial difference from almost every other asset class isn't it unlike predicted fiat

10:03currencies which you know can be printed seemingly indefinitely at the whim of central bank quantitative

10:08easing yeah or even something like gold which theoretically has an unknown quantity still hidden deep in the earth

10:14or maybe even asteroids someday who knows right the supply isn't perfectly known but the hard limit

10:19of 21 million bitcoin is a known mathematically constrained certainty this is what attracts those high

10:26commission investors especially institutions they trust the scarcity because it's guaranteed by code

10:33and distributed network consensus not by some shifting governmental policy or a new mining discovery exactly trust the

10:40math not the politicians essentially and that scarcity isn't just a static number it's constantly reinforced by

10:46a programmed predictable supply shock mechanism we have to talk about the having yes the halving this is

10:54arguably the single most important long-term driver of the asset's value and it's repeatedly detailed in the

11:00research we looked at from firms like fidelity so what is it exactly the halving is a deliberate algorithmic event

11:06it occurs roughly every four years or more precisely every 210 000 blocks mined on the blockchain its purpose

11:13is brutal in its simplicity it cuts the block reward in half and the block reward is that's the amount of

11:19new bitcoin created and automatically given to the miners for successfully adding a block of transactions

11:24and securing the network okay so let's put some numbers on that to make it concrete when bitcoin first

11:29launched the reward was 50 btc per block correct quite generous back then yeah then the first

11:36halving cut it to 25 btc the second cut it down to 12.5 right and the third having the one in 2020

11:44cut that rate down to 6.25 btc per block the next halving expected around spring 2024 is programmed to

11:52reduce the rate again down to 3.125 btc per new block wow so it's a compound exponential reduction in

12:00the inflation rate of new bitcoin exactly to be clear it doesn't affect the existing supply already out there

12:05but it dramatically and continually reduces the rate of new supply entering the market

12:09it makes new bitcoin harder and harder to mine so it's like a continuous pre-scheduled tightening

12:14of the belt isn't it it ensures that the asset becomes exponentially harder to acquire over time

12:19assuming demand even just remains constant it just builds this constant pressure cooker under the

12:23supply side that's the key takeaway from the sources on this if demand remains constant or more likely

12:29increases and we'll definitely get into the institutional demand side later while the rate

12:34of new supply generation is programmatically cut in half well basic supply and demand economics dictates

12:40that upward price pressure must eventually follow all else being equal right this mechanism makes bitcoin

12:47arguably the only truly predictable scarcity asset in human history you know exactly when the supply

12:54shocks are coming kind of yeah its primary function however at least as perceived currently is increasingly

13:01recognized as a non-sovereign store of value a place to park wealth outside the traditional system

13:07and perhaps most relevant in today's environment you know with global instability and bouts of high

13:12inflation it's fundamentally viewed by many as a potential hedge this is where the comparison to

13:18traditional time-tested assets like gold becomes really crucial doesn't it it does

13:23and the sources specifically recommend comparing bitcoin's performance directly to gold over the last

13:29decade or so for millennia gold has been the ultimate inflation hedge it's tangible it's relatively rare

13:36difficult to confiscate easily and hard to move in bulk the standard it's the historical standard

13:41however modern investors especially younger demographics and institutions looking for efficiency

13:46increasingly see bitcoin as potentially the superior hedge for the digital age it's digitally native

13:52globally transferable almost instantly highly divisible and arguably more censorship resistant in

13:57certain scenarios and the performance comparison well its performance over the last 10 years certainly

14:01supports the argument that it has successfully fulfilled some kind of modern digital store of value

14:06role it has often significantly outperformed gold and percentage terms during that period

14:11though with much much higher volatility of course of course okay so the foundation seems solid

14:16unbreakable scarcity enforced by the halving coupled with its increasing recognition as reliable secure

14:23digital property or a store of value but the market landscape itself has changed dramatically since the

14:28last cycle hasn't it it's clearly no longer just a retail phenomenon let's talk about who is buying it now

14:34and how that changes the long-term outlook yeah this is maybe the biggest differentiator between the current

14:40market phase and say 2017 or even 2021 it's the foundational shift driven by regulatory acceptance

14:47or at least steps towards it and the resulting massive institutional interest this really marks the

14:53transition away from bitcoin being seen as just a purely retail almost hobbyist asset wall street has definitely

15:00joined the game and the source material heavily emphasizes the well almost earth-shattering significance of the spot bitcoin

15:07exchange traded fund etf approvals particularly in the us huge news that was such a critical regulatory

15:14step wasn't it it signaled not just interest but finally mainstream accessibility and acceptance

15:20it makes it incredibly easy now for traditional financial advisors pension funds large institutional

15:26trading desks to gain liquid exposure without the perceived technical risk or burden of holding the actual bitcoin themselves

15:33in this transition it's more than just enthusiasm it's become a structural necessity

15:37for these really large-scale players i mean institutions manage trillions in assets under management AUM

15:44they cannot practically go out and buy billions of dollars of a commodity from various sometimes

15:48unregulated crypto exchanges right compliance nightmare exactly they require regulated easily tradable

15:55familiar products that fit into their existing workflows and compliance frameworks so the involvement of these

16:01major traditionally risk-averse institutions cited in the sources we're talking firms like blackrock the world's

16:08largest asset manager fidelity and then on the corporate treasury side microstrategy their participation is

16:15now fundamentally driving the trend microstrategy is so often cited as the ultimate very public case study in

16:21corporate conviction aren't they their strategy has just been relentless accumulation it really has

16:26they've leveraged debt issued equity specifically to continuously add to their bitcoin reserves they've

16:32effectively turned their company in large part into a bitcoin-backed treasury vehicle it's like the

16:38ultimate proof of long-term belief particularly in the you know the michael saylor thesis about digital

16:42energy and property absolutely their former ceo sailor has very publicly argued that cash held on a balance

16:50sheet is essentially a depreciating asset constantly losing purchasing power to inflation and therefore

16:56in his view bitcoin is the only suitable treasury reserve asset for a truly forward-looking corporation in the

17:02digital age and their holdings now the source data puts it where citing the source data we reviewed

17:08their holdings now stand at well over 18 billion dollars worth of bitcoin it's a staggering amount for one

17:14company wow that level of corporate balance sheet allocation that's clearly not short-term speculation

17:20it demonstrates a profound high-level conviction in the assets future potentially as a foundational

17:26digital currency standard or store of value you simply don't make bets that large on your corporate

17:30treasury if you're thinking short-term right and that corporate accumulation plus now the etf inflows

17:36it must have a direct profound impact on the supply dynamics we discussed earlier with the halving

17:42when institutions start accumulating at this scale they're essentially removing liquid supply from the open

17:46market aren't they that's the critical loop mechanism that's now potentially a play yes the more

17:52institutions acquire and then sequester btc often moving it into long-term high security custody solutions

17:59or cold storage vaults the less bitcoin is actively available for trading by retail investors and short-term

18:05speculators on exchanges so the free float shrinks precisely this absorption rate especially accelerated

18:11post-etf approval where you have giants like blackrock potentially buying huge amounts daily to meet

18:16etf demand it systematically reduces the free-floating supply available for trading which inevitably

18:23creates further scarcity pressure basic economics again so institutional demand isn't just a separate

18:28driver alongside the halving it actually seems to amplify the effect of the programmed halving

18:33you've got supply reduction meeting potentially relentless deep-pocketed demand exactly it creates a

18:39dynamic where even a relatively small increase in net demand could potentially result in a

18:43disproportionately large change in price simply because the available supply on the sell side is

18:48becoming so thin so inelastic the order book depth might be shrinking okay this shift isn't just

18:53confined to corporate boardrooms and wall street trading desks either the sources point out we're

18:58seeing real actual governmental conviction in some places too let's look at the unique example of el

19:04salvador ah yes el salvador it serves as a really unique and frankly powerful case study in global adoption

19:12whatever you think of the politics or the execution their decision back in 2021 to adopt bitcoin as legal

19:18tender alongside the u.s dollar it highlights a real world governmental conviction in its financial utility

19:26not just as an investment not merely as an investment vehicle no but as a potential practical currency

19:31a tool for cheaper remittances which are huge for their economy a way to bank the unbanked and perhaps a

19:36strategic hedge against dependence on the u.s dollar giving them maybe a degree of financial sovereignty

19:41they didn't have before that decision regardless of its immediate successor challenges it certainly

19:48signals to the entire developing world or the global south that bitcoin can function potentially not only as

19:54a store of value like digital gold but also maybe as a verifiable medium of exchange or at least a

19:59settlement layer at a national level it opens the door to that possibility yes and the combination of wall

20:05wall street acceptance through etfs deep corporate convictions shown by microstrategy and this kind

20:10of sovereign adoption experiment in el salvador it truly changes the risk profile and the long-term

20:16trajectory compared to past cycles yeah it fundamentally provides important context for that recurring anxiety

20:22over is it too late when you see a foundational technology potentially moving from being a fringe

20:28recale novelty to becoming a globally adopted institutional and even governmental asset

20:33well the time horizon for the investment fundamentally shifts from thinking about months or the next cycle

20:38to potentially thinking in decades right it reframes the whole question okay now in the spirit of a

20:43proper deep dive we absolutely must maintain balance here our source material is very clear that this

20:49massive potential reward we've discussed comes with significant unavoidable risks we can't offer a

20:56comprehensive analysis without detailing the necessary skepticism and the potential downsides absolutely crucial

21:02and the most immediate and obvious risk historically speaking is the volatility we have to relentlessly

21:08emphasize the historical precedent of extreme price swings it's not for the faint of heart definitely

21:13not the research clearly shows that bitcoin can and often does drop 50 or more during a bear market

21:19cycle we saw what 80 drawdowns from the 2017 peak and nearly 70 from the 2021 peak investors absolutely

21:27must be mentally and frankly financially prepared for that level of drawdown regardless of how

21:32bullish the long-term outlook might seem yeah managing that risk is key beyond just price volatility

21:38there's the ongoing and maybe increasing regulatory uncertainty this can significantly impact the

21:44environment especially for those institutional holders we just talked about governments around the

21:49world are still figuring out developing and in some cases actively enforcing their stance on crypto

21:55yeah the regulatory landscape is still a patchwork and that's a major risk factor this kind of breaks

22:00down by jurisdiction on one hand you have potentially comprehensive frameworks emerging like the eu's

22:06mic of the markets in crypto assets regulation now while it's restrictive in some areas it at least

22:11offers clarity and a single set of rules for 27 member states which could actually aid institutional

22:17adoption in the long run by providing certainty right rules of the road exactly on the other hand

22:22the united states has generally adopted a more piecemeal often enforcement focused approach you

22:28have various agencies like the sec and the cftc sort of staking claims over different aspects of

22:33crypto which creates persistent legal uncertainty and potential conflict yeah the regulation by enforcement

22:38critique that's the phrase often used yes this regulatory flux remains a significant risk sudden adverse

22:45policy moves new rules or major enforcement actions could easily disrupt accessibility dampen

22:51institutional enthusiasm or impact specific parts of the ecosystem okay and then there's opportunity

22:57cost this is a crucial often overlooked risk for any investor isn't it when you tie up capital on

23:03the established blue chip like bitcoin you always run the risk of potentially missing out on higher

23:09percentage returns elsewhere this is critical especially we're dealing with a relatively younger fast-moving

23:14asset class like digital assets overall specifically our sources do mention alternative options that might outperform

23:20bitcoin at least in certain market cycles for example smaller high growth altcoins they can sometimes

23:25offer much higher percentage returns but with way more risk presumably oh vastly increased risk

23:30absolutely many go to zero but the potential for outsized gains exists there secondly you have the

23:37rapidly emerging world of defi decentralized finance these projects offer complex mechanisms like yield farming

23:45or liquidity providing potentially generating higher returns or yield than simply holding bitcoin

23:50though again with significant smart contract risks and complexities and what about this idea of tokenizing

23:55traditional assets real-world assets that's the third potential competitor for capital real-world assets or

24:02rwas being tokenized and brought onto blockchains this whole sector aims to bring assets like say fractional

24:09ownership of real estate private equity stakes or even commodities like gold or carbon credits onto the blockchain

24:14okay this could potentially offer the security and transparency benefits of digital ownership

24:19combined with the more predictable or at least familiar return profiles of traditional finance

24:24if the rwa sector really takes off significant capital might flow there seeking both blockchain benefits and

24:30exposure to traditional markets potentially causing investors holding only bitcoin to miss out on those

24:35diversifying returns so lots to consider on the risk side okay let's turn back to the on-chain data again for

24:41a moment let's check the market's pulse beyond just the price chart and institutional flows

24:47if institutions are buying what does the network activity itself tell us about genuine utility growth

24:53is it actually being used more yeah looking at on-chain activity trends gives us objective evidence of

24:58adoption or lack thereof we monitor core metrics like the number of active addresses on the network

25:04daily or weekly and the total transaction volume or the value being settled on the chain why are those

25:09important well if the price goes up significantly but these fundamental usage metrics stagnate or even

25:15decline that might indicate a purely speculative bubble somewhat detached from underlying utility

25:21however if the price rises alongside expanding network use meaning more people or entities are actually

25:26using the network for transfers for storage for security that suggests more genuine organic utility

25:32driven growth is happening that makes sense and what about efficiency one of the major historical

25:38criticisms of bitcoin used constantly by detractors was always the speed the cost and the capacity

25:44limitations of the main bitcoin blockchain the base layer you know a very valid criticism for a long

25:49time yes and that's precisely where the adoption and the growing usage of second layer scaling solutions

25:56become so incredibly important specifically the lightning network right lightning how does that help the lightning network

26:02is designed specifically to handle instant or near instant very low cost often near zero cost micro

26:09transactions off the main bitcoin blockchain it works by creating temporary payment channels between users

26:14or hubs so it takes the load off the main chain for small stuff exactly it allows for potentially millions

26:20of transactions per second across the network rather than the handful per second the base layer can handle

26:25so increased lightning adoption and volume show that the network is successfully scaling its utility directly

26:30addressing that key historical weakness and proving its potential viability as a global medium of exchange

26:35at least for smaller everyday purchases okay so if the underlying utility is arguably growing or at least

26:42the infrastructure for it is improving and institutions are clearly buying this leads us to the projected

26:47maturity of bitcoin as an asset class the research you shared suggests a potential shift toward what they call

26:53blue chip status what does that mean that's kind of the long-term outlook summarized in a term

26:58familiar to traditional investors yeah the idea is that bitcoin having survived multiple cycles gained

27:04regulatory clarity via etfs and attracted institutional capital has maybe achieved a certain critical

27:09mass while it may perhaps never again deliver another 100x return from its current kind of valuation

27:14the numbers just get too big its role might be shifting from disruptive upstart to exactly moving away from

27:21being primarily a high potentially high reward speculative outlier into becoming a more stable established blue chip

27:29digital asset it might have earned its status as the foundational digital layer the most secure

27:34the most decentralized and that stability even if it comes with slower massive percentage growth compared

27:40to its early days that could be the ultimate long-term value proposition for many investors

27:45security established permanence digital scarcity you can rely on interesting so if it's becoming

27:52established and the liquid supply is shrinking due to aj laying and institutions who is actually holding

27:57the supply right now we need to profile the holders to see who's potentially left to sell during downturns

28:03yeah examining wallet distribution data helps us understand the market structure and the level of

28:08conviction on-chain analytics firms allow us to contrast the percentage of bitcoin held by long-term

28:13yeja dealers often defined as addresses that haven't moved their coins for say over a year or even

28:18longer the so-called strong hands versus the generally smaller percentage held by short-term speculators or

28:25traders addresses that show high activity glass node data for instance consistently shows that when the

28:31supply held by these long-term ho dealers is high sometimes exceeding 70 or even 75 percent of the total

28:38circulating supply it indicates that the liquid supply the amount readily available for purchase

28:43on exchanges is extremely low and that conviction is strong among the majority of holders exactly

28:49this structure tends to minimize the risk of massive sudden sell-offs driven purely by retail panic

28:55because most of the coins are locked away by holders with a long-term thesis it also means that

28:59new institutional inflows like from the etfs immediately encounter quite intense scarcity potentially

29:05amplifying their price impact okay so the sources are essentially telling us that the asset is being

29:10progressively locked up both by the programmed code through the halving mechanism reducing new supply

29:16and by the conviction and custody requirements of long-term individual corporate and institutional

29:21holders reducing the available supply that sums it up pretty well yeah the narrative of is it too late

29:27often seems to ignore these powerful converging structural forces the program scarcity the verifiable utility

29:35growth on layer two the accelerating institutionalization and the deep-seated conviction shown by the

29:40majority of holders that collectively seem to define the long-term upward trend despite the significant

29:47volatility along the way and cash tag tag outro this has been an incredibly detailed deep dive into the

29:53source material you provided we started with that almost universal anxiety of fomo is it too late

29:59ah and i feel like we've systematically broken down the long-term thesis for bitcoin using hard data

30:05historical context and current trends yeah i think we've established three main sort of non-negotiable

30:10pillars that the sources point to supporting bitcoin's potential long-term value first there's the

30:14undeniable historical precedence which really shows that deep conviction and time in the market have

30:19historically outperformed attempts at perfect market timing second there's the unwavering scarcity

30:24enforced programmatically by that 21 million hard cap and the compounding having cycles reducing new

30:30issuance and third there's the accelerating institutionalization driven by major wall street

30:35firms like blackrock fidelity and corporate players like microstrategy which is fundamentally changing the

30:41supplied man dynamic by locking up more of the remaining liquid supply okay so our final synthesis really

30:48revisits that core anxiety we started with the detailed analysis we've walked through based on your

30:53sources it seems to definitively shift the focus away from trying to perfectly time the next cyclical

30:59peak or trough and directs it more towards recognizing the deep structural technological and

31:04regulatory factors that appear to be driving the assets overall long-term trend exactly if you believe

31:10fundamentally in the future utility and value proposition of decentralized digitally native scarce property

31:17well then the question maybe isn't so much about perfect timing which is likely impossible anyway

31:21it's more about acknowledging the potential long-term trend and deciding if and how you want to acquire

31:26some time in this market right it's a different framing and as we wrap up this deep dive we want to leave you

31:32the listener with one final perhaps provocative thought something to maybe mull over as you process all this data

31:38we spent a lot of time today discussing bitcoin's potential transition to becoming digital gold you know a stable

31:44store of value a hedge against inflation but what if its ultimate role is actually far bigger than simply

31:50being a better digital version of gold okay go on consider its true potential especially based on the

31:57growth of scaling solutions like the lightning network and its established status as arguably the

32:02most secure most trusted most decentralized base layer in the entire crypto ecosystem is bitcoin

32:09permanently entrenched is merely digital gold destined to just sit inertly in vaults and portfolios

32:15as a hedge or is the current wave of institutional hype and adoption perhaps just the very beginning of its true

32:23evolution into something much more profound could it become a foundational global settlement layer maybe

32:28acting as a neutral reserve asset for the digital age the secure censorship resistant backbone for the entire future

32:35decentralized digital economy that ultimately seems to be the grander scope of the conviction we're seeing

32:40reflected in some of the long-term source material food for thought

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