Iran remains unyielding under pressure, rejecting Western threats and intensifying its military strikes in response to Israeli and U.S. aggression 🚀⚔️. As the situation spirals, U.S. forces are rapidly deploying across the region, raising alarms of a larger confrontation. Meanwhile, opposition to the war builds globally, with protests spreading and political divisions deepening 🌍🛑.
In a major geopolitical move, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are expected to speak, signaling tighter coordination between Russia and China in the face of Western escalation 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Join Alexander Mercouris for expert analysis on a world hurtling toward the brink.
#IranStrikes #AlexanderMercouris #ForbiddenNews #USForcesDeploy #MiddleEastTensions #GeopoliticalCrisis #IranDefiance #NoMoreWar #PutinXi #GlobalOpposition #RussiaChinaAlliance #MilitaryBuildUp #BreakingNews #UncensoredTruth #USvsIran #IsraelIranConflict #WW3Warning #StrategicShift #DefenseUpdate #StayInformed #WarAnalysis
In a major geopolitical move, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are expected to speak, signaling tighter coordination between Russia and China in the face of Western escalation 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Join Alexander Mercouris for expert analysis on a world hurtling toward the brink.
#IranStrikes #AlexanderMercouris #ForbiddenNews #USForcesDeploy #MiddleEastTensions #GeopoliticalCrisis #IranDefiance #NoMoreWar #PutinXi #GlobalOpposition #RussiaChinaAlliance #MilitaryBuildUp #BreakingNews #UncensoredTruth #USvsIran #IsraelIranConflict #WW3Warning #StrategicShift #DefenseUpdate #StayInformed #WarAnalysis
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is wednesday 18th june 2025 and last night um all the um indicators appeared to
00:00:11suggest that the united states was indeed had indeed made a decision to join israel's attack
00:00:19on iran and i'm going to say straightforwardly that though there has not yet been a u.s attack
00:00:27on iran i nonetheless fully expect it to happen at some point over the now over the next couple of days
00:00:36so let us start firstly with the person who acts as if or claims to be the final decision maker
00:00:46in the united states who is of course the president of the united states donald trump
00:00:53now in my program yesterday i spoke about the incredible succession of messages that donald trump
00:01:02posted on the previous day on um his true social channel um as i said one after the other criticizing
00:01:13tucker carlson criticizing emmanuel macron talking about um um ira iran having failed in his in its um
00:01:27obligations and all of the rest all apparently leading up or seemed it seemed to be leading up to
00:01:34a decision to attack iran if you want an even more structured account of those messages there's a
00:01:45very very good written account of them and discussion of them by larry johnson on uh his blog sonar 2020
00:01:55on sonar 21 in which he goes through them all and talks about the incredibly dangerous escalatory
00:02:03nature of the comments and says again what i also strongly feel that it's long overdue that somebody
00:02:14somebody before these messages were pub were published actually took charge of checking them
00:02:24and coming back to the president and telling him is it really wise to say some of the things
00:02:30that the president was saying but anyway yesterday we got a further succession of messages from the
00:02:40president and they all seem to point in exactly the same direction and they came thick and fast one after
00:02:49the other um the first read as follows we now have we now have complete and total control of the skies over iran
00:03:03iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment and plenty of it but is it doesn't compare to american
00:03:12made conceived and manufactured stuff no nobody does it better than the good old usa well let's put aside
00:03:23the question of whether the americans really do have the best defense equipment i've discussed in recent
00:03:30programs and increasing numbers of people are discussing this also there's a fascinating discussion on this
00:03:37very topic by lieutenant colonel daniel davis and andrei martyanov looking into it anyway um i've discussed
00:03:47how it's obvious to me at least that there are serious problems with israel's air defense system that it has
00:03:55not lived up to its reputation um whatever the design philosophies that underpin it certainly
00:04:06at the moment it is looking less effective than the air defense system which russia possess possesses and
00:04:14which it seems to me has coped with the various attacks by ukraine on russia using western weapons
00:04:22much more effectively but as i said let's put that aside let's go to the very first word of that
00:04:30message we now have complete and total control over the skies of over iran now let's just wheel back
00:04:43a few days 10 days or so we started getting reports 10 days or so
00:04:53even as the united states and iran were supposed to be preparing for a meeting of their chief
00:05:01negotiators steve whitgoff and mr arachi in oman on the 15th of june that the israelis had lost patience
00:05:12and were about to launch a unilateral strike against iran and then the unilateral then the attack the
00:05:22israeli attack on iran duly began um on friday the 13th of june on friday and the u.s secretary of
00:05:36state then said that the attack was a unilateral attack by israel on iran and that the united states
00:05:45was in no way involved then a few hours later as the report started to trickle in about the success
00:05:54or claimed success of the israeli strikes as i've discussed in previous programs donald trump blew
00:06:01the cover of the whole claim that israel was acting unilaterally by publishing a whole succession of
00:06:08posts in which he was saying that it was entirely iran's fault that the israelis had attacked iran
00:06:16the iranians had failed to take the deal he never made clear by the way what the deal was
00:06:23that he was supposedly offering as i've said already there was no deal there were negotiations
00:06:30and there were proposals from the americans and counter proposals from the iranians and the russians
00:06:38were also involved in those discussions as of course with the amanis but it's not as if donald trump
00:06:45presented as far as i know the iranians with a complete deal which they ever formally rejected he made
00:06:56proposals but that wasn't a deal but anyway let's not get drawn into all of that anyway um that to my
00:07:04mind blew apart completely the whole elaborate cover story that it was all a unilateral attack by the
00:07:13israelis upon iran and that the united states was not involved and of course donald trump couldn't
00:07:20restrain himself he went out and he told everybody that he not only knew about the attack
00:07:26in advance but that he had a lot more than just a heads up and that the attack had happened because
00:07:34he'd given iran a 60-day ultimatum um 60 days before and the attack took place on the 61st day
00:07:45in conformity with his own ultimatum so he gave everybody the impression that he owned the operation
00:07:53that the israelis were conducting so the fiction that it was a unilateral israeli attack on iran one which
00:08:07had taken place without the involvement of the united states the claim that marco rubio the secretary
00:08:14of state was himself spreading and which was published that very same day the friday the 13th of june
00:08:24on the white house website the president himself completely blew that cover story to pieces
00:08:31and then the hours passed and iran recovered from the initial blow and they started to launch missile
00:08:39strikes of their own against israel and the missile strikes got through and began to strike and hit targets
00:08:51in israel and it became increasingly clear that contrary to whatever impression donald trump might have had
00:09:02the israeli attack on israel had not been the knockout blow that perhaps he expected and perhaps which the
00:09:12israelis and israelis and others might have told him that it was so he then began to pivot back and he published
00:09:21further messages on truth social in which he said that the united states had had nothing to do with the israeli
00:09:29attack on iran apparently all of his previous messages on truth social we were all required to forget and
00:09:37ignore them but they had nothing to do the americans had nothing to do with the truth social with the
00:09:45israeli attack he donald trump had had nothing to do with the israeli attack it was entirely the israelis
00:09:53carrying out this attack the entire impression created was that he was trying to distance himself
00:10:05and the united states from an israeli attack that a few hours before he thought had been
00:10:11a resounding success and which he had gradually come to realize had fallen far short of that
00:10:19and now the next we now have new comments and he's gone back on all of that again suddenly it is we we
00:10:32not just israel but the united states also we now have complete and total control of the skies over iran
00:10:43shortly after that message appeared on true social apparently people started to call the white house
00:10:50to ask whether that that word we on true social had been intentionally inserted there or whether it was
00:11:00just trump writing sloppily as he sometimes does and apparently the message came from the white house
00:11:08that it was indeed intentional and meant to convey exactly what it said that the united states and israel
00:11:17are working hand in hand and that this is a joint israeli american operation in other words going back
00:11:26completely on trump's attempts to revive the discredited cover story the cover story that he had himself
00:11:37discredited that the israelis were acting unilaterally no longer is it the case that the israelis
00:11:45are acting unilaterally the president of the united states now says that it is we israel and the united
00:11:54states together who have achieved complete and total control of the skies over iran by the way that may
00:12:03not be true as we will discuss shortly but never mind anyway that was then said and then a few hours a few
00:12:14minutes later a further comment suddenly appeared it read that we know we that is to say the united
00:12:25states and presumably israel it's just we again we know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding
00:12:34he is an easy target but he's safe there we are not going to take him out kill exclamation mark at
00:12:41least not for now but we don't want missile shot at civilians or american soldiers our patience our patience
00:12:50is wearing thin thank you for your attention to this matter exclamation mark another extraordinary um
00:12:58um message on true social this a few hours after prime minister netanyahu also spoke about how it'd be
00:13:08a wonderful thing it would end the war quickly if ayatollah khamenei the supreme leader of iran was indeed
00:13:17killed and here we see the president of the united states talking i have to say like a mob boss
00:13:26so you know we we we we can we're giving you some element of protection at the moment but you know
00:13:33our patience is wearing thin if you continue the way you're going well we can take you out
00:13:41whenever we choose we know where we are where you are and this is what we can do to you and then
00:13:51a few minutes later the third true social post in capitals unconditional surrender explanation mark
00:14:01what does that actually mean by the way what what does donald trump actually mean by unconditional surrender
00:14:12that iran should give up its nuclear enrichment program which has been the topic of discussion up to now
00:14:21that it should give up its entire military forces
00:14:25that iran should go through the same process that germany did in may 1945 and put up the light
00:14:38the white flag and allow presumably american and israeli forces to occupy the country and arrest its leaders
00:14:47and establishing new government there what exactly is donald trump thinking when he says those words
00:14:58unconditional surrender i mean is there any real thinking or logic behind these words at all
00:15:07what does he think that the iranians are thinking when they read those words
00:15:14it's widely believed perhaps correctly that the allied demand during the second world war for
00:15:23germany's unconditional surrender which by the way i think was entirely correct just to make this clear
00:15:30that that demand might have stiffened german resistance and prolonged the war given
00:15:37what the german leadership had been doing i don't think that there was any alternative just saying but
00:15:49in this situation in the situation where israel has conducted an attack upon iran which had not previously been
00:15:58attacking israel or the united states or by the way any other middle east country or any country
00:16:08what is unconditional surrender more likely to do the demand for it is it not more likely to make not just
00:16:17the political and military leadership of iran more determined to resist but is it not also likely to unite
00:16:28further iranian society behind their leadership in order to resist
00:16:35a demand that their country unconditionally surrender is that what trump is thinking is that what he means
00:16:44is he or has he got something else in mind well he hasn't explained his uh messages after that truth
00:16:54social message have been all about other things about his high approval rating about the fact that he's putting
00:17:03up polls to display flags about things of that kind anyway no explanation of those truly extraordinary and
00:17:16fantastic words probably it's just some kind of figure of speech intended to display resolve but again words of
00:17:28consequences and at the very least they had the very very least these words are singularly unclear and ill-judged
00:17:39in their probable effect anyway all of that was then supposed to lead to a meeting of the national
00:17:47security council and this meeting duly took place and of course we haven't yet been provided with clarity
00:17:55about the decisions that were made at that meeting but there is a claim circulating that the
00:18:04meeting divided that some of trump's advisors pressed him to support israel and to attack iran and other of
00:18:16his advisors told him that doing so would be a colossal mistake and that he should pull back and anyway that
00:18:24was the last report that i saw meanwhile donald trump's vice president jd vance who is widely
00:18:31believed to be a skeptic about all of this apparently sensing the gathering alarm and sense of anger and
00:18:42feelings of betrayal amongst donald trump's base started to publish messages
00:18:48saying that um trying to explain to rationalize the president's policies criticizing the iranian leadership
00:19:01for conducting a nuclear enrichment program saying that nobody had been able to explain why iran was
00:19:09conducting a nuclear enrichment program i'm going to express my own views about that in a moment
00:19:15um and saying basically that he understood all of the concerns that people had given the disastrous
00:19:28forever wars that had happened over the previous 25 years but basically that they should trust trust the
00:19:36president on this i don't get that sense by the way i don't get that's the sense that that message is being
00:19:42accepted um but we'll come to that again in a moment anyway vance then also had a meeting with republican
00:19:52senators in which he appeared to try to convey the same message and according to news reports and of
00:19:59course i wasn't present at this meeting but according to news reports he told the senators that the president
00:20:06still prefers a negotiated route out of this war as opposed to a violent one
00:20:20in the meantime even as all these contradictory reports about what happened at this meeting circulate
00:20:28we get more reports of more american warships moving towards the persian gulf of more u.s aircraft and military
00:20:42being deployed to the region and in particular it seems one uss navy carrier the car vinson is already in this
00:20:51general area in the um arabian sea and that another uss navy carrier the uss nimitz is steaming in that direction
00:21:04from its positions in the uh in the pacific in the asia pacific region and is expected to arrive
00:21:13there in the next few days and since then over the last few hours we've had relative silence though i've
00:21:25seen reports on some russian telegram channels that um the united states has conveyed to the iranians a
00:21:36message that unless they agree within the next 24 hours to about to give up completely all nuclear
00:21:45enrichment and their entire ballistic missile program then an attack on iran will follow that the united
00:21:53states will join the attack on iran now that may be true but i would say that as this comes from russian
00:22:01telegram channels i wonder where they're getting the information from maybe from the iranians i don't know
00:22:08but um i'm not going to assume that it is true there's also reports that jd vance and steve witgoff
00:22:19want to meet with iranian officials in some place or location somewhere i've seen some suggest that it should
00:22:29take place in new york presumably at the united nations and that attempts have been made to get
00:22:36the iranian foreign minister mr araqchi to turn up and to meet with vance and uh witgoff at this meeting
00:22:46now i've had an email about potential meetings between the americans and the iranians and i'm going to
00:22:53say that this email came from um uh this email that's um came from um eve smith just to say one of the
00:23:05most astute and insightful commentators that i'm no and she made what i thought was the completely valid
00:23:15and entirely obvious point the united states has been going around not these united states but israel
00:23:23with the enthusiastic support of some people in the united states has been going around going around
00:23:31assassinating iranian officials wherever israel can find them and the president of the united states
00:23:42himself as as i said in mob boss style made a threat to assassinate the supreme leader of iran
00:23:56might it not be considered in iran extremely unwise for any of their top officials to meet with american
00:24:06officials might it not be the case if they do that those iranian officials will only return to iran in a
00:24:18coffin of course i am sure i'm absolutely certain that that is not jd vance or steve witgov's intention
00:24:30but how can we know how can we be sure in the light of what is going on and of the threats
00:24:41are that are being made that that is not how it would turn out already one can see the problems
00:24:52anyway there's been a fine article about all of this on responsible statecraft about
00:25:01iran supposedly now capitulating to israeli demands and american and israeli demands giving up its nuclear
00:25:13nuclear enrichment program and it says that after what has happened it is all but impossible for iran to do
00:25:24any of these things if iran capitulated and agreed to american demands to end its nuclear enrichment program
00:25:35as night follows day in light of the events of the last few weeks the israelis would say that's not
00:25:45enough the iranians must give up their ballistic missiles also and the americans of course would
00:25:56support them at least that is what we have seen from the last couple of weeks that's the lesson
00:26:03that the iranians will have drawn from the last couple of weeks and then iran gives up its ballistic
00:26:09missiles and then it's expected to give up its air force its air defense system its army one demand
00:26:19following uh upon another demand until iran is left defenseless and israel attacks and achieves what is
00:26:30its true goal which is the complete collapse of the iranian government if you prefer the regime
00:26:39so there is no conceivable way that the iranians are going to accept any ultimatums at this time
00:26:46they would be foolish to do so and statements from iran from the supreme leader himself from ayatollah
00:26:55khamenei are now quite clearly stating that they are not prepared to accede to these american demands
00:27:03that they will not surrender on nuclear enrichment that iran remains strong and that it will remain
00:27:11determined to defend its sovereignty and its independence against american demands that are now
00:27:21unreasonable not only unreasonable but clearly dangerous so given that this is so i cannot see how
00:27:32negotiations between the americans and the iranians can now succeed assuming that they take place
00:27:40and it's entirely likely therefore that with donald trump between a rock and a hard place he's going to
00:27:51take the easy way and that is to attack iran now how did we get here and let me just make here my own
00:28:00give my own theory my own speculation i've encountered this kind of erratic behavior in the past in my
00:28:11professional life i've seen how people can make these incredible self-destructive catastrophic
00:28:20catastrophically ill-judged decisions i think donald trump was persuaded
00:28:27by various people he met apparently there was a meeting with um national various um national security
00:28:35advisors and political advisors um earlier this month in camp david which donald trump himself attended
00:28:46and from which someone arranged to keep tulsi gabbard the director of national intelligence excluded
00:28:56uh we have this from tucker carlson and steve bannon by the way and i have no doubt that they are right
00:29:03anyway there was this meeting there all of the people who met the president at that meeting
00:29:09well-known uh national security hard liners people who are fully committed to supporting israel people
00:29:18who insist upon strong action being taken against iran and unequivocal and total support for israel
00:29:27and of course as i've discussed in previous programs donald trump has also been meeting with
00:29:36media advocates of a war against iran in particular the fox news commentator mark levin so all of this
00:29:47all of these people met with donald trump netanyahu and his officials have obviously also been in contact
00:29:54with donald trump and they all told him look let's let israel attack iran iran is fragile
00:30:06its government is unpopular its military is weak israel's air defense system is impenetrable
00:30:17what will happen is that israel will attack iran and the government there will collapse and will
00:30:25collapse very very quickly and then you will have your great success you will have your big win over iran
00:30:35or if it doesn't happen like that the iranians will quickly capitulate and they will agree to your
00:30:40demands and you will also have your big win on iran and the united states doesn't need itself to be
00:30:50directly involved it can stand back and let these events happen and you will walk away and you will be
00:31:01well and safe now i don't believe that any of these people who were telling the president this
00:31:08believed a word of it and i want to say this quite clearly i believe that they're all drawn from the
00:31:14usual assortment of people who dominate the permanent state of the united states i think they knew perfectly
00:31:23well as soon as the operation was launched that it would be impossible for israel to destroy the nuclear
00:31:31facilities and probably they also were aware at least at some level that the iranian government would
00:31:40probably withstand the blow that israel had exerted against it but i suspect that that is not what they told
00:31:53trump trump and then of course the attack came and it didn't work out in the way that trump expected
00:32:01that it would and now to his fury and everything about his behavior over the last two days suggest
00:32:11a man who is in great fury to his fury he finds himself in a position where he has been pressed
00:32:18pressed to support israel in its attack on iran the very thing that apparently
00:32:29he wanted to avoid appearing to do otherwise why create that whole elaborate cover story that it was all
00:32:37an attack on iran conducted by israel by itself and you could see the signs of anger he goes to
00:32:51the g7 summit in canada he's clearly angry and bored by what goes on there his mind is always back
00:32:59on the united states he leaves early he signs the final communique he did apparently in the end sign
00:33:07it but by his own virtual admission he didn't properly read it and hardly knows what it says
00:33:16he refused to meet zelensky zelensky was on his way to meet him but he left before zelensky
00:33:23came the europeans are furious and feel deeply humiliated he said rude things about macron who was
00:33:31telling him don't go for regime change in iran regime change of course is exactly what this whole thing
00:33:39is all about and um on top on top of that and beyond all of that of course he wasn't prepared to agree
00:33:50sanctions and he was rude to all the other leaders and he said that china and russia should be there
00:33:57too and it was only if they were there that this meeting would have any real importance and he whizzed
00:34:03off to washington giving everybody the impression that he was needed back in washington urgently and that
00:34:13he had to make immediate decisions whilst he was there except of course that he didn't all that he did
00:34:21was published the true social messages that i discussed yesterday and which um um were also discussed
00:34:30much better than me by larry johnson on sonar 21 and you could see the the anger that's still there
00:34:41the anger in the messages that he published yesterday the threats against khamenei it's entirely normal
00:34:48when somebody knows that they're in a situation that is politically bad for themselves that is bad for
00:34:55donald trump personally in almost every respect that he lashes out he can't lash out publicly against
00:35:04netanyahu so he's gone against the easy target which is khamenei and iran he won't however pull back
00:35:14he won't reverse course because reversing course would be to admit his own folly the way in which
00:35:25he has been used by his own by the officials of his own administration the fact that he doesn't really
00:35:33control them the fact that he doesn't have any kind of policy so he's going to do the easy thing or at
00:35:40least what he thinks is the easy thing which is attack iran and keep his fingers crossed and hope
00:35:46that it all turns out well and that what the israelis were unable to do which was to destroy iran's nuclear
00:35:55facilities and to achieve regime change in iran the far greater power of the united states will be able
00:36:03to do in its place and that i'm afraid is what they're going to do what he's going to do i cannot
00:36:14imagine as i said the iranians capitulating in the way that he clearly wants them to i can't see him
00:36:22returning to a genuine path of negotiations whatever he's advised to do by people like wit goff and vance
00:36:31i think that he is now committed to helping israel and i think that that is what he's going to do
00:36:41and though perhaps he balked from making a final decision during the national security council yesterday
00:36:50the logic of events irresistibly points pushes him towards that step of attacking iran now some will
00:37:00say that this is a defense of donald trump i would say again it is the absolute opposite i am by the way
00:37:10fairly confident that my reconstruction of his mood and actions is correct i've seen this many times in
00:37:19many people a president of the united states somebody who aspires to lead their country should never be
00:37:30allowed never let themselves get into a situation of this kind it would be better if donald trump had been
00:37:40in full agreement with all the hardliners with people like o'brien and mike waltz and all of those people
00:37:50who want to support an attack on iran it would mean that perhaps as i said in previous programs he might
00:38:00have some control over what is going to happen next with a chance that he might draw back
00:38:10i think he has no control at all and that that makes him and the situation far more dangerous for
00:38:20everybody for iran for the united states for the world and of course for himself than it would otherwise
00:38:30be i cannot imagine a more damning assessment of his actions than the one i've made in this program
00:38:38just the same anyway there we are that is what i think is going to happen i don't know whether it'll be
00:38:44in the next 24 hours but some point maybe at the end of this week we will start to see attacks by the
00:38:52united states upon iran now there's a law article in the financial times today about these massive bombs
00:39:04that the united states has apparently it only has around 20 of them and um it says that these bombs were
00:39:12specifically designed to attack the four-door nuclear enrichment facility the one that's buried deep
00:39:22inside the mountain but the article confirms what i have suspected which is that there is no guarantee
00:39:34a success it's not certain that the bombs are powerful enough there's some suggestions that they might not be
00:39:44that the facilities in fordall are buried deeper in harder rock and concrete than the bombs are able to break
00:39:55that you would need two bombs one falling directly on top of the other the hole that the other has created
00:40:03in able in order to have any real serious chance of penetration now that is a very complex operation
00:40:12one which the united states air force is probably capable of carrying out but then of course all of
00:40:19that depends on many things one of which is that the iranians themselves are not going to take any
00:40:26counter measures won't have established any effective defenses around four door um will not be able to
00:40:36take action against the bombers as they are conducting the attack and the only bombers apparently that are
00:40:44capable of carrying these bombs are the b2 bombers and though they are stealthy that only means that they are
00:40:53stealthy in relation to radars there are other ways to detect them and their huge wingspan means that
00:41:02they are actually a relatively easy target if there are proper air defense systems operating in the area
00:41:11so this is a complicated difficult high risk operation it might fail it's possible that one or two of the
00:41:22bombers might be shot down and even if everything goes according to plan it's not definite it's not certain
00:41:36that the bombs are powerful enough to destroy the four-door facility so i don't know anything about these
00:41:46kind of things i have no technical knowledge of bombs or explosives or what is needed to break into mountains
00:41:57i'm not able to comment on this i don't know anything about the facility in four door and how deep it is
00:42:03and how protected it is so it may be that the chances of success are greater than the financial time says
00:42:13but for what it's worth that article is there and its authors clearly have their share of concerns we'll see
00:42:27i'm sure that the four door will be attacked at some point in the next 10 days i'm sure that the iranians
00:42:35know that it is going to be attacked at some point over the next 10 days i'm sure that they're
00:42:42doing everything they feel is needed or that they can realistically do in this very complex military
00:42:50situation that is now playing out to secure and strengthen the facility and perhaps to defend it
00:43:00we'll just have to wait and see and see how things play out if i was donald trump
00:43:07i certainly would not be staking my entire political career on a risk like that but then i'm not donald trump
00:43:14thank goodness and as i said he's now made that decision whether he realizes it or not and i don't think
00:43:24he can wrote back on it now just to also say perhaps to reinforce how disastrous politically this could all turn out to be
00:43:41there is a opinion poll which um is um now um public which shows how unpopular with the american public
00:44:00this operation is apparently 60 percent of americans oppose the united states involving itself
00:44:09in an attack in iran in an attack in iran against iran only um 24 are not sure one way or the other
00:44:20the number of people who gave an answer to this opinion poll who straightforwardly support the attack
00:44:29attack an attack on iran numbers around 16 percent and yesterday the federalist the um as i said the
00:44:40intellectual um site of the mega movement they broke their silence about this whole crisis by publishing the
00:44:51result of that opinion poll they've now followed up with an article a big article today which says
00:44:59discredited neocon talking points from the iraq war are back lazily repurposed for iran so they're coming
00:45:09out clearly against this but let's go back to that opinion poll if the attack on iran succeeds
00:45:17if the nuclear sites are devastated if the nuclear sites are devastated if regime change follows perhaps
00:45:26donald trump can ride this one out but if the operation fails if the united states is caught up
00:45:36in a prolonged war against iran then that sixty percent who say that they are opposed to this war
00:45:48is going to grow and the political consequences are going to be dire there will be protests there will
00:45:55be uh complaints to congress there will be a peeling away of support as the president's entire
00:46:11political position becomes consumed by the war just as was the case with lyndon johnson back in the
00:46:221960s eventually his position will become threatened and his ability to um lead the united states
00:46:34will be in my opinion massively compromised opinion polls like this remind me very much of the situation
00:46:44in britain in britain in 2002 when tony blair a political leader who was even more dominant in
00:46:55terms of the british political scene in 2002 than donald trump has been of the political scene in the united
00:47:02united states went against the united states went against the weight of british public opinion
00:47:08and led britain into a deeply unpopular war against saddam hussein's iraq
00:47:15for a while he was able to pull it off especially when saddam hussein's regime fell but as the war continued
00:47:30and it was clear that it was a debacle his credibility as prime minister was shot to pieces
00:47:38he experienced a heavy loss of support in the 2005 general election and the following year he was forced
00:47:53to step down his reputation amongst the british public has never recovered i think that trump is on the same
00:48:05slide i think at some level he probably knows it but i'm not convinced at this point that there is
00:48:14anything that he can do anyway there we are we shall see what plays out over the next few few days with
00:48:21the united states meanwhile the missile and exchanges between iran and israel continue the israelis
00:48:31continue to conduct attacks against um iran uh targets in iran tehran and tabriz seem to be particularly um heavily
00:48:45targeted the israelis also carried out an attack on the uh nuclear enrichment facilities in natanz
00:48:54they claimed that they had managed to penetrate and do damage to some of the enrichment facilities
00:49:01there and the iaea which has now become um a loyal uh republisher of claims made in the west um
00:49:17basically republished those claims and said that they might be true the iranians by the way deny them
00:49:25they say that none of the none of their nuclear facilities have experienced any essential damage
00:49:34the iranian authorities continue to be as defiant as always i think it is gradually becoming recognized
00:49:42that the attack on the television station which by the way by some shall i put it more strongly
00:49:54by the prevailing view held by most international lawyers is a war crime anyway that the attack
00:50:06on the television station uh was a serious mistake it further infuriated the iranian public
00:50:16and made the television presenter a a television presenter in iran a symbol of national defiance even the
00:50:27financial times is admitting that by the way anyway um iran continues to be as defiant as always it conducted
00:50:37more missile strikes against israel last night the israelis are saying that there were fewer missile
00:50:45strikes than on previous nights the iranians saying are saying the diametric opposite i'm not able to say
00:50:54who is telling the truth in either case some missiles do seem to have got through
00:50:59and do seem to have conducted actual damage
00:51:06so the war itself continues and an article has now appeared in the war street journal which says that
00:51:17israel is indeed starting to run short of air defense interceptors specifically the long range arrow
00:51:24interceptors um the stockpile of them is depleting in the face of these continuous iranian attacks
00:51:36i've been saying that on this channel and we can start to see that this is exactly what is happening
00:51:44and how it is playing out now the iranians are saying more they're saying that if the united states
00:51:51does become involved in the war then iran will start taking counter steps against the united states that
00:51:59they will can attack american bases across the middle east given we given that we have seen that iranian
00:52:07missiles are able to penetrate um israeli air defenses there's no reason to doubt that they can also
00:52:16penetrate american air defenses and as brian baletic has been pointing out for a long time now the united
00:52:28states anyway has a general shortage of air defense interceptors production is not keeping up with demand
00:52:36not even with ukrainian demand so if there are missile barrages against american bases across the middle east
00:52:51well it seems to me based on everything we now know the iranian missiles will be able to strike
00:53:01and hit them just saying anyway so i can't see any good outcomes here and iranian officials have also been
00:53:13making further claims a former official has spoken about a decision having been made to close the gulf of
00:53:23hormuz i have seen no action by iran that suggests that anything like that is in fact being done but
00:53:34we're already getting reports that the pentagon is worried that the iranians could start seeding the
00:53:41gulf of hormuz with mines in effect closing it to maritime traffic and i've even seen some speculation
00:53:49that any american warships that enter the persian gulf um could find themselves trapped if the iranians
00:53:57do take that those steps and could themselves in that case become targets for iranian missiles i'm not
00:54:05going to speculate or discuss these sort of things this is way beyond my levels of military technical
00:54:13competence i am not sure what iranian capabilities are and i have no knowledge at all of iranian intentions
00:54:23meanwhile there are lots of report reports about the chinese in particular starting to take their
00:54:31steps there's been more reports of chinese aircraft flying to iran
00:54:41these are apparently boeing 747s of the chinese um airlines um it's speculated they could be
00:54:51they could be cargo aircraft in which case they might be carrying weapons but then one does wonder
00:54:58what weapons and as brian baletic pointed out in a live stream we did with him yesterday on the duran
00:55:07can can iran in the very short time that it has these weapons use them i mean usually takes time to
00:55:18learn to assimilate and learn how to use weapons unless of course there's been long-standing agreements
00:55:25between iran and china that we don't know about um one further possibility which i i am going to say
00:55:35is that it could be that these flights are evacuation flights and that china is taking steps to evacuated
00:55:47citizens from iran that is a possibility that so far as i know no one has mentioned but it is possible
00:55:56there of course continues to be enormous amount of speculation that um china
00:56:03um that the china is the ultimate target that after iran is destroyed the neocons will turn
00:56:13their attention to china i've no doubt at all that that is indeed the plan of a large number of people
00:56:23in the neocon and think tank community in the united states i am going to hear
00:56:34express my own opinion iran is indeed important for china it's not been widely noticed for example that
00:56:45iran and china have recently established overland rail links in fact just before this attack a chinese
00:56:54train traveling from china crossed through pakistan and entered iran it was starting a whole network of
00:57:08travel between china and iran anyway there is no doubt that iran is important to china it's seen as an important
00:57:20economy one that china could build up and develop and of course it's useful it would be a useful place
00:57:30if it were stable and secure enabling the chinese to use iran as a kind of gateway to the wider middle east
00:57:42and perhaps to africa and of course iran does export oil to china and china has recently become a major importer
00:57:52of oil from iran however though iran is important to china i think it is a massive overstatement
00:58:05and frankly entirely wrong to think that iran is critical to china or indeed to russia i think those people who
00:58:17believe that iran is the keystone of the entire bricks project are certainly wrong bricks has existed
00:58:30for a long time before iran joined it iran only joined bricks a few months ago in fact and i've no doubt
00:58:37that the bricks can continue without iran though in no sense am i trying to understate its significance
00:58:45or the concern that a crisis in iran would cause to russia and china my own view is that the longer the
00:58:56conflict continues the more likely it becomes the china and russia will start to take active measures to
00:59:07support iran i've discussed in previous programs the kind of active measures that they could take
00:59:13it all depends ultimately on the stability of the government in iran if it collapses over the next few
00:59:25weeks there's very little that china and russia can do if it withstands the blow and maintains its
00:59:32internal cohesion and retains its control of the country then with every day it will get stronger and
00:59:40and it will start to receive more and more support from the other eurasian powers and that will tilt the
00:59:47balance of advantage further and further against the israelis and their american allies that is my own
00:59:55view as i said it ultimately depends on the internal stability of iran so far iran does appear as if the
01:00:08government is secure and stable but then of course the main blow from the united states has not yet fallen so
01:00:18so we'll just have to see how it is able to deal with that and what will happen um and what will happen
01:00:29when it does anyway this is what i'm going to say about this crisis today um
01:00:36one very last thing the kremlin has confirmed that xi jinping and putin are going to have a conversation
01:00:45over the next couple of days i have no doubt that it will be mostly about the situation relating to iran
01:00:53the attack on iran um both men both putin and see have been very busy over the last couple of days putin
01:01:03has a long-standing commitment to go to st petersburg to attend the st petersburg international economic
01:01:11forum um a key leader from a key official from china a member of the politburo will be there
01:01:19and putin will no doubt be meeting him but this is an important event in the russian political and
01:01:26economic calendar and putin is hardly in a position to skip it and i understand by the way that turkey
01:01:37has also sent a very powerful delegation to attend this particular conference in st petersburg as well
01:01:45and putin undoubtedly will be wanting to speak to them xi jinping has been in ostana in kazakhstan
01:01:53where he has been attending a summit of central asian leaders so again this is an important meeting
01:02:00which put si xi jinping would not have wanted to skip but as soon as these events are out of the way
01:02:08and each is in their respective capital we will probably have a telephone conversation in fact we will
01:02:15definitely have a conversation between the two in which um which will be the contents of which will be
01:02:23made public we will be provided with readouts and which will enable them to further coordinate their
01:02:33positions of course in saying this i should say that i think it's quite likely that si and putin have
01:02:42already spoken to each other since the um israeli attack on iran but obviously they will not have had
01:02:51the full panoply of their officials with them and it's likely that if such a conversation has taken place
01:03:01it will have been a short one basically to agree basic positions before the full scheduled meeting
01:03:14over the next couple of days takes place so china and russia will coordinate they will take steps
01:03:25they are already taking steps they're certainly working together in the security council in the united
01:03:31nations but the main burden at the moment falls on iran now even as all of this continues the war itself
01:03:45in ukraine also continues and zelensky and his people are apparently deeply upset that donald trump
01:03:56didn't meet them in canada that he'd already left the g7 meeting in canada um before zelensky and his
01:04:09people had even arrived there and i'm gonna say it whatever you may think of trump's actions
01:04:19over the last couple of days and i've expressed my own frankly i consider scathing views of them um
01:04:31the europeans once again have been completely humiliated and it shows all across the media in britain
01:04:42i i appreciate the newspapers tried to suppress it but social media has been showing it all over the
01:04:48place and it's appeared it's starting to appear in even mainstream medium now there is this utterly dreadful
01:04:59photograph of trump and starmer after they've supposedly signed the trade deal trump has dropped it onto the
01:05:09ground and starmer is kneeling at trump's feet trying to retrieve the papers it looks awful and it is
01:05:22awful and there's been bitter comments about the meeting the way in which trump basically stood up
01:05:30stood up all the europeans made it quite clear that he wasn't interested in them or in their concerns and
01:05:37thought that it made more sense for him to be back in washington and all of this as i said has
01:05:43cumulatively had a very very bad effect in europe here perhaps i should explain what i think european
01:05:50attitudes about this conflict between israel and iran are i think all of the european governments the
01:05:57major european governments are rooting for israel to a greater or lesser degree some of them
01:06:04like friedrich matt's in germany are absolutely straightforward about the fact that they support
01:06:10israel in this conflict with iran the fact that this is an attack on a country at peace isn't something
01:06:18that they ever recognize they continue to insist preposterously that it is iran that is the major
01:06:26um destabilizer of the situation in the middle east i mean claim that makes me speechless given as i said
01:06:35that iran at the time of the attack upon it wasn't attacking any country given the events in gaza given
01:06:43the previous iranian israeli attacks in lebanon and in syria but anyway never mind um i think that all of the
01:06:52european governments are privately rooting for israel but they are concerned again that if the situation
01:07:07in the middle east leads to a prolonged war that will drag or pull in the united states
01:07:18and lead to a long-term commitment of the united states in the middle east
01:07:24a war that will absorb american resources then the europeans
01:07:33are worried that this will intensify the process whereby the united states disengages from europe
01:07:42drops europe completely and leaves the europeans to their own devices and that for the europeans
01:07:50continues to be the ultimate nightmare and it explains some of their hesitation and prevarication about
01:08:01the situation in the middle east i think it is explained by nothing more than that but anyway the
01:08:09europeans utterly humiliated by what happened in canada at the g7 marginalized ignored
01:08:21by the united states left again talking to each other unable to control or even influence events
01:08:31and left again to meet with zelensky and basically to pat him down and to reassure him that they're all
01:08:38behind him and that they remain his friend meanwhile we're getting more news about further russian
01:08:45advances in ukraine and i'm not going to provide here a detailed discussion of those advances again
01:08:54i i hardly think that this is the place to but we've now had more reports more explanations about what
01:09:00happened during that major russian attack on kiev that took place two days ago this is the attack where
01:09:09the ukrainians claimed that they shot down pretty much everything that the russians launched at kiev
01:09:17well not only is that obviously not true but we're now getting reports that a major warehouse full of
01:09:23ammunition and also large numbers of drones necessary for ukraine for ukrainian troops on the front lines
01:09:34anyway that drone warehouse was completely destroyed and there is furious anger and recrimination about this
01:09:46in ukraine and criticism of the ukrainian businessman who supposedly posed inside this warehouse with these
01:09:54drones it said that this gave away the presence of the warehouse with the drones to the russians which
01:10:01is quite probably true by the way anyway the war continues the russians are continuing to advance
01:10:09the situation in sumi region is getting very bad for ukraine um it looks as if near um near um siversk
01:10:22the village of cerebianca is about to fall i say that um it's likely the ukrainians will make put up a
01:10:32stiff resistance instead of yanka it's generally accepted that we're very called kamyansk and gregorovka and
01:10:39cera already having fallen with the russians having taken cversk into a kind of semi-circle with the russians
01:10:49um west of cversk perhaps occupying um torska though the ukrainians deny it um anyway it's generally
01:11:04accepted that if cera bianca falls the ukrainian garrison in cversk will be in an undefendable
01:11:11position and may be forced to retreat or withdraw or more likely given that we're talking about
01:11:18zelensky and sirsky they will try and stand their ground and we will see another repetition of the
01:11:25disaster that ukraine suffered a few months ago in ugleda a town which in southern ukraine
01:11:35filled a similar role as a kind of fortified position that cversk fulfills in the north where the ukrainian
01:11:46garrison was basically told to stand and fight and then of course it basically fled and it fled across
01:11:54the fields the contested fields and large numbers of men apparently died in those fields and i suspect
01:12:02it will be the same in cversk um anyway that is one battle amongst many others um the blogger known as
01:12:14big serge has published again a massive um analysis of the state of the war he thinks that the big blow
01:12:24the big russian blow is going to come in the pakrovsk uh konstantinovka area and he predicts as many
01:12:32do by the way that konstantinovka will be the first of the two to fall and he thinks that
01:12:39konstantinovka is becoming undefendable i'm not going to comment about that um
01:12:47pakrovsk also looks increasingly undefendable to me all i would say is this if pakrovsk and konstantinovka
01:12:55do fall with the russians now advancing in kharkov region two i cannot imagine a prolonged defense
01:13:05of the other two donbass cities slaviansk and kramatorsk and once they fall well the major ukrainian
01:13:17defenses east of the nipa will have gone but all of this is for further discussion in future programs
01:13:28this is where i finish my program today i'm sorry to say this i believe a war between the united states
01:13:37and iran is now inevitable if it is a short war then it may be that donald trump will survive
01:13:49politically but massive damage will be done and it will only lead in the end i expect to far worse things
01:14:01if it is a long war which i think there is a real possibility that it might be then as i said it can
01:14:11only end in a geopolitical catastrophe for the united states and for the west and for the collapse of
01:14:19donald trump's administration that that will be it must be said the least important of all the things
01:14:29but i cannot see talking as i am about the situation today how this outcome can be prevented anyway this
01:14:40is where i finish today's program let me remind you again that all the uh you can find all our programs
01:14:47on our various platforms locals rumble and x you can support our work via patreon and subscribe star
01:14:55and by going to our shop links under this video last but not least if you've liked this video please
01:15:01remember to tick the like button and to check the subscription to this channel that's me for today
01:15:07more from me soon have a very good day
01:15:20you
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