International analyst Ermelinda Malcotte offers an exhaustive analysis of the summit between the US and Russia in Alaska, revealing key details: the presence of economic ministers such as Siluanov and Dmitriev in the Russian delegation shows a shift towards commercial and financial talks, moving away from the military focus of previous meetings. Malcotte emphasizes that the conflict in Ukraine will continue, as Russia will not back down from its demand for irrevocable geopolitical guarantees for its border security. He highlights the renewal of the START Treaty (2026) as a critical priority, while exposing Russia's strategy to consolidate the Moscow-Beijing axis and reduce dependence on the dollar, all in a context of deep mistrust of US neoconservative sectors.
00:00And to go deeper into this context, we now welcome international analyst Ermelinda Malkot.
00:06Thank you, Ermelinda, for joining us in From the South.
00:11Hello, thank you very much for inviting me.
00:14It's a pleasure to have you with us.
00:16And Ermelinda, first of all, what can we expect from this meeting?
00:21Will relevant announcements regarding the situation in Ukraine be announced likely today?
00:26Or is this just one more step in the talks, in the negotiations?
00:32Well, I think it's neither of those.
00:35I think it might be one more step, but it's probably just contact-making between the two presidents of the United States and Russia.
00:46It is interesting when you see, for example, the composition of the Russian delegation.
00:51It gives you an upside of what is going on.
00:56You have, of course, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
01:00You have the foreign minister, Lavrov.
01:03You have the defense minister, Belarusov.
01:05But you also have Dmitriev, which is head of the representative for investment.
01:10And you have the finance minister, Silanov, and also Ushakov, the geopolitical councillor for Putin.
01:21So it is not, if you compare it to the composition of the delegation that was in Turkey, it's quite different.
01:30In Turkey, it was made mostly of military person.
01:33And in that case, you have mostly people concerned with economy.
01:38So it might be a first contact and it will be probably a discussion about economy and economical relations.
01:47So opening and setting the basis of what can be, yes, a first step on things that can be assured and not difficult discussion today.
01:58Interestingly, what you were saying, I was just wondering, so economically and politically, what would be the first effects of a potential end to the conflict in Ukraine, for example, in Europe, but in the world in terms of how will it affect the markets, for example?
02:20What's happening after that?
02:24Well, I think that the end of the conflict in Ukraine is not for tomorrow.
02:28We still have a lot to do because it's obvious that Ukraine is not willing to accept the terms of Russia and Russia is on a forced position.
02:39So the conflict will last for quite a few months, at least.
02:44And because the objective of Russia is to secure its security in the European continent.
02:49So when that is not achieved, the conflict and the war in Ukraine will not end for the overall economic result.
03:00If the world were to end, well, it's forcing a little bit too long because we will be advancing with the BRICS.
03:10We have seen India in capacity to say no to the United States, to the Tariq.
03:19We are having some technical issues and lost contact with Ermelinda Malkar, international analyst that was helping us to analyze, to go over this summit that will take place in just a few hours in Alaska as the president of the United States and the president of Russia are set to meet in Alaska.
03:43We have Ermelinda back with us.
03:45Ermelinda, do you hear us?
03:48Yes, I do.
03:49Excellent.
03:50So you were saying, of course, that if an end to the conflict happens, it will happen in some months.
03:57That, of course, and I think that this point was very important.
04:01The conflict in Ukraine, the objectives of Russia have to do with its own security, and that is not going to change on just some talks with the United States, something that, for example, Donald Trump has insisted on since his campaign, that he had the ability with a few talks to put an end to the conflict.
04:22Of course, it is much deeper than that.
04:25Asking you about what this new stage of relations between the U.S. and Russia means.
04:31How are you looking at this re-approachment?
04:34Well, what happened is that lots of – if we talk about security, lots of the infrastructure that has been built during the Cold War for military and nuclear security in the world has been destructed mostly by the United States.
04:54They have to get out of most of the agreements about nuclear forces, intermediary nuclear forces, et cetera.
05:03So also the START treaty has to be renegotiated, which is a very important treaty for nuclear security around the world.
05:11So I think that those bases might be beginning to be discussed because in February 2026, the START treaty ends.
05:21So I think that on that level, we would have some advances also, maybe.
05:27I mean, not today, but the discussion will be at least on the table for further negotiation.
05:35Then on the discussion of economic relations with Russia and the United States, well, Russia is – they don't trust the United States.
05:45They have been extremely clear on that.
05:47They might have a dialogue with Donald Trump, but they very well know that what they call the neocons, which means the more bellicists of the state, are not willing to have an agreement with Russia.
06:00So they know that it would be very short-term agreement they have with Donald Trump and they put the egg on the brick basket and the multipolar world basket, which they are developing and very actively and also the dollarization.
06:15So this is the – they have discussions, but they are building other things on the side because it's what matters for them.
06:22It's clear.
06:24So finally, Melinda, before we wrap up, I wanted to ask you your opinion on how could these talks impact the rest of the world?
06:33And specifically, I'm thinking of the global south, while Russia is positioning itself as a strategic partner of many countries and most important countries in the global south.
06:44And at the same time, the U.S. is showing a display of aggression against, I'm thinking, for example, Latin American countries in particular.
06:53How are you viewing this contradiction or apparent contradiction?
06:57Well, I think it's an apparent contradiction.
07:01Russia needs absolutely to have those dialogues with the United States because they will be controlling most of the very important part of Ukraine and they want an international recognition and they cannot go for it without the dialogue with the United States.
07:17So they still are an important country, even if they are declining a lot.
07:23So this is why those discussions are about – they want to secure their position in Ukraine and they need to have the United States on the table for that.
07:31But they will – they still are developing the relations with – or bilaterally with the other countries.
07:38And, for example, if you take the recent threat against Venezuela, but also Mexico and Colombia, I think that Russia still is a great ally.
07:49Of course, it's a country that has its own interests and they will work for them first.
07:55But the alliance that has been built between Russia and China, which is a very strong one, is not to be ended easily.
08:04I don't think that the United States can end it.
08:06And this is the basis for a new construction of a multi-polar world.
08:10It is – it will evolve, of course, it's not – it's a transitional situation and the cross-correlation will be determined by also the position of other countries in the south.
08:22But it still is a great ally to have, especially when the – well, the United States is willing to – not willing to end this war and willing to begin new ones.
08:37Thank you so much, Ermelinda, once again, for joining us here in From the South and also allowing us to better understand this situation and its possible impacts.
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