00:00Thank you. Colby Smith with the New York Times. Two of your colleagues called for a quarter point cut today, and I'm wondering what aspects of their argument were most compelling to you, and how you're weighing their views against those on the committee who, as of the June forecast, were in the camp of the Fed holding interest rate steady for the remainder of the year. And just in terms of the June SEP in particular, is that still the best representation of where the core of the committee is?
00:29So on the dissents, you know, what you want from everybody, and also from a dissenter, is a clear explanation of what your thinking is and what are the arguments you're making. And we had that today. So I think basically this was quite a good meeting all around the table where people thought carefully about this and put their positions out there.
00:52As I mentioned, you know, sort of the majority of the committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target, maximum employment is at target. That calls for modestly restrictive, in my way of thinking, modestly restrictive stance of policy for now.
01:08But we had two dissenters who, I think, you know, you want that clear thinking and, you know, expression of your thinking. And we certainly had that today, I think all around the table.
01:21In terms of, you asked about the June SEP, you know, I wouldn't, you're right, that's what it says. And that may well, I couldn't point to it six weeks later as expressing people's thought.
01:36You really can't do that. We don't run an SEP, and I don't like to substitute in my own estimate of what the SEP might be. We don't have one.
01:43So I'll just say that, you know, we haven't made any decisions about September. We'll be monitoring all the incoming data and asking ourselves whether the federal funds rate is in the right place.
01:53And just on the point about policy being only modestly restrictive, does that mean that there's actually not much scope to reduce rates once the conditions for a cut are met, barring a significant weakening of the labor market?
02:04So let me say, my own estimate is modestly restrictive. And there are a range of views of what the neutral rate is at this moment for our economy.
02:14And so others may say it's more restrictive or less restrictive, even. You know, we're going to be, at some point, when we return to moving toward a more neutral stance, we'll be making that judgment as we go.
02:29I don't think we have a preset course. It's not so mechanical as saying, you know, we've derived with great confidence the neutral rate, and that is our destination, because really, we understand that no one actually knows what the neutral rate is.
02:41We know it by its works. And that will be how the way the economy reacts over time to, you know, to slightly looser policy.
