ADOBE : L'Action Tech INDISPENSABLE à Acheter en 2025 ? (+ Mon Analyse Choc)

Antoine CH

Découvrez pourquoi Adobe (ADBE) pourrait bien être L'Action Tech INDISPENSABLE à Acheter en 2025 ! 🚀 Dans cette analyse complète, je plonge dans les fondamentaux financiers d'Adobe, son positionnement unique sur le marché du logiciel, et ses avantages concurrentiels indéniables.  Sommaire de la vidéo : 0:00 - Introduction 0:18 - L’entreprise & son business 4:30 - Analyse des fondamentaux 7:27 - Valorisation & verdict  Restez connecté et apprenez davantage : Ma dernière vidéo : https://youtu.be/Au79Wolrdek ▶️ Mon portefeuille : https://youtu.be/T85S9_R9L-c 📖 Une autre analyse d'action : https://youtu.be/f6uJW_RLauw ▶️ Rejoignez ma communauté sur TikTok : https://www.tiktok.com/@antoine_pastime?_t=ZN-8xMX03z5RKA&_r=1 👋  Besoin d'un Accompagnement Personnalisé pour Vos Investissements ? 🚀 Atteignez vos objectifs financiers avec un coaching sur-mesure ! Que vous souhaitiez démarrer en bourse, optimiser votre portefeuille ou affiner votre stratégie, je suis là pour vous guider. Contactez-moi dès maintenant pour discuter de vos besoins :  📧 Mon Email : chapasantoine@gmail.com  Rejoignez la Communauté et Ne Manquez Aucune Analyse ! 🔔 Abonnez-vous à la chaîne pour ne rater aucune de mes prochaines analyses de portefeuille et conseils d'investissement : https://www.youtube.com/@antoinechapas/videos 👍 Laissez un pouce bleu si cette vidéo vous a été utile ! 💬 Partagez vos impressions et vos propres performances en commentaire ! Comment votre portefeuille a-t-il traversé cette semaine ?  #Adobe #ADBE #InvestissementTech #ActionADBE #AnalyseBourse #PortefeuilleAction #Investir2025 #Logiciel #TechBourse #Finance

Transcript

00:00Adobe is more than just a software company; it's been a cash machine for over 20 years.

00:05So today we're going to try to answer the question, is it still time to invest?

00:09Or conversely, is the market right to sell the stock?

00:12Today I'm showing you the key figures, the company's true potential, and whether or not I should buy this company.

00:18So we begin, Adobe, whose real name is Adobe Inc., is in the technology sector.

00:22Its ticker is ADBE and it is listed on the Nasdaq.

00:25It was established in 1982 and since 2007 Shantanu Narayan has been the CEO of this company.

00:32Its capitalization is 171.22 billion dollars, which makes it a large cap.

00:36It operates in the software development sector with three main branches.

00:40Creative Cloud, which represents 57% of the turnover, is its main tool

00:45which represents all the graphic creation tools like Photoshop, Premiere or Illustrator.

00:50Its second is Document Cloud with digital document management and signing.

00:54such as PDFs, contracts, etc.

00:57And finally its third branch, Experience Cloud, which is a software platform with numerous solutions

01:01such as CRM, site personalization, campaign management, marketing analytics and all integrated.

01:08Its value proposition, as you will have understood, is therefore an integrated and personalized ecosystem

01:12ranging from marketing to business tools and AI in SaaS on the cloud

01:17and which is flexible according to the solutions needed to obtain better prices.

01:21That is, a customer can decide to buy only Photoshop

01:25but he can also buy Photoshop plus the Experience Cloud software platform, etc.

01:30And so that allows for very significant customer retention of over 90% for Adobe.

01:35In terms of revenue, 93% comes from subscriptions to frequently updated platforms.

01:40and 7% comes from additional and premium services.

01:43Regarding its sales, 17% come from Document Cloud, 57% come from Creative Cloud

01:49and 26% of Cloud Experience.

01:52And finally, for geography, 67% come from America, 14% from Asia and 26% from MEA.

01:58For the Moat, it has a clear advantage: it is a fluid ecosystem with complementary tools.

02:03which is reinforced by the strong integration of AI which improves efficiency and user experience.

02:10So there we already have a very high switching cost.

02:12We also have barriers to entry and exit that are quite severe,

02:16software development costs and cloud infrastructure that are very high,

02:20innovations protected by patents that last for several years

02:23and also a loyal user base with high retention, as we have seen, more than 90%.

02:28So this makes the arrival of new competitors and new entrants into the market complex.

02:33And finally, we haven't had any super investors since 2023.

02:36We previously had Terry Smith who came out with a loss on Adobe

02:40but we do have very reputable funds like Vanguard, BlackRock or State Street.

02:45In terms of its strengths and weaknesses, the company is the undisputed leader in creative software.

02:49with more than 90% market share and in particular due to strong recognition among customers.

02:56It also has a recurring revenue model that allows it to generate ultra-stable income over time.

03:00and growing steadily.

03:02She also took an excellent turn on artificial intelligence

03:06with potential competitors like ChatGPT for example

03:09who eventually became partners.

03:11She integrated them into her product offering and into Firefly, her personal AI,

03:16to make it an advantage.

03:18So I also really like the fact that he sees AI as a tool.

03:21and not a replacement for the core business at the artist level.

03:25However, it also has weaknesses.

03:27In particular, it has strong pricing power, which is interesting,

03:30but which could limit the clientele over time,

03:33especially among small businesses and individual individuals.

03:37It also has software that is becoming increasingly complex for a beginner to understand and learn.

03:42It also has opportunities and threats.

03:45In particular, it could develop simpler tools, suitable for beginners.

03:49It could also massively integrate AI into all its products, across its entire offering.

03:53And it could finally position itself as a leader in emerging countries like China or India,

03:58which have caused marketing budgets to explode in recent years.

04:01However, there are also threats to the business, including strong and growing competition,

04:05whether in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud or Experience Cloud.

04:08She may also have difficulty keeping up with new technologies,

04:12notably perhaps disrupted by artificial intelligence.

04:15And it could also increasingly attract regulators in the face of overly advantageous acquisitions,

04:20like Figma in 2022, which was finally banned in 2023.

04:25And so, today, the business could not buy Figma.

04:28We now move on to the fundamentals and the valuation of the company.

04:32So we find ourselves on my Adobe screener.

04:34First of all, all the criteria are in the green.

04:36So, very good fundamentals with positive revenue growth, well over 10%.

04:42Free cash flow growth of more than 12%, 13, 14, 21 over 10 years.

04:47Growth in free cash flow per share will also be higher than growth in free cash flow.

04:53So, that means share buybacks and therefore no shareholder dilution.

04:56We'll see about that later.

04:58At the gross margin level, we have an increase in this gross margin.

05:01The operating margin is the same.

05:02A very significant margin is increasing.

05:05And finally, a net margin greater than 30%.

05:07It's absolutely monstrous.

05:08A real cash machine and one that is also growing.

05:12As for the free cash flow margin, it is also increasing, except for the current year.

05:1528% instead of 29% 5 years ago.

05:18So, be careful with that.

05:19But normally, these are still extremely high margins.

05:22Then, the return on investment.

05:24So, the ROC to free cash flow.

05:26It is also increasing and is over 30%.

05:29So there, too, it is extremely high.

05:31There are also share buybacks of 1.2 and 1.8%.

05:35And we also have an acceleration of these share buybacks.

05:38So, no shareholder dilution at all.

05:41We have SBC to free cash flow which are slightly decreasing over 5 years, but a little more significant over this year.

05:47So, 23%.

05:48It remains very slightly above 20%.

05:50And I think it's reasonable between 30 and 40%.

05:54So.

05:54So, in the end, SBCs to free cash flow which are not excessive either.

05:58Our CAPEX to free cash flow ratio has gone from 13% to 9.8%.

06:02And this year, we are at only 2.3%.

06:05So, increasingly lower CAPEX expenditures.

06:07Especially because it's a SaaS model.

06:09And so the company develops this software.

06:11And once she has integrated them into her offer,

06:14Well, she has nothing left to do except improve them from time to time.

06:17At the level of net debt to free cash flow,

06:19it would take half a year 10 years ago to repay with free cash flow.

06:23And today, it takes less than half a year.

06:25So, absolutely no debt.

06:27It's really not a problem.

06:28And finally, for the 10-year performance,

06:30we are at 17.7% over 10 years.

06:32So, well above the S&P 500.

06:34On the other hand, 1.9% over 5 years and less than 17% over one year.

06:38We see in particular that over 5 years,

06:40Adobe is a company that is not really loved.

06:43We have a lot of difficulties.

06:44In particular, this first drop follows,

06:47let's say, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia

06:49which, in turn, caused a 60% drop on Adobe.

06:52So there, a very strong drop which has suffered enormously.

06:55She's really come back since the beginning of 2023, let's say.

07:00And on the other hand, since the beginning of 2024,

07:02there, we are on a strong decline.

07:03It's complicated.

07:04The company that is being heavily attacked by investors.

07:07There are a lot of shorts on the company.

07:09So here we are, we will try to understand

07:11if precisely, in view of the current valuation,

07:13It may or may not be a very interesting investment.

07:16knowing that, well, we are still looking at prices going up to 400 dollars,

07:20knowing that the all-time high is around $670 or so.

07:25So there we are, very, very high.

07:27So if we go back to the valuation,

07:29I entered the company ticker,

07:31its number of shares, its cash and its debt,

07:33and the current cash flows of the stock.

07:36And I also put a 13% trade discount,

07:38that is to say the performance that I wish to achieve.

07:40So 13% per year over the next 10 years.

07:43And so, I set a price to free cash flow of 22.

07:46So why 22?

07:47Quite simply, when you look at the history,

07:49there, currently, we are at 19.14 times the free cash flow.

07:52But we saw that we were much higher in recent years,

07:55around 30, 40 minimum.

07:57Really from 2013 to 2022.

08:00So for more than 9 years,

08:01we are removed above 30 times the free cash flow.

08:05So 22 seems relatively correct to me.

08:07We would be located roughly here.

08:08So slightly above what happened in 2023

08:11and a little higher than the average before 2013.

08:14If we look at 20 years,

08:16we see that there was a big dip below 20.

08:18But the business was really completely different.

08:21So it has nothing to do with today.

08:23That's why 22 still seems relatively interesting to me.

08:26for the company today.

08:27And so, we would need growth in free cash flow.

08:30to try to get an optimal purchase price.

08:32And so we would tend towards 9%.

08:34So, 9%,

08:35we would be on an undervaluation of 3.39%.

08:38A purchase price of $415

08:40and therefore a current price of $401.

08:42We can even go down to 8.5% I think.

08:45to drop to $403 purchase price

08:49and therefore the current price at $401.

08:50So what would make, for 13% growth,

08:53a very good deal at Adobe level.

08:56So we have just seen that the price to free cash flow is 22

08:58is relatively justified and quite weak

09:00compared to history.

09:01But on the other hand, is the growth in free cash flow reasonable?

09:05Well, we'll be able to see that in the transcripts.

09:07If we take Q1 of 2025,

09:09so the Q1, not the most recent,

09:11but the one just before,

09:12we had a 10% turnover growth,

09:14which is still quite interesting.

09:16And if we look at Q2,

09:17we had a turnover growth of 11%.

09:19So in the end, a reacceleration this year 2025

09:22with better than expected profits,

09:25better than expected turnover

09:26and above all guidance,

09:27that is, better than expected forecasts

09:29for the year 2025.

09:31So in the end, Adobe seems to be doing well,

09:33to massively integrate artificial intelligence

09:36to its figures and its product offering.

09:38And so in the end, 11% growth in turnover

09:41to achieve 8.5% growth in free cash flow,

09:44It seems perfectly honest.

09:46So there you have it, we have just seen that Adobe is a company

09:48of excellent quality and if it succeeds

09:50to achieve its growth objectives,

09:53therefore 8.5% of free cash flow growth

09:55and a price to free cash flow in 10 years of 22,

09:58Well today the stock would be a good buy.

10:01to achieve 13% growth.

10:03So in conclusion, Adobe is evolving in the sector

10:05creative software and digital marketing solutions,

10:08expanding markets

10:09and strongly driven by the rise of AI.

10:11It offers a complete and integrated suite of products

10:14creative, documents and cloud experiences

10:17used by millions of creators,

10:19of companies and brands around the world.

10:21This strong presence and the quality of its tools

10:23ensure remarkable customer loyalty

10:25and an extremely solid recurring revenue base.

10:28It also has very robust fundamentals,

10:30of a strong operational leverage effect

10:32and a strategic positioning at the heart of structural trends

10:36such as digitalization, generative AI or cloud marketing.

10:39Its valuation is quite reasonable.

10:42I would even say that it represents a very good and interesting opportunity.

10:45given its long-term potential

10:47and that's why I currently have Adobe

10:49bought for roughly around $395 in portfolio

10:53and so to follow on Friday's videos

10:56where I check up my wallet.

10:58Anyway, it was Antoine.

10:59Don't hesitate to give me your opinion.

11:01If you also buy, sell or strengthen the company

11:03Following my analysis, don't hesitate to like and subscribe.

11:06It was Antoine.

11:07Hello.

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