00:00Let's get up to the Yankees.
00:01Entertaining game yesterday.
00:03Starts out interesting.
00:04Middle of the game interesting.
00:05Yankees pull it out at the end in a much-needed win over the Houston Astros.
00:09They're going to take on the Astros, say, with Alexander on the mound
00:11going up against Max Freed, the left-handed pitcher for the Yanks.
00:149-15, 9-16 on the rotation, a 135 start,
00:17and a monster favorite here for the Yankees.
00:20Overnight, Tom, minus 185s.
00:21They're gone.
00:22They're all over.
00:23Minus 200 or higher, depending on which sports book you're checking into,
00:26and a total that's listed at 9.
00:28This isn't the Max Freed that we got at the beginning of the year, though, Tom,
00:31and he's a $2 favorite today.
00:34This line's crazy.
00:36Like, this is a crazy line for the Yankees.
00:39And, yes, Max Freed, compared to Jason Alexander,
00:43not talking about George Casanza,
00:44like, Max Freed is a substantially better pitcher than him.
00:48There is absolutely no doubt about it.
00:50Alexander's been in the minors for nearly a decade
00:52and has barely been able to break through to the majors.
00:54He's just not a major league quality pitcher,
00:56and he's been there because of the injuries that the Astros have had.
00:59As I said at the top when it comes to the Yankees,
01:01starting pitching, hitting, fielding, bullpen.
01:03The Yankees never get all four of those,
01:06or even three of the four on a game-by-game basis.
01:08Can you get the starting pitching from Max Freed,
01:10who has kind of slowed down over the past few starts from?
01:13Sure.
01:13Are you going to get hitting against Alexander?
01:15Maybe.
01:16Are you going to get fielding and bullpen work from the Yankees
01:18to warrant being a $2 favorite that you can trust Devin Williams
01:22coming out of the bullpen for the Yankees?
01:24Absolutely no way.
01:25If there's a side to take, it's the Astros and the over.
01:29If we look at Max Freed, and again, started out,
01:32it's like, woof, they paid him a lot of money, no doubt about it.
01:34He's a really good starting pitcher.
01:36He came to the Yankees like,
01:37I'm about to be better than Garrett Cole in this place.
01:39No big deal.
01:39And of course, we know that Garrett Cole didn't even make it out of
01:41spring training without getting arm surgery.
01:43But let's just take a look, Tom, at his last.
01:45Let's just see one, two, three, six starts here, right?
01:48Six innings pitched, four earned runs.
01:49Five innings pitched, three runs.
01:51Three innings pitched, four runs.
01:52Five and a third innings pitched, six runs.
01:54Six and two thirds innings pitched, four runs.
01:56Five innings pitched, four runs.
01:58Like, he's not that shutdown guy.
02:00Like, you're actually approaching it as if it is, I don't know,
02:02the Colorado Rockies on the 14-game roads, you know,
02:05where it's actually a flyaway game back to home.
02:08It's like, they're just going to be dead in the water.
02:09Like, this is an Astros team that probably should be able to hit Freed.
02:12And if you said more price appropriate,
02:14Yankees are always going to get that tax week added.
02:16Yankees aren't playing great baseball right now.
02:18If that price point was minus 150, minus 155, I might bite on that.
02:22But minus 200.
02:23And again, Tom, you're right.
02:24Like, Alexander's on the mound.
02:25The Yankees should absolutely hit today.
02:27But no way, shape, or form.
02:29I'm taking a pitcher that's giving up four runs a start saying,
02:32you know, I'm comfortable with laying a minus 200 or higher.
02:35No, and like you said, it's partly just Yankees tax or, you know,
02:39any tax for, like, even popular teams.
02:41Again, a 150 price, like you said, I could talk myself into.
02:44We could have a conversation about backing them because of Freed.
02:48Or maybe it's just the first five at that play.
02:49But over a $2 favorite on Freed and a bullpen that's been terrible.
02:54Like, if the Yankees don't come through with five runs today,
02:57objectively, a horrible game for them.
03:00I don't care what Freed does.
03:02You're right.
03:0290-degree temperatures in the Bronx.
03:04They light wind blowing out.
03:05No excuses for the Yankees here.
03:06And here's some of the reason why.
03:07Because numbers just aren't pulled out of a hat.
03:09I would say, oh, the Yankees, let's just put them at 200 because fans will bet them.
03:12Like, Max Freed has not been good, but he's a left-handed pitcher.
03:15I know it's a small sample size with the Houston Astros here, Tom,
03:18but their last 30 days, I'll just give you the ISO power numbers of their players.
03:21Pena, zero.
03:22Correa, 071.
03:24Walker, zero.
03:25Diaz, 062.
03:27Cam Smith, zero.
03:28Caratini, zero.
03:29Urias, 071.
03:31McCormick, 071.
03:32So you have one player, and there's Jose Altuve,
03:35that's holding his own against lefties.
03:36And again, it's not 50, 60, 70, 80 at-bats.
03:38Most of these guys in the teens and early 20s,
03:40they just don't hit left-handed pitching.
03:42And maybe just banking on Tom,
03:44they're not going to hit left-handed pitching today in the Bronx.
03:47And that's really what it comes down to.
03:48You're hoping that the Yankees get at least four runs across the board against Alexander.
03:53Freed gives you six innings with only two earned runs.
03:56And then the Astros just can't come through against the Yankees' bullpen,
04:00which has been struggling.
04:01And you're also hoping that the Yankees don't make any errors
04:02and give up two free runs.
04:05So that's what you're getting if you're betting on the Yankees.
04:07And you've got to be ready for a wild ride.
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