00:00There's always something to talk about this time of the year, although we're kind of hedging our
00:04bets against development over the next few days. So what's going on out there? Yeah, well this time
00:09of year we really look close to home. That term that we always talk about, homegrown tropical
00:13development. A lot of times you're looking on the end of a cold front, looking for a little bit of
00:17spin to kind of initiate off of that. We saw that last week with our tropical rainstorm that we were
00:22tracking into Louisiana, and we're tracking a similar feature right now, a cluster of showers
00:27and thunderstorms moving across the Gulf right now. Low chance of development, and then way out in
00:31the tropical Atlantic, east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical wave coming across the Atlantic with a
00:36low chance of development on that guy. All right, so our eye is drawn a little closer to home, as you
00:41mentioned. You can find that swirl. It's kind of a disembodied circulation, not a very obvious one,
00:46but when you look at the satellite loop near the Gulf Coast, what jumps out to you? Yeah, I mean,
00:51similar to what we saw last week, I see a cluster of showers and thunderstorms trying to get organized,
00:56but the problem that we're dealing with here is that it's so close to land, and so the fact that
01:00it's so close to shore, it really disrupts that circulation and kind of prevents development,
01:05which is certainly good news. There's also a lot of wind shear in this area as well, which is
01:09helping to keep this thing from getting organized. Again, we saw this last week happen with that
01:16tropical rainstorm that was moving through the area, and then this time looks like much of the same
01:21thing. It has a brief window, I think, tomorrow where it could try to organize before moving into
01:27the coast. You can see this kind of blow up of thunderstorms during the day tomorrow as it's
01:31approaching the Texas coast, but I think it's maybe a 10 percent chance that we would get a
01:36depression or a low-end tropical storm out of it. It just runs out of time here, and actually it's
01:40going to be to Houston's benefit. 100 for the first time of the year yesterday, 99 today, I believe,
01:45is our forecast. We're dropping to 90 to 91 with the increased showers and cloud cover tomorrow.
01:51So impacts, how much rain are we really looking at here? Yeah, it looks like maybe a couple of
01:55inches in spots. Not everyone will get a couple of inches. It's going to be pretty localized. Again,
02:01I think it's going to be less than what we saw with the last tropical rainstorm that we were tracking
02:05through this area where we had reports in Louisiana of four to eight inches. I think overall amounts
02:11will be less than that, but there could still be local amounts of three, four, five inches
02:15anywhere in this green highlighted area. And big pictures. We zoom way out to kind of the seasonal
02:21perspective. Right now, again, we throw a lot of data and graphics out there sometimes. We're in the
02:27early part of the hurricane season, so we have three separate pie charts. On the left, it's neutral.
02:32We're not under an El Nino or La Nina. We're looking at the water temperatures off the equator,
02:38near the equator in the Pacific. How do we expect this to evolve, and how could that impact things in
02:42the Atlantic basin? Yeah, well, you can see the left pie chart all grayed out. That means right
02:46now we are 100% chance of being in a neutral pattern. We're there right now. Middle of the
02:51hurricane season, so we would say beginning of September, about a 75% chance we're still going
02:56to be in that neutral pattern. And then, though, look at the right pie chart. You can see the blue
03:01area increasing. That's La Nina, a chance of a La Nina coming on late in the hurricane season.
03:06What that would do is it typically would allow for more favorable conditions for tropical
03:12development. Usually, we see less wind shear overall during a La Nina event. So this is
03:17similar to what we saw last year, where we saw La Nina conditions start at the end of
03:21the hurricane season. And I think we saw three named storms during the month of November.
03:25So we could see much of the same, but this is the area that we're looking at. This boxed
03:30region, you can see Hawaii there in the top center of your screen there. But this boxed area,
03:35this is the El Nino region. So when we talk about El Nino, that's when this area is warmer
03:40than average. And when it's a La Nina, it's cooler than average. So you would see more
03:44blue. But right now, you can see kind of a mix of orange and blue in that area, indicating
03:49more of a neutral pattern.
03:51All right. So moving forward, we do expect things to ramp up quite a bit. We've had one
03:55impact so far, three relatively short-lived storms. But the forecast is still on track.
03:59Alex?
04:00Yeah, again, this is June and July, early in the tropical season. We don't typically expect
04:04that much activity. The heart of the hurricane season is really the month of September into the
04:09beginning of October here. But much like what we saw last year, we could see this transition
04:14towards a La Nina late in the hurricane season. Look out for a potentially active end to the
04:19hurricane season. I could see several storms during the month of November. Usually November
04:24is a fairly quiet month with about one storm every two years or so. But last year, I think
04:29we saw three storms. So look for an active end to the season all the way through. So that's
04:35why we are sticking to our numbers right now. We've seen three named storms so far. But
04:40we have a lot more to come during the hurricane season, I think.
04:43AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DeSilva. Alex, you do a great job. Thanks again for
04:47joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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