00:00Tampa Bay, Adrian Hauser will be on the mound here going up against Brian Wu of the Mariners.
00:05Four o'clock start today, heavy favorite for the M's, opened up overnight time, minus 180s, they're gone.
00:10Minus 190s, up to minus 200s in the marketplace, but a low total of seven and a half.
00:15Let's get the party started today.
00:17Tampa's in Seattle, Seattle's red hot.
00:19Does that red hotness continue today?
00:23I think it has to.
00:24I don't know how we can look at a team like the Mariners with the lineup that they currently have and with the matchup of versus Adrian Hauser, who granted and credit to him, he was super solid at the beginning portion of the year, but he has slowed down significantly since then.
00:41Some of his recent game logs are absolutely terrible.
00:43So when we're looking at this lineup from top to bottom, Donnie, I think we have to go Cal Raleigh, Naylor, Suarez, and probably Polanco if you're looking for an HRR combination.
00:56Now, Brian Wu on the other side, you know, frankly, I think he could go six innings, nowhere in runs, pile up the strikeouts versus the Rays.
01:03I'm not going to say it's a, you know, zero in runs is like the guarantee for him, but like a solo shot from Brandon Lau or something wouldn't surprise me.
01:11But a 24.8% strike rate, a 4.6% walk rate is not allowing anyone on base.
01:16The home runs are there for him with 1.35 on the season.
01:19So a solo shot here or there wouldn't shock me, but Mariners win.
01:23They put up six runs and they win this game six to two.
01:26If we look at Adrian Hauser, right, on the season, he's got some pretty good statistics, but that's on the season.
01:31Let's start to get up that focal point on that microscope here.
01:3421st on my card today, a 279 ERA over the past 45 days.
01:37You love that, right?
01:38Who cares about ERA?
01:39That X-fifth number is a 4.28.
01:41Also, if you take a look at his game log, we had a lot of good starts here and a lot of low numbers.
01:46Let's focus on his last three.
01:48Four and a third innings pitched, 10 hits and four runs given up.
01:51Start number two, six and two thirds innings pitched, only five hits, but still three earned runs.
01:55His last start against the Angels in Anaheim, five and two thirds innings pitched, 11 hits and five earned runs and not a lot of strikeouts here.
02:02The reason I bring that up is, yes, we're going to be in a very good pitcher's ballpark, but also this.
02:06Seattle at 81 degree temperatures today.
02:08Now, it does say a 10-mile-an-hour wind blowing in from left field.
02:10If you ever watch the Seattle game, it's a retractable dome, which means that you don't have grandstands in the left field that are like 10 feet high.
02:17They go way up there.
02:18Can block a lot of those line drive home runs that you see time and time again up at T-Mobile.
02:22But hear me out on this.
02:23So many times you look at the lineup, and Tom is right.
02:25There is a lot of power and a lot of great weighted on-base percentages here.
02:28But if you just go back to the last month in Major League Baseball for the Seattle Mariners lineup that we anticipate today, going up against right-handed pitching, the hard contact rate and the barrel rate, Tom.
02:37If we start with the barrel rate, right?
02:38Like, 10% is really good in Major League Baseball.
02:41A Rosarana, 16%.
02:43Cal Raleigh, 17%.
02:44Rodriguez, 14%.
02:46Naylor, 13%.
02:47Suarez, 18%.
02:49Polanco, 12%.
02:50Canzone, 17%.
02:52Cole Young, 9.4%.
02:53Eight of the nine batters, at least right around that 10 or higher.
02:56Hard-hit contact rate.
02:58Every single guy in the lineup makes hard contact over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching.
03:02Like, we're not – you can't guarantee things will happen, but I know where Tom's going with six, which is way higher than their team total.
03:08Like, those should be the anticipations today.
03:10Like, Hauser, good pitcher, leaking oil.
03:12Mariners, red-hot, hard contact, barrel rate, through the roof.
03:15Only downfall, it is a pitcher's ballpark.
03:18But again, 80-degree temperatures in Seattle, that's like the equivalent of 100 degrees in New York.
03:24It really is.
03:25And, you know, the thing I would say in this scenario is, like, A, the Mariners are hot, like you said, but, like, if not now, when?
03:31Like, if you can't come through when you're this hot at the plate and you can't come through against this type of pitcher, like, what other type of matchup would you be doing against?
03:39Because he's struggling right now.
03:41This is, like, as we always talk about, like, this is the perfect puzzle piece.
03:44Like, the Mariners are doing exactly what we want against Hauser, who is struggling with exactly what the Mariners are good at.
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