French political analyst says President Macron is scrambling to restore stability after prime minister loses confidence vote

ABC NEWS (Australia)

Dr Romain Fathi is a French politics analyst and senior lecturer at the Australian National University. He says the political upheaval has left the French President scrambling to restore stability.

Transcript

00:00So, since 2022, there's been a divided house, a lower house, the National Assembly in France.

00:10To rectify the situation, President Macron called for election in 2024, as you reminded

00:14us.

00:15That returned an even more fragmented house.

00:18That house is supposed to stay until 2027, unless President Macron uses his constitutional

00:23power to dissolve it.

00:25At the moment, it is unlikely, which means that he will appoint a new prime minister within

00:30a few days, two days, maybe up to a week.

00:34And then that prime minister will have to assemble another minority government that is likely

00:38to fall.

00:39And then I'll come back, as I did for Beirut and Barnier before.

00:43So the situation is very messy, Emmanuel Macron has three options, appoint a prime minister,

00:47very likely, dissolve the National Assembly, it backfired against him last time, so unlikely.

00:53And the third situation, which might be the easiest one to achieve, would be that political

00:57party unite, come together with a solution and say, we want to work with this prime minister.

01:03That's what happened in Belgium, in Germany, in Italy.

01:06The French don't cooperate this way on the political spectrum.

01:09Yeah.

01:10So yeah, a fair prediction there that we might see you back here very soon discussing a very

01:14similar story.

01:16This is against the country's debt crisis.

01:18The prime minister put forward unpopular measures to fix that.

01:22Are there any good alternatives being offered?

01:27Not really.

01:28To be honest, debt has been François Beirut's crusade for decades.

01:33He's been very consistent with this.

01:36And many French are not really convinced.

01:38The debt of France at the moment is €3,500 trillion.

01:46French savings, what people have in this pocket at the moment, are twice as much.

01:51So they're not convinced that France is facing an incumbent financial crisis.

01:58Although François Beirut is right, the budget of the French state has balloon.

02:03And under European legislation, it ought to stand at 3 per cent or under.

02:07Last year, it achieved a 5.9 per cent deficit.

02:11So yes, spending must be reined in, but people disagree on how it should be done.

02:17Some in France suggest that people should be taxed more, the people who've made heavy

02:21profits from COVID, for instance.

02:24Others say, no, actually, everybody should contribute.

02:27And others say, actually, we need to make everyday French people pay spending on Social Security,

02:35on pension, for instance.

02:36So people are divided.

02:38But as soon as he's away, which is, well, he's going to stay as a caretaker prime minister

02:41for a few days, I think the debt issue will just go with him.

02:46Because what matters to the French at the moment is not necessarily the debt issue.

02:50But who is going to be able to deliver a stable government?

02:53Nobody's got the answer.

02:55This is dysfunction on a loop, though.

02:57What do you think can stop it?

03:02That's a very difficult question.

03:03I mean, some people have been asking for Emmanuel Macron to move on and resign.

03:06He's perfectly sane.

03:08He's unlikely to resign until the next election in May 2027.

03:14I think he's just going to appoint a prime minister now to get the budget through.

03:18That needs to be done by October.

03:20And then that prime minister is likely to fall again.

03:22And he will appoint another one to finish his mandate.

03:25And maybe another two.

03:27I think at this stage, calling for a National Assembly election would, one, upset the French

03:32because they've done it 12 months ago.

03:35And two, would further exacerbate the crisis because the House that would be returned would

03:40have a greater number of far-right and far-left people making a centre-left or centre-right or

03:46centre-centre coalition much less likely to govern.

03:51And where are the French people at as they watch this play out?

03:54Now, this is a really good question.

03:56There's something that hasn't been making the headlines here in Australia, is that in

03:59two days, French people, or some French people, have called for a new movement.

04:04You've heard of the Yellow Vest.

04:06They're calling it bloquant tout.

04:08Let's block everything.

04:10Essentially that movement just want to paralyse the country for a few days and maybe more to

04:15advocate for change and reform.

04:18The problem is that it's not led by anyone.

04:20It's very disorganised and it's likely to lead to just stuff being broken in the street.

04:27So Emmanuel Macron has two issues on the domestic scene.

04:30One, appoint a new prime minister.

04:33Two, make sure that in two days, on the 10th of September, things don't go pear-shaped.

04:38And that's on the side of organising a vote for the state of Palestine at the UN, dealing

04:43with Donald Trump with tariff, dealing with Vladimir Putin and his war on Ukraine, and

04:48the grave situation in the Middle East.

04:50So Emmanuel Macron is a very busy man at the moment.

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