00:00This year's Atlantic hurricane season forecast just took a turn.
00:03Top hurricane expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team
00:06have trimmed their storm prediction from 17 to 16 named storms for 2025.
00:12Why the change?
00:14It all comes down to a hostile Caribbean atmosphere.
00:17Powerful wind shear, that's when wind changes speed or direction with height,
00:21is making it harder for storms to form and grow.
00:24Only three tropical storms have formed so far, and none have reached hurricane strength.
00:28Still, this season is predicted to be slightly above average with eight hurricanes expected,
00:33down from nine originally forecast.
00:36So what's keeping things active?
00:38Warmer-than-usual Atlantic waters are creating fuel for storms,
00:42even though they're not as hot as last year's record levels.
00:45And in the Pacific, things are neutral, no El Nino or La Nina,
00:49which usually makes Atlantic storms more likely.
00:52Here's the bottom line.
00:53There's a 48% chance a hurricane hits the U.S. coast this year.
00:57A major hurricane in the Caribbean?
00:5953% chance.
01:01Even small storms can still cause big damage,
01:04like Chantal, which brought deadly floods to North Carolina.
01:07So don't let your guard down.
01:09It only takes one storm to change everything.
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