Trump could end the war within the next 24 hours, former Israeli diplomat says

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00:00where we are joined by the former Israeli diplomat, Alan Pincus, who's going to give his view.

00:08Alan, what was your reaction to the attack on Hamas members in Qatar, first of all?

00:17Very surprising, Alexander, because if these people deserve to die, if these people are

00:22legitimate targets, if these people were complicit in the terror attack of October 7, 2023,

00:31then why have they not been targeted until now? It's been almost two years. It's been 704 days,

00:3723 months, almost two years. And to do this now, when there are negotiations with

00:44Hamas via Qatar, to do this now seems to have one intention and one intention only,

00:57and that is to derail any kind of ceasefire talks. Now, there are three things, although Noga

01:04Tarnopolski, your correspondent, summarized it very accurately, I think. There are three things that

01:12remain unknown at this point. The first is, what did the U.S. know and when did they know it? Because

01:19there are mixed signals and even contradictory statements coming out of Washington in the last

01:25few hours. The second is, is it true, and Noga Tarnopolski referred to that, is it actually true

01:33that both the chief of the general staff, Lieutenant General Zemir, and the head of the Mossad,

01:38David Barnett, both opposed this action? We don't know. And the third thing that we don't know,

01:45although that's becoming relatively known now, but still, we don't know for a fact,

01:51what exactly is the result of this attack? I mean, was it in a cost-effective analysis,

01:57was it worth it? This is Qatar. It's not just the mediator in the hostage talks and the ceasefire

02:04talks. This is an American ally. This is a major non-NATO ally designated by American law

02:11in 2022. Why on earth would Israel do this two years after the war had begun? Still unknown.

02:19Yeah, it looks like Israel was willing to take the diplomatic hit in order to do this mission. And if

02:25we believe the statements by Hamas, it does seem like all of the people who had tried to be killed

02:30have survived, the key members of Hamas. And it comes, of course, at a time when Israel's reputation

02:36on the world stage has been badly tarnished. We've had the likes of the United Nations and human rights

02:41groups give accusations of genocide, creating famine. And will this not simply turn the whole

02:49region against it, even potentially imperiling the Abraham Accords?

02:53It could. It very well could, potentially and practically, derail not just the normalization

03:04process, but specifically the Abraham Accords. But despite the world's criticism, despite Israel being

03:14ostracized and isolated and condemned, I'm sorry, all over the place, there is one outstanding

03:23or glaring issue here, Alexander. And that is the U.S.'s position. Because the U.S., you know, they come

03:29out with tweets or posts on Truth Social and a statement here and a half a statement there. And Trump

03:36owns Gaza and he's going to build a Riviera and he wants the war to stop, but then he wants Hamas to be

03:41obliterated. Okay. There hasn't been a coherent American policy. And why am I saying this? Not because I

03:49criticize American policy, which I am, but that's not the point. President Trump could end this war

03:56within the next 24 hours if he so desires, if he so puts his weight on this. One phone call to Mr.

04:04Netanyahu telling him in no unequivocal terms, end the war now and the war ends, Alexander.

04:10You don't need Qatar to mediate. You don't need Egypt to mediate. You don't need a new government

04:17in France. If Trump calls Netanyahu in the next 24 hours and says, my friend, I have stood by you.

04:25I have supported you. You made pledges. You made promises. You did not live up to these promises.

04:31You're prolonging the war. I feel that you're conning and manipulating me. I've had enough. You have 24 hours

04:37to end this war. At that moment, Alexander, the war ends. Whether or not Trump is going to do that,

04:43of course, is a different question. But this is me talking to you, not to Trump.

04:47I mean, it could be seen as something of a slap in the face to the United States.

04:53Donald Trump was using measured language when responding to this, but seemed quite, you know,

04:59he said he was unhappy with the target. And it sort of damages what it means to be a US ally as well.

05:07You're a US ally and you're still getting struck by another US ally. I mean, it damages the US

05:14reputation hugely as well. Absolutely. I mean, you know, it's legitimate now for American allies

05:22in the Arab world, but not only in the Arab world, to ask themselves if this means being an American

05:29ally, what's the point? Now, remember, Qatar is not just an American ally in name. It invests

05:35tens of billions of dollars and pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in arms procurements, in

05:42Boeing jets procurements for Qatar Airways. It hosts the largest US base in the Middle East,

05:50Al-Hodeid Air Force Base, which is home to 10,000 American military personnel. And neighboring it is the

05:58United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia also supposedly ostensibly American allies. And they all must be

06:07asking the same question. What is the point here? That, by the way, is the same question that the

06:13Ukrainians are asking. But that, of course, is a different issue. But you're absolutely right,

06:18Alexander. They're going to ask these questions. And any talk of normalization, and remember,

06:24there was talk of a Saudi deal, quote unquote, which became a catchphrase. I don't think we're

06:30going to hear a lot of that in the next few weeks or months. And it's a sign that Israel believes it

06:35can act with impunity and disregard international law, looking at this latest strike and previous

06:41strikes in the region. Yeah, you're absolutely right. But here's the thing. I mentioned it in a

06:48slightly different context. Israel thinks it's enough that it has America's backing and support,

06:54the diplomatic umbrella and so on. But it's actually working the exact opposite, in the exact

07:02opposite. The affinity between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump, which I'm not sure is going to last much

07:09longer after this, but that's me speculating. This affinity is causing Israel, or exacerbates rather,

07:16Israel's position in the world even more so. And acting with this immunity and impunity that you

07:23just mentioned correctly, I think, only antagonizes people. On top of that, the U.S. itself is abdicating

07:33its global responsibilities or its quasi-formal management of the world order. So, you know,

07:43people are going to look left and right. And I can understand why President Macron is organizing

07:47this conference on the margins of the U.S. – U.N., I'm sorry, General Assembly, in three weeks

07:54on the recognition of a Palestinian state. And I understand the condemnations of other countries.

08:00Look, this deserves perhaps a different conversation, Alexander. But it is nothing short of amazing

08:07how a war that began with the entire world standing behind Israel after the calamity and the horrors

08:15of the terror attack of October 7th has turned, within two years, into Israel being a pariah state.

08:22This is absolutely unprecedented.

08:24Alan Pincus in Tel Aviv, thank you very much for that analysis, former Israeli diplomat.

08:29Thanks.

08:30Alan Pincus in Tel Aviv, thank you very much.

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