Hopeful grain predictions all hang on frost damage and finishing rains

ABC NEWS (Australia)

With winter coming to a close, Western Australia's grain growers are hoping a gentle spring will help them remain on track to produce another near-record harvest. Analysts predict grain production could go close to 22-million tonnes, but that depends on the extent of frost damage and finishing rains.

Transcript

00:00They're farmers from the north and south of WA's vast grain belt behind the near record

00:08production in the past five years. Kathy Cook farms with her family at Coolia, 240 kilometres

00:16north of Perth. Five hours drive south and grain and sheep producer Craig Newman farms

00:24in the southeastern wheat belt at Varley. Both have had a good winter to start their crops

00:30growing. The simplest way to describe it is I haven't really had to check the rain gauge

00:35that often. Yeah, everything has been really good. Yeah, just a brilliant start and it's

00:41been flowing quite nicely since. Yeah, I'm really happy with how this is potting up,

00:46Mark. It's actually coming along really well. So it's probably got another, I'm hoping, at

00:52least a month of flowering. So flowering's good. That's how we're making seeds. So yeah,

00:58it should hopefully be successful. With nine million hectares of crop planted this season,

01:03the latest monthly grain report indicates WA is on track to potentially deliver almost 22 million

01:12tonnes by the end of harvest. We've only had three years ever of more than 20 million tonnes.

01:20Those three years have all been the last five years. If we hit 22 million tonnes, which is what

01:26it was in 24, we'll have four of our record years in the last six years. But a lot hinges on a

01:32soft finish in spring without extreme cold or heat. Our biggest risk is probably not the dry. We

01:39sort of can work with that. Frost risk is our biggest challenge. It can take a good crop from

01:45a brilliant crop to zero. The Bureau of Meteorology's monthly rainfall outlook for September indicates near

01:52normal rain is expected in most of Western Australia's cropping areas.

01:57So let's talk.

02:02So let's talk about this programing.

02:07You can keep on moving.

02:10So let's talk about this program.

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