00:00Just as markets breathe a sigh of relief over the Israel-Iran ceasefire, another storm is brewing,
00:05the trade war. Morgan Stanley warns that uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high,
00:10with July 9th marking a critical deadline for negotiations following President Trump's 90-day
00:15pause on reciprocal tariffs. There are three key reasons why tariffs are about to re-enter
00:20investors' focus. First, geopolitical tensions have overshadowed the trade war, but as those
00:26risks subside, trade will likely take center stage. Second, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be
00:33lagged. Economists cautioned that recent cool inflation data might not last, predicting a
00:38potential pickup later this summer as tariff effects materialize. Finally, this lagged impact
00:44could complicate Federal Reserve policy. While markets and President Trump clamor for lower
00:49interest rates, resurgent inflation could force Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to keep rates steady.
00:54Powell has previously stated that tariffs will ultimately lead to higher inflation,
00:59with the burden falling on the end consumer. With pressure from both the White House and Capitol
01:04Hill, the Fed faces a challenging landscape. With no meeting scheduled for August, observers suggest
01:10officials might be more inclined to act in July, setting the stage for a critical decision that could
01:15shape the economic future. Money Explainers
01:19to the
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