00:00The government has to submit this 2035 target this month to the United Nations and it has
00:08to be a lift in Australia's ambition to cut emissions.
00:12The current target submitted to that UN body is for a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030,
00:22already a tough target for the government to reach.
00:25Most recent figures suggest that it's operating at about half the pace that will be needed
00:30to hit that 2030 goal.
00:34So already a tricky position to be starting from for government.
00:39We know that the Climate Change Authority, which provides advice to government on that
00:44next 2035 target, has been looking at a band of between 65 to 75% in reductions.
00:51To give a sense of context, the Climate Change Authority says that a target of about 75%
00:57is needed to be consistent with keeping global warming to about 1.5 degrees Celsius.
01:03We don't know yet where the government is going to land on that, although Climate Change Minister
01:09Chris Bowen said that there are other factors at play, including international uncertainty.
01:15US President Donald Trump has come into power since the CCA began consulting on that picture.
01:23The Climate Change Minister, though, said that unlike 2030, it might not be legislated because
01:29the picture has changed here in Australia too.
01:31It's a government that the world is now more familiar with and while legislating a target
01:36would provide business certainty.
01:38He said he would have to wait and see until after it was announced whether there was a political
01:43pathway that could feasibly see it put into law.
01:47We made the point last time that it does provide greater certainty.
01:50It lets the people, in that context, let the world know that the government had changed but
01:54the parliament had also changed and that was very important in that context of coming in
01:58so soon after that decade of denial and delay.
02:01I think that's much better understood around the world at the moment.
02:04The target is already coming later than the government had originally anticipated and in part
02:09that was because of Donald Trump's election, the Climate Change Authority asked for more
02:14time to consider the changed circumstances with him and with the global picture more broadly.
02:21The government is likely to have international factors influence its timing again.
02:26The Pacific Islands Forum is due to be held early this month and the United Nations General Assembly
02:32is due at the end of the month and so a mid-month, mid-September date for announcing this target is likely.
02:40We also know that the government is due to release its major climate risk report.
02:45It's the first of its kind before that target is announced.
02:49Chris Bowen said it would be sober reading and a stark reminder of the cost of failing to act on climate change.
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