Pitching Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Earned Runs for Mikolas

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00:00I'm going to take a look here at a pitching prop here.

00:02I'm going to go in over, not a strikeout prop.

00:04That's an over-earned run prop of two and a half.

00:06And I'm going to go out to St. Louis today with Myles Michael,

00:08who's not a great pitcher.

00:0994 degree temperatures in St. Louis.

00:12This ball should travel.

00:13One thing I don't like today, maybe he comes in for a pinch hit,

00:15is Giancarlo Stanton, who I did have on one of my cards,

00:17said he hit a home run, not in the starting lineup.

00:19It's Christian Rice, Judge, Bellinger, Chisholm, Goldschmidt, Dominguez,

00:23McMahon, and Caballero in the lineup today for the Yankees.

00:27And it's simple to me.

00:28If you look at not being able to strike batters out,

00:31not walking a lot of batters means the ball is going to be in play

00:33at 95 degree temperatures.

00:34That ball is going to travel.

00:36High ISO power numbers against for Michaelis.

00:37I'm going over two and a half earned runs from Myles Michaelis.

00:41It is juicy at minus 145.

00:43But if he pitches five innings,

00:44I expect him to give up three earned runs today, Tom.

00:47He really should.

00:48And, you know, I know you can alt some of these lines, at least on DK.

00:52You can look at some of the all-pitcher props.

00:54Frankly, I'd be interested in over two and a half.

00:56And a part of me wants to be interested in over three and a half.

00:58Just a little, it would be a plus money at that point.

01:01Just a little small piece of that as well.

01:02Because when it's, when it rains, it pours for Michaelis, essentially.

01:06Yeah, it does.

01:07So there we go.

01:08Some pitching props here.

01:09A couple, you know, sell me something props that we can look at here, Tom.

01:12Why don't we get started too?

01:13Because we got some extra time.

01:15Tom's bombs.

01:16Home run props that you want to get down on to.

01:18Three guys, Tom.

01:20Who three are leaving the yard today for you?

01:22Well, we got to turn back to Eric Fetty.

01:25We have to.

01:25So let's go to J-Ram for the Cleveland Guardians.

01:29And, you know, sometimes home run props are a play on the matchup.

01:31Sometimes home run props are a play on the number.

01:34The fact that we're getting J-Ram at plus 400 against Eric Fetty, when we know J-Ram's

01:38going to be batting from the left side, when everyone's going to be batting from the left

01:42side for the Guardians today, we have to be looking at that with a high fly ball rate.

01:45J-Ram with great power.

01:46And, again, it is a play on the number sometimes, not only the matchup.

01:50Next up, let's turn to Byron Buxton at plus 340 versus Chris Paddock.

01:54We spoke about Chris Paddock.

01:56The fly balls are an issue for him.

01:57Yes, there's a little bit of wind blowing in at Minnesota today.

02:00But, Donnie, as you mentioned, the ballpark actually is pretty good when it comes to

02:04containing the wind when it's all said and done.

02:06Buxton at plus 340 is certainly like that.

02:08And then turning to Zach Nando at plus 320 versus Jeff Springs.

02:11While I like Jeff Springs overall, and I did say that I do like the athletics coming with the

02:16win, he does struggle with some iso power numbers against righties.

02:20And Zach Nando kind of matches up well for him.

02:22It's 320.

02:23It's a little bit of a shorter price than I would like, but we have some wind blowing

02:25out.

02:26It's in the mid to upper 70s in there.

02:27When it's all said and done, we have good numbers and good matchups for all three of

02:31these hitters.

02:33There you go.

02:33Some good price points across the board as well.

02:35Now, for me, look, you say, hey, Donnie, we only have like a couple seconds left in this

02:39first segment here for Home Run Derby.

02:41But for myself hitting the home runs and Donnie's dingers, I only got one guy in the

02:45lineup today from what I had this morning.

02:47And it's a guy that we probably felt wasn't even going to be in the lineup.

02:49I love the Alex Bregman's numbers in a crazy hitting environment today.

02:53He's not in the starting lineup today for the Boston Red Sox.

02:56Then Giancarlo Stan in one of the best hitting environments in baseball today.

02:59He's not in that starting lineup, which leaves me with Vinny Pasquantino, who's the one guy

03:03I didn't think would be in the lineup because of his heat exhaustion yesterday.

03:06He's the aging in a great hitting environment.

03:08I tried to play it where pitchers I can fade, Tom, in environments that are hot as all

03:12get out.

03:13And it looks like I only have one of the three.

03:14But you know how that works out.

03:15That means Vinny Pasquantino is definitely going yard today and is going to bail me out

03:19because the other two guys I don't have any chances with.

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