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00:00foreign
00:30obviously a history
00:32conversion is completely history
00:34and it is a choice that
00:351989 has seen that Russia
00:38is the one that has been
00:39Afghanistan on the top of it
00:41and then the Taliban
00:43of the government
00:44and then the Taliban
00:46and now the Taliban
00:48and now the Russian
00:49which has been
00:50Afghanistan on the top of it
00:52which has affected
00:54global politics
00:55and particularly
00:56the trade
00:58which has been
01:00larger alliances
01:02and trade roots
01:03which has been
01:04this entire
01:04GFTAGOU
01:05for us
01:07today there are two
01:07men who have been
01:09in Washington DC
01:10which has joined
01:10Adam Weinstein
01:12which is Deputy Director
01:14Quincy Institute
01:15and one with a academic
01:17Germany
01:18which has joined
01:19which is a faculty member
01:21which is a faculty member
01:25which is a larger framework
01:27global design
01:28which is a legislative framework
01:30which is a particular aspect
01:32that will be legal implications
01:33Thank you very much
01:35Adam
01:35for joining us
01:37at this program
01:38with this monumental
01:39sort of
01:39and dramatic move
01:41simultaneously
01:42from the Russian state
01:44by recognizing
01:45the Taliban
01:45which many perhaps
01:47thought that was
01:48not a possibility
01:49for a very far future ahead
01:51but what do you think
01:53that in terms of
01:54recognition for the Taliban
01:55governance systems
01:56in Moscow
01:57at this time
01:58why this time
01:59in particular
01:59what was the need
02:00for this
02:01I mean although
02:02it has been welcomed
02:03from several places
02:04as well
02:04but in terms of
02:07a strategic move
02:07what is this actually
02:08implied to
02:09well I think
02:11the strategic move
02:12is that
02:12Russia wants to
02:13deepen its economic ties
02:15with Afghanistan
02:15build pipelines
02:16potentially use it
02:17as a transit hub
02:18give it access
02:20to Pakistan
02:24and also India
02:25for its own trade
02:28why this exact timing
02:29I'm not sure
02:30but I think
02:31the motivation
02:32is economic
02:33so when you say
02:35that it's economic
02:36obviously the Central Asian
02:37republics play
02:38a very dynamic role
02:40in the entire
02:41spectrum of things
02:42do you think
02:43that the next
02:43should be
02:44the Central Asian
02:45republics
02:45the cars
02:46who would be
02:46sort of moving
02:47in with similar moves
02:48well I think
02:50this opens the door
02:51for regional recognition
02:53I mean
02:53let's face it
02:55there's been
02:55a de facto recognition
02:56there's at least
02:5717 embassies
02:58inside Afghanistan
02:59that are operating
03:00you have some countries
03:01like China
03:02where Xi Jinping
03:03is receiving
03:04a Taliban ambassador
03:06receiving his credentials
03:07but then saying
03:08well this isn't recognition
03:09so there's been
03:11this de facto recognition
03:12where countries
03:13are acting
03:14as if there's
03:15normal recognition
03:16they're receiving
03:17Taliban ambassadors
03:18they have their embassies
03:19running
03:20but they're saying
03:20it's less than recognition
03:22I think this opens
03:23the door
03:23for calling a spade
03:25a spade
03:25and saying
03:27okay we recognize
03:28that this is the government
03:29in Afghanistan
03:30but we've seen
03:31a lot of debate
03:32in the UN
03:33General Assembly
03:34the plenary meeting
03:35that's been taking place
03:37for the last couple of days
03:38we've seen
03:39the United States
03:40in particular
03:40saying that
03:41the Afghan Taliban
03:42need to stop
03:43acting like an insurgency
03:45we've seen
03:46you know
03:47some of Russia
03:48and the US
03:50and Israel
03:51vetoing a movement
03:52that was stable
03:53we've also seen
03:54Pakistan coming back
03:55and saying
03:56almost in a similar tone
03:57to say that
03:58the Afghan Taliban
03:59are a de facto government
04:00but they do not need
04:01to allow
04:02other groups
04:03that could actually
04:04potentially be
04:05securely hazardous
04:06for its neighbors
04:07and saying
04:08that there were
04:086,000 Afghan
04:09Pakistani Taliban
04:10that were under
04:11Afghan Taliban's influence
04:14and operating
04:15from Afghanistan
04:15but do you think
04:17that the security
04:18challenges
04:18the Afghan Taliban
04:19government
04:20is
04:20act for it
04:21do you think
04:22that they have
04:22a holistic control
04:23in the country
04:24at this point
04:24well I think
04:26they do have control
04:27that's the problem
04:28which is that
04:29despite their control
04:30they haven't reigned
04:31in TTP
04:31and now they
04:32have some trouble
04:33controlling ISKP
04:35but I don't really
04:36buy that they
04:37couldn't do more
04:38against TTP
04:38the problem
04:39is precisely
04:40because they do
04:41have control
04:41and they're choosing
04:42not to exercise it
04:43but also
04:46because you've been
04:47a Syria watcher
04:48for quite some time
04:49as well
04:49so when we look
04:50at fringe actors
04:51you know
04:51like Hayat
04:52Harir al-Sham
04:53and now
04:54obviously
04:55they're the
04:56government
04:56a recognized
04:57government
04:57within Syria
04:58as well
04:58you've seen
04:59like this week
05:00the US
05:01lifting sanctions
05:02and also
05:04removing the names
05:05from the list
05:05of banned
05:06organizations
05:06how Syria's
05:10trajectory
05:10has flown
05:11differently
05:11and why is
05:12the Afghan Taliban's
05:13case a little
05:13different from that
05:14yeah it's interesting
05:16I mean the sanctions
05:17were formally lifted
05:19and HTS
05:21was delisted
05:22as an FTO
05:23although I think
05:24Al-Shara himself
05:24is still
05:25designated
05:26as an individual
05:27but it was
05:29the same week
05:29that Reuters
05:30published an article
05:31an investigation
05:32actually
05:34that found
05:34that the 1500
05:35or so
05:36Alawites
05:36who were killed
05:37that massacre
05:39that happened
05:40on the coast
05:40of Syria
05:41back in March
05:42actually had
05:43direct links
05:43to the government
05:44in Damascus
05:45I mean
05:46you can imagine
05:47that if something
05:48similar had happened
05:49at the hands
05:49of the Taliban
05:50there would be
05:51much more outrage
05:52but I think
05:52for the United States
05:53and for Europe
05:54Syria is just
05:55more important
05:56it's more strategic
05:56because of its borders
05:58with Israel
05:59because of its borders
06:01with Iraq
06:01because of its borders
06:02with Turkey
06:03which is a NATO member
06:04and so
06:06you have this
06:08feeling in the west
06:10that well we have
06:11to give the new government
06:12in Syria
06:12a chance to succeed
06:14you don't have
06:14that same feeling
06:15towards the Afghan Taliban
06:16at least not from the west
06:18but regional countries
06:19they have to deal
06:20with the Taliban
06:21so there's more motivation
06:23to recognize them
06:24and take Russia
06:25for example
06:25although earlier
06:26I said that
06:27a lot of the motivation
06:28was economic
06:28there is some security
06:29motivations as well
06:31I mean
06:32ISKP is a serious threat
06:34to Russia
06:34as we saw
06:35in its ability
06:36to attack that concert hall
06:38in Moscow
06:38Russia has every reason
06:40to work with the Taliban
06:41against ISKP
06:43but that's why
06:44you see differences
06:45the differences
06:46I don't think
06:46have to do with
06:47legal standards
06:48or which group
06:49is more fringe
06:50or which group
06:51has been more responsible
06:52it has to do
06:53with the relative
06:53importance of Syria
06:54to the west
06:55versus Afghanistan
06:56so Afghanistan
06:57we do not see
06:59you know
06:59in terms of the priority list
07:01or topping the list
07:02that Syria
07:02now more important
07:03but do you see
07:05the cause of Afghanistan
07:06because we've seen
07:07almost even this morning
07:08UNAMM giving out
07:09a very
07:10you know
07:11different statement
07:12from yesteryears
07:13in which it's actually
07:15calling off
07:16a bigger humanitarian
07:17crisis in Afghanistan
07:18now
07:18with particular
07:19reference to
07:20you know
07:20the refugee crisis
07:21from Iran
07:22about 730,000
07:24from Iran
07:24and about 280,000
07:26from Pakistan
07:27now
07:27the settlement plans
07:29if Afghanistan
07:30does not sort of
07:31get a recognition
07:32and the funds
07:33do not start
07:34flowing in
07:36once again
07:36the larger humanitarian
07:38crisis could actually
07:39lead to a bigger
07:39security crisis
07:41yeah I agree
07:43with that
07:44I mean
07:44Iran has
07:46scapegoated
07:46Afghans
07:47especially with
07:48the recent war
07:49with Iran
07:50I mean you saw
07:50that some in the
07:51Iranian state
07:52were accusing
07:53Afghan refugees
07:54of being spies
07:55for Israel
07:56which I think
07:57is a ridiculous
07:57accusation
07:58but in any case
07:59they're sending back
08:00hundreds of thousands
08:01of Afghans
08:02and Pakistan
08:03has also
08:04in the last
08:05several months
08:05I think
08:05sent back
08:06a quarter million
08:07Afghans
08:07so you see
08:09this influx
08:10of Afghans
08:10and I agree
08:11if they're going
08:11back to a failed
08:12state that's not
08:13recognized
08:13that's going
08:15to be a problem
08:16and if the world
08:16really does care
08:17about Afghans
08:18they need to
08:18accept the reality
08:19that the majority
08:20of Afghans
08:20live in Afghanistan
08:21and they need
08:23to live in a state
08:23that has
08:24recognition
08:25now one last
08:26question before
08:27I let you go
08:28we've seen
08:28that the Afghan
08:29Taliban have also
08:31opened up its doors
08:32for more
08:33dissident elements
08:34that have previously
08:35opposed Afghans
08:36and we've seen
08:37a number of
08:38NRF
08:39as well as
08:39those commanders
08:40which were
08:40previously part
08:41of the uprising
08:42asking them
08:43to return back
08:44to Afghanistan
08:44this morning
08:45about 30
08:46most wanted
08:46individuals
08:47to the Taliban
08:48have also
08:48returned after
08:49negotiation
08:49we've also seen
08:50the Afghan Taliban
08:51particularly focusing
08:52on previous
08:54jihadist elements
08:55such as
08:55Ustaz Sayaf
08:56to be called
08:57back to Afghanistan
08:58saying that
08:58it's purely
08:59secure for him
09:00and they offer
09:00guarantees as well
09:01do you think
09:02that that
09:02consolidated
09:03sort of a push
09:04aims at a more
09:05larger inclusivity
09:06that the world
09:07is aiming at
09:08I think
09:10it's
09:11probably a good
09:13step for the
09:13Taliban's own
09:14ability to
09:16control the
09:16country
09:17but when we
09:18talk about
09:19inclusivity
09:19I mean the
09:20number one
09:20reputational issue
09:21for the Afghan
09:22Taliban
09:22is the women's
09:23issue
09:23if women
09:24are going to
09:25school in some
09:25capacity
09:26that's going to
09:27continue
09:27to be a
09:29thorn in their
09:29side
09:29and every time
09:31there's an effort
09:31by western
09:33countries
09:33to perhaps
09:34recognize them
09:35there's going
09:36to be an
09:36uproar
09:37by civil
09:38society
09:38groups
09:39about that
09:39issue
09:40more so
09:40than this
09:41kind of
09:41inclusivity
09:42that you
09:43mentioned
09:43in fact
09:44that's another
09:44reason that
09:45there's a
09:46different approach
09:47to Syria
09:47the view in the
09:50west is
09:50well however
09:51bad al-shara's
09:53past might be
09:54the majority
09:56of Syrians
09:56welcomed him
09:57with open arms
09:58and women are
09:59still going to
09:59school and
10:00there's even a
10:01woman in his
10:01cabinet as far
10:02as I know
10:02so you
10:04know you
10:04see him
10:05meeting with
10:05women that
10:05that's the
10:06number one
10:07issue but
10:08I think the
10:08kind of
10:09granting of
10:11clemency and
10:13sort of
10:13willing to
10:15welcome back
10:16former enemies
10:16is good for
10:17the Taliban
10:18itself in
10:18terms of their
10:19ability to
10:20consolidate power
10:21I don't think
10:21it's going to
10:22make a huge
10:22difference in
10:23terms of
10:23whether the
10:24rest of the
10:25world particularly
10:25the west
10:26recognize those
10:27as them
10:27for that when
10:28the west says
10:29inclusivity I
10:30think they mean
10:31including more
10:32hazars in
10:33government
10:33more
10:34more
10:35more
10:36tajiks
10:36and more
10:37women
10:37frankly
10:38thank you
10:39very much
10:39adam for
10:40this
10:40detailed
10:40sort of
10:41a discussion
10:41ناظرین
10:42یہ گفتگو
10:43آپ نے
10:43سنی
10:43اس کو
10:43بعد میں
10:44summarize
10:44کریں
10:44گے
10:45ابھی
10:45time
10:45ہوا
10:46ہے
10:46ایک چھوٹے
10:46سے
10:46break
10:46کے
10:47بات
10:47واپس
10:48آتے ہیں
10:48اور
10:49بات
10:49کرتے ہیں
10:49ایک
10:50اور
10:50ایکسپیٹ
10:50کے
10:50ساتھ
10:51کہ
10:51جو
10:51طالبان
10:51کی
10:52ریکنیشن
10:52ہے
10:52جو
10:53ان کو
10:53کہا گیا
10:54ہے
10:54کہ
10:54آپ
10:54کی
10:54government
10:55recognize
10:55ہے
10:55موسکو
10:56کے
10:56اندر
10:56اس کے
10:57legislative
10:57اور
10:57legal
10:58implications
10:59global
11:00order
11:00کے لئے
11:00گیا گیا
11:01ہیں
11:01آپ
11:01ہارے
11:01ساتھ
11:02رگئے
11:02گا
11:02ہمارے
11:08پاس
11:08اس
11:08time
11:08پر
11:09ایک
11:09legal
11:09expert
11:10جیمینی
11:10سے
11:10موجود
11:11ہیں
11:11جو
11:12faculty
11:12member
11:12ہے
11:13فیڈریک
11:13شلرب
11:13یونیویسٹی
11:14کے
11:14اور
11:15global
11:16legislative
11:17order
11:17ہے
11:17اس
11:18کو
11:18دیکھتے
11:18آتورو
11:19ب very
11:20much
11:20for
11:20taking
11:20out
11:21the
11:21time
11:21for
11:21joining
11:21us
11:22i
11:22just
11:22wanted
11:22to
11:23ask
11:23you
11:24know
11:24in
11:25terms
11:25of
11:25the
11:25recognition
11:26from
11:26moscow
11:27and
11:27when
11:27they
11:27say
11:28that
11:28we
11:28recognize
11:29the
11:29talibans
11:29government
11:30the
11:30rest
11:31of
11:31the
11:31governments
11:31do
11:32sort
11:32of
11:32have
11:33an
11:33understanding
11:33by
11:34calling
11:34it
11:34a
11:34de facto
11:34governance
11:35system
11:35but
11:36do
11:36not
11:36recognize
11:37it
11:37what
11:37sort
11:38of
11:38legislative
11:38barrier
11:39does
11:39that
11:39create
11:40or
11:40an
11:40anomaly
11:41within
11:41the
11:48context of the taliban government we have to remember that this government was already in
11:54place before the u.s illegal war under international law and russia was one of the countries that never
12:04ceased to have a embassy a working embassy in the ground of kabul so for the matter uh what russia
12:12is doing now is just um recognizing uh the reality on the ground in on a legal basis so
12:20they never cease to have contact with the government of the taliban back in the day then
12:25with the government of the transition or the post-taliban government and now they are doing
12:30that officially and the implications of this move are mostly internal of course moscow wants to give
12:38a signal to the world and of course this is a in a context of iran uh war with israel which has a
12:47boundary with uh with afghanistan yeah so what russia is doing is officializing the legal relationship
12:56that they already had with the government of the taliban and like uh lavrov said the foreign
13:02ministry of russia in terms of economic and and exchange uh relationships so this move is going
13:12to give the legal national legal frame for the russian government to deal officially and to make
13:20agreements mostly on on commerce and and anti-drug and anti-terrorism activities with the government of
13:29kabul but when we talk about this i mean then this only means from what i understand what he's saying
13:36is that this legal framework only provides uh space and vacuum for russian authorities to have that kind
13:42of relationship it does not mean anything in the largest sphere of our understanding in the global
13:47matters as well am i correct in saying that yes in a sense actually russia is not the only one doing
13:53this uh actually china and some other nations in the of the east have function embassies although they
14:01don't recognize the taliban government officially they still have function embassies on the ground
14:07and actually also some important governments of the west are trying to get near to the government of
14:14the taliban especially the place where i'm living in germany and we have to remind that the first
14:21refugee crisis that went from this area of the world to europe was afghan wave after the illegal war
14:28from the united states so this was a big implication from germany and now the foreign minister of
14:34germany is seeking contact with the taliban government so they will agree to expatriate uh criminal
14:41the so-called criminal people from afghanistan living in germany so because they had to stop the
14:47expatriation process of the taliban arriving power and now governments like germany and probably other
14:54ones in europe will follow are seeking this legal official recognition or at least under the table
15:00recognition so they will be able also like russia to formalize uh jury um legal activities and so
15:09international i i just want to interrupt over here because we're short on time but i want to ask this
15:15question is because a larger context of this obviously revolves around the counterterrorism
15:20and the economic part of how to deal with the abban taliban does this actually pose still a barrier
15:27for being unrecognized by other countries or not particularly the economic part well it's it's an
15:34economic move of course like i said they want to uh officialize uh relationship commerce relationship with
15:40the taliban and at the same time they want to give a signal to other countries to be open to do this
15:45and just to acknowledge the the facts on the ground that the taliban are holding indeed the power and
15:51they're still uh in charge of a country which is strategically important not only for the commerce but
15:58also in terms of diplomacy because it's a it's a crossways to a lot of economies and the access from
16:04russia or to russia to the to the east to the far east and especially to iran so i think russia is
16:10moving in these two ways officially working as an illegal national frame but also trying to invite
16:17some other countries to do the same should i understand this by saying that uh the afghan banks
16:23would now be able to transact only with russia and not anyone else well it's as we have to
16:29re although also remember that the u.n security council put on some strict sanctions to afghanistan
16:36in terms of of commerce uh after they took over of the taliban when the american troops left over
16:42just as as as well as iran is suffering under this strict sanction so for the afghan government there is
16:48a common interest to to participate in this new road or new trade road that they could open between russia
16:56and asia and also to iran as a connection connecting factor thank you very much
17:02atoro thank you for your time and this detailed explanation nاظرین گفتگو آپ نے ہماری
17:06دو مہمانوں سے جو ہے وہ سنی آدم وائنسٹین سے اور atoro سے کہ afghan
17:11taliban کی recognition جو ہے obviously یہ ایک geostrategic move تو ہے لیکن
17:16russia کی جانت سے afghan taliban کی recognition جو ہے ایک larger economic move ہے جس
17:21کے ذریعے خطے کے اندر russia اپنا influence جو ہے وہ بڑھانا چاہتا ہے despite the fact
17:26کے اس move کے اثرات جو ہوں گے وہ globally تو اتنے زیادہ نہیں ہوں گے جو
17:31افغانستان کے وہ channels کھول سکے جس کے ذریعے باقی ممالک کے
17:34ساتھ trade جو ہے وہ نہ ہو جب تک کہ ان کی formal recognition نہیں ہوتی لیکن
17:38obviously اس کے اندر جو regional trade ہے اور جو رشیہ کا کردار ہے اس کو
17:43ضرور جو ہے بڑھاؤ جو ہے وہ ملے گا اسی طرح کی interesting topics کے
17:47اوپر جو ہے وہ گفتگو آگے پروگراموں میں بھی جو ہے وہ جارے رہے گی ہمارے
17:50ساتھ رہیے گا اور دیکھتے رہیے گا border talks
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