00:00Let's talk now to Dr. Anastasia Plyovsky, the Senior Lecturer at King's College London.
00:05Welcome, good to see you.
00:07What are the key areas where India is trying to reduce dependency?
00:14Well, I actually think that India is, Modi is trying to appease his crucial electorate in these statements
00:24rather than actually trying to decrease dependency.
00:28He is addressing the agrarian sector, the farmers, the peasants who constitute two-thirds of the country
00:36and who nearly voted him out of office and his party out of a majority.
00:42He had to form a coalition last year because Modi's party, and Modi in particular,
00:52have been very poor at economics that favors the farmers.
00:57So now he is facing elections in Bihar, one of the crucial agrarian states that has historically gone back and forth from one to another party.
01:09And the tariffs that Trump now threatens India with are politically extremely sensitive, right?
01:17So that's what's going on.
01:18I think we really need to differentiate between public rhetoric and what's happening behind the scenes
01:24and the kinds of concessions that Trump is making Modi make in terms of buying Russian crude vis-a-vis the threat of these tariffs,
01:35which would hurt very, very badly because even though India's trade with the United States is about 18 percent.
01:46It's sizable, but it's nowhere near even a major sort of portion of the market.
01:53The things that India trades, the things that India sells to the United States are very much agrarian.
02:01So there's rice.
02:02It's also textiles, not just rice and spices, but textiles.
02:08And that will really hurt.
02:10So there's talk if Trump actually imposes those tariffs.
02:14There's talk of GDP dropping by 3 to 4 percent.
02:18But crucially, this is incredibly sensitive for Modi.
02:22So whoever gave Trump that piece of advice to impose tariffs on India, in particular, knew Indian politics very well.
02:31This is an internal political matter for Modi.
02:34Given that internal political matter, let me look more broadly then and ask you about the wider landscape.
02:41I mean, how significant is this tariff dispute for the broader U.S.-India strategic relationship?
02:49Now, if Trump was to impose those tariffs, it would really strain a relationship that's strategically crucial for both India and the United States.
02:58So for the United States, India is the key partner in the Pacific that allows the U.S. to have a major presence in a region vis-a-vis its major strategic opponent in China.
03:14So it's really important.
03:16And it would be a very bold move for Trump to strain the relations with that absolutely crucial partner.
03:27For India as well, relations with China have been fraying.
03:32So over the past couple of years, there have been clashes on the India-China borders.
03:40Those have been calmed down.
03:41And while military relations with China have cooled, at the same time, India and China have grown their trade.
03:50And that has shifted since Trump's arrival over the course of 2025, China, which Modi was actually drawing Chinese engineers.
03:59He was drawing in the Chinese both to invest in the infrastructure project,
04:04but also to bring their engineers to build up India's crucial infrastructure and to help it industrialize.
04:12Because given climate change, given India's vulnerability to climate change, the industrialization is absolutely essential.
04:20And Modi actually quietly, while being strategically opposed to China, was building that relationship.
04:27But that has shifted this year.
04:29And China is now viewing India as an opponent.
04:33As companies in the United States and Europe and Germany, major players in Europe,
04:40are shifting their production to India or looking to shift their production to India,
04:45China is seeing them as an opponent, not as a sort of underling anymore.
04:51So China, for instance, has just withdrawn 300 engineers from India.
04:55It has held up the export of urea, crucial to India's agricultural life, to India.
05:04It has opened it to other parts of the world, but not to India.
05:06So there's a growing tension between India and China, both on the military front as China sort of nears Russia,
05:14while India is moving away very rapidly from Russian military supplies and Russian military calibers.
05:23Dr. Pilavsky, we're chasing time.
05:26I'm so sorry, but we have to end it there.
05:29Thank you so much for coming on the program.
05:30And good to see you, Dr. Anastasia Pilavsky, Senior Lecturer at King's College, London.
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