Mon Portefeuille : +192% sur CETTE Action ! Indices & 7 Fantastiques

Antoine CH

25/06/2025

Dans cette vidéo check-up hebdomadaire de la bourse, plongez au cœur de ma stratégie ! Découvrez l'action tech sur laquelle j'ai renforcé ma position de +192% et les raisons derrière ce mouvement significatif. C'est une décision qui illustre ma conviction sur les perspectives de cette entreprise majeure.

👉 Chapitres de la vidéo :
00:00 Intro
00:26 Indices US/FR & climat de marché
05:50 Les 7 fantastiques
09:03 Mon portefeuille d'actions
09:58 Résultats Adobe Q2 2025
14:52 Conclusion

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L'analyse d'Adobe : https://youtu.be/H98I5tusb9w
L'analyse de Medpace : https://youtu.be/f6uJW_RLauw
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Éducation

Transcription

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00:00Hi everyone, we're back for our Friday video, which, as usual, consists of a check-up of my indices, my values, and my portfolio.

00:07So in terms of indices, we will mainly look at the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the CAC 40.

00:12In terms of values, we're going to look at the Fantastic 7 today, but don't hesitate to tell me in the comments if you want other values,

00:19It could be LVMH, Air Liquide for example, stocks that you like.

00:23And then we'll look at my portfolio and how it's changed, particularly with a new purchase.

00:27So we start directly with the indices, the S&P 500, which had once again crossed the 6,000 point mark.

00:32Last week I told you that there really needed to be an upward catalyst.

00:36In the end there were several, we had in particular solid business results,

00:40but also a resumption of negotiations between the United States and China, which had therefore mainly boosted the tech sector.

00:47And also favorable macroeconomic data, which suggested little risk of rate hikes, at least for now.

00:54But otherwise, with today's Friday news, it won't last in my opinion.

00:59We still have Israel and Iran, which are in very high tension, and also new customs duties which are expected to be applied on July 9 by Donald Trump.

01:06So we'll see what happens, but in any case the S&P 500 may well correct in the coming days.

01:11As for the Nasdaq 100, it also reached 22,000 points on Wednesday before falling back slightly and even a little more aggressively there,

01:19since today we fell a little bit because of Israel and Iran.

01:23Also for the same reasons, corporate results, trade negotiations which have really boosted tech and obviously the semiconductor sector in particular.

01:32and therefore macroeconomic data which were very favorable.

01:35But as I was saying, whether it's the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, for the moment we don't really know what it's going to be like.

01:40We are entering a new period of uncertainty and even tension, which could potentially harm both indices a little.

01:46So graphically, we see this famous fall of almost 1% today in the S&P 500 following the announcements between Israel and Iran.

01:54Over the month, we are still on a positive performance.

01:57We saw that we had exceeded, as I told you, 6,000 points for the space of one or two days.

02:02And there, we fell back below 5,985 points.

02:06Over 6 months, we are therefore at a 1% drop in performance.

02:08Well, we are rather at a stagnation.

02:10We always see these famous customs duties.

02:12Over the year, we remain positive, plus 2%.

02:15We can clearly see that the S&P 500 has touched 6,000 once, 6,000 twice and 6,000 three times,

02:20obviously hoping that it continues upwards, even if with valuations which are still quite high,

02:25As I often say, I would be surprised if the S&P 500 rose to 6,500, 7,000 points.

02:29It still seems very, very complicated to me, not to mention speculative bubbles.

02:33And so, over a year, we are at 10.13% performance, 10.10% at the time I speak.

02:38Well, there you have it, a performance that remains quite decent over a year,

02:41but a potential correction could change this balance a little.

02:45In any case, over 5 years, the S&P 500 remains extremely strong, with a performance of 96.75%.

02:51And if we look at the Nasdaq, well, exactly the same thing.

02:54So we have almost minus 1%, minus 1.1% underperformance.

02:59We had reached 22,000, as I said, on Wednesday, before falling back slightly.

03:04And there, we went down again a little bit slightly.

03:07This gives us a negative performance for the week.

03:09Over a month, we are at plus 2.27% performance, which is still quite interesting.

03:14Over 6 months, minus 0.47%.

03:16There, exactly like the S&P 500, we are in a phase of stagnation compared to 6 months ago.

03:21And so, over a year, plus 3.36% all the same.

03:24So the Nasdaq is doing quite well this year.

03:28And then there you have it, over a year, 10.74%, exactly like the S&P 500, almost two indices which follow each other very partially, which have roughly the same variations.

03:38And over 5 years, on the other hand, we have a Nasdaq index which is performing very well, 124.33% in 5 years.

03:44It's a very good performance in any case.

03:46We therefore end with the CAC 40 which had gone above 7800, which had almost reached 7850, but which ultimately, as the weekend progressed, only decreased slightly.

03:58A bit like the Nasdaq in the end.

03:59And which, at the moment, is below 7700, therefore at 7672 points.

04:05With a performance over the week which is still quite negative, minus 1.59% over 5 days.

04:11Over a month, that gives us minus 2.56%.

04:13So the CAC 40 is having a little more trouble getting by than, for example, our American counterparts the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

04:20Then, unlike the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the CAC 40, over 6 months, had a positive performance, 3.58%.

04:27We see that it was below 7500 points 6 months ago, at the end of December.

04:32And today, we are around 7675, which gives us a performance over one year, at least since the beginning of the year, of 3.8%.

04:40So a performance almost like the Nasdaq.

04:42The American index is slightly underperforming compared to the CAC 40.

04:47And so, over one year, a 0.43% drop.

04:50There, it's immediately less interesting.

04:52We see this kind of range with a kind of small height passed at 8000.

04:56And in the end, the customs tariffs that arrived and suddenly, a total range almost of the CAC 40.

05:02This is mainly due, as I said, to customs duties, mainly, which will resurface.

05:07But also to tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.

05:11And also because of the macroeconomic data that is coming in.

05:15So, there is a real caution on the markets in France, before the ECB, the unemployment figures, etc.

05:22Over 5 years, we end up with a performance of 58.65%.

05:27It still remains above 10% per year.

05:29So it's very interesting for the CAC 40.

05:31So we always see this little period of rise, hop, a little fall, rise, hop, a little fall, rise, hop, a little fall.

05:37And so, we've been in a range phase for some time now.

05:41But in the end, the CAC 40 is not doing very well this week.

05:44But in the medium to long term, we are still looking at a completely reasonable performance.

05:48So no need to worry about that.

05:50As for values, Apple, at WWDC, presented its famous liquid glass design and updates to Apple Intelligence.

05:59Unfortunately, the lack of major new developments in AI, mainly due to its delay in Siri, for example,

06:05Well, it disappointed investors.

06:08And so, that rather led to a drop in the title.

06:10Microsoft, on the other hand, is supported by solid prospects for its cloud services and artificial intelligence solutions.

06:16So the stock has actually moved up quite a bit this week.

06:19Amazon, for its part, saw its stock stagnate following a rather quiet week, with no particularly specific news.

06:25Alphabet, so Google, which, despite an antitrust trial currently still ongoing, well, saw a small increase,

06:33This is due in particular to an American senator who bought Google shares and thus restored a little confidence in the company.

06:39Then there's Meta, which saw its stock fall this week.

06:43So, for the moment, it is the investors who are paying more attention to the advertising sector in relation to the Google trial,

06:48before, well, imagining growth potential and prospects for Meta.

06:53So there, they are waiting a little while to see that there are no new regulatory problems with Google and Meta.

06:58As for NVIDIA, it recorded a significant increase, notably due to the optimism still linked to artificial intelligence.

07:05and in particular due to Oracle's good results this week, which would have been very interesting in terms of artificial intelligence,

07:12a box that makes a lot of money.

07:14And finally, Tesla, which has seen a very significant increase, more than 5% this week,

07:19supported by rather positive anticipations regarding the launch of its famous robot taxi in Austin, Texas.

07:25So graphically, we find ourselves on Interactive Broker, a Microsoft, as I said,

07:30which at the end of last week had not exceeded these famous 468 dollars and which today has largely exceeded them.

07:36We beat that famous all-time high, so that's very interesting.

07:40Then, Google, which had also increased slightly this last week,

07:45as I was telling you, because of, or rather thanks to, the American senator who bought shares in Google,

07:51which restored a little confidence in the company.

07:53Then, Meta, who, as I told you, has rather stagnated this week,

07:57with a company that has rather stagnated in relation to, let's say, the wait-and-see attitude on advertising values in general,

08:05including Google and Meta.

08:07Amazon, therefore, which also stagnated.

08:11There was no specific information about Amazon.

08:13There isn't much to say in particular.

08:17Tesla, on the other hand, which, as you can see, has increased significantly this week,

08:20even if there, therefore, we are on a negative performance today.

08:23In the end, we made a little more than 5%, roughly.

08:26We went to 315 dollars, a little bit above, so,

08:29notably thanks to these famous positive anticipations on Texas and on robotaxis, in particular, from Tesla.

08:38And finally, we will be able to go to Apple.

08:40$197, which fell slightly, with disappointments, let's say, among investors in Siri and new artificial intelligence solutions.

08:50And finally, Nvidia, which is down a little today, 1.80% less,

08:56but which, over the week, increased slightly, still following this famous optimism about AI.

09:01That's all for values.

09:02Now we move on to my wallet.

09:03So my portfolio, today, right now, is 23.6% stocks, so $2,058,

09:10and the rest in cash, $6,672, with two positions still in place, one of which I increased by 192%.

09:18So, that represents a big reinforcement.

09:20As you can see, here it is, 1158 euros on one share, 900 euros on the other, well, it's dollars, obviously,

09:26and therefore $6,672 in cash.

09:28At the Medpace level, therefore, my first value, as you will have understood, is Adobe that I have reinforced.

09:34But at the Medpace level, there is not much to say, so much the better, I want to tell you.

09:37So, we don't necessarily have any news about the company.

09:41It's a company that's quite discreet.

09:42It just went from $294 last week to $300 this week.

09:46So, we're back to where I bought it, which was $300.26, if I'm not mistaken.

09:52But otherwise, not much to say about the company.

09:54On the other hand, if we talk about Adobe, there, we have things to say, which went from 417 dollars to 385 dollars,

10:02especially because she posted her results.

10:04So, its results, with a record turnover of 5.870 billion,

10:09so up 11% compared to the same quarter last year.

10:12This is super interesting.

10:13Operating cash flow of $2.19 billion,

10:17which is a record for a second quarter.

10:19So, that, same, super cool.

10:21Strong growth in AI adoption with traffic up more than 30% compared to last year.

10:27So, there are also some very interesting figures.

10:30And with x2 in particular, so 100% more paying subscribers.

10:34So, here too, there is very strong adoption in terms of AI.

10:38And also, a piece of information that seemed very interesting to me to share with you,

10:41plus 75% student access to Adobe tools.

10:45So, that too is very interesting because Adobe has high switching costs.

10:49When you train someone on this software, it's difficult to change afterwards.

10:54So when it's students who are going to try Adobe,

10:56who are really going to take Adobe training,

10:59Well, in 5, 10, 15 years, when they are in the job market,

11:03there, it will immediately be more complicated to disrupt this switching cost, broadly speaking, that Adobe has created.

11:09Then, as for the company's guidance,

11:11They were, like the results, above expectations.

11:13They are therefore expecting total revenues of between 23.5 and 23.6 billion dollars.

11:19so, for this year 2025.

11:21So, this is the upper end of the previous forecast.

11:25And earnings per share, also between $16.3 and $16.5,

11:29which are also part of the high range.

11:31So potentially, an improvement maybe in margins or whatever the business is.

11:35We'll see.

11:36And as for the words of management,

11:38So, they tell us that it is really the only actor capable of combining monetization

11:42between creativity, marketing and AI on a large scale.

11:46So, that's very interesting.

11:48They also specify that they have intellectual property that is guaranteed on their innovations.

11:52So, that too, very important.

11:54Growth that is healthy in their two key segments.

11:56So, Digital Media, I believe, which grew more than 12%.

11:59And Digital Experience which grew by more than 10%, sorry.

12:03Which, in turn, brought us to more than 11% growth.

12:06And share buybacks of $3.5 billion this quarter.

12:11So, potentially, a sign of undervaluation.

12:13This is why I, personally, have strengthened this company.

12:17And so there's still $10.9 billion of share repurchases that have been granted.

12:23So, there you have it, Adobe still has massive amounts of stock to buy back.

12:26In any case, this, in my opinion, reinforces its stable technological value profile.

12:29with growth levers in AI, for example, which are major.

12:33As I said, we have a 30% increase in traffic compared to last year.

12:37These are figures that are extremely important and interesting.

12:40and who must continue in this trend.

12:43So we find ourselves on Interactive Broker, my broker.

12:46And there, if we go, suddenly, to my wallet,

12:47you see that, therefore, we had 3 Medpace shares.

12:50We're still at 3.

12:51And we had an Adobe stock.

12:53We are now at 3 Adobe shares.

12:55The company lost 5.3%.

12:58However, the moment I bought it back,

13:00we were at minus 7.2%, if I'm not mistaken.

13:04So, that's really the bottom of the bottom of the basket.

13:06So, that's very cool to have bought, there you go, in the short term,

13:09a stock at its lowest point of the day.

13:12This is very interesting.

13:13And that gives us, suddenly, a profitability of 0.46%.

13:16Knowing that we were more on minus 3 or 4%

13:18compared to my purchase which was around $400, right here.

13:23So, here you can see that following the decline,

13:24I bought very lightly.

13:26Which means that today we are at $1,175 on the company.

13:30with, as a result, a stock that is still doing relatively well.

13:34There you go, I reinforced it because I still wanted to

13:36put a little more than $400 into Adobe.

13:39And I think that $1,200 is almost enough.

13:43So, we are on a cost basis of $1,170.

13:46So, that's very interesting.

13:48This is what I need.

13:49I don't wish for more.

13:50And I will reinforce it later if we go down, for example, to around 340 dollars,

13:55360, etc., etc.

13:57As for MedPace, today we are at minus 1.6%.

14:00We're at $299.

14:03Which, in turn, gives me less than 0.28% profitability on my purchase.

14:08But I didn't necessarily strengthen it.

14:09So, I had already invested $901 in the company.

14:13So, I found that it was not necessarily interesting to reinforce an action

14:16who, in the end, didn't do much this week.

14:20If we had, for example, if we had rather gone down to around 290,

14:25or even $270, there, I would have gladly increased.

14:29But there, in the end, in fact, we are still on this kind of range.

14:33As you can see here, we are in a range of MedPace stock that is not moving too much.

14:36So, I have nothing to do in the meantime.

14:39So, there you have it.

14:40Not much to tell you about MedPace.

14:41So much the better, as I said earlier.

14:43It's an action that doesn't make too many movements, that just goes its own way.

14:46So, there you have it.

14:47It's always interesting.

14:48I have an average price of $300.46.

14:50Not much to say about it.

14:51So, here is my portfolio which will have increased slightly, notably due to Adobe's results.

14:56And so, in conclusion, we can say that today, the stock market, even if it falls a little by a few percentages,

15:01Well, the stock market, generally speaking, is doing well.

15:04Today, optimism is still there.

15:05However, it should be noted that the problems have not disappeared, particularly for the coming weeks.

15:10We still have customs duties coming, especially on July 9.

15:13There are still tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine, for example.

15:17We still have debt problems in the United States, etc.

15:19But as you can see, on the Fear and Greed Index, we are at 61.

15:23So, rather a fairly strong optimism.

15:25Knowing that during customs duties, there were only 3 of us.

15:28So, we were rather in extreme fear.

15:30So, in the end, not much to say about this week.

15:33So.

15:33I hope you enjoyed this video.

15:34Please feel free to subscribe, like, and comment if you have supported an action.

15:38You made some sales, maybe, or whatever.

15:41Also, feel free to suggest new values to me.

15:43Anyway, it was Antoine.

15:44So we'll see you again tomorrow for a summary of the news.

15:47And I say goodbye to you.

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