Iran sanctions snapback: European diplomats concerned about Russian nuisance potential, expert says

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00:00First, Iran is now facing a renewal of UN-mandated sanctions within weeks

00:05as France, Germany and the UK say Tehran has willfully abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal.

00:11The European countries, known as the E3, offered Iran a delay of the snapback of sanctions

00:16during talks in July in exchange for three conditions,

00:20resuming negotiations with Washington over its nuclear program,

00:24allowing UN inspectors to access its nuclear sites,

00:26and accounting for the over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium

00:31the UN watchdog says it has.

00:33France's Enforced Rachel Griffith reports.

00:37Will Europeans reinstate sanctions against Iran?

00:41Back in 2018, they decided against it after the US withdrew from the Vienna agreement.

00:48Europe and Iran are now accusing each other of not sticking to their commitments.

00:52Western officials have said they suspect Iran has returned to negotiating tactics

00:57aimed at buying time and dragging talks out.

01:00Discussions broke down in Istanbul in July.

01:04The European parties have been at fault and negligent in implementing the nuclear agreement.

01:11We're still following the military aggression of the Zionist regime.

01:14Not only did they refrain from condemning the act,

01:17but through certain statements, they actually attempted to justify the aggression.

01:23Earlier this summer, Israel launched several attacks on Iranian military sites

01:27and assassinated senior military commanders as well as nuclear scientists.

01:33While Iran's enrichment plants were badly damaged or destroyed in the 12-day June war,

01:38the status and whereabouts of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium are unclear.

01:42Europe is now demanding Iranians return to the negotiating table with the United States,

01:48something Tehran has refused.

01:51This issue is unsolvable.

01:53The President of the United States wants Iran to obey America's orders.

01:57The Iranian nation is deeply offended by such a great insult.

02:02Tehran has also not granted the IAEA access since the Israeli-American bombings,

02:08arguing it is not safe for inspectors.

02:10While the United States targeted sites in Fordeaux, Natanz and Isfahan

02:16and claimed to have destroyed its sworn enemy's nuclear capabilities,

02:20the international community is now wondering

02:23what was the real impact of these strikes

02:25and where are the stocks of enriched uranium,

02:28which some experts believe were moved before the bombings.

02:32Negotiations between Tehran and the Europeans last took place in Geneva on the 20th of June,

02:38while fighting was still underway.

02:40Little progress was reported at the time.

02:44Tehran has also warned of a harsh response if sanctions are indeed reinstated.

02:51Well, for more insight on the story,

02:53let's bring in Holly Degrass to the program,

02:55a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.

02:58Holly, great to have you with us.

02:59Thank you so much for your time today.

03:01First, what's the purpose of the snapback mechanism?

03:04Explain to us how this process works.

03:06Well, thank you for having me on the program.

03:11So when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA,

03:16also known as a nuclear deal, was signed in 2015,

03:19in conjunction with it, the United Nations Security Council had a resolution,

03:23UN Resolution 2231.

03:26And in essence, this is a multilateral sanctions regime.

03:29And what was written in was that if Iran was to not abide by the terms of the agreement,

03:35that the signatories to the JCPOA, which at the time included all five world powers,

03:43plus Germany, could then snap back or reinforce United Nations sanctions.

03:49Now, with the U.S. withdrawing from the JCPOA in 2018 under the first Trump administration,

03:54the U.S. no longer has the ability to invoke snapback.

03:58So the thing that's happening now is that the remaining E3, Germany, Britain and France,

04:04are the ones that are keen on reimposing the snapback because of Tehran's violating parts of the agreement.

04:13But Iran says there's no legal basis for the Europeans to reimpose UN sanctions

04:18because the Europeans have not honoured their commitments under the accord.

04:24Well, the angle that Tehran is approaching is that they believe that when the U.S. withdrew in 2018,

04:30that the Europeans did not help Iran violate or circumvent sanctions at the time.

04:37And so that's been a lot of their frustration with the European countries.

04:40But technically, they've been holding their sides to the bargain from the get-go.

04:44And so if any anger should be directed at anyone, it should be Tehran towards Washington from withdrawing.

04:50So I think that's a baseless argument on their part.

04:54So then what kind of impact would reinstated UN sanctions have on Iran and its nuclear program?

05:02Well, for starters, a lot has happened since the original signing of the deal.

05:06Because of the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, it had unilateral sanctions reimposed under the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy.

05:15So over the years, the Iranians have had to make adjustments so that their economy wouldn't be hit as hard by sanctions.

05:23That being said, it still has a big impact on the country, especially the Riyadh,

05:28which has lost much of its worth over the past 15 years.

05:34And so I think what really is going to hurt the average Iranian now is that these snapback sanctions do happen,

05:42is that there will be a skyrocketing of the Iranian rail, and that will hurt their purchasing power.

05:49But to say that it's going to be hurting the economy and other fronts,

05:53it will also reimpose an arms embargo on Tehran, impose travel bans, asset freezes.

06:00But I think here is just how it's going to impact the ordinary average Iranian.

06:05And I think it's really through the purchasing power.

06:08But then how would it impact Tehran's nuclear program specifically?

06:12Well, much of its nuclear program has been heavily damaged during the 12-day war.

06:19We're not actually entirely sure the extent of the damage.

06:23We've had numerous intelligence assessments, ones that are as extreme as President Trump calling it,

06:29saying that it's been obliterated.

06:31But we know that not to be true.

06:33But I think that with the Iranians, it will complicate matters if they decide to rebuild.

06:40And we're not entirely sure if they're already doing that because it's some of what's been buried deep underground.

06:47And so I guess time will tell what they're actually doing with their nuclear program.

06:52And would it be possible to then repeal the sanctions at the UN level?

06:56So what's interesting about these sanctions is that it was written in that there is no veto power.

07:04But the reason that the Europeans are very keen on snapping back sanctions at the end of this month

07:09is because it takes 30 days for this process to happen.

07:12But in October, when actually the sanctions inability to snag back would run out,

07:18is also when Russia will head the United Nations Security Council as president.

07:23Now, because that veto of power has been removed,

07:27it doesn't mean that Russia can't complicate matters and delay the process.

07:31And so that's been some of the worry of European diplomats.

07:35And given that Russia is an ally of Tehran,

07:37it seems very likely that they would do something like that.

07:41And then what could an Iranian response to the snapback of sanctions look like?

07:45And is there any hope for a diplomatic solution once that is triggered?

07:50Well, there was a diplomatic solution today.

07:55And the readout, it seems, from Geneva is that Iran really hasn't decided to actually make some concrete offers

08:02that would satisfy the Europeans, because that's basically what the Europeans have been wanting.

08:08They've been wanting access to the nuclear facilities.

08:11They've been wanting a push for talks.

08:14And that was seen to be the readout from reports so far that the Iranians hadn't been able to deliver on that.

08:21That said, we've also heard the Iranian foreign minister later today say that Tehran would be open to indirect talks with the United States.

08:30But I think the issue here is now, is Washington interested in indirect talks with Tehran?

08:35Because in the eyes of President Trump himself, the program has, quote-unquote, been obliterated.

08:41So it's really not been an important file for him since the war ended on June 24th.

08:48So I think that these are two countries that are at this point talking past one another.

08:55Holly digress from the Washington Institute.

08:58Thank you very much for your analysis and for your time today.

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