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00:00Coming up on Chopper's Political Podcast.
00:02Can I say they're being a bit of an arse on your podcast?
00:05The word arse is acceptable.
00:06Yeah.
00:16Welcome back to Chopper's Political Podcast,
00:19where I bring you the best guest gossip news and stories from our studios
00:22here at GB News in the heart of Westminster.
00:26This week, the Labour government finally set out its plans
00:29of how it wants to deliver on change for so many Brits,
00:32putting its money where its mouth is by spending hundreds of billions of pounds,
00:36mainly, or a lot of it, in the Red Wall, the north of England.
00:40There will be increases in day-to-day spending in science, health, defence,
00:43and cuts for transport, trade, and the environment.
00:48Now, Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, on Wednesday told his cabinet
00:51that this spending review marks the first stage of government
00:56as we move to a phase that delivers on the promise of change for the British people.
01:01But after a week in which Labour won positive headlines
01:04for its various spending announcements on health and defence and elsewhere,
01:07attention is now focusing, towards the end of the week,
01:10on how we pay for it all.
01:12Speaking to me hours after the spending review,
01:14Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, told me this.
01:17Taxes won't need to go up to pay for what is in this spending review,
01:21Now, I'm not going to write four years' worth of budgets
01:24within the first year of this government,
01:27but we took the action that was necessary last year
01:30to put our public finances on a firm footing
01:32and put that immediate injection of cash into our public services,
01:36and we've allocated the funding for day-to-day spending
01:38for the next three years and for capital spending
01:41for the remainder of this Parliament.
01:43Now, if you listen very carefully to what the Chancellor told me,
01:45she said there clearly there's nothing announced
01:48in Wednesday's spending review
01:49that needs further tax increases.
01:52What about things that aren't in that spending review,
01:55perhaps like lifting the two-child benefit cap,
01:58which will cost billions?
01:59I also grabbed the Institute for Fiscal Studies'
02:02director, Paul Johnson,
02:03on College Green outside Parliament
02:05after the spending review.
02:07He had this to say to me
02:08on whether taxes may now have to go up.
02:10If the forecasts remain exactly as they were
02:13in the spring statement,
02:15then we won't need further tax increases,
02:18but we never have a world in which nothing changes.
02:21Chances are going to have to hope
02:22they change in the right direction.
02:24I think they're more likely to change in the wrong direction.
02:27Paul Johnson there shortly after the spending review.
02:29Now, I spoke to Paul Johnson
02:30before the spending review at greater length
02:33when he reflected on the tax and spend choices
02:35facing Labour and his plans for the future.
02:38He's leaving the IFS very shortly.
02:42That's for later in the podcast.
02:44But first, while I was watching the spending review
02:46a few metres above Rachel Reeves from the press gallery,
02:48I was struck by the way she name-checked
02:51so many towns and cities in the Red Wall of England,
02:55places where Nigel Farage's Reform UK is surging.
02:58It sounds to me a bit like a GB News weather forecast.
03:01We often list the name, the temperatures of places
03:04where our viewers and listeners live,
03:07and they love that.
03:08And in a sense, it was pointing out the weather for GB News.
03:12So I thought we'd like to ask this morning
03:14about the spending review and the effect
03:15on the so-called Red Wall
03:18than Jonathan Hinder, Labour MP for Pendle and Clitheroe,
03:21and a member of the Blue Labour Group of Labour MPs.
03:25Jonathan, welcome to Chopper's Political Podcast.
03:27Thanks for having me.
03:28Great to have you here.
03:29Now, how do you find that announcement?
03:32Were you impressed by it?
03:34Did it touch all the hot buttons you're worried about?
03:37Well, the thing that stuck out to me was exactly what you just said,
03:40which was that emphasis on areas which have been starved of public investment.
03:44It does have a place named by them.
03:45Absolutely.
03:46And it was great to hear that.
03:48And it's an acknowledgement, I think,
03:50of the fact that we are the most economically imbalanced country
03:54in the developed world.
03:55And that's actually been getting worse.
03:57So we saw some research this week saying that actually,
04:00if the North had had the same kind of investment as London over the last 10 years,
04:04we would have been able to build seven cross rails with that.
04:08So we really need to stop entrenching that regional inequality
04:11and actually start tackling it.
04:13So I was absolutely delighted to hear that emphasis on the North of England
04:17and other regions of the UK.
04:19Capital spending.
04:19Yeah, absolutely.
04:20Big projects.
04:21And that's the key thing for me.
04:23It is about lifting those areas up economically
04:26rather than the transfers of wealth that we've seen over the decades
04:30with London bringing in the tax receipts,
04:32spreading that out sort of artificially, if you like, to the Red Wall.
04:36And to do that,
04:36she's fiddled with the value for money calculation they make in the Treasury,
04:40the so-called Green Book.
04:41Yeah.
04:42Because the Treasury wants to get maximum bang for its buck
04:44and therefore it's been spending money in the South of England
04:46where wages are better and people with higher incomes are.
04:50So getting money spent in the North has been important.
04:52And she has done that for you, it seems.
04:55Absolutely.
04:55Yeah.
04:55And that's really encouraging.
04:57I think what we've got to acknowledge is that the Treasury
05:00has historically been more focused on fiscal policy
05:04rather than economic policy.
05:05So it's about the...
05:07What does that mean to the listeners?
05:08So it basically means that they are investing in places
05:11where they think they're going to get the quickest, biggest return
05:14rather than thinking about the economic welfare of the whole country.
05:18So it needs that political leadership.
05:21Are you worried, though, about the length of time it might take to do this?
05:24Because projects take time and the election is only three and a half years away.
05:27Well, absolutely.
05:28We've got to move as quickly as possible.
05:30But I think that's a reason to praise the government rather than criticise it,
05:34which is taking those long-term decisions.
05:36So we saw that with the trailing of the investment on nuclear.
05:40Actually, we're not going to see the full benefits of that for quite some time.
05:44But that's even more of a reason to welcome it
05:46because it's taking a long-term decision.
05:48You know, famously, we've had other parties saying
05:51there's no point going for nuclear because it'll take 10 years
05:53like Nick Clegg did in 2010.
05:55It's blocked by the Lib Dems.
05:56Yeah.
05:57And look where we are now.
05:58What a better position we would be in if we'd had that decision taken.
06:02Be on the stream.
06:02Yeah, wouldn't it?
06:03Well, exactly.
06:04Might as well see.
06:05Not much room for manoeuvre.
06:06We heard Paul Johnson there saying
06:08if growth is where it's meant to be,
06:10you'll be okay for no more tax rises,
06:14which the Chancellor pledged to us last November.
06:17Are you worried about that?
06:18Well, it's definitely a concern
06:21that we haven't had the growth in this country for a long time
06:24that we would have done
06:26if forecasts prior to the financial crisis were correct.
06:29So, yes, absolutely.
06:30I think we've got to think carefully about where we spend our money.
06:33I want it to be on that investment as much as it is, you know,
06:37a focus on the day-to-day spending, which is important, of course.
06:40How much of that, of this lack of growth, is your government's fault?
06:44The increase in national insurance, employers,
06:47the increase in minimal wage.
06:48That's a big squeeze on hospitality, isn't it?
06:50And we're seeing jobs, you know, the workforce falling,
06:54or forecast to fall, in April and May.
06:56Well, I think it's been a long-term issue
06:58which has been ailing Western economies
07:01that we're seeing is low growth.
07:03And actually, it's those long-term investment decisions
07:06which are going to get us out of this.
07:08We don't want a short-term rush.
07:09So, I'm backing the government to make those long-term decisions.
07:13Yeah, but as right as it to increase taxes on employers
07:16is now more expensive to hire people, isn't it?
07:18Well, we wouldn't have been able to invest in public services
07:20in the way that we have in this spending review.
07:22I think most people would accept that our infrastructure
07:25in this country and our public services are crumbling.
07:28They're not in a good place.
07:30And, you know, you can look back at historically low interest rates
07:33wasted under the Conservative years.
07:35But that's gone now.
07:36We've got to deal with what we've got.
07:38We said we were...
07:39Transformers on the energy shock and COVID.
07:42On COVID, yeah.
07:43That's where the money's gone.
07:43Yeah, absolutely.
07:44To be fair, the Tory party.
07:45And you have to be honest about where we are as a country
07:49having made that kind of choice.
07:53HS2, Northern Leg, nothing on that.
07:56A shame?
07:57Well, I...
07:59But only you and me talking, Jonathan, not listening.
08:01Yeah.
08:02I mean, it's a farce, isn't it?
08:05I mean, the whole HS2 debacle is a good little microcosm
08:08of where I think we've gone wrong with public investment in this country.
08:11We are so tied up in the bureaucracy, in the planning regulations.
08:17And the government is acting to unblock that,
08:19which is to their enormous credit.
08:21But the red tape, the bat tunnel.
08:23Yeah, all of that.
08:24£29 million to protect bats.
08:27I mean, at some point someone said...
08:29And I did hear, actually, the guys who built that
08:31said that was the cheapest way to deal with the regulations.
08:35We were able to build a bat tunnel.
08:36Yeah.
08:37The regs can't be right, can they?
08:38It's insane.
08:39It's insane.
08:40Absolutely insane.
08:41So I'm really glad the government is acting on this.
08:43And the thing that stops us building infrastructure in this country
08:45is not actually the time it takes to build it.
08:48It is all of that planning stuff.
08:49So, yeah, a real farce.
08:51I want to see not just better connections between, you know,
08:55Manchester and London, as would have been then.
08:57Of course, it was about capacity, not speed.
08:59This is what I say to people all the time.
09:01And I travel on that every week on that line.
09:04And, you know, every time I get stuck behind...
09:05Well, it became that.
09:06It started off as being speed.
09:07And that's why they tunnelled so much under the Chilterns,
09:10to do a straight line.
09:11If they had followed the motorways,
09:14it would have been a curved line for capacity, not speed.
09:17But I think they spec'd it wrong at the beginning.
09:20Yeah, yeah, I think it's so expensive.
09:22There's an argument for that.
09:22But when I speak to my constituents, you know,
09:24they say, well, I'm more bothered about the trade services
09:27in my constituency rather than connecting to big cities.
09:30I guess, too, get on with it, Charleston.
09:32Is that what you're saying?
09:33Well...
09:33Golden leg.
09:34I think there are other things that we can spend
09:38our investment money on.
09:41I'm not going to get tied up on that particular project.
09:43I think it's an example of where we've gone wrong.
09:45I want to see better connections for towns like those...
09:48Golden Powerhouse, Rails and Alice Balladage.
09:49Yeah, wouldn't it be great?
09:50But the thing I said to the Chancellor yesterday
09:52when she briefed MPs after the spending revolt was,
09:55we want to see investment for the towns,
09:57not just the cities.
09:59So it's great that Manchester and Leeds,
10:00the nearby cities to my constituency,
10:03are getting that investment,
10:04connections between them.
10:05But we want to see the towns like those I represent.
10:08I'm always struck by town centres,
10:11how sad they feel.
10:12With GB News, I deliberately get out and about
10:15into the towns in the north,
10:17from the north as well,
10:19and I just get really sad
10:20because all the old independent shops appear to have gone.
10:23Some of the chains are retreating from the town centres.
10:25Yeah.
10:25They feel quite sad.
10:26I do a lot of broadcasting at 4pm or 3pm from them,
10:29and there are no shoppers around.
10:30Yeah, absolutely.
10:31And that speaks to the cost of living, doesn't it?
10:33If people haven't got money in their pockets to spend,
10:36then they're not going onto those high streets,
10:38they'll spend it.
10:39What I would say, though, is we can, as a government,
10:42and as a left-wing government
10:43who's steering the economy in the direction we would like,
10:46we can say, actually,
10:47we are going to favour those high street businesses
10:50over the big corporates who are selling.
10:53Can you be online?
10:54Rates issue, a business rate issue.
10:55Absolutely.
10:55The budget coming up.
10:56And the government is already making moves in that direction,
10:58which I'm encouraged by.
10:59And what did she say to you by virtue?
11:00What was her answer when you raised your concerns last night?
11:03She absolutely understood it.
11:04I made the political point as well, of course,
11:06that that's where the general elections are now for,
11:09is in the towns, not in the cities.
11:11You know, look at the majority sizes in the towns
11:13rather than in cities.
11:14So she received it well.
11:16Good point.
11:18Asylum hotels, saving £1 billion on those
11:20by the end of this decade,
11:22which is currently running at £3.1 billion.
11:25Ending the use of asylum hotels, thank goodness,
11:27everyone would agree with that,
11:28but moving them into communities,
11:30HMOs, houses of multiple occupation,
11:33risking increasing tensions
11:34if they displace people who are waiting for a flat,
11:37maybe a social housing flat.
11:39Well, that's the worry.
11:41It's encouraging that we are not going to have people in hotels,
11:45but I would say that's not the core issue here.
11:48The core issue is stopping illegal migration.
11:52There's a thousand arriving this year
11:53across the southern border.
11:55Yeah, and I said on Michelle's show the other night,
11:58yeah, I said we need to tackle this issue
12:01and we need to remove every legal obstacle.
12:03I don't know about a chaotic policy like that,
12:07but there does need to be a deterrent
12:08and it's no good politicians continuing to say to the public,
12:12we hear you, but it's all too difficult.
12:14And this speaks to some of the things I've been saying
12:16about democratic power.
12:18We want the government to run the country,
12:20make the decisions to secure our borders.
12:22We can restore faith in politics.
12:24What deterrent would you do?
12:25Well, I think you've got to say
12:27that the chances of you being able to stay here
12:30if you arrive on British soil are currently far too high.
12:34So it is about those increased returns.
12:37It is about processing things much more quickly,
12:40but you do need that deterrent.
12:43So I'm not going to get into the specifics
12:45of what I would recommend.
12:46Why not tell me what I'm doing now?
12:48Well, what I would say is that at the moment
12:51it is too appealing for people to come over.
12:54And if we had that deterrent,
12:55then the boats would stop coming.
12:57Come over, you probably stay for quite a while.
12:59You get a hotel room, you get maybe other warm weather.
13:02You know, we look after people
13:03because we're a welcoming nation.
13:06The ECHR is part of the problem.
13:08I mean, you're battling against reform in the UK.
13:09They say leave it.
13:10Robert Jenrick says leave it.
13:13The toys are going towards leaving
13:15or elements of the European Convention on Human Rights.
13:17Is it time for that kind of chat in the Labour Party?
13:20Well, it's not functioning properly.
13:21That's absolutely clear.
13:22If you look at the treaty that was signed to create it,
13:26it bears no resemblance in some of the decisions
13:28that are being made now.
13:30And, you know, we are really talking about...
13:31Do you have judges for that, do you?
13:33Well, it's judicial activism in many cases.
13:35I mean, we see some of these crazy decisions
13:37that are being made on the basis of a right to family life.
13:41There was a famous case in Switzerland not so long ago.
13:45And, you know, that's not what was intended.
13:46So I understand why people kind of balk at the idea
13:49of talking about a human rights treaty
13:52having to be changed or whatever.
13:54But either we need to seriously reform it
13:57or we need to think about whether it's fit for purpose at all.
14:00So it's not about stripping away...
14:01Are you thinking about leaving it, Jonathan?
14:02Well, it's not about stripping away human rights,
14:04but it's saying this is not fit for purpose.
14:06We need to make sure it is, whatever framework it is.
14:09And I go back to what I said...
14:10Or you leave it.
14:11Well, I say every legal obstacle should be removed.
14:14And if we can do that within the ECHR,
14:17that's absolutely fine by me.
14:18That's absolutely fine by me.
14:20Well, you're saying leave it, Jess, don't you?
14:22I'm not.
14:22I'm not saying that.
14:23But what I am saying is it isn't fit for purpose.
14:25So we do need to look at reformation at the very minimum.
14:29Mention deterrence.
14:30I mean, I was there when the Keir Starmer on the second day
14:33in that press conference in Downing Street announced
14:35we're going to junk the Rwanda plan.
14:38Now, it did cost 400 million.
14:40Two people went there voluntarily
14:42because they were seeing whether they were proving to judges
14:44it was a safe country.
14:45That's why that happened.
14:48Why not give it a go?
14:49Because all that money spent,
14:50all you, me, others, tax money, went into this project.
14:54Why not see if it works rather than axe it all together?
14:56Well, that decision's been made.
14:57It was a chaotic policy.
15:00Obviously, the Conservancy of Government didn't seem to know how to...
15:03No, I don't think it was.
15:04I don't think it was.
15:05But I do think we've got to be creative on this stuff.
15:08And we are going to have to have a deterrent.
15:09That was an attempt to have one
15:11in a completely chaotic, incompetent way.
15:13But we are going to need a deterrent.
15:15And it did drive all the attention towards that
15:17and allow the big bits of legacy claims.
15:20Which the Government has made some progress on in that.
15:22We understand that.
15:22We get that.
15:23So maybe an offshore processing plan?
15:26I think we should be open to lots of options.
15:30Like Albany or somewhere.
15:32Although they won't do it with us, they're saying.
15:33Where do you sit on net zero?
15:35Isn't Nigel Farage onto something
15:37when he says he wants to reopen coal mines?
15:40I mean, do you think that's a silly idea?
15:43I don't think we're reopening coal mines.
15:46I don't think we're onto that.
15:50I think Nigel Farage seems to have a very kind of thin grasp
15:54of the science on this stuff.
15:55I know he was talking about restarting the blast furnaces.
16:00That's not possible, apparently.
16:02Fantasy physics as well as fantasy economics from Farage.
16:05But he goes to something.
16:07Their position is we're sitting on what they call treasure,
16:10the coal under at this country.
16:12Why can't we use part of it to help with steel production?
16:16Because there are some crazy things on net zero.
16:19We're shipping in, aren't we?
16:20Yeah.
16:20Wood pellets from America to fire up power stations here.
16:23I mean, he's talked about something, I think, which is concerning.
16:27Well, it's definitely worth saying that our green energy policies
16:31need to be taken in the round.
16:32There is no point offshoring our carbon emissions.
16:35We are at the moment.
16:36But in some cases, that is happening.
16:39So what I would say is oil and gas are a crucial part of our energy mix,
16:43and they are going to be for some time to come.
16:46But I think most people in this country,
16:48when I speak to constituents on the doorstep,
16:49they say, I'm absolutely for green energy.
16:52Let's go for it.
16:53Let's go for nuclear.
16:54Let's go for wind.
16:55We're a windy island after all.
16:56Let's make the most of it, for goodness sake.
16:58Let's make sure that as much of it has been manufactured in the UK as well.
17:02Because we have fallen behind on this stuff.
17:04You know, a lot of the solar panels are coming from China
17:06because they've got so far ahead of us on this.
17:08So that's where it comes to that kind of British industrial policy
17:12that I want to see so that we're building and making things in this country
17:15good jobs so that we're ahead of the rest on green energy.
17:18So are we turning our back too quickly on the North Sea, for example?
17:21I don't know about too quickly,
17:23but what I would say is it's not just about downing tools straight away
17:27and then relying on stuff from abroad.
17:29You know, I think that's a false economy.
17:32Your background, of course, you're a police constable,
17:34formerly a sergeant and inspector.
17:36You're the head of the police now training academy.
17:40Police are worried about law and order, aren't they,
17:42in the wake of this spending review?
17:43They say there's going to be a problem here.
17:45We're keeping the streets safe.
17:46Do you worry too?
17:46Well, we've set ambitious targets as a Labour party
17:50for what we want to achieve with policing
17:52and it is going to be difficult to deliver those.
17:55So I would have liked to have seen a little bit more support for the police
17:58in that regard,
17:59but they are still getting above inflation increase in spending every year,
18:04which is encouraging.
18:05And of course, the reason why policing is in such a state
18:09is because we've actually got a really inexperienced workforce,
18:12which we've had to scramble to get back to the same levels we were at
18:15when the Conservatives took power.
18:17Of course, it was Dominic Cummings who revealed to them
18:19it was probably a bad idea to put 20,000 officers and 20% of the funding.
18:24So, yes, there's a huge amount to do on policing.
18:28I really want to back the police as a force for good
18:30and I think it's really important that we give officers the confidence
18:34to go out there, which I think has been lacking in recent years
18:37because they've been so fearful of the media backlash
18:40and from some politicians, of course.
18:42So, yes, I really want to see us back the police across the country
18:45and that's what my constituents want to.
18:47Do you worry, though, about these cuts?
18:49I mean, you did pledge as a party in government
18:54to deal crackdown on ancestral behaviour.
18:58Police are saying they're going to have a problem here.
19:00Well, it's a problem of demand in the sense that 30 years ago
19:05we weren't really dealing with domestic abuse or sexual offences.
19:08Now it's a core part of police business, as it should be.
19:11But then if you combine that with reducing the police workforce
19:15by 20,000 officers, you've got a bit of a perfect storm.
19:18And so the police now are pulled in different directions.
19:21We want the traditional neighbourhood presence.
19:24That's key.
19:25We want to deal with the high harm offences,
19:27like the ones I just mentioned.
19:28Serious violence, of course, as well in the cities.
19:30And then we also have this other area,
19:34which is the kind of non-crime stuff, which has increased over the years.
19:37Which is nuts, right?
19:38Well, I want to...
19:39Stop policing Twitter, actually.
19:40Well, that's a part of it.
19:42That's a part of it.
19:42Oh, yeah, do I have to do this to stop going after people for tweets?
19:46Well, I think police need to make sure they've got their priorities right.
19:48And I think there have been some particularly egregious examples
19:51of, you know, big overreach in that regard.
19:53And I think the police would say,
19:55well, some of our laws probably do need updating on this.
19:57They're not fit for the internet age.
19:59But it's not just that.
20:00You know, it's about mental health cases,
20:02about children missing from care homes.
20:03That's what I spent a lot of my career dealing with.
20:05That's serious.
20:06So we've got to be kind of having this discussion about...
20:10I felt sorry about the police,
20:11because when they're knocking on doors with parents over a WhatsApp group,
20:14you know, and they call a big round of press,
20:16undermines trust in the police.
20:18I think we've got to be clear.
20:19This is where I would sum it up.
20:20We've got to be clear about where we think people are acting
20:23in a way that we don't like.
20:26Can I say they're being a bit of an arse on your podcast?
20:28The word arse is acceptable.
20:29Yeah.
20:31And where that goes into what we want to be a police matter.
20:35And I think at the moment,
20:36the threshold has probably been set a little bit too low,
20:39and we're asking police to get involved
20:40with people who are being a bit of an arse,
20:42but probably don't need the police knocking at them.
20:44And stop doing that.
20:45I mean, even Keir Starmer talked about this
20:46back when he was DPP,
20:48Director of Public Prosecutions.
20:49He said people do silly tweets on a bit drunk.
20:52Let's let them delete it the next day and move on.
20:55I think there's a lot to be said for that.
20:57There's a woman being jailed,
20:58I mean, famously, of course,
20:59with some extremely,
21:01I always say inflammatory remarks on Twitter,
21:03but she regretted them,
21:04despite being put in prison for it.
21:06There's always going to be a contested discussion
21:10about where that line should be.
21:12But yeah, as I say,
21:13I think we need to make sure it's a little bit higher.
21:16Council tax looks like it's going up,
21:17maybe by 5%,
21:18in part to fund policing through the precept.
21:21That is a problem.
21:22I mean, council tax is a problem for so many people.
21:24It will be going up.
21:25And do you worry about this?
21:26I do.
21:27And I've actually been very vocal about council tax.
21:30I want to see it completely reformed.
21:33So I've got a constituency
21:35or pendle part of my constituency
21:37where 60% of the properties are band A.
21:40Band A.
21:40Band A.
21:41So the lowest amount.
21:43So she thinks that it means what?
21:44They're not very expensive, doesn't it?
21:45It means they're not very expensive.
21:46And so the cheapest housing in the country.
21:50But it also means that the local council
21:51can't raise much revenue without the overall level.
21:55I know this is quite technical,
21:56but hopefully your listeners will appreciate it.
21:59They can't raise much revenue themselves
22:00because they've got a certain housing stock.
22:03Whereas if you look at some boroughs of London,
22:06it's quite the opposite.
22:08What's your budget then?
22:09Well, my idea is that you actually make it
22:11related to the property value, what you pay.
22:13So I put something online not so long ago
22:16saying that actually my constituents
22:19are paying double what some in West London are paying
22:22when they own a £200,000 house.
22:24This house is worth over a million.
22:26That's nuts.
22:26Everyone in the House of Commons,
22:28everyone in the country knows that is nuts.
22:31But this has been allowed to happen over decades
22:34with no one wanting to make the difficult decisions on it.
22:37So I would say to the government,
22:39please, if you want to make our taxation system fairer,
22:42to reduce it for the majority of households,
22:45which this would do.
22:46Pay the money to the central parts
22:47and it gets fed, passed out by the government.
22:52Is that right?
22:52Well, I mean, the mechanics of it can be discussed.
22:56But this kind of attitude of,
22:59well, Pendle Council should be able to raise what they can
23:01on the basis of this council tax system,
23:03which they're locked into, is crazy.
23:05So let's make that a lot fairer.
23:07I don't think a lot of people in the country
23:09realise quite how...
23:10I was like, is it something a wealth tax to me, Jonathan?
23:12Is that what you're doing?
23:13Well, it's a form of wealth tax.
23:14It is.
23:15And what I would say is,
23:16we want to have as low tax as possible
23:20for ordinary people.
23:21And we've got this enormous wealth in the country.
23:25Could they pay a little bit more tax?
23:26Of course they could.
23:28You know, they've got a £1.5 million house.
23:29They're paid half...
23:30They may be asset rich in cash, Paul.
23:32You know jolly well.
23:33There will be a few of those cases
23:34and you can legislate to...
23:35How big house was it?
23:37You can legislate to allow for...
23:39There's some food out, though.
23:40Is that all that's what will happen?
23:41You can do it on the basis of when they sell the property,
23:43they then pay it or something like that.
23:46Yeah.
23:46Has the government looked at this?
23:48Not that I'm aware, but I'd like them to.
23:49Hey, they'll be tuning in to this podcast.
23:51I'm sure.
23:52Just finally, Paul, we let you go.
23:54Grooming gang scandal.
23:55You're worried about that.
23:56Why is this government not doing a national inquiry?
23:57We think there are 50 towns affected by this issues.
24:00Well, I'm looking forward to seeing
24:01what Louise Casey says on this.
24:03She's doing an assessment on the scale of it nationally.
24:05Yeah, absolutely.
24:06I think it's absolutely right
24:07that the government has asked for that
24:09and I'll be looking at what her conclusions are very closely.
24:11If she finds 50 towns,
24:13should there be a national inquiry?
24:13We need a national reckoning on this
24:16and I would say that we should be seriously thinking
24:20about whether a national inquiry is required.
24:22Let's have a look at what Louise Casey has to say.
24:25I accept that.
24:26If the scale is what Charlie Peters has found,
24:28our report on this issue,
24:3050 towns affected,
24:31and there's read across between,
24:33it looks like,
24:34because it's so sensitive
24:36with who are the perpetrators,
24:38that it's been,
24:39a blind eye has been turned by authorities
24:41and that's what's so offensive to so many people,
24:43isn't it?
24:43Yeah, absolutely.
24:44It is that idea that
24:46things have been covered up
24:47because of cultural sensitivities.
24:49We cannot have that.
24:50If we want to have trust in our...
24:51A trust in law at all?
24:52Absolutely.
24:53And it undermines,
24:54you know,
24:55the kind of cohesive communities
24:57that we want.
24:58So we need to ensure
25:00that those who are responsible
25:02are held to account
25:03and really encourage
25:04that the police
25:04are making really good progress
25:05in terms of the arrests
25:06and prosecutions.
25:07That is really good.
25:08But in terms of the system,
25:10in terms of the councils
25:11and, you know,
25:11police officers as well...
25:13And I would say
25:14it goes beyond...
25:15It's not a labour issue.
25:17It's a cultural issue
25:18in this country.
25:18It goes back 30 years,
25:19this problem,
25:20which no one has gripped it
25:22in authority, I think.
25:23Yeah.
25:24And to take the politics away from it,
25:26it's just doing right
25:27by the victims.
25:28They're often on GB News
25:29and it breaks your heart,
25:30you know.
25:31Yeah, absolutely.
25:32I mean, I would say
25:33I don't know whether
25:34going through inquiry
25:36after inquiry
25:36is necessarily
25:37what the victims
25:38have learned, maybe.
25:39But if we don't feel like
25:41we have had that cultural shift
25:43to call out these things,
25:45no matter the race,
25:46no matter the religion, etc.,
25:48then we should be considering that.
25:50And just finally,
25:51you're at GB News,
25:52Nigel Farage broadcasts here
25:53in the evenings.
25:55Does Keir Starmer
25:56get Nigel Farage?
25:57I asked him,
25:58I asked Keir Starmer,
26:00is he living rent-free
26:01in your brain?
26:02I mean,
26:03there's a concern
26:04about Farage, isn't there?
26:05Does your leader understand
26:07how to combat that?
26:10Well, I think
26:10what his electoral threat,
26:13I mean.
26:13Yeah, well, I think he does.
26:14I mean, I think
26:15if you see the way
26:17that he has quite openly said
26:19he sees reform
26:20as a big threat,
26:21then you can see
26:23that he understands
26:24that the Conservative Party
26:25really are flailing,
26:26they've got such a poor record
26:27to go on,
26:28and people want change.
26:29We know that.
26:30They want quite radical change,
26:32and they,
26:33if they don't get it,
26:33will pull the next lever
26:34that they think will deliver them.
26:35What's your advice
26:36to your leader
26:37on battling Farage?
26:38You're seeing it locally,
26:39aren't you,
26:39with Reform UK?
26:39What's your advice nationally?
26:41Well, I would say
26:42the Blue Labour position
26:43of being slightly
26:44to the left on economics,
26:45but also sensible
26:46on issues like immigration,
26:48on crime, etc.,
26:49would be very popular
26:50in the country.
26:51We need to double down on that,
26:52and I think we'll win
26:53a majority
26:53at the next election.
26:55We'll wait and see.
26:55Jonathan Hinder,
26:56thank you for joining us today
26:57on our Shopper's Political Podcast.
26:59Great to see you in the studio.
26:59Thank you for your
27:00excellent, excellent interview there.
27:01With me now is Paul Johnson,
27:08who runs the Institute
27:09for Fiscal Studies,
27:10which is the most important
27:13independent economic expert
27:15which passes judgment
27:16on any big fiscal announcement
27:18from the government
27:18the day after.
27:20Paul,
27:20welcome to
27:21Chopper's Political Podcast.
27:23For your valedictory tour
27:24of the studios,
27:25I think,
27:26because you're off soon.
27:27Yes,
27:27we're certainly the last
27:28as head of the IFS,
27:29but this will be my
27:30last spending review,
27:32last fiscal event.
27:33I'm going to be very sad
27:34come the next budget
27:35when I'm not going to be
27:36around here in Westminster
27:38commenting to everybody.
27:39And you've done a lot of them.
27:40I mean,
27:40how many years?
27:41It's 15 years worth,
27:43so probably,
27:44it must be,
27:44well,
27:44probably more than 30
27:45since we've had more
27:46than two a year
27:47at some years.
27:48I wonder what you learned
27:49over that time.
27:49So you've seen,
27:50you probably started
27:50with austerity
27:51under Jordan Johnson's board
27:52and went into spending
27:54money more willingly
27:55and debt going up
27:57under following Tory PMs.
27:59Then you've got this
28:00new iron chancellor
28:01in quotes.
28:02I mean,
28:02what do you divine
28:03a kind of streak
28:05of what they have in them
28:07that makes them chancellors,
28:09even though from
28:09different persuasions?
28:10Or are they all
28:11just a bit,
28:12what are they like?
28:13Do you see anything
28:14similar between them all?
28:16Well,
28:16they are,
28:17I mean,
28:17they have all,
28:18with the exception
28:19of quasi-quarting,
28:20talks about fiscal prudence
28:23and needing to keep
28:24fiscal rules
28:26and all those sorts
28:26of things.
28:28They've all been
28:29laxer in reality
28:31than they have said
28:33that they would be.
28:34I mean,
28:34even George Osborne,
28:36I perfectly sensibly
28:37sort of pushed off
28:38the point at which
28:39he got to budget balance
28:40as things didn't go
28:41as well as he hoped.
28:43Although he really,
28:44you know,
28:45he was the one
28:45where you could really say
28:46this is what he was
28:48trying to achieve.
28:48He was really pushing
28:49spending down
28:50the deficit,
28:52wasn't it?
28:52It's hard to get
28:53that little acid
28:54which went towards.
28:56I mean,
28:56obviously we're speaking
28:58in the week
28:59of the spending interview.
29:00How worried are you
29:01about the UK economy
29:02as things stand?
29:04Well,
29:04I've been worried
29:05for a long time.
29:06I mean,
29:07the truth is
29:08this has been
29:08the worst
29:09getting on
29:10for 20 years now
29:11that we've had
29:12for certainly
29:14more than a century
29:15in terms of
29:16persistent lack
29:18of economic growth
29:19and,
29:21well,
29:21what does economic
29:21growth matter?
29:22Well,
29:23the same time
29:24we've had
29:24the worst period
29:25for earnings growth
29:26as far as we can tell
29:28since,
29:29well,
29:30since Napoleon
29:30was trying to,
29:31you know,
29:31come over.
29:33Nearly 20 years now
29:35with barely any growth
29:37in real average earnings.
29:40So,
29:40I mean,
29:40I think we've been
29:41worried for a long time
29:42and this is,
29:44I mean,
29:44we are still to some extent
29:45living in the shadow
29:46of the financial crisis
29:48of 2008,
29:492009.
29:50So,
29:51pre-financial crisis
29:52was the last time
29:53we've had it pretty good here
29:54and since then
29:55it's been pretty grim.
29:56I think that's,
29:57sadly,
29:58I mean,
29:58obviously it differs
29:59for different people
30:00and some people
30:00have had it absolutely fine
30:01over the last period
30:02and some people
30:03have had it grim
30:03for a long period.
30:04Assocals have gone up
30:05over their homes
30:05and the like.
30:06Yeah,
30:06but again,
30:07actually,
30:08if you look back
30:09more over that period
30:10pre-financial crisis
30:11but they carried on
30:12post that period.
30:14So,
30:15you know,
30:15one of the consequences
30:16of this,
30:16if you don't have
30:16much earnings growth
30:17and you do have
30:19asset growth
30:20then one group
30:21have done better
30:22than others
30:22and that group
30:23that's done relatively well
30:24is the older group
30:26who had some wealth
30:2715,
30:2820 years ago.
30:29And that's pension
30:30and they're being protected
30:30increasingly by the
30:31leaders of the money.
30:33Well,
30:33as we've seen
30:34with the winter fuel payment
30:35you just can't ever
30:36take anything from them.
30:37No.
30:38I mean,
30:38what do you make about it?
30:39I mean,
30:39does it make sense to you?
30:40Around the ages,
30:4135,000,
30:42if you have two earners
30:43in the same house
30:44on 34,000,
30:46it goes back
30:46to the child benefit
30:47change,
30:48doesn't it,
30:48I think?
30:48Yeah,
30:49so,
30:49I mean,
30:49we've got this
30:50very old situation
30:51now where
30:52if you've got
30:53two pensioners
30:54each with income
30:55of 34,000,
30:55they get 200 pounds.
30:58It's your,
30:59100 pound each,
31:00200 pounds in total.
31:02If you've got
31:03one who might have
31:04an income of,
31:05you know,
31:05very,
31:06very high income,
31:07100,000,
31:07200,000 pounds,
31:08that has a partner
31:11with 30,000,
31:13they'll still get 100 pounds,
31:15but if you've got
31:15two of you
31:15with 36,000 pounds
31:17each,
31:17you get nothing at all.
31:18So it's a very,
31:19it's a very sort of complex,
31:21you know,
31:22we've ended up
31:23with this horrible
31:24compromise
31:25from a government
31:26which clearly wanted
31:27to get rid
31:28of the payment
31:29altogether,
31:30in my view,
31:31and this probably
31:31won't make you be popular
31:32with your listeners,
31:33perfectly sensibly.
31:34I mean,
31:35this is an absurd payment,
31:36but we've seen
31:38Gordon Brown brought in,
31:40didn't he,
31:40in response to
31:41another crisis.
31:42I mean,
31:42who is to blame
31:43for this in the end?
31:44Actually,
31:44it's Gordon Brown
31:45bringing it in
31:4625 years ago
31:48or so.
31:49I mean,
31:50what we discover is
31:50as soon as you bring
31:52something like that in,
31:53whether it's
31:54a benefit for pensioners
31:56or whether it's
31:56a tax break
31:57or whether it's
31:58a new service
31:59like childcare,
32:01you basically
32:01can't ever take it away.
32:03So we've had 20 years
32:04of no growth
32:05as far as you're saying.
32:07Not quite none.
32:08Not quite anemic,
32:10we've been in a world,
32:11perhaps around 1%,
32:122%.
32:12Not a lot then
32:13compared to other countries.
32:14Do you bear in the Tories
32:15or Labour?
32:17Everyone's got their own answers,
32:18haven't they?
32:19Well,
32:20what's the problem
32:20in this country?
32:21Part of this
32:23is that we had
32:25a big financial sector,
32:27so the fiscal,
32:29the financial crisis
32:30hit us harder
32:31than it did
32:32a lot of other countries.
32:34We've also had
32:35a long period
32:37of poor policy making,
32:39whether it's
32:39a hopeless tax system
32:41or incredibly
32:41bad planning systems,
32:43it's very hard
32:44to build things,
32:45education system
32:46that doesn't work
32:47very well
32:48for people
32:48who don't go
32:48on to university
32:49a lot,
32:50some people
32:50who do,
32:52a lack of investment
32:53in infrastructure
32:53and building things.
32:55So there's a whole
32:55series of things
32:56which have been true
32:56over a period of time
32:58under both governments.
33:01I mean,
33:02it is true to say
33:03that the economy
33:03slowed again
33:04after the Brexit vote.
33:08And that was bad
33:08for the country,
33:09Brexit,
33:10as far as you're concerned?
33:10In terms of the economic impact,
33:12I mean,
33:12you can see that
33:13in the big reduction
33:15actually over the last few years
33:16in numbers of firms
33:17that are trading,
33:18particularly trading
33:19with the European Union,
33:21and you can see it
33:22in what happened
33:22to the pound
33:23and what happened
33:23to inflation
33:24in the period
33:25after the Brexit referendum.
33:26Now,
33:26I think the other thing
33:27that's worth saying,
33:27it's actually very hard
33:28to tell what is
33:29the effect of Brexit
33:30and what is the effect
33:32of the political chaos
33:33that ensues.
33:34I think it's really
33:35interesting to ask
33:35the question,
33:36suppose Remain
33:37had won 52-48,
33:39would we have had
33:40a period of political calm
33:42in which everything
33:43was going well?
33:44And I think the answer
33:45is no.
33:46So actually,
33:47it may well have been
33:48the fact that
33:49we were always going to have
33:50a really difficult period
33:52after,
33:53if we were going to have
33:53a referendum
33:54and the result
33:54was going to be close.
33:55I think we were always
33:56up for a difficult period
33:58both politically
33:59and then economically
34:00because bad politics
34:01actually makes
34:02for bad economics.
34:04So moving to the present
34:05then with Labour,
34:06we're seeing it impacts
34:07on all of their policies.
34:08The ONS figures today
34:09showing maybe staff numbers
34:11cut by 140,000
34:13in April and May.
34:14I think some of those
34:14figures are estimated.
34:16Do you blame
34:16the national insurance
34:17increase and the
34:18minimum wage hike?
34:20They've almost certainly
34:20played a role.
34:21It's very difficult to,
34:23first of all,
34:24as you say,
34:24those numbers are uncertain.
34:26May certainly are uncertain.
34:27And there's lots of uncertainty
34:28around a lot of ONS figures.
34:30At the moment.
34:31And secondly,
34:32lots of things are going on.
34:33But we do know that,
34:35I mean,
34:35where have jobs,
34:38where have we got fewer jobs?
34:39Well, it's in retail
34:39and hospitality.
34:40Which of the sectors
34:41have been hardest hit
34:42by the national insurance
34:42and minimum wage changes?
34:44It's retail and hospitality.
34:46And we do know
34:47it's been made
34:47significantly more expensive
34:49to employ people
34:51on relatively low earnings.
34:53So it will have played
34:54a role for sure.
34:55And that is a risk
34:57that we've taken
34:58with those policies.
35:00One of the big,
35:01I think,
35:01issues you've always talked about
35:02certainly in your social media messaging
35:04is a lack of honesty
35:05about the challenges we face.
35:07And you were particularly critical
35:08when you drew
35:09on the election campaign.
35:10Yes.
35:10I mean,
35:10I think that,
35:11I mean,
35:11all of the parties,
35:11all parties were not honest
35:15about the options.
35:16I mean,
35:16Conservatives and Labour
35:17were both saying
35:18no spending cuts
35:20and no tax rises,
35:21effectively.
35:21I mean,
35:22they had some very small ones
35:23in there.
35:24Well,
35:24we've seen immediately
35:25that Labour has come out
35:27with some very big tax rises
35:29in order to fund spending increases
35:31that always look very likely
35:32under them.
35:33And I think the Conservatives
35:34probably would have had
35:36some tax rises there.
35:37And if they hadn't,
35:37they would have had to have had
35:38some significant spending cuts.
35:40It's also worth saying
35:41that the Greens on the one hand
35:43and Reform on the other
35:44were significantly less honest
35:47about the trade-offs.
35:49I mean,
35:49we had the Greens suggesting,
35:51I can't remember,
35:52$200 billion of additional spending
35:53and vast additional borrowing.
35:56And you had Reform suggesting
35:57vast tax cuts
35:59paid for by,
36:00quote,
36:00efficiency changes.
36:02So,
36:02you know,
36:03the further from the big parties
36:04you've got,
36:05the sort of worse.
36:06They're all the same.
36:08And the losers might be the voters.
36:09They don't get a fair debate
36:11on the policies themselves.
36:13Yeah,
36:13I mean,
36:14so you don't,
36:14you didn't get a clear,
36:16I mean,
36:16you look to the,
36:18I mean,
36:18you kind of know,
36:19broadly speaking,
36:19which direction Labour's
36:20going to go in relative
36:21to the Conservatives.
36:23Well,
36:23you might think you do,
36:24but you certainly didn't get
36:25a clear sense of the options.
36:28I think politicians would say,
36:30yeah,
36:30but if we tell the voters the truth,
36:32they ain't going to vote for us.
36:33I mean,
36:33the politicians' view is
36:34it's all the voters
36:35are on their way around.
36:36Race to the bottom,
36:37possibly.
36:38We're speaking ahead
36:38of the spending review this week.
36:40So with all those caveats,
36:42what do you want to see in it?
36:43Well,
36:43we know what the total spending numbers
36:45are going to be.
36:46This is not,
36:46I think it's really important
36:47to be clear,
36:48this is not a moment
36:49when Rachel Reeves is saying,
36:51I've got some more money to spend.
36:53She's taking the budget
36:54she gave herself
36:55back in the autumn
36:56and distributing it.
36:58And we know that
36:59the big winner,
37:01as usual,
37:01will be the health service.
37:02and that means
37:04that there's nothing
37:06on average
37:06for the rest
37:08of government departments.
37:10So by the time
37:12people are listening to this,
37:13they'll know
37:13who the relative winners
37:14and losers are.
37:16And I fear
37:17that the losers
37:18will be the same group
37:20on average
37:20that are always losers,
37:21the sort of so-called
37:22unprotected departments.
37:24So often local government,
37:26often environment,
37:27often home office
37:28and justice.
37:29Now within that,
37:30it looks like the police
37:31might get protected
37:32and schools and so on
37:33might get protected.
37:34But to the extent
37:35that they're all protected,
37:36then the cuts elsewhere
37:37are bigger.
37:38Yes.
37:38The NHS,
37:39I mean,
37:40we've been talking
37:40for a lot,
37:41one of the reforms policies
37:42is trying to make it
37:43into a different model
37:44altogether.
37:45Maybe you pay into it.
37:46Do you think it's time
37:46for a more honest chat
37:47about the NHS?
37:48I think it is time
37:49for a more honest discussion.
37:50I mean,
37:51it's interesting.
37:52It's really,
37:53I mean,
37:53it's not that easy
37:54to have a sensible conversation
37:56about pensions here,
37:57but it's easier.
37:58So we've got increases
37:59in pensions,
37:59and age
38:00and we talk about
38:00different ways
38:01in which we increase
38:02the pension.
38:02Actually,
38:03the coalition government
38:04reformed the state pensions
38:05on.
38:05In many other countries,
38:06you can't have
38:07a sensible conversation
38:08about pensions.
38:09In France,
38:10you can't.
38:10In France,
38:11they strike in France.
38:11Exactly.
38:12So by contrast,
38:14in many other countries,
38:15you can have
38:16a much more open
38:17conversation about health,
38:18which we just can't
38:19have here.
38:21Why is that?
38:22Well,
38:23that's an interesting,
38:24big question.
38:25Health spending
38:26is by far
38:27the biggest thing
38:28the government does
38:28and it's a much
38:29bigger fraction
38:30of total spending
38:31than it was
38:3120 years ago.
38:33It just carries on
38:34getting bigger and bigger.
38:35I think part of the reason
38:36is the shared history
38:38of the NHS
38:39being founded
38:40back in the 1940s.
38:42It's got a halo
38:43that we polish all the time.
38:44It has a halo
38:45that we polish,
38:46but it's really odd
38:47when you talk,
38:47when you do
38:48sort of surveys
38:49of people,
38:49they say,
38:49yes,
38:50we really love
38:51the NHS.
38:51and then you ask
38:52them about
38:52their experiences
38:54and they tend
38:56to be rather less,
38:57often less positive.
38:58Is it a brutal truth
38:59as a two-tier health service?
39:01Yes,
39:01we will pay
39:01anything in the NHS
39:02and if you can,
39:03you pay private health care
39:04on top of that.
39:05That's what a lot of people
39:06do,
39:06don't they,
39:06in work?
39:07Certainly.
39:07So an increasing
39:09number of employers
39:10provide that
39:11as a benefit.
39:12I think one of the,
39:15I think one of my worries
39:16is that
39:17we risk kind of
39:20by accident
39:20ending up in a world
39:22in which
39:22you have a health service
39:24for most people
39:25and then an increasing
39:26minority are paying
39:27for their own
39:27rather than a serious
39:29conversation about
39:30where we want to end up
39:31and whether,
39:32for example,
39:32in Australia,
39:34higher income people
39:35don't quite have to
39:38buy additional insurance
39:39but they're penalising
39:40the tax system
39:41if they don't.
39:42So they just accept
39:43that there is,
39:44if you're better off,
39:45you don't get nothing
39:46from the health service
39:47but if you put additional in
39:49and you see that
39:50in many other countries
39:51it shouldn't be,
39:54I'm not saying it's the right
39:55thing or the wrong thing
39:55but it shouldn't be
39:56beyond the bounds
39:57of political debate
39:57in the way that it is.
40:00Of course,
40:00national insurance
40:01used to be tied,
40:02didn't it,
40:02to the state pension,
40:03didn't it?
40:04Well,
40:04national insurance
40:05when it was first introduced,
40:08national insurance
40:08was paid at a,
40:09you paid a flat rate.
40:11That's right.
40:11That's why it was called
40:12the stamp.
40:12You actually got a stamp
40:13on your pay packet
40:15to say that you paid it
40:16and that gave you
40:17rights to unemployment
40:19benefit on the state pension
40:20and so on.
40:21Over time,
40:22that link has been lost.
40:24I mean,
40:24it's now,
40:24as you know,
40:25fully earnings related
40:26and there is literally
40:28no relationship
40:28between the national
40:29insurance you pay
40:30and anything.
40:32It's just another tax.
40:33It's not quite.
40:35Is the state pensions
40:36sustainable
40:36in its current form?
40:38I was with the PM today
40:39in Suffolk.
40:40He says we are banking,
40:42we're going to guarantee
40:42the triple lock
40:43on the pensions.
40:45Is that sustainable
40:45long term?
40:46I mean,
40:46it's worth just setting up
40:47the state pension
40:48as we now have it
40:48is actually pretty sensible.
40:50It's not very generous.
40:52It's whatever it is,
40:53getting over £12,000
40:54a year.
40:55That's less than
40:55state pensions
40:56in most countries,
40:57but we have a private
40:58system on top
41:00and relative to
41:01most European countries
41:02we'll be spending
41:02a lot less
41:03on our state pension.
41:04In fact,
41:05less than the US
41:06oddly enough.
41:08And state pension
41:09ages are rising
41:10which makes it
41:11more sustainable.
41:12But if you don't
41:14continue to increase
41:15the pension age
41:16and you do continue
41:18with the triple lock
41:19then it will take
41:20a bigger and bigger
41:20fraction of
41:22the total economy.
41:24So we've got some
41:24choices there
41:25about how we increase it
41:26and at what age
41:27we start to
41:28take it.
41:29And it's going up
41:30to 67 over the next
41:31couple of years
41:33the state pension age
41:33this government
41:34now then has to
41:35make a choice
41:35about does it
41:36go up to 68
41:37in the late 2030s
41:39or do they wait
41:40until the 2040s
41:41to do that?
41:42I mean,
41:42my view is they
41:43should do it
41:43in the late 2030s.
41:46Get on with it.
41:46Get on with it.
41:48When the state
41:49pension age
41:50was set at 65
41:51a huge fraction
41:53of people
41:53didn't even make
41:54it to 65.
41:55Now at age 65
41:56you've got a life
41:57expectancy
41:58I can't remember
41:59exactly what
42:00but around
42:00about another
42:0120 years
42:02so this is
42:03a very different
42:03system
42:04even compared
42:06with 1970
42:06life expectancy
42:07is written
42:08by something
42:08like 10 years
42:10and the state
42:11pension age
42:11has gone up
42:12by one so far
42:13for men
42:14and more than
42:14that of course
42:15for women.
42:15Should we mean
42:16test the state
42:17pension?
42:17I don't think
42:18so.
42:18I don't think
42:18there's a case
42:19for me testing
42:19the state
42:20pension.
42:20I think it's
42:20actually really
42:21helpful for
42:22everyone to have
42:22that basic
42:23amount to build
42:24on.
42:25So if you mean
42:26test the state
42:26pension then that
42:27leads to a lot
42:28of people
42:28thinking well it's
42:29not much pointly
42:30saving so I
42:31think it's really
42:32helpful to have
42:33that at something
42:34like probably the
42:35current level
42:36and keep it at
42:36that level relative
42:37to earnings and
42:38then people have
42:39something to build
42:39on.
42:40And the lifetime
42:41allowance should
42:41that be brought
42:42back has been
42:42got rid of?
42:44For the amount
42:45you can put into
42:46a pension before
42:47you start.
42:48Well it's complex
42:51to bring that
42:52back.
42:53I think there is
42:53a case for having
42:54a maximum that
42:56you have as a
42:58tax advantage
42:59total.
43:01What I don't
43:02think there's a
43:02case for which
43:03we have at the
43:04moment is a
43:04maximum what you
43:05can put in in
43:06any one year.
43:07So I think
43:07as usual governments
43:09have got it the
43:09wrong way around.
43:10So if I haven't
43:11done a lot of
43:11money in one
43:12year why can't I
43:13put it all in
43:14one go?
43:17Whereas at the
43:17moment the amount
43:18I can put in is
43:19constrained in any
43:20year and if I'm a
43:21very high earner it's
43:22a straight up very
43:23small amount but
43:25I can have as
43:25much as I like as
43:26long as I put it
43:27in over the right
43:29period of time.
43:29So I would have
43:32it exactly the
43:32other way around
43:33but as much as
43:33you'd like in any
43:34year and then you
43:35might want to decide
43:36on a cap to the
43:37total.
43:38All the talk
43:38tomorrow will be
43:39about how you're
43:40paying for measures
43:41announced in the
43:42spending review.
43:44Notably we don't
43:44know how they're
43:44going to spend or
43:45fund this with the
43:47winter fuel allowance
43:48over a billion
43:49pounds.
43:50So this autumn
43:51you're expecting tax
43:51rises to go up?
43:52When you're in
43:53academia they'll
43:54watch you from
43:54afar you'll be
43:55watching with
43:56interest.
43:57I'll certainly be
43:57watching with
43:58interest.
43:59Look what's going
44:00to determine what
44:01happens in the
44:01autumn budget is
44:02what happens to
44:03the forecasts.
44:05Now I think
44:06there's a decent
44:08chance I'm afraid
44:09that the forecasts
44:10for the economy
44:11and therefore for
44:12borrowing will get
44:14worse than they
44:15were in the
44:16spring.
44:17Partly because
44:17the Office of
44:18Budget Responsibility
44:18was actually
44:19remarkably optimistic
44:20in the spring.
44:21partly because
44:22some things
44:23have got worse
44:24so President
44:25Trump's tariffs
44:26and the uncertainty
44:27around that has
44:28slowed world
44:29economic growth
44:30and that will have
44:30an impact on the
44:32UK.
44:32Interest rates on
44:33government debt
44:34expected interest
44:35rates are higher
44:35so that's going to
44:36squeeze the amount
44:37of headroom the
44:38Chancellor has and
44:39she left herself
44:40with almost none.
44:41So I think there
44:42is I'm afraid
44:43probably a better
44:44than 50-50 shot
44:45that will get some
44:46more tax rises in
44:47the autumn.
44:47Oh dear,
44:48where?
44:49Well that I don't
44:50know.
44:50Where's the
44:51soft?
44:51I mean,
44:52goodness gracious.
44:53I mean,
44:53but that
44:53you heard us
44:54tax.
44:54Well,
44:54coming back to
44:55your pensions
44:55question,
44:56I think
44:56every time
45:00the Treasury
45:01needs to raise
45:03some money,
45:04there's a big
45:04sort of soft
45:05target or maybe
45:06a soft target
45:07which is to
45:07maybe restrict
45:09the rate of
45:10relief that you
45:10get when you
45:11put money in,
45:12maybe to
45:12restrict the
45:12lump sum,
45:14maybe as you
45:14say to restrict
45:15the total amount
45:15that can go into
45:16a pension pot.
45:18I think it's
45:19just terrible
45:20that we have
45:21this uncertainty
45:22in the run-up
45:23to these fiscal
45:24events.
45:24We know.
45:25Every year.
45:26Yeah,
45:26we know in the
45:28run-up to last
45:28budget that
45:29probably tens
45:30of thousands
45:30of people
45:31changed their
45:32budget,
45:32they took their
45:33money out
45:33because they
45:33were worried
45:34about changes.
45:35We always thought
45:35CGC was a big
45:36thing.
45:36They thought,
45:38and so everyone
45:40breathes a sigh
45:41of relief when
45:41she didn't do
45:42anything,
45:42but she didn't
45:43say anything
45:43at all about
45:44the future.
45:44Now,
45:45if there's one
45:45bit of the
45:46tax system
45:46that needs
45:47to be
45:47consistent
45:47and certain,
45:49it's pensions.
45:50This is a 60,
45:5170-year thing
45:52from the age
45:53of 20
45:53to the end
45:54of your
45:55retirement.
45:56And the last
45:57government did
45:58this all over
45:58the place.
45:59It went up
45:59and down
45:59and round
46:00and round.
46:00Nobody knew
46:01where they
46:01were.
46:02How can you
46:03plan anything
46:05where every
46:06single fiscal
46:06event you don't
46:07know what's
46:07going to happen
46:07and then half
46:08of them,
46:08they change
46:09it?
46:09It's a
46:09credo curve
46:10and Paul
46:10Johnson.
46:11Absolutely.
46:11Sorry,
46:11I'm getting
46:12too excited.
46:12I love it.
46:12No,
46:13it's good.
46:14Just very
46:14quickly,
46:14wealth taxes,
46:15are you against
46:16those?
46:17Not against,
46:18but what's it?
46:19They're very hard
46:19to them.
46:21People have
46:22different things
46:23in mind.
46:23Capital tax
46:24and new
46:24battle,
46:24for example.
46:25So people
46:26have different
46:26things in mind.
46:27So some
46:27people are
46:28thinking,
46:29there are
46:29people that
46:29are more
46:30than 10
46:30million quid
46:31knocking around
46:32and we
46:32want to take
46:33money from
46:33them every
46:34year.
46:34There are
46:35other people
46:35who are
46:35thinking maybe
46:36a one-off
46:37tax on
46:38everybody and
46:39then, as you
46:40say, it might
46:40be an increase
46:41in the top
46:41rate of the
46:42council tax.
46:43So council
46:44tax, for
46:45example, is
46:45ripe for
46:46reform and
46:47we're still
46:47being taxed
46:48on the value
46:48of our
46:48properties in
46:491990 in
46:51a regressive
46:53way in the
46:53sense that the
46:54more valuable
46:54your property,
46:55the lower the
46:56fraction of that
46:57value you pay.
46:58So there's
46:59certainly scope to
47:00make that a lot
47:01better.
47:02Better but
47:03more expensive.
47:04Or fair, you
47:05mean, don't you?
47:05Fairer.
47:07More expensive
47:07if you've got an
47:08expensive property.
47:09Less expensive
47:09if you've got a
47:10less expensive
47:10property.
47:11At the moment,
47:12we're in this
47:12mad situation
47:13in which a
47:14three-bed
47:14semi in
47:15Blackpool pays
47:16the same
47:16council tax
47:16as Buckingham
47:17Palace.
47:17Now, that's
47:18insane.
47:18That's insane.
47:20So, you
47:21know, some
47:22reform is
47:22needed, I
47:23would say.
47:24So there's
47:25the broader
47:25wealth taxes.
47:26You really
47:27need to talk
47:27to a lawyer
47:28more than
47:29an economist.
47:29What you see
47:33around the
47:34world is that
47:34they don't
47:35tend to work
47:36because if you
47:37are genuinely
47:37wealthy, then
47:39you can pay a
47:42lot of money
47:42to lawyers.
47:42corporate
47:43structure,
47:44company
47:44structure.
47:45You find
47:47ways to get
47:48around it.
47:49One of the
47:49reasons the
47:50inheritance tax
47:50is pretty
47:51unpopular is
47:52that people
47:52with, say,
47:53two or three
47:53million pounds
47:54see they're
47:55paying a
47:55higher rate
47:56of tax
47:56than people
47:56with 10
47:57or 20
47:57million pounds.
47:58You see that
47:58in the statistics.
47:59It's absolutely
47:59true.
47:59They do pay
48:00more because
48:00if you've got
48:01lots of
48:01money, it's
48:02much easier
48:03to find ways
48:03around it.
48:03And where's
48:04that point
48:04when people
48:05start to pay
48:05money for
48:06advisors to
48:06avoid this
48:07tax?
48:07There's a
48:07point at
48:07which you
48:08just pull up
48:09with your
48:09lot,
48:12when you've
48:13got significant
48:14amounts of
48:14wealth beyond
48:15your house,
48:16it's pretty
48:17hard to avoid.
48:18If you've got
48:18an owner-occupied
48:19house, even
48:20if it's worth
48:20two or three
48:21million, it's
48:22very hard to
48:23avoid the
48:23inheritance tax
48:24on that.
48:24If you've got
48:24two or three
48:24million in the
48:25bank, much
48:26easier.
48:26There was a
48:27treasury paper
48:27that I remember
48:29finding back
48:30in 2013-12
48:32when George
48:34Osborne
48:34axed the top
48:35rate of income
48:36taxes of 50%.
48:37They found that
48:3748.5% is the
48:39point at which...
48:40That was a
48:40guesstimate.
48:41Do you remember
48:42this number?
48:42The point at
48:43which people
48:43start, right,
48:44I'm going to
48:44get the
48:44advisor in and
48:45avoid a lot
48:46more than you
48:46do.
48:47There was a
48:48view that's
48:49where that is
48:50there.
48:50That's obviously
48:51not that
48:51precise.
48:53But the
48:53estimate, and
48:54there's a lot
48:55of uncertainty
48:55about this,
48:56the Office of
48:57Budget
48:57Responsibility,
48:58the In-and-down
48:58Revenue or
48:59HMRC estimated
49:01that moving
49:02from 50% to
49:0245% wouldn't
49:03lose you much
49:04rest.
49:04You're now
49:05very hard to
49:06tell, but it's
49:07probably somewhere
49:07around there.
49:08Yes.
49:09And just
49:09finally, the
49:10two-child benefit
49:10cap, you see
49:11that?
49:11Do you
49:12being removed?
49:13I mean, there's
49:13pressure politically,
49:14I guess, as I
49:15live your
49:15purview politics
49:16in a sense.
49:17There's clearly a
49:18lot of pressure.
49:19There's clearly a
49:20lot of pressure
49:21to changes.
49:22I mean, it is a
49:25policy which, if
49:26you want to
49:27reduce child
49:28poverty, then
49:29that's the most
49:29cost-effective
49:30immediate way of
49:32doing it, but it
49:33does cost $3
49:33billion a year
49:36to do.
49:37And, of course,
49:37some people
49:38reasonably think,
49:38well, if very
49:41low-income people
49:42get their children
49:43paid for, what
49:44about me?
49:44If I'm on
49:45average earnings,
49:46I want to have
49:47it.
49:47That's the very
49:47debate happening
49:48in number 10
49:49right now, as
49:49far as I know.
49:50Yeah, and I
49:52suppose the
49:52political problem
49:53here is they
49:54back down on
49:55winter fuel
49:55payments, if
49:56they then back
49:57down on the
49:58two-child limit,
50:00it looks like
50:01they're easily
50:02pushed around,
50:02doesn't it?
50:03Well, Paul
50:03Johnson, I think
50:04you deserve your
50:04break from all
50:05this parsing the
50:06government's work,
50:07you'll be off to
50:08your academic
50:09climbs, you'll be
50:11probably writing
50:11some reports of
50:12the government
50:12there, will you?
50:13I don't know, I
50:14might have annoyed
50:15them too much for
50:15them to ask me to
50:16write any reports,
50:17but I hope that I
50:18will still stay
50:19involved in the
50:20real world as
50:21well.
50:21Well, good.
50:21Look, Paul
50:22Johnson from the
50:22IFS, the
50:23outgoing head of
50:24the IFS this
50:25summer, thank you
50:25for joining us on
50:26Chopper's
50:27political podcast,
50:27thank you.
50:28That was Paul
50:34Johnson speaking
50:35to me earlier
50:35this week, and
50:36thank you, of
50:37course, to my
50:37guest, Jonathan
50:38Hinder.
50:39I tweet at
50:40Crypt of Hope
50:40on X, what's
50:41your Twitter
50:42account, Jonathan?
50:43It's Jonathan
50:44underscore Hinder.
50:45There we are, so
50:46you can text him
50:46and message him
50:47on what you
50:47think he said
50:48about all
50:49sorts of things
50:49on this podcast.
50:50Email me,
50:50chopper at
50:51gbnews.uk,
50:53don't email
50:53Jonathan Hinder
50:54unless you have
50:54to.
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51:05Thanks to the
51:05great team of
51:06GB News colleagues
51:06behind the
51:07podcast, Mick
51:08Booker and
51:08Jeff Marsh.
51:10They are back
51:11at Basecamp
51:12in Paddington
51:12and the
51:13podcast,
51:14Worker Bees
51:15buzzing around
51:15the studio
51:16here, Rebecca
51:17Newns and
51:17George McMillan.
51:19And most
51:19importantly of
51:20all, thank
51:20you again for
51:21listening.
51:21If you want
51:22more chopper
51:22in your life
51:23and they do,
51:24do catch me
51:24during the week
51:25on GB News
51:26with my latest
51:27political updates
51:27and stories
51:28we break
51:29hourly on
51:30our channel
51:30and keep
51:31up to date
51:31with our
51:31best reporting
51:32on GB News
51:33dot com.
51:34But until
51:34next time,
51:35from Johnson
51:35and me,
51:36cheerio!
51:36and have a
51:44good one.
51:45Peace!
51:45Thank you!
51:46Peace!
51:46Peace!
51:46Peace!
51:47Peace!
51:47Peace!
51:47Peace!
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